Avian Flu Outbreak Could Kill 500,000

Avian flu outbreak could kill 500,000

WASHINGTON: -- More than a half-million people could die and more than 2.3 million could be hospitalized if a moderately severe strain of pandemic flu virus hits the United States, a research group said Friday.

The report from the Trust for America’s Health assumes that 25 percent of the country’s population would become infected if a strain of avian flu became highly contagious and humans had no natural immunity against it.

It estimated that 11,817 people in Indiana would die and 151,711 would be hospitalized. In Ohio, it said the death toll could reach 23,200.

The researchers assumed the severity of the strain would fall about midway between the pandemic of 1918 and the pandemic of 1968.

The research group says the staggering number of potential deaths and hospitalizations would overwhelm the nation’s health-care system – and displays the need for greater planning and resources.

It’s a message that some lawmakers quickly embraced.

“Unfortunately, the United States is woefully underprepared to respond in the event of a pandemic outbreak,” said Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn. “We have a responsibility to focus much greater energy on preparing for avian influenza and similar public-health threats, whether natural, accidental or intentional in origin.”

Asia’s latest bird-flu outbreak began late last year and has killed 38 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and four in Cambodia. People killed by the flu so far have contracted it from sick birds. The fear is that the virus will mutate to the point that it can be contracted from humans.

Seasonal flu kills an estimated 36,000 to 40,000 people annually in the United States. More than 200,000 people are hospitalized each year because of influenza, and the costs to the national economy is $10 billion, as a result of lost productivity and direct medical expenses.

The Trust for America’s Health called on lawmakers to provide more than the $58 million that they’ve already approved for purchasing influenza countermeasures for a national stockpile. The organization specifically calls for the purchase of more Tamiflu, which it said may be an effective treatment option while scientist worked on a vaccine.

The group estimated that the federal government has ordered 5.3 million courses of Tamiflu for the stockpile, but that it would require about 70 million doses to cover 25 percent of the U.S. population, which is the rate the World Health Organization has recommended.

--AP 2005-06-25