Heavy Police Presence For Tomorrow's Pad Rally

[Yoshitaka]

http://www.examiner.com/x-26647-Asia-Trave...in-rally-by-PAD

New anti-Thaksin rally by PAD: Tourists should check political situation before travel to Thailand

Things look set to heat up in Thailand again, with a large anti-Thaksin demonstration in Bangkok just being announced by the PAD (People's Alliance for Democracy). According to the Bxxxxxx Pxxx, the PAD demonstration will be held on Sunday November 15th starting at 4pm at Sanam Luang. Sanam Luang is the large field outside the Grand Palace and Wat Phra Kaew so, tourists in Bangkok at this time would be well advised to stay away from the area.

For those who don't remember, the last time the PAD started to demonstrate in Bangkok, it culminated with several large rallies where violence erupted, plus the PAD take over of Suvarnabhumi Airport in Bangkok and the closing of Thailand's airports for over a week. More than 300,000 foreign tourists were stranded in Thailand, with no means of leaving the country. Even though this had an enormously damaging effect on the Thai economy, particularly the Thai tourist industry, the PAD has shown no remorse or ever apologized for their actions. This leaves many people believing it could easily happen again.

Sunday's demonstration by the PAD is in response to an interview with ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra with The Times, a British newspaper. In it, it's alleged Thaksin made comments negative to the royal family of Thailand, although Thaksin has vehemently denied it and announced he will be filing a lawsuit against The Times newspaper for defamation.

The majority of Thais support Thaksin and want him back in office, with the minority being the Bangkok elite, who support the PAD. With money, of course, comes power and most poorer Thais believe the PAD is also controlling the government of Abhisit Vejjajiva, making him little more than a puppet Prime Minister. Evidence for this, in their eyes, is the fact that the government has gone after leaders of the 'Red Shirts' (the pro-Thaksin movement), who held massive demonstrations in Bangkok over this year's Songkran holiday but have yet to file charges against PAD members, even though they caused so much damage to Thailand's economy.

Tourists would do well to reassess or cancel plans to visit Thailand over the next few weeks as, hour by hour, the situation in Bangkok is getting uglier. In the past, when the PAD comes out in force, the 'Red Shirts' or the United Front For Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) usually follow behind. With political tensions running high, both the US and UK embassies in Bangkok are warning tourists to watch the situation carefully and stay away from any areas where violence may erupt.

This latest situation is going to further damage Thailand's already damaged tourist industry, with some estimates showing tourism is down 60% from last year. As tourism is a vital part of Thailand's economy, it does not bode well for the economic stability of the country or the stability of the present government.

Edited November 14, 2009 by Yoshitaka

[hammered]

I dont see the PAD as having the backing or alliances it had back in airport days, so its ability to cause problems is far more limited. Plus try organising a big rally in a few days. That isnt easy. And how much money do the PAD currently have on hand?

The PAD though have always been quite inventive with their strategies so I guess I could be surprised.

[animatic]

No implementation of the security act for the yellows only for the reds.

The yellows will feel left out, or does it indicate some sort of bias- surely not.

The yellows don't try to blow up gas trucks or shoot villagers.

That will be a peaceful demonstration not intended to topple the government

Um have you forgotten what happen when the PAD went to protest at the Cambodian/Thai Temple (can't remember how to spell it)

Not at all, there was a loud tussle and people were injured,

but no threats of mass murder or blowing up a whole neighbor hood a la Songkran.

[hammered]

If I was involved with the PAD I would recommend they do everything in they can to ensure a peaceful protest is the agenda for everybody who attends.

The situation is ripe for exploitation from shadier movements.

Very true

[Scott]

I am most certainly not a fan of the PAD, however, that said, the chances of violence or chaos, based solely on their previous anticis is probably small. For whatever reason, they are reasonably well organized and know their way around the city. BKK is their home turf and even a dog doesn't crap on his own doorstep.

The reds--and this topic isn't about them--were not on home turf and they certainly had no problem pooping on everyone's doorstep. Similar to what happened when the PAD headed out into the hinterlands.

So, let's try and discuss the topic. It would be helpful to know more about who is organizing it (main leader), their agenda, etc. We have some very reasonable and well-informed posters who can contribute a great deal to this.

Monday will be interesting to read the posts, hopefully, after they have gone home and all is OK.

[Thai at Heart]

I dont see the PAD as having the backing or alliances it had back in airport days, so its ability to cause problems is far more limited. Plus try organising a big rally in a few days. That isnt easy. And how much money do the PAD currently have on hand?

The PAD though have always been quite inventive with their strategies so I guess I could be surprised.

I think the very fact that they don't appear to have the significant backing they had before might encourage them to do something to get some more attention for their protest.

I sincerely hope not, and I hope they don't use their imaginations at all. Just sit in the park, and then go home will be fine thank you very much.

[TAWP]

I would hope that the hole thing of then feeling like the might not have the peoples full backing will make them not do something crazy. And they also rather have the democrats than the PPP in power...so...they don't want to rock the boat too much, until their party is in the parlament.

[awd]

The problem with the PAD rally is that they have already motivated the blue-blooded, rich, right-wing crowd who already own the govt. The PAD really has no one else to motivate. Sure they have financial, military and media backing; but there is really no more public support to be had. ASTV is already playing to 100% of its potential audience.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

So, let's try and discuss the topic. It would be helpful to know more about who is organizing it (main leader), their agenda, etc. We have some very reasonable and well-informed posters who can contribute a great deal to this.

Monday will be interesting to read the posts, hopefully, after they have gone home and all is OK.

I completely agree and I expect the same. Currently they have nothing to gain by making a mess.

[Stumbo]

No implementation of the security act for the yellows only for the reds.

The yellows will feel left out, or does it indicate some sort of bias- surely not.

The Yellow protests are in general a lot more peaceful than those of the reds.

Agree, never let the facts get in the way of a heartfelt viewpoint. Gather you missed the last border assault? PAD guards, assault, murder, guns, bombs, intimidation, beatings ring a bell? Ah never mind, have another beer.

[frodo]

No implementation of the security act for the yellows only for the reds.

The yellows will feel left out, or does it indicate some sort of bias- surely not.

The Yellow protests are in general a lot more peaceful than those of the reds.

Agree, never let the facts get in the way of a heartfelt viewpoint. Gather you missed the last border assault? PAD guards, assault, murder, guns, bombs, intimidation, beatings ring a bell? Ah never mind, have another beer.

Murders? I must apologize because I don't recall any murders during the PAD clash. The only bombs that I can find that were used were tear gas against PAD. Maybe Al Jazeera and other notable news sources are wrong?

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia-pac...1642927739.html

Wait, there were some deaths against Thai soldiers at the border earlier this year, caused by Cambodian troops firing at them. Then again, this is only the BBC and Guardian reporting this.

I don't agree with PAD did, but I can't seem to recall murders or bombs during that clash.

[Gary A]

I have no use for the yellow shirt mobs and after trying to navigate Pattaya at Song Kran, I have no use for the red shirt mobs either.

[Ricardo]

No implementation of the security act for the yellows only for the reds.

The yellows will feel left out, or does it indicate some sort of bias- surely not.

Perhaps there is no need for the security act, since the yellows are not calling for a million people on-the-streets, or being urged to stage a revolution by some nutter overseas ?

[basjke]

So after demanding what can and cannot in thailand's political scene now the yellows also want to control Cambodia?What gonna be next?Malaysia,Singapore maybe Birma

[nickynomates]

Any rally with many people is a danger to ignite a volatile situation.

Think back to be home made bombs thrown at the yellows when they took over the old airport this is why there is a big police presents.

It only takes one stupid person to light what i see as a small fuse.

At the end of the day no rally is good for Thailand or the Thai people.

Its almost as if the country is caught in limbo and just waiting for that spark.

Im starting to feel very sad for the decent people with what is coming.

[Old Man River]

As long as they get their own way and support for everyone involved it will be peaceful.

Sorry, but you confusing them with the Red Shirts.

[tenpounds]

No implementation of the security act for the yellows only for the reds.

The yellows will feel left out, or does it indicate some sort of bias- surely not.

The Yellow protests are in general a lot more peaceful than those of the reds.

Who are you kidding

[h90]

I am most certainly not a fan of the PAD, however, that said. The chances of violence or chaos, based solely on their previous anticis is probably small. For whatever reason, they are reasonably well organized and know their way around the city. BKK is their home turf and even a dog doesn't crap on his own doorstep.

The reds--and this topic isn't about them--were not on home turf and they certainly had no problem pooping on everyone's doorstep. Similar to what happened when the PAD headed out into the hinterlands.

So, let's try and discuss the topic. It would be helpful to know more about who is organizing it (main leader), their agenda, etc. We have some very reasonable and well-informed posters who can contribute a great deal to this.

Monday will be interesting to read the posts, hopefully, after they have gone home and all is OK.

In my opinion they only want to show their disagreement with Hun Sen and want to show that they are still strong.

They are bored by the current government but they don't want to kick it out. So there is nothing to expect.

[animatic]

The usually pro this and anti that sentiments.

Nothing of well considered analysis so far.

A heavy police presence is likely to mean keeping an eye out for outside interference.

A riot from PAD's side alone really doesn't seem likely,

they are not marching to confront anyone at a given place.

There is not the motivation factor to egg this on.

What is missing is any info on which faction with in PAD is on the move.

Or is it a global PAD effort?

In any case there is no specific or general calls from PAD for anything approaching revolution,

or anarchy, or general disorder, so they are easily manageable except when an external force

causes gross problems. So the police presense likely is to keep external forces,

or fringe groups from stirring the pot.

[flying]

they are reasonably well organized and know their way around the city. BKK is their home turf and even a dog doesn't crap on his own doorstep.

Monday will be interesting to read the posts, hopefully, after they have gone home and all is OK.

Same here regarding Monday...... but to say they do not crap on their own turf given much documented history?

I think both sides have a hold their breath till they achieve what they want mentality. Then again they do not have many options. But folks seem to think one side is less troublesome than the other. Just not true...at all.

Edited November 14, 2009 by flying

[flying]

But folks seem to think one side is less troublesome than the other. Just not true...at all.

I have & have seen much from both & many before for many years. We will see much more in years to come from both & new ones too I'm sure.

Black & White only exists when looking at keys on a piano.

[gotlost]

Gee its TODAY NOT TOMORROW.....

[hammered]

The problem with the PAD rally is that they have already motivated the blue-blooded, rich, right-wing crowd who already own the govt. The PAD really has no one else to motivate. Sure they have financial, military and media backing; but there is really no more public support to be had. ASTV is already playing to 100% of its potential audience.

I would have agreed with this a while back but the PAD have lost most of their backing from the groups you mention. Take a look at old Thai message board entries on the attempt on Sondhi's life. They have also lost many sympathisers by both their drift to extremes and by dint of the democrats being in power.

The PAD are no longer linked to the elites and even less so to the military and are more an irritant to them and the PAD are well aware of this and being previosuly used. They are now a small, but well organized group with an effective media operation and high morale. They will now never represent a majority but will remain an influential group in Thai politcs maybe as a pressure group rather than effective parliamentary group.

The recent movements by Thaksin though allow the PAD an opportunity to at least temporarily regain some of the currently lost sympathisers. How well this goes depends on their actions and level of extremism as much as anything

Edited for typos

Edited November 15, 2009 by hammered

[WinnieTheKhwai]

But folks seem to think one side is less troublesome than the other. Just not true...at all.

(Airport takeover, anyone? )

Edit: Good post by Hammered, above.

Edited February 8, 2010 by thaiphoon
Deleted post quote removed

[mca]

Ah we have a new red agitator, I wonder who was recently banned?

Wonder how long this nom de plume will last here.

Or is that better said: propagandist's nom de guerre?

Animatic. Your opinions would come over a lot better if you resisted the urge to accuse people whose viewpoint differ to your own of being a propogandist or red agitator. You obviously consider yourself to be an informed poster with a strong opinion. Why resort to strawman tactics? It weakens your stance as if you can't refute the opposing opinion.

[animatic]

But folks seem to think one side is less troublesome than the other. Just not true...at all.

If you do a thorough look, beyond a single youtube video, over the years and then consider the number of people involved, you'll find the reds were proportionally much more "troublesome."

I have & have seen much from both & many before for many years. We will see much more in years to come from both & new ones too I'm sure.

Black & White only exists when looking at keys on a piano.

Of course that video is very one sided,

based on what we know from OTHER footage and info since then.

Just showing it alone isn't factual and complete..

We do know that dozens of armed Red Shirted Motorcycle taxi guys were converging on the PAD truck,

That this happened a few blocks from the central redshirt taxi radio that rabble roused violence against PAD,

and we also know not a single one was killed, and that they backed off.

Not excusing shooting, but defense is defense.

And this was only a few PAD guards and PAD HAD been grenaded in their sleep

several times at GH in the week before. They had reasonable reason to believe

a grenade was coming their way from this group converging on them.

Regurgitating this again doesn't change history.

[animatic]

Ah we have a new red agitator, I wonder who was recently banned?

Wonder how long this nom de plume will last here.

Or is that better said: propagandist's nom de guerre?

Animatic. Your opinions would come over a lot better if you resisted the urge to accuse people whose viewpoint differ to your own of being a propogandist or red agitator. You obviously consider yourself to be an informed poster with a strong opinion. Why resort to strawman tactics? It weakens your stance as if you can't refute the opposing opinion.

Totally depends on content, and newness, AND repetition of something already overstated

in a similar style to someone recently banned.

Did I say who? No, so no flame I made an observation.

Since there have been a steady influx of short term new faces,

saying exactly the same thing and getting a ban soon thereafter

it is just pointing out to the mods another probable ringer.

And not without a small amount of humor, seemingly lost on you.

If this un-named newbie proves to be a person with variants on their opinions,

and able to change opinions as time goes on, and no neccesarilly towards mine,

but showing flexibility of thought, then they likely will become a productive poster,

and welcome even if of divergent opinion, but sadly too many do not actual last,

and there are reasons why, and getting flamed or directly questioned is not one of them.

We know there is an external group actively messing with TVF

using multiple throwaway names and repeatedly causing trouble,

Such a problem that even typing it's name gets it erased automatically here.

As well as the blatant and obvious recurrent PR effort of Thaksin.

A sincere poster like Pattygreenstar... is welcome to come in and disagree,

since she clearly is a real and sincere poster, not a boiler plate paster,

but one that so resembles a previous banned poster word for word is less welcome.

I don't mind someone disagreeing with my positions, I will argue my points right back,

I had some fine repartee with Ferwert prior to his exit, but he was fairly exceptional,

as a nom de plume here, though we did strongly disagree, we did have off screen dialog too,

but genuine individuals doing it on screen are preferred, over wasting time with PR types on the clock.

Edited November 15, 2009 by animatic

[flying]

Of course that video is very one sided,

based on what we know from OTHER footage and info since then.

Just showing it alone isn't factual and complete..

We do know that dozens ........snipped as speculation

Regurgitating this again doesn't change history.

Perhaps but it is just one video.

A video of a Thai news broadcast.

I assume the reporters, cameramen were there.

Odd then that they did not film the others you speak of?

You have access to the footage you speak of?

Like I said both sides can go round & round it is a civil deal.

To claim one better than the other is silly & that is what the newscast I posted was intended to show against a comment that red was worse etc.

Then again Im sure somewhere in a foreign land on a USA Visa type forum

some are arguing if one side of the many civil disorders in the USA was worse than the other. That wont change history either

Carry on

Edited November 15, 2009 by flying

[animatic]

The problem with the PAD rally is that they have already motivated the blue-blooded, rich, right-wing crowd who already own the govt. The PAD really has no one else to motivate. Sure they have financial, military and media backing; but there is really no more public support to be had. ASTV is already playing to 100% of its potential audience.

I would have agreed with this a while back but the PAD have lost most of their backing from the groups you mention. Take a look at old Thai message board entries on the attempt on Sondhi's life. They have also lost many sympathisers by both their drift to extremes and by dint of the democrats being in power.

The PAD are no longer linked to the elites and even less so to the military and are more an irritant to them and the PAD are well aware of this and being previosuly used. They are now a small, but well organized group with an effective media operation and high morale. They will now never represent a majority but will remain an influential group in Thai politcs maybe as a pressure group rather than effective parliamentary group.

The recent movements by Thaksin though allow the PAD an opportunity to at least temporarily regain some of the currently lost sympathisers. How well this goes depends on their actions and level of extremism as much as anything

Edited for typos

Good analysis hammered.

[animatic]

Of course that video is very one sided,

based on what we know from OTHER footage and info since then.

Just showing it alone isn't factual and complete..

We do know that dozens ........snipped as speculation

Regurgitating this again doesn't change history.

Perhaps but it is just one video.

A video of a Thai news broadcast.

I assume the reporters, cameramen were there.

Odd then that they did not film the others you speak of?

You have access to the footage you speak of?

Like I said both sides can go round & round it is a civil deal.

To claim one better than the other is silly & that is what the newscast I posted was intended to show against a comment that red was worse etc.

Then again Im sure somewhere in a foreign land on a USA Visa type forum

some are arguing if one side of the many civil disorders in the USA was worse than the other. That wont change history either

Carry on

They did show the others, but not in this VERSION of the clip.

I have seen the long one myself. It was posted here and on Youtube.

I personally saw no reason to DL it and save it.

This edited version is meant as a biased representation of a 2 sided incident.

So it can be repeated for political effect without further editing.

Edited November 15, 2009 by animatic