Global Markets In Turmoil After Debt Bombshell

[Naam]

...so, is there any other state/emirate/country/city with less than 350,000 original inhabitants having a total debt as large as Dubai, between $ 60 -100 Billion....?

to me that question is irrelevant. one has to see the net balance of the Dubai corporates "debt minus assets". that's the only figure that counts. mixing corporates with a state, even if closely connected, gives a wrong picture. if one or more of the corporations go bankrupt the individual Emirati might lose his job but he doesn't pay with his tax dollars to bail out the state (which is now happening in many countries). without the global financial crisis Amir al-Maktum might have been admired not only as a national but as the "Gulf hero" and only time will tell whether that might be still the case or won't.

i had a branch in Dubai in 1976 and i know the Dubai of 2009... all i can say is "so what?" as already mentioned, in a few years nobody will talk about present times. but i admit that now is the time for some present poor journalist and envious anal dogs to bark. and it goes without saying that they all knew decades ago that each and everything "them Ay-rabs" achieved with their oil money is doomed and will fail.

[badge]

[...]

...so, is there any other state/emirate/country/city with less than 350,000 original inhabitants having a total debt as large as Dubai, between $ 60 -100 Billion....?

[...]

Oh Im sure theres plenty.

Ireland springs to mind.

population 4m. total private sector debt $2 Trillion.

(source: The Times, Feb 2009)

[midas]

[...]

...so, is there any other state/emirate/country/city with less than 350,000 original inhabitants having a total debt as large as Dubai, between $ 60 -100 Billion....?

[...]

Oh Im sure theres plenty.

Ireland springs to mind.

population 4m. total private sector debt $2 Trillion.

(source: The Times, Feb 2009)

Yes indeed

Public debt in Ireland is expected to soar to 83 percent of gross domestic product next year, from just 25 percent in 2007.

Latvia is sinking into debt even faster. Its borrowings will reach the equivalent of nearly half the economy next year, up from 9 percent a mere two years ago.

Lithuania and Estonia remain worryingly exposed, as do Bulgaria and Hungary. All of these nations carry foreign debt that exceeds 100 percent of their G.D.P.’s

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/01/business...1debt.html?_r=1

[flying]

Creditors to refuse Dubai World deal

The Dubai government, which has said it will not cover Dubai World's debts,

What?

A government is not going to bail out a failed business for the benefit of foreign creditors?!

Who's next? Nah couldn't happen

[Abrak]

Creditors to refuse Dubai World deal

The Dubai government, which has said it will not cover Dubai World's debts,

0

What?

A government is not going to bail out a failed business for the benefit of foreign creditors?!

And here is why the whole Dubai situation is interesting and why it will run and run.

You see that Moody's issued this week, this report on Dubai...

http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093285764

So Moody's seem to arguing that these debts are 'Government or Sovereign' and that Dubai, is not being asked to bailout a business, but honour its commitments.

While if you read the Nakheel Sukuk offer document, it specifically mentions that the Dubai Government does not guarantee any debt for Dubai World. (It also mentions that under Dubai law, you cannot sue the Government for repayment of debts anyways.)

So here is where it gets interesting. Banks do not mind losing money but they do not like being 'legged over', that privilege being largely reserved for them.

It is also states something along the lines that Dubai World is not obligated under Dubai law to publish financial statements.

So presumably lenders were only lending to them on the back of the Quasi- Guarantee. Which is why lenders will not agree a standstill until they hope that Dubai will take responsibility for the restructuring. Of course Dubai may well argue that it never took responsibility for this debt and has never indicated otherwise.

Edited December 4, 2009 by Abrak

[midas]

Creditors to refuse Dubai World deal

The Dubai government, which has said it will not cover Dubai World's debts,

What?

A government is not going to bail out a failed business for the benefit of foreign creditors?!

Who's next? Nah couldn't happen

Cant we just wait to see if the lights start going out ?

Anyway I would put my money on California and NY first

[Abrak]

Cant we just wait to see if the lights start going out ?

Anyway I would put my money on California and NY first

Well rumor has it, and I stress it is rumor because it is the kind of rumor that would materialise true or not, Jumeirah has already pulled out of its island project in Phuket and owners are being left high and dry.

[Naam]

So presumably lenders were only lending to them on the back of the Quasi- Guarantee...

...a guarantee which quasi originated in the lenders' wet dreams and greed.

[Naam]

the anals who claim now there's only sand but no oil left in Dubai are right. this picture shows clearly only sand, no sign of any oil

[trogers]

Creditors to refuse Dubai World deal

The Dubai government, which has said it will not cover Dubai World's debts,

What?

A government is not going to bail out a failed business for the benefit of foreign creditors?!

Who's next? Nah couldn't happen

All said and done, will Dubai have the money to employ Benz driving foreigners to change those light bulbs? ...

[LaoPo]

the anals who claim now there's only sand but no oil left in Dubai are right. this picture shows clearly only sand, no sign of any oil

Well, you can't deny it will be fascinating to watch what will happen after the holidays when January 2010 starts.

How many high paid expats (I'm not talking the poor buggers in the building industry) will still have working permits and allowed to stay building on that crazy bubble ?

How much longer Can Dubai continue to import desalinated water, more expensive than oil ? How much longer will the people (in the West) accept this extreme spilling of money and resources in a piece of desert just because of the dream and utter craziness of one man ?

In fact Dubai is a totalitarian steered economy by that one man who made a mess out of it or are you claiming that present Dubai is a success ? A state where his portrait is on every corner of the streets reminds me of the totalitarian regimes in Europe, in the old days....

This forum is discussing into the extreme the political situation of Thailand but I don't think that would be possible in totalitarian Dubai, would it ?

Maybe it's me but I can't see the charm or attraction of Dubai if I see those photos.....I prefer Thailand.

LaoPo

[Naam]

All said and done, will Dubai have the money to employ Benz driving foreigners to change those light bulbs? ...

the picture Flying posted is not Dubai but Vegas. your question demonstrates that you have never been to the Gulf

[trogers]

All said and done, will Dubai have the money to employ Benz driving foreigners to change those light bulbs? ...

the picture Flying posted is not Dubai but Vegas. your question demonstrates that you have never been to the Gulf

No, I have not been to the Gulf area, and my last trip to Vegas was an overnight trip in Oct 1982.

But any overbuilt city needs bulb changers...and I do believe locals in Dubai will not do it...

[LaoPo]

Meet Dubai's Billionaire Ruler, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum

BARBARA SURK | 12/ 4/09 03:38 AM

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Dubai's ruler writes poetry, rides horses across the desert in long-distance endurance races and hobnobs with royals like the Queen of England. Mixing extravagance with boundless ambition, he commanded the desert city-state's meteoric rise – and helped sow the seeds, some observers say, of its debt crisis.

Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum's business-over-politics approach turned Dubai into a city-state with the surface trappings of Western liberalism – a thin veneer over the conservatism and strict political boundaries familiar throughout the Arab world.

Drink at the bars, wear bikinis at the beach, hit the discos and make money, was the overt message. But there was a red line in the sand: Don't question his grandiose plans or the foundations they were built on. Those foundations, it turns out, were not oil, but other people's money. Lots of it.

"In the past, the ruler was trusted on finances because everyone thought they were backed by oil," said Simon Henderson, a Gulf and energy specialist at the Washington Institute for Near East

Policy. "It will be different from now on."

Dubai is one of seven highly autonomous statelets that make up the United Arab Emirates. Though UAE capital Abu Dhabi has huge oil riches, neighboring Dubai has very little.

The 60-year-old Mohammed's confidence and ambition gave way to aspirations to place Dubai in the same league as London or New York.

Forging ahead with eye-popping development, he vigorously wooed investors, leading to excesses that created a speculative bubble. One of the biggest borrowers was the government's own development vehicle, the conglomerate Dubai World, which shook markets with its announcement last week that it needed to delay payments on part of its $60 billion debt.

Mohammed and his government, however, have refused to stand by the company's debts, and when the signs mounted that Dubai was falling victim to the world economic turmoil, he denied it and never came up with a recovery plan.

Dubai's ruler supervised the Gulf city's stunning makeover in the past decade, turning it into a model for development in an Arab world plagued with poverty, corruption and nepotism.

Along with extravagant projects like artificial islands and glitzy skyscrapers, international schools, multinational companies and luxury hotels mushroomed around the city. They offered young Arab professionals jobs and a lifestyle they couldn't find or afford in Cairo or Beirut.

Like his Muslim city-state with a Western outlook, Mohammed, whose net worth is listed at $12 billion by Forbes, has held onto deeply rooted Arabian traditions while pursuing his ambitions for modernity.

He breeds camels and is a passionate lover of horses. He rides endurance races in the desert and drives a customized Mercedes four-wheel drive SUV along Dubai's sprawling highways. He listens to residents' complaints the old-fashioned way, in his diwan, or reception room, but also regularly updates his Facebook profile and exchanges tweets with Dubai's youth.

That mix has suited his personality and ruling style in a region where personality cults around leaders are considered part of good governance.

Taken in by Mohammed's marketing skills, deposed politicians, oil tycoons and powerful executives willingly participated in Dubai's real estate bonanza – no questions asked – as did professionals from Europe and Asia who flocked to the emirate, paying for condos and villas before building even started.

Some multinational companies even made the emirate their regional headquarters, and company executives rubbed shoulders with Hollywood stars like Charlize Theron and athletes like Tiger Woods.

Charmed by Mohammed's personality and his assurances, investors poured in billions.

Taking advantage of cheap credit, developers – some run by the government and other's closely linked to it – built soaring skyscrapers and luxury residential compounds on man-made islands at a pace that outstripped real demand. Despite oversupply, real estate prices soared, in a mirror image of what happened in the United States before the subprime mortgage crisis sent the world into its worst recession in over six decades.

When the global financial crisis hit Dubai, prices collapsed by 50 percent in a year while the cheap funding dried up, meaning other projects either sat unfinished or were scrapped.

Now, as the emirate's largest government-owned conglomerate, Dubai World, reels under the weight of its $60 billion in debts, Mohammed has retreated from the limelight.

Given how intertwined Dubai is with its ruler and members of the Maktoum dynasty, the fallout could create trouble for Mohammed, who must now either hope that the neighboring emirate of Abu Dhabi will step in with some sort of bailout or that creditors will see they have little choice but to agree to restructuring debt.

"It will be very difficult for Sheik Mohammed to survive this one," said Christopher Davidson, an expert in Gulf affairs at Britain's Durham University and author of two books on the Emirates. He said Mohammed misled investors by giving them the impression he had money to back his plans.

The Associated Press e-mailed requests for an interview with Mohammed but they were not answered.

Dubai officials said the city's government will not be responsible for the company's debts and Mohammed has shown little inclination over the past week to address Dubai World's debt problems directly.

When he recently came forward, he accused the media of exaggerating the situation and arguing that the market reaction showed a "lack of understanding of what is going on in Dubai."

The lack of clarity from Dubai's ruling and corporate elite has been evident over the past year, when Dubai became the Gulf region's biggest credit crunch victim.

At a rare meeting with reporters two months ago, Mohammed's answer to a question about Dubai's debt-load was: "I assure you we are all right. ... We are not worried."

By November, he had grown more testy. In a meeting with international investors in November, he switched from Arabic to English to tell naysayers in the media to "shut up."

Source: The Huffington Post

LaoPo

[Naam]

1. Well, you can't deny it will be fascinating to watch what will happen after the holidays when January 2010 starts.

2. How many high paid expats (I'm not talking the poor buggers in the building industry) will still have working permits and allowed to stay building on that crazy bubble ?

3. How much longer Can Dubai continue to import desalinated water, more expensive than oil ?

4. How much longer will the people (in the West) accept this extreme spilling of money and resources in a piece of desert just because of the dream and utter craziness of one man ?

5. In fact Dubai is a totalitarian steered economy by that one man

6. are you claiming that present Dubai is a success ?

7. A state where his portrait is on every corner of the streets reminds me of the totalitarian regimes in Europe, in the old days....

8. This forum is discussing into the extreme the political situation of Thailand but I don't think that would be possible in totalitarian Dubai, would it ?

9. Maybe it's me but I can't see the charm or attraction of Dubai if I see those photos.....I prefer Thailand.

LaoPo

1. my personal opinion is that nothing will happen.

2. i have no idea and it's none of my business.

3. longer than your and my statistical lifetime.

4. people in the west have no fàcking say in this respect.

5. that is correct.

6. yes i do, even though its present state looks deploable. in my opinion Dubai was and will be a big success in future.

7. that is the done thing in Syria, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Dubai, Sharjah, Abu Dhabi, Ra's al-Khaima, Al Ain, Ajjman, Umm al-Quain, Fujairah and Oman.

8. correct, it would not be possible.

9. beauty is in the eyes of the beholder

[LaoPo]

Meet Dubai's Billionaire Ruler, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum

"It will be very difficult for Sheik Mohammed to survive this one," said Christopher Davidson, an expert in Gulf affairs at Britain's Durham University and author of two books on the Emirates. He said Mohammed misled investors by giving them the impression he had money to back his plans.

The Associated Press e-mailed requests for an interview with Mohammed but they were not answered.

Dubai officials said the city's government will not be responsible for the company's debts and Mohammed has shown little inclination over the past week to address Dubai World's debt problems directly.

LaoPo

The man is a notorious cheater.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

1. Well, you can't deny it will be fascinating to watch what will happen after the holidays when January 2010 starts.

2. How many high paid expats (I'm not talking the poor buggers in the building industry) will still have working permits and allowed to stay building on that crazy bubble ?

3. How much longer Can Dubai continue to import desalinated water, more expensive than oil ?

4. How much longer will the people (in the West) accept this extreme spilling of money and resources in a piece of desert just because of the dream and utter craziness of one man ?

5. In fact Dubai is a totalitarian steered economy by that one man

6. are you claiming that present Dubai is a success ?

7. A state where his portrait is on every corner of the streets reminds me of the totalitarian regimes in Europe, in the old days....

8. This forum is discussing into the extreme the political situation of Thailand but I don't think that would be possible in totalitarian Dubai, would it ?

9. Maybe it's me but I can't see the charm or attraction of Dubai if I see those photos.....I prefer Thailand.

LaoPo

1. my personal opinion is that nothing will happen.

2. i have no idea and it's none of my business.

3. longer than your and my statistical lifetime.

4. people in the west have no fàcking say in this respect.

5. that is correct.

6. yes i do, even though its present state looks deploable. in my opinion Dubai was and will be a big success in future.

7. that is the done thing in Syria, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Dubai, Sharjah, Abu Dhabi, Ra's al-Khaima, Al Ain, Ajjman, Umm al-Quain, Fujairah and Oman.

8. correct, it would not be possible.

9. beauty is in the eyes of the beholder

1. sorry but the reports in Europe are different; tens of thousands of expats have either lost their jobs or have to leave December 31st; their debts have to paid at once (employers have to inform the banks IMMEDIATELY if someone is sacked!) like cars, housing debts etc.

On top of that the construction workers from India and the like are no longer needed.

Many smaller -western- companies have not been paid by either the government or contractors like Dubai World, Nakheel and others; other companies have to lay off up to 90% of their staff because everything came to a stand still.

2. agree; but we're discussing Dubai.

3. probably, depending how much funds they have and depending how many people live visit/holiday in Dubai

4. Idisagree; we ALL have a saying in the world's pollution, whether in the US, China or Dubai; it's OUR world.

5. agreed

6. I disagree

7. Indeed; disgusting.

8. agreed

9. Indeed but I don't like to stay in cities with thousands of skyscrapers on the horizon hurt my eyes; have seen to many; I prefer the horizon to be spilled with palm trees

LaoPo

[Naam]

1. sorry but the reports in Europe are different; tens of thousands of expats have either lost their jobs or have to leave December 31st; their debts have to paid at once (employers have to inform the banks IMMEDIATELY if someone is sacked!) like cars, housing debts etc. On top of that the construction workers from India and the like are no longer needed.

my reference to employees and workers i posted under #2 and i assumed #1 refers to will happen in/to Dubai itself. that people lose their jobs is something normal. millions lost their jobs globally because of the financial crisis. what makes Dubai so special? even its gross debt is only a tiny fraction of the trillions of debt which banks and financial institutions accumulated. that debt is a non recoverable loss. in Dubai there are still buildings which have a certain value even if unfinished not to mention the excellent infrastructure.

[Naam]

4. Idisagree; we ALL have a saying in the world's pollution, whether in the US, China or Dubai; it's OUR world.

ridiculous! how many coal-fired or nuclear power plants in Dubai pollute this world and how many of these exist in Central Europe and the rest of the world? how much manufacturing industry is located in Dubai which pollutes air and water and how much anywhere else? how much Agent Orange did the Dubai air force spray on forests of any foreign country? how much depleted Uranium was fired from Dubai armed forces into countries after they invaded them?

"we" (the industrialised countries) have for 1½ centuries polluted this world with our industry, developing and testing of nuclear weapons and last not least wars. now emerging economies e.g. China and Brazil have all the rights and they use their rights to pollute as much and as long they please. the Chinese are too polite to say so, Brazil's Lula da Silva does not hesitate to speak it out publicly.

[Naam]

that is the done thing in Syria, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Dubai, Sharjah, Abu Dhabi, Ra's al-Khaima, Al Ain, Ajjman, Umm al-Quain, Fujairah and Oman

OOPS! i forgot to name Qatar. so sorry!

[LaoPo]

So much Naam-force makes me decide to rest my case.

Have a nice day and mind your heart

Our health is most important Naam and matters more than the "I know better" ping-pong game (in which I'm taking part as well) we're playing.

That Sheikh doesn't even deserve my time

LaoPo

[pkrv]

I must confess an interesting read.

If I have this correct the god fearing traditional individual owned all the banks, then proceeded to borrow from them, whilst not offering reports on them, did not offer freehold property in his massive property ventures (they belonged to him), until the 11th hour, then even then, not really anyway.

And people fell for this

I assume 'his' money is elsewhere and he is deeply religious and pious? Perhaps the expression camel and eye of a needle is far more appropriate, than simply defecating on one's own country, or perhaps urinating in its water supply.

Edited December 4, 2009 by pkrv

[LaoPo]

I must confess an interesting read.

If I have this correct the god fearing traditional individual owned all the banks, then proceeded to borrow from them, whilst not offering reports on them, did not offer freehold property in his massive property ventures (they belonged to him), until the 11th hour, then even then, not really anyway.

And people fell for this

I assume 'his' money is elsewhere and he is deeply religious and pious? Perhaps the expression camel and eye of a needle is far more appropriate, than simply defecating on one's own country, or perhaps urinating in its water supply.

You're correct and I said it before in post 136: "The man is a notorious cheater" and yes, people fell for this since it's in man's nature: greed.

In this context this is an interesting read:

Dubai has always been Bankrupt - Morally and Environmentally:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/johann-hari/...n_b_372795.html

LaoPo

Edited December 4, 2009 by LaoPo

[pkrv]

I must confess an interesting read.

If I have this correct the god fearing traditional individual owned all the banks, then proceeded to borrow from them, whilst not offering reports on them, did not offer freehold property in his massive property ventures (they belonged to him), until the 11th hour, then even then, not really anyway.

And people fell for this

I assume 'his' money is elsewhere and he is deeply religious and pious? Perhaps the expression camel and eye of a needle is far more appropriate, than simply defecating on one's own country, or perhaps urinating in its water supply.

You're correct and I said it before in post 136: "The man is a notorious cheater" and yes, people fell for this since it's in man's nature: greed.

In this context this is an interesting read:

Dubai has always been Bankrupt - Morally and Environmentally:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/johann-hari/...n_b_372795.html

LaoPo

Hi LaoPo - I got the impression that most of the debt is actally internal but the currency is pegged to the USD. So no change.

I am just not quite sure how much more the USD can take in this respect.

Can I peg my new currency PKRV dollars (dollars sounds like a good word, trustworthy stuff don't you think?) to the USD and just sort of issue them? I have a fast printing machine or can outsource printing if required

Any idea how much toilet paper costs these days, it need only be the cheap stuff. I am thinking of diversifying into tree leaves anyway, the world has overproduced toilet paper. Tree leaves thats the way to go

edit - I see the slave trade is still alive and well - I assume the slaves too praise this religion, much like the blacks did the other one in the US - I wonder if they will ever find out about something called humanism.

Edited December 4, 2009 by pkrv

[LaoPo]

^^^

Pegging 100% of your hard earned PKRV dollars to the US $ seems risky to me.

I would consider 25% to the Euro - 25% to Swiss Francs - 25% to US $'s and 25% to Naam Dirhams.

that's your best bet

LaoPo

[pkrv]

^^^

Pegging 100% of your hard earned PKRV dollars to the US $ seems risky to me.

I would consider 25% to the Euro - 25% to Swiss Francs - 25% to US $'s and 25% to Naam Dirhams.

that's your best bet

LaoPo

I am not sure about the Naam Dirhams what are they pegged to

[LaoPo]

^^^

Pegging 100% of your hard earned PKRV dollars to the US $ seems risky to me.

I would consider 25% to the Euro - 25% to Swiss Francs - 25% to US $'s and 25% to Naam Dirhams.

that's your best bet

LaoPo

I am not sure about the Naam Dirhams what are they pegged to

The best of the best....

Mia Nois

LaoPo

[pkrv]

^^^

Pegging 100% of your hard earned PKRV dollars to the US $ seems risky to me.

I would consider 25% to the Euro - 25% to Swiss Francs - 25% to US $'s and 25% to Naam Dirhams.

that's your best bet

LaoPo

I am not sure about the Naam Dirhams what are they pegged to

The best of the best....

Mia Nois

LaoPo

<Edit Sorry not quite sure what happend>

Ohh dear sorry I disagree, there are three of them - I keep suggesting a cat to counter two of them but this just falls on deaf ears (The cat would of course make mincemeat of the other two perpetrators and of course endear itself to the third at the same time )

Edited December 4, 2009 by pkrv

[Naam]

I am not sure about the Naam Dirhams what are they pegged to

The best of the best... Mia Nois

:D

[LaoPo]

I am not sure about the Naam Dirhams what are they pegged to

The best of the best... Mia Nois

:D

Good to see you had a good night's sleep ...that gives the Naam Dirhams wings to fly to the pegged ones.

LaoPo