Thailand In The Future

[Deeral]

How do you see Thailand in 10 or 20years time?

Politically – Who will have power, theconstitution

economically - cost of living –industry – tourism - agriculture

demographics.....expat perspective -Who will be here - who won't?

Etc etc................

Sadly a lot of posters won't behere then but nevertheless their families may well be here what doyou want for them?

[gmac]

Personally I don't worry about what I can't change. What happens in the country in the next 10-20 years will happen regardless of what I want or think so I will happily sit back and enjoy it. If it all turns to sh*t and I have to leave so be it, but I'm not going to work myself up into a sweat worrying about it.

[wolf5370]

Well its likely there will be a change in monarch (unless we are blessed and HM makes the third digit - lets hope!) - which may cause some other changes (maybe quite dramatic ones) and maybe not for the best either.

Europe and Ameria will probably be back on top (with the addition of China as a economic superpower).

I think either of two things will happen (and its a real 50:50):

Scenario 1> the status quo will win through and Thailand will loose out to many of it neighbours as they continue to evolve economically and grow. Foreign investment and international business will shun Thailand in favour of its friendlier and more trust worthy neighbours. Thailand will beome more insuler and isolated and revolution or civil war more likely.

Scenario 2> the old guard having died or retired (or absconded abroad/been imprisonned) will have been replaced by a new breed of non-elitist middle classes that will push for reform and the chance to ride the wave of the next economic boom. Thailand will welcome international partners and encourage foreign investment and as a result, stand up well against its neighbours. Its close Ties with America helping to push it into a forward position. Fair treatment of its people, and immigrants will then prevail. Thailand will be a better, wealthier place.

[wolf5370]

Personally I don't worry about what I can't change. What happens in the country in the next 10-20 years will happen regardless of what I want or think so I will happily sit back and enjoy it. If it all turns to sh*t and I have to leave so be it, but I'm not going to work myself up into a sweat worrying about it.

I don't see that the Op was trying to bring about a sweat - or that he cares (or anyone should care) about its future. He was asking for views that's all - if you have none, which I find suprising really, then fine, don't post. Many of us have family here, as the Op said, so we will give a sh*t as it may not be as easy to up roots (or even possible given some visa rules against Thais and the costs involved in setting up homes abroad). Personall I expect to be alive and living here in 20 years, so I too would be interested in other views.

There is a mathmatical proof that shows given enough people, even without knowledge, research or concern, given a question (however unknowable the answer - i.e. forcasting), the closer the combined average condition/answer becomes to the truth (the correct answer). No saying there are enough people here (usually it takes many thousands).

[Deeral]

Thank you Mr Wolf....saved me a couple of posts.

[villagefarang]

Even "I don't give a shit" is still a view and you have no right to say those who hold that view can't post.

I have been here since 1975, and only being in my mid-fifties, will no doubt still be here in twenty more years. Am I going to close my eyes and start throwing darts at a board that may not even be located in the room I'm in? Probably not. If you enjoy science fiction, fortune telling or wild guesses then by all means continue but it seems like nothing more than entertainment to pass a boring day, to me.

[gmac]

Thank you for your support VF, I didn't in fact say that I don't give a shit what happens, what I said was if everything goes to shit then I would have to leave. My comment was more along the lines of your own in that I feel no need to speculate on a future over which I have no control.

[zzaa09]

Thank you for your support VF, I didn't in fact say that I don't give a shit what happens, what I said was if everything goes to shit then I would have to leave. My comment was more along the lines of your own in that I feel no need to speculate on a future over which I have no control.

But then, aren't future fancies all but a bit of a speculation. This angst towards something that hasn't happened yet is purely conjecture. Enjoy one's life for the now, en lieu of romanticism about imaginary control of a time frame that is largely a mystery.

[jaideeguy]

I've been here long enough to know that LOS=Land of surprises and no matter what I think it will be [even tomorrow], it will not be what i expected it to be.

[Shotime]

I don't think anything will change. There will always be unrest over who's running the country, and the poor will remail poor, regardless, I only hope that the dollar starts to rise against the baht. What's up with that, anyway?

Quick edit to add: If there's a world left in 20 years.

[Atmos]

my 20yr forecast - more children rejecting the 'support your family' ethos and looking after themselves.

[ExpatJ]

I think the economy will develop strongly, actually somewhat delinked from the political situation (baring full on civil war, which i see as a tiny/remote possibility). Amazing that during the recent riots the stock exchange and baht remanined strong and the Thai SET infact is one of the best performing in the world this year.

So I predict that Bangkok at least will become more like KL, Singapore e.g. way more expensive cost of living and the expat population will move away from NGO/teacher type expats to the financial/multinational type expats.

[craigt3365]

There is so much economic growth potential here that the country will continue to develop and prosper...like mentioned above, irrespective of political problems. Look at Thailand 20 years ago. What has changed since then? The infrastructure is better, financial systems better, health care is better, etc. This trend will continue into the future.

Like mentioned above, the middle class will start to have more and more power. This happens in all developing countries (except maybe Russia!). I'm amazed at how many red tag cars I see. Thai's still pack the malls, and leave with bags in hand. Restaurants here, South of Pattaya, are packed on the weekends...and parking lots are jammed with BMWs, Mercedes, SUVs, new mini-vans, etc.

Hopefully, they can resolve this red vs. yellow crud. And the monarchy issue will be an interesting one to watch...

But all in all, it will become a more modern, and expensive, country.

[samtam]

I'm inclined to agree with the last two replies. Coming off a lower base as a developing country, growth is likely to be strong inspite of political and social upheaval, riding on the back of general Asian growth, which has strong support from China and India.

I would add to the observations of new cars etc the continued growth of the property sector. In the area in which I live, (Sathorn), there are currently five residential developments I can see (and hear). Three have appeared within the last couple of months. The economy hasn't stopped growing.

[thaifkrlim]

within 10 years , thailand will launch its own rocket with the first thai astronaut financed by mahidol rocket science faculty, to the moon to find no ruins of the american flag pole in place

[maccaroni man]

i believe that in the that time period we will see the results of international education taking hold in the way business is done in thailand. many of todays youth in thailand have been raised to question authority and reason why and how things work at the end of the day if these personalities come into politcal power we may see 1. a measurable change in attitude towards non thais or 2. an increase in corruption either way it will still be a thai way.

[gregb]

There is a mathmatical proof that shows given enough people, even without knowledge, research or concern, given a question (however unknowable the answer - i.e. forcasting), the closer the combined average condition/answer becomes to the truth (the correct answer). No saying there are enough people here (usually it takes many thousands).

This I don't believe even for an instant. Can you please post a link to said proof? I understand things like the central limit theorem, which says that any random distribution will eventually approach a Gaussian as long as the distribution is sufficiently random, but what you are proposing is not even possible, let alone mathematically provable.

Unknown externalities can not be predicted by people, no matter how many you ask. In this case, the big unknown is peak oil. Specifically, when the serious decline in energy reserves will start, and what the reactions of the various players on the world stage will be.

Personally, 20 years from now I expect:

• The world to be caught up in a low grade resource war with no end in sight
  
• Democracy in any country to be a laughably anachronistic concept
  
• Thailand to be allied with China against the Western powers in practice, although technically trying to maintain neutrality
  
• Energy and other commodities rationed, with only the extremely wealthy getting all they want
  
• Starvation and infectious disease outbreaks on a scale that makes today look like a paradise
  
• The poor leaving the cities and returning home to the farms
  
• Endless speeches by those in charge on every side about how they are winning the war and better times are ahead if we just continue to believe in their misanthropic visions
  
• People in every country looking back on the relative prosperity of today with fond memories
  
• Death rates exceeding birth rates for the first time in the last few hundred years.
  

Overall, Thailand will fare better than the West because of more access to farmland and critical resources that can be exploited without large scale industry.

I expect to be dead before any serious structural changes are made in the world that will eventually lead to a return to stability. But hopefully my children will make it through the worst and live to see the start of something better.

This is based on a thorough study of history and what happens to other cultures when their demands exceed their resource base, combined with the physical reality of resource depletion occurring today. I seriously doubt enough people on this site have the perspective to view such grim details without letting their brains cloud their judgement with unreasonable optimism. There is no mathematical theory that can properly account for the psychological discount function that people apply to future consequences of their current actions.

[cardholder]

There is a mathmatical proof that shows given enough people, even without knowledge, research or concern, given a question (however unknowable the answer - i.e. forcasting), the closer the combined average condition/answer becomes to the truth (the correct answer). No saying there are enough people here (usually it takes many thousands).

This I don't believe even for an instant. Can you please post a link to said proof? I understand things like the central limit theorem, which says that any random distribution will eventually approach a Gaussian as long as the distribution is sufficiently random, but what you are proposing is not even possible, let alone mathematically provable.

Unknown externalities can not be predicted by people, no matter how many you ask. In this case, the big unknown is peak oil. Specifically, when the serious decline in energy reserves will start, and what the reactions of the various players on the world stage will be.

Personally, 20 years from now I expect:

• The world to be caught up in a low grade resource war with no end in sight
• Democracy in any country to be a laughably anachronistic concept
• Thailand to be allied with China against the Western powers in practice, although technically trying to maintain neutrality
• Energy and other commodities rationed, with only the extremely wealthy getting all they want
• Starvation and infectious disease outbreaks on a scale that makes today look like a paradise
• The poor leaving the cities and returning home to the farms
• Endless speeches by those in charge on every side about how they are winning the war and better times are ahead if we just continue to believe in their misanthropic visions
• People in every country looking back on the relative prosperity of today with fond memories
• Death rates exceeding birth rates for the first time in the last few hundred years.

Overall, Thailand will fare better than the West because of more access to farmland and critical resources that can be exploited without large scale industry.

I expect to be dead before any serious structural changes are made in the world that will eventually lead to a return to stability. But hopefully my children will make it through the worst and live to see the start of something better.

This is based on a thorough study of history and what happens to other cultures when their demands exceed their resource base, combined with the physical reality of resource depletion occurring today. I seriously doubt enough people on this site have the perspective to view such grim details without letting their brains cloud their judgement with unreasonable optimism. There is no mathematical theory that can properly account for the psychological discount function that people apply to future consequences of their current actions.

Phew !!

I am glad that you are not my drinking partner.

[Deeral]

"Overall, Thailand will fare better than the West because of more access to farmland and critical resources that can be exploited without large scale industry." - serious;y doubt that.<br>Thailand HAS to have a higher growth rate than "westernised" countries - any country that relies on manufacturing for such a large part of it's economy must have exponential growth rates - this is not necessary in Europe.<div><br></div><div>on a world scale water may well be the most crucial commodity.</div><div><br></div><div>thailand whilst being wet, doesn't mange to keep it's water - and the major rivers are already over exploited.<br><br><br>

</div>

[zzaa09]

The future. Subsistence. Self-sufficient. Self-reliant. Social and familial extension. Civilised. The future.....

[Deeral]

The future. Subsistence. Self-sufficient. Self-reliant. Social and familial extension. Civilised. The future.....

Ah! stream of consciousness........much as I like 50s modernist poetry, I'm not sure it has any significance here.

[cardholder]

The future. Subsistence. Self-sufficient. Self-reliant. Social and familial extension. Civilised. The future.....

Similar to the past then ?

[keestha]

One thing I am pretty sure of: in 2030 Burma will have a much bigger tourist industry than Thailand.

And for the next generation of foreign criminals Pattaya won't be a good hiding place anymore, they'll be heading for maybe Papua New Guinea or Madagascar. Those might also be among the countries where counterfeit goods are produced - I remember in the early seventies Taiwan had a reputation for this.

[zzaa09]

The future. Subsistence. Self-sufficient. Self-reliant. Social and familial extension. Civilised. The future.....

Ah! stream of consciousness........much as I like 50s modernist poetry, I'm not sure it has any significance here.

Well it works. Beats the illusion of modern manufactured and fabricated existence. This only applies one needs to be sanitized as what development might be.

[Deeral]

The future. Subsistence. Self-sufficient. Self-reliant. Social and familial extension. Civilised. The future.....

Ah! stream of consciousness........much as I like 50s modernist poetry, I'm not sure it has any significance here.

Well it works. Beats the illusion of modern manufactured and fabricated existence. This only applies one needs to be sanitized as what development might be.

Sorry I didn't realise your poetry had such hidden depths and meaning - quite unlike your other jottings?

[wolf5370]

There is a mathmatical proof that shows given enough people, even without knowledge, research or concern, given a question (however unknowable the answer - i.e. forcasting), the closer the combined average condition/answer becomes to the truth (the correct answer). No saying there are enough people here (usually it takes many thousands).

This I don't believe even for an instant. Can you please post a link to said proof? I understand things like the central limit theorem, which says that any random distribution will eventually approach a Gaussian as long as the distribution is sufficiently random, but what you are proposing is not even possible, let alone mathematically provable.

....

I was not really being that serious (given that such forecasts have too many external influences that themselves are unknown and possible unknowable at the current time - wars, disasters, and so on) - but the mathematics I was hinting at was Bayesian Inference (belief based discrimination) - that states that given enough people (and thus enough 'evidence' or 'considered theories') that the opposing (contradicting) theories will be weighted by the level of support - the greater the support, the more likely it is true. Like I said though, it was meant to be a little tongue in cheek, and yes, like all theories, there are detractors (mostly against the bias in man rather than the mathematical proof). Couldn't be arsed to check for a link, but Google should.

PS: Oh, and why we are in tongue in cheek mode - given Neotic Science, if we all will the economy better, it WILL get better

PPS: Sorry, don't believe your end-is-nigh soothe saying - technology and a move towards philanthropy we have seen over the past century (ignoring wars of course which have always happened) what looks like doom now, is merely opportunity and the need to change and adapt.