transfer now or wait?

I have no firm view at present, Dubai was a surprise so who knows, sorry I can't help.

I have no firm view at present, Dubai was a surprise so who knows, sorry I can't help.

A friend of mine that ought to know told be that a big bond default/reorg from Dubai was coming any time. That was a couple of weeks ago. Can't believe the market could be too shocked by it happening.

Agreed, the writing has been on the wall for quite some time in Dubai -- for me it started about two/three years ago when a group of Dubai based developers met me in Bangkok asking to see if we would be interested in peddling their wares to the Thai market.

I told that Thailand was not the best market for them to consider but felt there might be a few wealthy clients who might be interested so asked what levels of return their properties had been generating, to which they both promptly and confidently replied 150% (yes one hundred and fifty per cent!!)

I stifled a snigger and asked how that was possible on a rental yield... at which point they laughed and said no I got it all wrong, everybody in Dubai buys to sell on!

I declined the job.

Edited November 27, 200916 yr by quiksilva

Here's to hoping that a lot of that paper got hung on one Thakki Shinegra, Dubai's VIP fugitive guest.

Does Dubai have any bearing on the question the OP is asking?

The UK economy is very uncertain but my feeling is to only exchange what is needed at the moment.

Let's say there might be events which trigger the long-overdue fall of the THB.

The Baht is way too high versus other local currencies.

I would hold off any property purchase until the dust settles. IMHO, the Baht got to fall soon.

The GBP is in bad shape for years to come, too. And if I knew the answer with any certainty, i would be out there

making a killing trading currencies.

Chris

I have no firm view at present, Dubai was a surprise so who knows, sorry I can't help.

A friend of mine that ought to know told be that a big bond default/reorg from Dubai was coming any time. That was a couple of weeks ago. Can't believe the market could be too shocked by it happening.

the default of the Nakheel islamic "suquq" bonds which mature mid december was clear to anybody who is in the bondmarket since a couple of months. what shocked/shocks the markets yesterday and today is that Dubai requests a grace period on interest payments and maturity for a number of other corporate bonds (which are not de jure but de facto government bonds) for a period of six months and has announced a restructuring.

the whole thing is nothing unusual. a bag of rice topples in a warehouse in Northern Manchuria and the Dow or the Dax falls. somebody shouts "Dubai default ante portas" and investors panic. of course one has to howl with the wolves. there is no alternative.

besides that............. YAWNNNN...

Does Dubai have any bearing on the question the OP is asking?

How could Dubai not be relevant to short term currency exchange rates?

Does Dubai have any bearing on the question the OP is asking?

How could Dubai not be relevant to short term currency exchange rates?

it is definitely relevant as the markets prove. british banks are heavily into Dubai financing and global risk aversion during a crisis strengthens Dollar and ¥en.

It's just my hunch/theory that the THB is linked to Japanese trade agreements that favor the Japanese by forcing a higher Bhat!?

I can't explain it, but I 'think' the Japanese prefer a higher BHT to slow imports from Thailand and the Japanese 'influence' in Thailand is historic.

If so, watch the Yen to see which way the Bhat will go. [just a theory]

Edited November 27, 200916 yr by angelPattira

Does Dubai have any bearing on the question the OP is asking?

How could Dubai not be relevant to short term currency exchange rates?

it is definitely relevant as the markets prove. british banks are heavily into Dubai financing and global risk aversion during a crisis strengthens Dollar and ¥en.

and your conclusion re GBP vs. THB short term? i.e. next 3/6 months?

Let's say there might be events which trigger the long-overdue fall of the THB.

The Baht is way too high versus other local currencies.

Looking at the chart of bank of thailand reserve they are buying dollars like mad to avoid more baht appreciations, that means when they finish the money the bath will get even stronger......

Does Dubai have any bearing on the question the OP is asking?

How could Dubai not be relevant to short term currency exchange rates?

it is definitely relevant as the markets prove. british banks are heavily into Dubai financing and global risk aversion during a crisis strengthens Dollar and ¥en.

and your conclusion re GBP vs. THB short term? i.e. next 3/6 months?

i am an old and very experienced investor who has dealt and invested in dozens of different currencies over a period of more than 30 years. but i'm not a prophet and wouldn't even dare to make any currency forecast for next week.