Thailand Tourism To Drop 34% This High Season

[doomster]

Perhaps an example highlights the problem: My friend says hey, I need a break, let's get out of here and I said umm ok, where to? Singapore he says. So he loaded up his credit card with some cheap airfares on Air Asia and that's where we'll be for Christmas. I had said, hey, just a sec. let's try Hua Hin or somewhere nice. Ok, go look dumbass he said, just make sure it's not Pattaya. You understand the difference, right and I'm Thai and (insert Thai rambling statement about dirty farangs and insults about Thai women with tatoos blah blah blah, as if his poop don't stink.) Anyway, I snag an awesome deal at the 5 star Pan Pacific for SG$250 a night (taxes included), then I look at nice hotels in Hua Hin. I nearly soiled myself. Comparable rates at the Sofitel, Hilton and Marriot were all significantly higher - between 50 and 100% more. It's also cheaper for us to fly SIN-HKT then it is to do HKT-BKK.

Im looking forward to Singapore. We can pick up some quality clothes that won't disintegrate on the 1st wash, I can drink he tap water, no touts will harass me, the taxis will be honest and best of all if I have a problem a cop will help me, not try and extort money from me. If I need to catch some rays, I have the magnificent hotel pool. The bottom line? I think Thailand has lost both its price advantage and cannot compete on quality of experience in the 4*+ market anymore.

Very good point. The ship has hit an iceberg but some still think the ship is unsinkable due to the BS they have swallowed. The good ship Siam is floundering as a result of numerous factors. I am already in a lifeboat and i can see some people pointing and laughing at me. I hear them say that i am a doomster. I just smile back. The band is still playing and i know this is reassuring for the believers. Some people just look confused, perhaps they wiill save themselfs!

PS to all americans 'more than' not 'more then'. Then is not than - why insist! I know than can be spoken as then is an american accent but it is not>

[junglist]

I think the world has become smaller and information is just a click away. Every time the Reds and Yellows make news in reality they hurt the nation. The videos of corrupt police on Youtube show the dark side of the Thai tourism industry. If Thailand wants to be a “Hub” of tourism then its time to clean up your backyard and get rid of the trash that has been staining your reputation.

Will this happen. No, sadly I don’t think I will live to see it.

[TopDogger]

For them to come out and anounce a 34% decrease, IMO it will be much worse....

[Credo]

I wonder what kind of tourists will come to Thailand?

[moskito]

"During this year's high season, hotels in Phuket will enjoy average occupancy nearly 80 per cent, higher than the last peak season," she said.

oh yeah, they really enjoying tourists mostly from russia, estonia or litavia which doesnt spent a bath

Most of the NEW TOURISTS doesnt spend much outside the hotels too and are on package tours. Good way for keeping the hotels busy, but

no income for the facilities around.

The downturn in tourism was absolutely clear with this worldwide crises. 2nd thing is that tourists change from Thailand to Sri Lanka, Phillipines,

Indonesia and also South and Middle America, countries where they can be sure they get back in time and not loosing their jobs due to some

yellow or red T-shirt Mob blocking the Airports!

WAKE UP TAT, most problems Thailand creates by itself, Kindergarten time is over.

[geriatrickid]

I wonder what kind of tourists will come to Thailand?

Sadly, not the ones that are needed.

Edited December 15, 2009 by geriatrickid

[jayjayjayjay]

Fact: 82% of statistics are made up on the spot.

Given your quote, don't know what to believe!!!!

[Brunus]

Thainomics - if volume falls just increase margin and you will make even more money !

What is so amazing about that? You obviously don't know anything about economics do you?

It is a very possible situation depending on the goods or service and location.

Of course you can do it. But if you just raise the price and don't offer a better service, you are not gonna have more tourists. You are likely gonna lose more tourists, who for the same price can go somewhere else and have a better service. So what do you do next. Raise the price again?

[TAWP]

Some areas in Silom has seen a steady increase of tourists over the past months as compared to how it was some 10 months ago, wonder if this will remain...doubtful it will decrease, more likely not increase as much during the high season now as it could have been.

[bkkjames]

Thainomics - if volume falls just increase margin and you will make even more money !

What is so amazing about that? You obviously don't know anything about economics do you?

It is a very possible situation depending on the goods or service and location.

Of course you can do it. But if you just raise the price and don't offer a better service, you are not gonna have more tourists. You are likely gonna lose more tourists, who for the same price can go somewhere else and have a better service. So what do you do next. Raise the price again?

Yea this will work for resorts charging in excess of 20k a night in Phuket etc. The kind of tourists that never leave the resort and spend money in local shops. Great for a few select resort owners, not so great for the local economy.

However, as TAT seems fixated on actually numbers of tourists vs the amount of money they spend here, safe to say that while the public sector will continue to develop figures that show one thing, the private sector's actual numbers on the ground show another.

[rohitsuk]

Thainomics - if volume falls just increase margin and you will make even more money !

What is so amazing about that? You obviously don't know anything about economics do you?

It is a very possible situation depending on the goods or service and location.

Not a lot, just a First from Oxford in PPE and a Havard MBA. You a Cambridge and Yale man are you ?

I would be fascinated to read a parallel case study to the present Thai Tourism situation, which shows a corresponding fall in volume produced greater revenue from increased margin. Let me know if you find one.

Edited December 15, 2009 by rohitsuk

[NCFC]

Perhaps an example highlights the problem: My friend says hey, I need a break, let's get out of here and I said umm ok, where to? Singapore he says. So he loaded up his credit card with some cheap airfares on Air Asia and that's where we'll be for Christmas. I had said, hey, just a sec. let's try Hua Hin or somewhere nice. Ok, go look dumbass he said, just make sure it's not Pattaya. You understand the difference, right and I'm Thai and (insert Thai rambling statement about dirty farangs and insults about Thai women with tatoos blah blah blah, as if his poop don't stink.) Anyway, I snag an awesome deal at the 5 star Pan Pacific for SG$250 a night (taxes included), then I look at nice hotels in Hua Hin. I nearly soiled myself. Comparable rates at the Sofitel, Hilton and Marriot were all significantly higher - between 50 and 100% more. It's also cheaper for us to fly SIN-HKT then it is to do HKT-BKK.

Im looking forward to Singapore. We can pick up some quality clothes that won't disintegrate on the 1st wash, I can drink he tap water, no touts will harass me, the taxis will be honest and best of all if I have a problem a cop will help me, not try and extort money from me. If I need to catch some rays, I have the magnificent hotel pool. The bottom line? I think Thailand has lost both its price advantage and cannot compete on quality of experience in the 4*+ market anymore.

I think you hit the nail on the head.

We were checking out the price of Xmas dinner at a 5* BKK hotel for some famil coming over from the UK. Since their last trip two years ago the cost of the dinner is up 20% in baht terms and is double in sterling terms. So who's going to come when prices have doubled in real terms in just two years and better deals are available elsewhere?

[NCFC]

Some areas in Silom has seen a steady increase of tourists over the past months as compared to how it was some 10 months ago, wonder if this will remain...doubtful it will decrease, more likely not increase as much during the high season now as it could have been.

You think they popped up in Silom having crawled through an international network of sewer pipes?

The number of tourist arrivals are doubtless counted at the airport, and hopefully more reliable than anecdotal evidence.

[Patong Bob]

I'm sure that there will be more tourists in Phuket this year. Closing bars between 1400 - 1700 allows them to spend even more time vvisiting temples !

[jb5music]

"The strengthening of the euro has become the key factor for the slowdown" Ummm, if the Euro was strengthening against the Baht, wouldn't that encourage tourists with Euros to spend to come to Thailand as the exchange rate would be favourable. If the Euro was weakening then I think this would be a key factor in a drop of tourist from European countries. Is this another great piece of reporting from the Notion or did I get out of bed too early causing my brain to malfunction??

Oh no - that makes perfect sense like "Extreme drop in the price of hotels and food seen as major role in the decline of Thailand tourism"

or "Finally resolving all political dissidence and offering free one year visas on entry seen as stake in the heart of Thailand tourism" I mean...

Don't these columns make perfect sense to you?

[moskito]

Perhaps an example highlights the problem: My friend says hey, I need a break, let's get out of here and I said umm ok, where to? Singapore he says. So he loaded up his credit card with some cheap airfares on Air Asia and that's where we'll be for Christmas. I had said, hey, just a sec. let's try Hua Hin or somewhere nice. Ok, go look dumbass he said, just make sure it's not Pattaya. You understand the difference, right and I'm Thai and (insert Thai rambling statement about dirty farangs and insults about Thai women with tatoos blah blah blah, as if his poop don't stink.) Anyway, I snag an awesome deal at the 5 star Pan Pacific for SG$250 a night (taxes included), then I look at nice hotels in Hua Hin. I nearly soiled myself. Comparable rates at the Sofitel, Hilton and Marriot were all significantly higher - between 50 and 100% more. It's also cheaper for us to fly SIN-HKT then it is to do HKT-BKK.

Im looking forward to Singapore. We can pick up some quality clothes that won't disintegrate on the 1st wash, I can drink he tap water, no touts will harass me, the taxis will be honest and best of all if I have a problem a cop will help me, not try and extort money from me. If I need to catch some rays, I have the magnificent hotel pool. The bottom line? I think Thailand has lost both its price advantage and cannot compete on quality of experience in the 4*+ market anymore.

I think you hit the nail on the head.

We were checking out the price of Xmas dinner at a 5* BKK hotel for some famil coming over from the UK. Since their last trip two years ago the cost of the dinner is up 20% in baht terms and is double in sterling terms. So who's going to come when prices have doubled in real terms in just two years and better deals are available elsewhere?

hit the nail on the head? i dont think so! I lived for a year in Singapore and its a CITY which has nothing in common with THAILAND. Its ok for a short trip and some days on a SWIMMING POOL but most of the tourists visiting Thailand for BEACHES and FUN. 4+5 Star clientel are not the people Thailand need for its tourism industry really. They need the middle class tourists which spend money in THAISHOPS and THAIFACILITIES, not in Farang owned 5-Star restaurants and a Speedboat trip to phe phe island.

Its just a small percentage of people in 4+5star resorts and often they are the ones which are not leaving their Hotel and spending money what reaches the normal Thaiciticen.

Truth is that prices in Thailand are rising year after year, but the price-performance ratio is the same or worse. But for Thais it doesnt matter, if only half of the tourists come, the 50% have to pay double prices, thats dumb but Thaistyle and I've known it to happen.

btw. tourism numbers and arriving foreigners are not only counted at airports....there are a lot of Visarunners counted as tourists 4 times a year!

Does anybody know the actual numbers of foreigners living in the Kingdom?

[wpcoe]

Is the 34% drop a year-on-year drop? If so, what was the figure for last high season? I seem to recall that last year was slow as well? If so, then compounding this year and last year's high seasons, what's the drop over the 2007-2008 high season?

[dudopode]

has nothing to do with the PM....

It is just the way thais behave with foreigners that is an issue here

(double price, scam, theft at airport, murders , closing bars at 2am, paying for a company that will never be yours... )

if i remember well it is Tikki thats started to push the foreign investors out of Thailand with crazy racist laws.... and he made it... now they are gone to Vietnam, Lao, Cambodia... and not ready to come back

Foreigners get bored and they do remember things they dont forget after 6 months

[wichianburi1]

So let me get this right: because the so called Europeans are getting a very good excahnge rate - upto 50 baht then this stops them coming to Thaland. Where as if they were to get say 40 then they would flock here as ...........well

Thai logic (madness) at its best

Well said doomster

[Abrak]

I think the Thai tourism industry was doing better then it ever should have anyway. It was red hot there for a while, I do still think that Thailand tourism is in a long term bull market.

I agree.

Bangkok is the 3rd most visited city in the world by tourists (according to Wikipedia) after Paris and London.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism

Bangkok is a great place but 3rd in the world?

It blazed the trail in S-E Asia and almost seem to have a monopoly as tourists first flooded here. Unfortunately it went a bit Benidorm and is generally regarded as a bit passe and grubby. Meanwhile competition in the region has increased and learnt from Thailand's mistakes (luckily none seem to have the same natural advantages.)

I guess the big opportunity is Chinese and other Asian tourists.

[termad]

Perhaps an example highlights the problem: My friend says hey, I need a break, let's get out of here and I said umm ok, where to? Singapore he says. So he loaded up his credit card with some cheap airfares on Air Asia and that's where we'll be for Christmas. I had said, hey, just a sec. let's try Hua Hin or somewhere nice. Ok, go look dumbass he said, just make sure it's not Pattaya. You understand the difference, right and I'm Thai and (insert Thai rambling statement about dirty farangs and insults about Thai women with tatoos blah blah blah, as if his poop don't stink.) Anyway, I snag an awesome deal at the 5 star Pan Pacific for SG$250 a night (taxes included), then I look at nice hotels in Hua Hin. I nearly soiled myself. Comparable rates at the Sofitel, Hilton and Marriot were all significantly higher - between 50 and 100% more. It's also cheaper for us to fly SIN-HKT then it is to do HKT-BKK.

Im looking forward to Singapore. We can pick up some quality clothes that won't disintegrate on the 1st wash, I can drink he tap water, no touts will harass me, the taxis will be honest and best of all if I have a problem a cop will help me, not try and extort money from me. If I need to catch some rays, I have the magnificent hotel pool. The bottom line? I think Thailand has lost both its price advantage and cannot compete on quality of experience in the 4*+ market anymore.

I think you hit the nail on the head.

We were checking out the price of Xmas dinner at a 5* BKK hotel for some famil coming over from the UK. Since their last trip two years ago the cost of the dinner is up 20% in baht terms and is double in sterling terms. So who's going to come when prices have doubled in real terms in just two years and better deals are available elsewhere?

But you have to remember that Thais will always believe there own propagandar - any Thai will tell you that Thailand is the worlds most popular holiday destination

and that everybody in the world agrees that Thai food is the best in the world. They therefore think that all they have to do is to sit back and wait for the golden geese to come and be plucked. What they don't seem to realise is that once tourists try new destinations and find they like them there's a good chance that they will never come to Thailand again. For summer holidays for instance people in western Europe are finding a whole new world in Eastern Europe -no long haul flights!

It was a bubble waiting to burst especially with the currency exchange rates being what they are now i.e. about a year ago the Pound = TB 65 today the exchange rate is about 53.

[Abrak]

We were checking out the price of Xmas dinner at a 5* BKK hotel for some famil coming over from the UK. Since their last trip two years ago the cost of the dinner is up 20% in baht terms and is double in sterling terms. So who's going to come when prices have doubled in real terms in just two years and better deals are available elsewhere?

What a classic Brit comment.

Sterling collapses and the conclusion is that prices everywhere else have gone up in 'REAL' terms. The baht on a trade weighted basis is actually slightly lower than 2 years ago.

Brits can, of course, stay at home, go to the a 5* hotel (say the Dorchester) and pay Bt15,000 a head (ex alcohol).

Edited December 15, 2009 by Abrak

[TAWP]

Some areas in Silom has seen a steady increase of tourists over the past months as compared to how it was some 10 months ago, wonder if this will remain...doubtful it will decrease, more likely not increase as much during the high season now as it could have been.

You think they popped up in Silom having crawled through an international network of sewer pipes?

The number of tourist arrivals are doubtless counted at the airport, and hopefully more reliable than anecdotal evidence.

I suggest you stop biting lemons right before posting on the board. It leaves your posts with a sour taste.

I never once in my post suggested that they should be counting tourists in another location nor that any anecdotal evidence on any location suggested that the reported decline isn't true in actual numbers. Only that last year some sections of the city was dead at this time of year, and while it slowly has recovered it clearly could be better, as the numbers in the OP would suggest.

[madjbs]

Thainomics - if volume falls just increase margin and you will make even more money !

What is so amazing about that? You obviously don't know anything about economics do you?

It is a very possible situation depending on the goods or service and location.

Not a lot, just a First from Oxford in PPE and a Havard MBA. You a Cambridge and Yale man are you ?

I would be fascinated to read a parallel case study to the present Thai Tourism situation, which shows a corresponding fall in volume produced greater revenue from increased margin. Let me know if you find one.

No, you are erecting a straw man.

Your original statement implied the usual practice for Thai business is to raise prices when volume falls. This is incorrect, although it may be true that SOME business do indeed do just that.

If you don't understand why it may be beneficial for SOME business to do that then I don't think you were paying attention during the "E" part of your degree.

Also, if you believe that the majority of Thai business raise their prices when volume falls, you are just disillusioned. That is why your comments relating to case studies of the entire tourism situation are irrelevant.

[Cabrinha]

I told you so.

less 34% is about average across all industries across the world. Japans exports where down 34% too so in the end, this number is a wash.

Hua Hin is pretty cheap at the moment. I know pretty much none of the 5 star hotels are fully booked this high season. The new Intercontinental here is real nice.

[mahtin]

Since December 5th the Euro has been weakening daily.

[Chunkton]

Well the thing about the so called Global Financial Crisis (GFC) is that it has allowed inept governments worldwide to blame it rather than face up to their useless policies and bloated expensive bureaucracies that have created most of the whole mess. The GFC is like the boogyman, no ones fault. just came out of nowhere, fortunately governments have their public school undereducated masses with little cognitive reasoning to accept all this BS.

Idiots like Gordon (sell the Gold cheap) Brown running around saying the sky is falling and it is all because of the GFC, so lets start printing money! While at it lets also fight the evils of climate change with our terminally fractured economies to also help divert the publics attention from decades of poor government. Love this: BA about to strike over Xmas, what more need one say about the UK self destruct mindset?

Barak (Peace prize for waging war) Obama, way out of his league listening to his army of Goldman Sachs bankers advising how to help....err bankers. But of course it wasn't the Fed bubble ineptitude or government overspending, it was the evil GFC that mysteriously came out of no where, who could have known?

And of course Thailand, not as affected as much as the welfare heavy brain dead west yet, but exports down and tourism down. Tourism is down for many reasons not just the GFC but hey, lets blame it anyway. So what about airport closures, street riots, ripoffs supported by the police and bureaucracy, rising costs, poor service, xenophobia, pollution, taxi mafias, beatings, overt racism, King Power, murders of tourists, poor press, internationally reported arrests of tourists etc etc.

No it has nothing do do with Thailand at all... it is really the GFC. And as long as this attitude exists nothing will be fixed, it has run like this for decades (as many others here know) but there were always more suckers to replace the ripped off not coming again so business just kept rolling along. However I suspect Thailand may have passed its peak, that with good attitudes and service could be maintained in a competitive world for quite a while, however that will never happen, just arrive at Bangkok airport and see the disaster what awaits you.

[rohitsuk]

Thainomics - if volume falls just increase margin and you will make even more money !

What is so amazing about that? You obviously don't know anything about economics do you?

It is a very possible situation depending on the goods or service and location.

Not a lot, just a First from Oxford in PPE and a Havard MBA. You a Cambridge and Yale man are you ?

I would be fascinated to read a parallel case study to the present Thai Tourism situation, which shows a corresponding fall in volume produced greater revenue from increased margin. Let me know if you find one.

No, you are erecting a straw man.

Your original statement implied the usual practice for Thai business is to raise prices when volume falls. This is incorrect, although it may be true that SOME business do indeed do just that.

If you don't understand why it may be beneficial for SOME business to do that then I don't think you were paying attention during the "E" part of your degree.

Also, if you believe that the majority of Thai business raise their prices when volume falls, you are just disillusioned. That is why your comments relating to case studies of the entire tourism situation are irrelevant.

Dearie me but you are a sad fellow madjbs. Your comments seem entirely focused on what you perceive to be my abilities or the lack of them, through which you want to invalidate my observation and divert my challenge to produce the proof - a parallel case study. According to you I am not just wrong but actually, "disillusioned" and so in a much worse state than ever I realised. Thank you for that. Do at least learn to attack the issue and not the individual with whom you may disagree.

Quite what drum you are beating I am not sure but were your attempts to lecture me not quite so absurd, they might almost be faintly amusing. It requires no more than native wit to realise that my original remarks were not entirely serous and most certainly did not constitute an attempt at academic analysis of the Thai economy. I get paid to do that.

It is the common proof of experience with many foreign residents of Thailand that the frequent response to falling number of customers, is simply to increase prices and this may well extend from the corner noodle seller to Thai Airways. Even you admit that "some" Thai businesses do this, whereas I made no mention of quantities merely quipped, "Thainomics". Did that not alert you to at least the possibility that I may not have been entirely serious ? No, obviously not.

I am extremely reluctant to offer advice to anyone whom I do not know very well but I will break that rule for you. Do try to take this forum, any given issue and yourself somewhat less seriously dear boy and you may yet find it more beneficial, even enjoyable.

You fly away now madjbs and insult someone else, I have taken my share.

[Brunus]

We were checking out the price of Xmas dinner at a 5* BKK hotel for some famil coming over from the UK. Since their last trip two years ago the cost of the dinner is up 20% in baht terms and is double in sterling terms. So who's going to come when prices have doubled in real terms in just two years and better deals are available elsewhere?

What a classic Brit comment.

Sterling collapses and the conclusion is that prices everywhere else have gone up in 'REAL' terms. The baht on a trade weighted basis is actually slightly lower than 2 years ago.

Brits can, of course, stay at home, go to the a 5* hotel (say the Dorchester) and pay Bt15,000 a head (ex alcohol).

I think this guy just explained why he is not coming to Thailand for Xmas. It's not his fault if the cost of the dinner is up 20% in baht terms since 2 years ago, it's not his fault if sterling collapsed, and it's not his fault if Thai government has done nothing to prevent the baht to be such a strong currency. Instead of blaming him for going somewhere else, you should blame who should take intelligent decisions to prevent this and doesn't do it.

[madjbs]

rohitsuk,

Ok, that just confirms my suspicions. You are unable to respond to the points raised.

Here they are again.

-Implying that the average tourism business raises prices when volume is down is wrong.

-There are very good reasons why SOME business may raise prices when volume is down.

You complain about ME not focusing on your claims (which I did), but then your entire last post has nothing to do with the discussion WHATSOEVER. The fact that part of your original post was censored gives us a good indication of your motives/agenda.

Edited December 15, 2009 by madjbs