Thailand Could Deteriorate Into Undeclared Civil War

[givenall]

It is nice to know that rest of the world is concerned about Thailand's welfare. I just wonder how their involvement will expedite a solution. Particularly since many overseas observers don't have the slightest clue what is below the intense superficial conflicts.

This is what happens when all side are not willing to compromise and only looking for their own interests, Thaksin, Yellow, and Red shirt alike. This is a country of everyone for themselves, Including you and I

There are no discipline that Democracy has a price, including giving your life for it

[Jerrytheyoung]

Thailand falling into civil war - no chance, Bangkok, the army and the Monarchy would never allow it.

Talk of such things is, as mjnaus puts it, just a daily dose of drama.

/..../

Tom.

This is where you are wrong: Army and Police are deeply divided, some officers are supporting actively one of the two sides and if there is not a "setting to Neutral" operation, the following months are going to be a serie of "cleaning operations". So, some to protect themselves may enter in open insurrection if the events are inciting to....

(read New Mandala or outside informations... not 100% reliable but will mitigate your position)

The army and Police have to be neutral????? Ummm some people say the most staggering things. Define Neutral??? I guess letting Mob Rule and Anarchy reign is your definition

Army and police are divided; if one side is taking the power, the other side fear a "cleaning'. you are walking on eggs.

you have to work by successive small corrective actions if you do not want the whole system burst.

And since the beginning of this crisis, I have stated that it was the job of professional POLICE Anti Riot Forces not of Army which should stay neutral, symbol of Unity for ALL Thais. (And definitively my argument is more important because it is a conscrit army)

Edited May 1, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[fairandbalanced]

International observers, maybe from other ASEAN nations could calm tensions and bring all sides to the negotiating table, but will the current powers that be accept this?

Only a few days ago, FM Kasit ruled out 'foreign involvement' in this crisis and Deputy PM Suthep refused an offer of UN assistance in 'The South' last year.

What are they going to observe? Will the black brigade call them to ride along when they mount a grenade attack? Will they be invited to watch as the reds storm hospitals, government offices, and private enterprises. Will they be allowed access to the protest site, and be able to monitor elections and prevent cash for votes? Or are they just there to supervise the army? International observers are useless because a lot of what the reds do is done secretly at night so they can hide their involvement.

And I suppose the 'reds' are the only ones that make deals in the middle of the night and behind closed doors??? The military/PAD/elites are just as guilty (if not more) of doing secret deals and working in the shadows!!

By involving international partners and NGOs and by having open discussions and debates, in which people from all sides can take part in, coupled with a less restrictive press, we may actually be able to pull ourselves back from the brink.

[TheItaliann]

I love when people start mentioning Gordon Brown, like he or this silly non profit group have a clue about anything. Gordon Brown sold most of the UK's gold reserves at 300 usd an oz not too long ago. Very smart guy!

[Jerrytheyoung]

i agree with everything you've suggested would be a good way out of this mess.

however- reds have shown they are not prepared to engage in negotiations; if ptp had agreed to negotiate constetution months ago we could be having elections now and none of this take place, instead they chose to do as they have done in hope to seize power.

-also democrat can now see reds weakening and so might not see the need. but i expect abhisit would go along if idea was floated from on high,; possably after another month reds would accept this, but by then gov will have even less reason to deal,

gov of today mayaswell sit it out and let the reds destroy themselves, with hindsight of a few month the population who have upset because of inaction will see how result came about peacefully anf forgive or be more support for gov.

i would like to see dems continue till end of thier term so policies like free education and pensions can be felt by those who presently oppose them

Red Shirts must not be underestimated. I do think they are aware on the deteriorating situation. IMHO, something will happen soon. They are certainly working on that.

Obviously they are not yet in a concession mind which confort my opinion, we should expect new developments and this will bring us closer to the critical point.

Edited May 1, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[personchester]

I heard Explosion around Sukhumvit 21, Time to get out soon. The Government has failed to do its duty, Anarchy coming fast

What are you suggesting? getting out of BKK, or out of Thailand as a whole, the former would probably make sense, or perhaps just move into a more secure district within BKK.

On the other hand, British expats of a certain age will know how to deal with this, they will stay put, fasten their helmets and go behind a parapet wall.

[TheOldWolf]

Have you read the report? In my opinion it is a very poor one.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia...t-thailand.aspx

"Local efforts at mediation have failed. Civil society groups brought the government and the protesters together but the talks faltered over when to dissolve parliament. The Red Shirts offered a 30-day deadline; Abhisit was only willing to agree to go to the polls within nine months. The fault lines are widening between the establishment – an amalgam of elderly courtiers, powerful generals and many middle class supporters – and the protesters, many of whom support former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra."

[enginerevision]

We have to ask ourselves: does a Western style democracy work in an Asian country?

[elcent]

http://schema-root.org/region/asia/southea...a/thailand/ good place to chose articles from various international news sources - Enjoy! Edited May 1, 2010 by elcent

[timekeeper]

THE NATION: (17.42) Seh Daeng: Thaksin phoned me and told me to allow access to #Chula hospital (Rajdamri). - via NNA # fb

and i thought the reds had previously said this was not about Thaksin and he's not the boss?

[oldgent]

civil war what is it and where did the term first come from? look up the meaning of civil it dosent make sense to me

[TheItaliann]

We have to ask ourselves: does a Western style democracy work in an Asian country?

Can you just ask yourself instead?

[ChrisY1]

One can't help but notice discourse between the reds already - if the government waits much longer, this is going to develop into a country ruled by "warlords" , occupying different regions - Thailand will have similar situations like in Africa with the "hooties" and the Tooties" fighting for land.

Katthiya is the chap to watch right now, he is probably the most dangerous of the lot. Those many tons of explosives and arms that disappeared from his army barracks are somewhere and his frequent visits with Thaksin in Cambodia show clearly where his loyalty lies. Here is a former General who has burned all bridges behind him with no way back, lots of weapons and an unknown number of loyal soldiers who support him and Thaksin.

The unknown location of those arms and explosives is surely worrying the Abhisit government right now

Then he should be the target!

[personchester]

I love when people start mentioning Gordon Brown, like he or this silly non profit group have a clue about anything. Gordon Brown sold most of the UK's gold reserves at 300 usd an oz not too long ago. Very smart guy!

Yes agreed, moreover, in his latest TV appearance he discribed himself (believe it or not) as a competent and clever economist, but his performance as both Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Prime Minister has been disasterous, let alone the stupid gold sale that costed the Nation many billions of pounds.

It has become convincingly clear during the current election campaign that he is a bit of a nutter, and I am sure the electorate will remove him from No.10, at least lets hope so.

[mccw]

i agree with everything you've suggested would be a good way out of this mess.

however- reds have shown they are not prepared to engage in negotiations; if ptp had agreed to negotiate constetution months ago we could be having elections now and none of this take place, instead they chose to do as they have done in hope to seize power.

-also democrat can now see reds weakening and so might not see the need. but i expect abhisit would go along if idea was floated from on high,; possably after another month reds would accept this, but by then gov will have even less reason to deal,

gov of today mayaswell sit it out and let the reds destroy themselves, with hindsight of a few month the population who have upset because of inaction will see how result came about peacefully anf forgive or be more support for gov.

i would like to see dems continue till end of thier term so policies like free education and pensions can be felt by those who presently oppose them

Red Shirts must not be underestimated. I do think they are aware on the deteriorating situation. IMHO, something will happen soon. They are certainly working on that.

Obviously they are not yet in a concession mind which confort my opinion, we should expect new developments and this will bring us closer to the critical point.

I do not underestimate thier potential for violence and idiocy, indeed i expect much worse to come as they get more desperate, but now the authorities are stopping their excursions and starting to assert themselves and be more confident i think they can ride this out and the reds will loose their support base as they do more and more reprhensible acts.

1-3 more months i give the movement in its current form and then a mopping up opperration of the extreem remnants can take place, including a reshufling of all those police and millitary shown to not be doing thier duty. By the end of the year i'm hopefull thailand will be looking at a brighter future with the ruling coalition set up for a strong performance at the poles

[plachon]

Wouldn't it be odd if the Philippines managed to have a peaceful and civilised election but nobody noticed because everyone is looking at Thailand??

Hahaha, that is impossible.... corruption in the Philippines makes corruption in Thailand look like heaven on earth... and Estrada is running, as well as a billionaire - like Thaksin.

The Philippines used to be one of the wealthiest Asian nations.... now it is one of the poorest thanks to Marcos and to a certain degree "locked in time" Arroyo

Not forgetting the actions of the Catholic Church in keeping poor people ignorant and denying them birth control choices.

[virtualtraveller]

look at the protracted civil wars that have screwed up many African nations, what do they have in common;

a) A slow imperceptible start arising from one dissatisfied group, run by fanatics who are able to arm themselves

A corrupt police force unable to enforce order since there are so many 'leaks' among their numbers

c) A vast majority who aren't war like yet get dragged into it, by having to take sides to survive

d) A number of renegade soldiers with access to weapons that were easily taken from an incompetent army

e) A lot of poor unemployed youth who are easily paid or persuaded to join a revolution, based on lies

f) A lot of uneducated people easily misled with propaganda and false promises

g) A misguided desire for democracy as a front for power hungry individuals seeking to monopolise the money opportunities

h) A poor grade of politicians with seemingly low ethical behaviour

Sound familiar?

[way2muchcoffee]

1-3 more months i give the movement in its current form and then a mopping up opperration of the extreem remnants can take place, including a reshufling of all those police and millitary shown to not be doing thier duty. By the end of the year i'm hopefull thailand will be looking at a brighter future with the ruling coalition set up for a strong performance at the poles

I think it will be much less time than that. I think that will school starting in a couple of weeks there will be enormous pressure on the government to disperse the protesters.

Several of the oldest and most elite Thai schools in the country will be effected: Saint Joseph Convent School, several Assumption schools, Bangkok Christian College, Pathumwan Demonstration School, Mater Dei, Triam Udom Suksa, and many others.

These are old money schools. The parents of children attending these schools are by and large wealthy and connected people. They will not tolerate the threat to the safety of their children that the red shirt demonstrations pose.

Edited May 1, 2010 by way2muchcoffee

[Harry2]

I think it will be much less time than that. I think that will school starting in a couple of weeks there will be enormous pressure on the government to disperse the protesters.

Several of the oldest and most elite Thai schools in the country will be effected: Saint Joseph Convent School, several Assumption schools, Bangkok Christian College, Pathumwan Demonstration School, Mater Dei, Triam Udom Suksa, and others.

These are old money schools. The parents of children attending these schools are by and large wealthy and connected people. They will not tolerate the threat to the safety of their children that the red shirt demonstrations pose.

Brilliant - lets have a massacre of democracy demonstrators in central Bangkok that would likely spark a civil war - in order to ensure the '''''elite'''' children's school term begins on time.

[way2muchcoffee]

Brilliant - lets have a massacre of democracy demonstrators in central Bangkok that would likely spark a civil war - in order to ensure the '''''elite'''' children's school term begins on time.

They are not democracy demonstrators. They are criminals, insurrectionists, and terrorists.

And it isn't just the elite parents who will be demanding action from the government. Middle class and poor families love their children as well. In fact, much of Bangkok is demanding an end to the protests.

Edited May 1, 2010 by way2muchcoffee

[ozzieman05]

International observers, maybe from other ASEAN nations could calm tensions and bring all sides to the negotiating table, but will the current powers that be accept this?

Only a few days ago, FM Kasit ruled out 'foreign involvement' in this crisis and Deputy PM Suthep refused an offer of UN assistance in 'The South' last year.

Thai pride and culture would never let outsides make idea above them

All these statement are shallow and worthless

If you want this all to end

Over governments need to say that they believe the Thai Government have the right buy law to clean this mess up with their own armed forces

Once the red shirts realise they do not have the out side world on their side and think the army has the right to uphold the law

they will run like chicken

hopefully leaving the Red shirt thugs to face justice

But do not count on it

[Old Man River]

I think that will school starting in a couple of weeks there will be enormous pressure on the government to disperse the protesters.

If the Army doesn't act to break up the separate country in the middle of Bangkok (Redtown) then there will be enormous pressure on Abhisit to either dissolve parliament and bring in a national unity type of government (of existing MP's) in the interim or put together some other type of political solution and quick.

If not, then the job falls to Newin and his group along with Chamlong and his group.

[Merangue]

Brilliant - lets have a massacre of democracy demonstrators in central Bangkok that would likely spark a civil war - in order to ensure the '''''elite'''' children's school term begins on time.

They are not democracy demonstrators. They are criminals, insurrectionists, and terrorists.

And it isn't just the elite parents who will be demanding action from the government. Middle class and poor families love their children as well. In fact, much of Bangkok is demanding the same.

Utter Drivel

The vast majority of red shirts are ordinary people. There may be a small number of nasty undesirables amongst them ( amongst the other sides as well mind you ) but the idea of a massacre in order to allow a school term to start on time is just as repugnant if not more so than an invasion of a hospital.

It would appear that whatever colour shirt you might wear you show your true colours in your words.

[way2muchcoffee]

I think that will school starting in a couple of weeks there will be enormous pressure on the government to disperse the protesters.

If the Army doesn't act to break up the separate country in the middle of Bangkok (Redtown) then there will be enormous pressure on Abhisit to either dissolve parliament and bring in a national unity type of government (of existing MP's) in the interim or put together some other type of political solution and quick.

If not, then the job falls to Newin and his group along with Chamlong and his group.

Indeed. I think we can all agree though that a peaceful solution would by far be the best for everyone.

[way2muchcoffee]

Brilliant - lets have a massacre of democracy demonstrators in central Bangkok that would likely spark a civil war - in order to ensure the '''''elite'''' children's school term begins on time.

They are not democracy demonstrators. They are criminals, insurrectionists, and terrorists.

And it isn't just the elite parents who will be demanding action from the government. Middle class and poor families love their children as well. In fact, much of Bangkok is demanding the same.

Utter Drivel

The vast majority of red shirts are ordinary people. There may be a small number of nasty undesirables amongst them ( amongst the other sides as well mind you ) but the idea of a massacre in order to allow a school term to start on time is just as repugnant if not more so than an invasion of a hospital.

It would appear that whatever colour shirt you might wear you show your true colours in your words.

Correction. They vast majority of red shirts were ordinary people. Then they chose to join a violent demonstration in which they murdered security forces and defied a state of emergency. Their organization has grown increasingly violent and is committing terrorist-like and/or violent acts on an almost daily basis. They are holding a large and important part of the capitol city of Thailand hostage. They have had every opportunity to leave the area. Anyone remaining is no longer an innocent, ordinary person. The ordinary people who are red shirt supporters have already left these demonstrations.

Please understand. In no way am I advocating going in and killing thousands. Negotiations must be the highest priority. But if these aren't successful then there will be no choice. The government cannot allow the capitol city to be taken hostage for much longer.

Edited May 1, 2010 by way2muchcoffee

[yesdavy]

Boy, people do love their daily dose of drama, don't they?

Amen, brother. Too much time on their hands.

[Sheryl]

Keep it civil, folks and don't start getting personal.

[jts-khorat]

1-3 more months i give the movement in its current form and then a mopping up opperration of the extreem remnants can take place, including a reshufling of all those police and millitary shown to not be doing thier duty. By the end of the year i'm hopefull thailand will be looking at a brighter future with the ruling coalition set up for a strong performance at the poles

I think it will be much less time than that. I think that will school starting in a couple of weeks there will be enormous pressure on the government to disperse the protesters.

Several of the oldest and most elite Thai schools in the country will be effected: Saint Joseph Convent School, several Assumption schools, Bangkok Christian College, Pathumwan Demonstration School, Mater Dei, Triam Udom Suksa, and many others.

These are old money schools. The parents of children attending these schools are by and large wealthy and connected people. They will not tolerate the threat to the safety of their children that the red shirt demonstrations pose.

I thought the same of the owners of the five star hotels and shopping malls in Rajprasong; little did their connections move anything towards decisive action.

[yesdavy]

The red shirts and the government should get together and look at the opportunity they have here. They have an increasing number of countries getting concerned and wanting to help. The reds can develop their sympathisers and the government can develop theirs, then they the milk them for all the tea money in China to get things resolved. "We need this. If we had this, etc."

Then again, maybe it makes good economic sense to those calling the shots on both sides to prolong this expensive chess match.

Edited May 1, 2010 by yesdavy

[Old Man River]

I think that will school starting in a couple of weeks there will be enormous pressure on the government to disperse the protesters.

If the Army doesn't act to break up the separate country in the middle of Bangkok (Redtown) then there will be enormous pressure on Abhisit to either dissolve parliament and bring in a national unity type of government (of existing MP's) in the interim or put together some other type of political solution and quick.

If not, then the job falls to Newin and his group along with Chamlong and his group.

Indeed. I think we can all agree though that a peaceful solution would by far be the best for everyone.

Thanong has written and article and he does make a key point. The Reds appear to now be controlled by Chavalit and Khattiya. They provide all the security to the Reds and it was obvious today when Jatuporn, Nattawut, Weng et.al. couldn't control the Red Guards. These people don't report to Jatuporn et. al. despite tonight's comments by Jatuporn that people should listen to the "core leaders" not Khattiya. Apparently, the core leaders of the Reds have lost control just as Abhisit has lost control.