Spreaders of Conspiracy Theories: Unmasking the Motivations Behind the Lies

[george]

SET continues slump with 3% fall

BANGKOK: -- The Stock Exchange of Thailand yesterday continued its decline from before the start of the three-day Songkran break, as the confrontation between the red-shirt demonstrators and the government drags on.

The SET Index declined 24.74 points or 3.25 per cent to 736.16 - the lowest closing level since March 15 - on turnover of Bt29.8 billion.

SCB Securities said it was possible the index could fall to 700-720 points next week, as the potential existed for unexpected incidents to happen on the political front.

Foreign investors yesterday remained net sellers, with their sales exceeding their buys by Bt1.45 billion. Local institutional investors and brokerage houses' proprietary accounts were also net sellers. Local retail investors were net buyers, at Bt2 billion.

Despite the sell-offs on Monday and yesterday, foreign investors remain net buyers to the tune of Bt42.66 billion so far this year.

Nader Naeimi, a Sydney-based investment strategist at AMP Capital Investors, which oversees about US$90 billion (Bt2.9 trillion) globally, told Bloomberg that the instability was creating a massive risk premium.

"We don't think valuation is compelling to have that kind of risk. The Thai share market will continue to struggle," Naeimi said.

Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said on Thursday that if the prolonged conflict were not solved within a few days, or at most in a few weeks, it could pull down 2010 gross domestic product by as much as 2 percentage points.

Korn cited the tarnished confidence among foreign travellers, let alone the negative consequences on consumer confidence.

However, he insisted the government would not yield to the demonstrators' push for House dissolution, as that would not result in long-term political stability.

"The political situation is hurting consumer and investor sentiment," Sukkawat Prasurtying, who oversees about $150 million as chief investment officer in Bangkok at Manulife Asset Management (Thailand), told Bloomberg. "Things will go back to normalcy as soon as we get through politics."

Other Asian stock markets also fell yesterday, dragging the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down from a 20-month high, after China announced measures - including higher down payments for some home purchases - to cool its property market, US jobless claims unexpectedly rose and commodity prices dropped. Possible overheating is expected in China, as it announced first-quarter economic growth of 11.9 per cent.

Due to the prolonged domestic conflict, Korn said he expected the Monetary Policy Committee, which convenes on Wednesday, to take the political factor into consideration.

Many research houses believe the policy interest rate will not be raised at the MPC meeting, but they share the view that it could be hiked in June. The rate has remained unchanged at 1.25 per cent since April last year.

"The complicated political situation, which is unlikely to end quickly, will be a major risk to Thai economic growth. Meanwhile, in the short term, inflationary pressure will remain low. Rate normalisation could take place thereafter, when the time is more appropriate," said Kasikorn Research Centre (KResearch).

The research house said the political fallout could shave 0.2-1.5 percentage points off economic growth this year, due to lower confidence among the private sector, lower domestic spending, a drop in the tourism sector and a slowdown in public spending.

In the worst-case scenario, if the government is unable to hang on to power, growth could be only 3.5 per cent. However, if a solution to the conflict is found soon, the limited impact could allow growth to rise to 6 per cent.

"The baht could weaken due to the political conflict and a delayed [interest] rate hike, but it would be supported by the appreciation of most regional currencies," KResearch said. Singapore recently widened the trading band of its dollar.

KResearch expects more volatility in baht trading, and its appreciation to be less than that for other Asian currencies.

The baht traded at 32.25 per dollar as of 4.03pm yesterday in Bangkok, from 32.26 in offshore trading and unchanged from a week ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched 32.14 on Monday, the strongest level since May 2008.

-- The Nation 2010-04-17

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[el jefe]

So the SET declined 3.25%. Using EEM as a proxy for all emerging markets, the decline yesterday was 2.93%. Not significantly different. Asian currencies and markets are in better shape than their western counterparts, imho.

[farangguy]

So the SET declined 3.25%. Using EEM as a proxy for all emerging markets, the decline yesterday was 2.93%. Not significantly different. Asian currencies and markets are in better shape than their western counterparts, imho.

I don't think EEM is a proper proxy for all emerging markets because it trades until 4PM New York time while Asian markets are already closed when New York opens.

It was a bad day for the American markets which does not portend well for Asian markets on Monday and that is *part* of the reason EEM did so poorly on Friday.

[farangguy]

TOKYO (AP) -- Asian markets fell in early trading Monday as financial stocks tumbled amid news of fraud charges against Goldman Sachs.

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average lost 1.8 percent to 10,901.33 and South Korea's Kospi retreated 1.3 percent to 1,711.99. Stock markets in Australia, mainland China, Taiwan and Singapore were also sharply lower.

Financial names came under intense selling pressure in Asia, with Japanese banking shares among the heaviest casualties. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. plunged 4.4 percent and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.was down 3.3 percent.

Today's Asian selloff was partially due to the Goldman news released after the Asian markets closed on Friday. This news was reflected in EEM on Friday but not in the actual Asian stock indexs.