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Where will Thaksin end up - literally?

By Tulsathit Taptim

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- It is clear that this is not the upheaval that Thaksin Shinawatra was hoping for. But what he plans to do next is as foggy as the air in Chiang Mai at the moment.

On Wednesday, in the face of setbacks, he was belligerent, asking the dwindling numbers of red shirts at the Phan Fah Bridge to hold on for just one more week, after which, he promised, they would be tasting a sweet victory.

Reports indicated that fresh funds have been shipped in to bolster the sagging campaign. Though most of the protesters came to Bangkok with "pure hearts" - as the organisers have insisted - they still have to eat and support the ones they've left behind.

A lot of the red shirts have deserted the rally, and considering the official breakaway of hardliners led by ex-communist Surachai Sae Dan and fugitive Jakrapob Penkair, as well as the backlash of the blood protest, the movement needs urgent and drastic re-engineering.

Though how this will be done is an urgent question, an even more immediate issue has to do with Thaksin's whereabouts. Public and media curiosity aside, his political movement is badly distracted by questions about where he has been and the government's claims that he has been kicked out of the United Arab Emirates.

During his phone-in on Wednesday night, Thaksin vowed to return to the UAE port city of Dubai very soon to prove that the Foreign Ministry was lying.

He said he was in Montenegro for business, and photos circulated online yesterday did indeed show him and his children in that country.

So, what has really happened? Without access to flight and immigration records, one can only speculate.

SCENARIO ONE

Here's Thaksin's side of the story: He innocently left Dubai for Montenegro to inspect a hotel renovation after deciding to plunge into property investment there. The trip unfortunately coincided with an earlier Thai government protest to the UAE Embassy that he was using Dubai as a political base to undermine the Bangkok administration.

Loophole: Leaving Dubai for another staggering business investment at a time when his "slave" protesters were sleeping on the streets and shedding blood?

SCENARIO TWO

He has been staying in Cambodia to be in a better position to guide (or command, if you will) the red shirts. The Montenegro photos could be old ones. He wasn't expelled from the UAE and is about to return to rub it in the Foreign Ministry's face.

Loophole: AFP reported Thaksin had been spotted in Montenegro just a few days ago, and later the Montenegrin police confirmed he was there. Nobody has seen him in Cambodia lately.

SCENARIO THREE

The same as Scenario Two, except he came to Cambodia after being booted out of Dubai.

Loophole: He might pop up in Dubai today or tomorrow.

SCENARIO FOUR

A mix of Scenarios One and Two. He had come to Cambodia and, after learning that his location was being compromised (a lot of news reports were speculating that he was in Cambodia), he flew off to Montenegro and pretended to have been there all along. He wasn't expelled by the UAE and is poised to embarrass the Foreign Ministry in a day or two.

Loophole: Nobody has really seen him in Cambodia lately.

SCENARIO FIVE

The same as Scenario Four except he has actually been ousted from Dubai.

Loophole: Nobody has really seen him in Cambodia lately and he has been very defiant about returning to the UAE.

SCENARIO SIX

Doesn't have much to do with where he was, but whether he was really kicked out by the UAE. In this scenario, he was really asked to leave, which explains why he wasn't "quite there" for his followers at the beginning of their most crucial campaign to save him. But according to this scenario he will be able to return to Dubai after lobbying or negotiating with his long-time hosts.

Loophole: Too much diplomatic flip-flopping for comfort.

-- The Nation 2010-03-19

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[yoshiwara]

Thaksin is not all there right now is he?

[davee58]

Neither is Elvis...

[costalot]

Where will Thaksin end up - literally?

Why, the crem , as do most Thais. Or maybe buried standing up, as is the Chinese way.

Question is, do we wait for him to die first?

[basjke]

Scenario 7: He has never been out of Thailand and stays at the Nation's head quarters.Actually he is the editor in charge and all that yellow talk is just a cover.

Loophole:The board of the Nation is just too scared of him to let that happen.

[Khutan]

I am sure there is a photo of Thaksin and Elvis somewhere - even if it is a product of Photoshop.

[PeaceBlondie]

I don't care, but it keeps folks on Thai Visa.

[onlooker]

Given that the Montengran police confirmed Thaksin was in Montengro, I dont see why The Nation are still clinging to the hope that he might have been in Cambodia instead.

Unless of course, they are simply stirring things - which is highly likely.

[Artisi]

The Nation seems to cling to whatever sells papers or gets a response on Thai Visa - whatever the truth of the article maybe.

It is probable once Thaksin dissapears off the scene for good the Nation will probably need to close its doors as they will have nothing to report.

Edited March 19, 2010 by Artisi

[saintofsilence]

He will end up in the monkey house eventually it is very likely that he is being monitored by US intelligent agencys and I am sure that if he slips up or they consider him some type of threat they will have him as quick as it takes eat his chocolate cake.

Look at the type of world we live in today since 9/11 people who encourage others to create violence are on US watch lists.

[Thai at Heart]

Given that the Montengran police confirmed Thaksin was in Montengro, I dont see why The Nation are still clinging to the hope that he might have been in Cambodia instead.

Unless of course, they are simply stirring things - which is highly likely.

Coz Kasit said he was there.

The government has no idea where Thaksin is from day to day. They have no one to tip them off, and they are pretty much on their own in caring about where this guy goes. There are some countries that have put a ban on him, but they aren't that numerous and he is pretty much free to go where he wants.

I don't know why anyone believes that they are competent enough to find out where he is let alone capable.

I have a sneaking suspicion that he will be back in Thailand in the next 5 years at the latest. Most probably with a pardon and sitting as PM again.

Edited March 19, 2010 by Thai at Heart

[shawndoc]

This isn't really news. This is just a column with no new information designed to stir the pot.

[givenall]

He will end up in the monkey house eventually it is very likely that he is being monitored by US intelligent agencys and I am sure that if he slips up or they consider him some type of threat they will have him as quick as it takes eat his chocolate cake.

Look at the type of world we live in today since 9/11 people who encourage others to create violence are on US watch lists.

There are no limits to this man stupidity. They way he acts and runs this campaign will have a disastrous result that he will not be safe in any country and eventually someone either waste a bullet or he will go to jail for much longer than 2 years.

For his money, what money nothing will be given back to him or his family.

I also think his family will be exiled from Thailand too

[Capantha]

Reckon he'll end up in the looney bin swatting imaginary flies.

[connel707]

Given that the Montengran police confirmed Thaksin was in Montengro, I dont see why The Nation are still clinging to the hope that he might have been in Cambodia instead.

Unless of course, they are simply stirring things - which is highly likely.

Coz Kasit said he was there.

The government has no idea where Thaksin is from day to day. They have no one to tip them off, and they are pretty much on their own in caring about where this guy goes. There are some countries that have put a ban on him, but they aren't that numerous and he is pretty much free to go where he wants.

I don't know why anyone believes that they are competent enough to find out where he is let alone capable.

I have a sneaking suspicion that he will be back in Thailand in the next 5 years at the latest. Most probably with a pardon and sitting as PM again.

HaHa...WHAT DO YOU MEAN "THEY AR`NT THAT NUMEROUS"....He cannot go to any EEC country, cannot go to any commonwealth country, cannot go to USA or Canada, cannot go to Japan or Australia... chooses not to return home to Thailand... What other civilised country is worth going to....Argentina....... haha off with you...

[slapout]

capantha; wishful thinking on your and my part. I agree that there seem to be several of the more vocal politicians here, and abroad, who have left for various reasons, who would fit in quite well with the institution depicted in 'One flew over the cuckoos nest'

There are real doubts that they could interact/fit in with the inmates/doctors/caretakers of said institutions, so maybe its best they are left to roam in their world of fantasy.

[scorecard]

Given that the Montengran police confirmed Thaksin was in Montengro, I dont see why The Nation are still clinging to the hope that he might have been in Cambodia instead.

Unless of course, they are simply stirring things - which is highly likely.

Coz Kasit said he was there.

The government has no idea where Thaksin is from day to day. They have no one to tip them off, and they are pretty much on their own in caring about where this guy goes. There are some countries that have put a ban on him, but they aren't that numerous and he is pretty much free to go where he wants.

I don't know why anyone believes that they are competent enough to find out where he is let alone capable.

I have a sneaking suspicion that he will be back in Thailand in the next 5 years at the latest. Most probably with a pardon and sitting as PM again.

HaHa...WHAT DO YOU MEAN "THEY AR`NT THAT NUMEROUS"....He cannot go to any EEC country, cannot go to any commonwealth country, cannot go to USA or Canada, cannot go to Japan or Australia... chooses not to return home to Thailand... What other civilised country is worth going to....Argentina....... haha off with you...

And not really welcome in China. And you might note he hasn't been to Singapore for a long time, maybe for a reason?

[Samuian]

Imho: He will try to slip into the pale shadow of Ace Rothstein, in the new Montenegrin remake of "Casino" and in this version get done by the Albanian Mob !

[animatic]

Where will Thaksin end up?

Wallowing in faux self pity in some resort town when the self-induced stroke comes...

This bloke creates stress for himself in gargantuan prortions to any valid issues he could have.

His perceived loss of face makes him worry he can never get it back.

No one would jump through, of force others to jump through, the hoops he does

without a truly tortuously driven mindset behind it all. So sad.

More money than Crosious and yet it can NEVER satisfy...

[noahvail]

capantha; wishful thinking on your and my part. I agree that there seem to be several of the more vocal politicians here, and abroad, who have left for various reasons, who would fit in quite well with the institution depicted in 'One flew over the cuckoos nest'

There are real doubts that they could interact/fit in with the inmates/doctors/caretakers of said institutions, so maybe its best they are left to roam in their world of fantasy.

Ah, but that's one of the reasons they invented Thorazine

[ballpoint]

Where will Thaksin end up - literally?

Sitting in a bunker there behind his wall

Waiting for the worms to come.

In perfect isolation there behind his wall

Waiting for the worms to come.

Waiting to cut out the deadwood.

Waiting to pour blood on the city.

Waiting to follow the worms.

Waiting to put on a red shirt.

Waiting to weed out the weaklings.

Waiting to smash in their windows

And kick in their doors.

Waiting for the final solution

To strengthen the strain.

Waiting to follow the worms.

Waiting to turn on the showers

And fire the ovens.

Waiting for the queens and the Dems

and the yellows and the Prems.

Waiting to follow the worms.

Would you like to see Thaksin

Rule again, my friend?

All you have to do is follow the worms.

Would you like to send our farang cousins

Home again, my friend?

All you need to do is follow the worms.

(Apologies to Mr Floyd)

[brahmburgers]

Yet another rambling speculation by a Nation writer. It's not so important where the scoundrel is.

As for Dubai, simple; he was asked to leave. However, when you ask a former guest to leave, you usually give them a few moments to pack their bags. Thaksin left in a hurry after indications by UAE authorities that it would be better if he left. Thaksin asked if he could come back to briefly wrap up some loose ends. They said 'yes, but please make it brief, as we're feeling pressure from the Thai government.'

So, when Thaksin returns to Dubai to get his toothbrush and sliver of soap on a rope, he can thumb his nose at Thai authorities and say, "I told you so, na na na na na, I'm back in Dubai and you said it would never happen. You're wrong. I'm right."

Why does it seem that all the major players in the Thaksin debacle are acting like naughty 5 year olds?

[stub]

Has anyone, apart from the press, actually claimed that Taksin was expelled or kicked out of UAE?

I've only recall hearing he was 'requested to leave', and the only denial was 'not expelled'. It seems nobody is lying about what happened, but to the press there still seems some confusion.

[TonyH]

My recomendations for Taksins world tour for class struggle and freedom would be:

a) Iran

2) Afghanistan

3) Northern Uganda

4) South Lebanon

5) Darfur

6) Chechen Provinve in Russia

I am sure they have very nice chocolate cakes and coffee in these lovely places!

[Wolfie]

I have had cause to remove some posts where made-up/slang names have been used when referring to the person in question - please remember to use the correct names for people - further posts will be deleted without notice - thanks!

[johnh101]

I read yesterday that Thaksin had been granted Montenegrin Citizenship, if this is true, surely he can never even dream about being PM again......... he's now a Farang and I am pretty sure the constitution wouldn't allow that.

[onlooker]

^ I'll give that post 5 minutes max before being deleted. But probably a correct assumption.

[Wolfie]

^ I'll give that post 5 minutes max before being deleted. But probably a correct assumption.

I dont think it even lasted that long

Formal Warning to all - please keep the Royal House out of Politics - the next reference of this nature will result in a 3 days suspension - thanks!

[Thai at Heart]

^ I'll give that post 5 minutes max before being deleted. But probably a correct assumption.

Was a bit of an eye opener, but probably more likely than Thaksin ever seeing the inside of a Thai jail.

[gemini81]

there are even more scenarios than that! each 3rd world country is an additional scenario. He has resident/citizen visas in many places. Wonder how long he can keep diggin' himself into a hole, burnin' more bridges than a pyromaniac along the way, before all of this nonsense cathces up with him.