Brits Wake Up! Pound To Drop 40% Against Euro?

[chownah]

OK chownah, I'll answer your question here -- we shall skip the explanation as it will be too tedious and tiresome to present!

Try not to get too caught up in these off-road excursions (necessary, but with caveats) for fear of missing the forest for the trees !

If Sterling drops 40% versus Euro

and Sterling versus Dollar is unchanged

then Dollar will drop 40% against Euro?

That is the question, right?

My answer is ...... buuuuuuuuuuuush*t!   

Stated differently & unequivocally,  wrong , wrong , wrong ! 

So once again it appears that I am the only one here who is of this opinion?  ...  Well then,  let the games begin!   

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Since you feel that

If Sterling drops 40% versus Euro

and Sterling versus Dollar is unchanged

then Dollar will drop 40% against Euro?

is wrong, then you tell me in this scenario of pound dropping 40% against euro and pound/dollar unchanged where you think it is likely that the pound/dollar exchange rate could be. If you give me a pound/dollar exchange rate that is not very very close to 40% I will show you how your suggestion is ludicrous.

[Harmonica]

On a different note, remember the British thinktanks's (the guys responsible for generating the idea to start this thread) premise that the Pound/Dollar will be unchanged -- again, buuuuush*it!

Fundamental and Technical clash, yet again!

[TRIPxCORE]

Hi there!

Chownah; you are of course right - a drop of 40% would also mean a drop compared to the Euro.

Many clever heads (Bill Gross, Warren Buffet Etc.) agree with Tripxcore that the USD will continue to weaken towards most other currencies  (I do not count the ones like the Yuan being linked directly to the USD).

Cheers!

These gentlemen are showing billions in losses due to their wrong bet on the Dollar . But they still mouth off incessantly -- but its easy to see that its just sour grapes and sourpusses -- they usually go hand in hand!

Bottomline: they got f*cked! Let's not forget that! The f*ckee always natters and complains about the &lt;deleted&gt;-er.

Will they get f*cked again?

Count on it! During the next major Dollar correction these fellows will come out again and blast the US economy with its trade deficit etc. etc., and they'll say, "see I told you so; the dollar's rise was transitory, fleeting, ephemeral etc., etc. -- then just as they get smug as bugs, the Dollar will blast off into the next trajectory and poy-manently silence them!

I am not sure I am reading this right. Are you claiming to know more than these legends of the investment world? By all means, tell us your name and which company you work for so I can look for stories about you in BusinessWeek. I will look forward to them with much anticipation.

Edited July 19, 2005 by TRIPxCORE

[Harmonica]

OK chownah, I'll answer your question here -- we shall skip the explanation as it will be too tedious and tiresome to present!

Try not to get too caught up in these off-road excursions (necessary, but with caveats) for fear of missing the forest for the trees !

If Sterling drops 40% versus Euro

and Sterling versus Dollar is unchanged

then Dollar will drop 40% against Euro?

That is the question, right?

My answer is ...... buuuuuuuuuuuush*t!    

Stated differently & unequivocally,  wrong , wrong , wrong !  

So once again it appears that I am the only one here who is of this opinion?  ...  Well then,  let the games begin!   

Since you feel that

If Sterling drops 40% versus Euro

and Sterling versus Dollar is unchanged

then Dollar will drop 40% against Euro?

is wrong, then you tell me in this scenario of pound dropping 40% against euro and pound/dollar unchanged where you think it is likely that the pound/dollar exchange rate could be. If you give me a pound/dollar exchange rate that is not very very close to 40% I will show you how your suggestion is ludicrous.

Step by step, 1.7, 1.66, 1.63, 1.55, 1.45 & 1.36 and beyond in a southerly direction!

These are the levels, one at a time that I will be watching for confirmation of my analysis. But to state that there will be no change in the Pound/Dollar is wishful "thoughting" -- knock yourself out with it; your prerogative.

But just for simplicity sake even if there will not be any change in Pound/Dollar hypothetically, I would still say you and your compadres here, as convincing and straightforward as your arithmetic reasoning is, are DEAD wrong! Ancient, archaic, obsolete & simplistic tools are not adequate for the task at hand.

[Harmonica]

Harmonica, do please calm down a bit old chap, you're writing like Phineas T Barnum on acid and its not even lunchtime !

I took a look at the 'they' website. 'Investment and Business news' . I don't like the absence of byline (makes me think they nicked the stories), but they certainly present their facts quite well. I'd like to see their full newsletter.

Aren't you the fella who said he thought this was such a pratty thread and that people were just showing off and gassing around and that it is such a waste of time?

Why are you back? Perhaps to use some more British terms that I don't understand?

[Slingblade333]

I also heard that Microsoft was going to drop 40%.

Oops, I forgot to buy my puts.

Can I make this announcement tomorrow!

[Harmonica]

Hi there!

Chownah; you are of course right - a drop of 40% would also mean a drop compared to the Euro.

Many clever heads (Bill Gross, Warren Buffet Etc.) agree with Tripxcore that the USD will continue to weaken towards most other currencies  (I do not count the ones like the Yuan being linked directly to the USD).

Cheers!

These gentlemen are showing billions in losses due to their wrong bet on the Dollar . But they still mouth off incessantly -- but its easy to see that its just sour grapes and sourpusses -- they usually go hand in hand!

Bottomline: they got f*cked! Let's not forget that! The f*ckee always natters and complains about the &lt;deleted&gt;-er.

Will they get f*cked again?

Count on it! During the next major Dollar correction these fellows will come out again and blast the US economy with its trade deficit etc. etc., and they'll say, "see I told you so; the dollar's rise was transitory, fleeting, ephemeral etc., etc. -- then just as they get smug as bugs, the Dollar will blast off into the next trajectory and poy-manently silence them!

I am not sure I am reading this right. Are you claiming to know more than these legends of the investment world? By all means, tell us your name and which company you work for so I can look for stories about you in BusinessWeek. I will look forward to them with much anticipation.

I don't recall making such a claim -- but, there is no denying that I nailed them all in December with a correct US Dollar (among others) call!

And there is also no denying that I live in LOS, but they don't! That, all by itself says I'm smarter!

As for Businessweek, I leave that to the wildebeast to read, fellas like you who have no mind of their own, but rather just vomit what the powers-that-be pound them with.

Dig?

[~G~]

Harmonica, on this one I will be very surprised if you won't need to admit a mistake... Let's wait and see, eh?

That's the triple currency correlation I refer to - not any prediction.

Edited July 19, 2005 by ~G~

[Firefan]

In all fairness Harmonica did not come with the original claim about the triple currency correlation. It does seem like you defend it, Harmonica?

Anyway; the main message (if I got that right) was that the Sterling should weaken towards the Euro. Sure; that could happen. There is a 50% change for it to happen! But if we are talking 40%(!) slide then the chance is much less...

Bottom line; I find currency speculation facinating but impossible (I might not be smart en'uff ) so I just ensure to be well diversified currency wise. Cheers!

[LivinLOS]

Sorry.. am making no comment on the Euro depreciation but simple basic matsh state if you have 3 vairable with 2 statements a 3rd can be deduced..

if x = y and

y -40% (compared to z, the baseline) then

x = -40% if they stay at the same comparitive level.

Thats the statement being made above.. I make no comment on the Euro gaining 40% on the pound but if USD / GBP rates remain the same then by definition the EUR rate has also gained 40% againts the USD.

Perhaps the initial statement has been misrepresented.. miss communicated.. or miss understood but the above is a fact based on the 3 pieces of information presented.

[~G~]

In all fairness Harmonica did not come with the original claim about the triple currency correlation. It does seem like you defend it, Harmonica?

Anyway; the main message (if I got that right) was that the Sterling should weaken towards the Euro. Sure; that could happen. There is a 50% change for it to happen! But if we are talking 40%(!) slide then the chance is much less...

Bottom line; I find currency speculation facinating but impossible (I might not be smart en'uff ) so I just ensure to be well diversified currency wise. Cheers!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The triple currency correlation I refer to is "If x and y then z" - this does not say anything about the true value of x or y, only about the relationship between them.

[Firefan]

Fully agree G! CHeers!

In all fairness Harmonica did not come with the original claim about the triple currency correlation. It does seem like you defend it, Harmonica?

Anyway; the main message (if I got that right) was that the Sterling should weaken towards the Euro. Sure; that could happen. There is a 50% change for it to happen! But if we are talking 40%(!) slide then the chance is much less...

Bottom line; I find currency speculation facinating but impossible (I might not be smart en'uff ) so I just ensure to be well diversified currency wise. Cheers!

The triple currency correlation I refer to is "If x and y then z" - this does not say anything about the true value of x or y, only about the relationship between them.

[Harmonica]

In all fairness Harmonica did not come with the original claim about the triple currency correlation. It does seem like you defend it, Harmonica?

Anyway; the main message (if I got that right) was that the Sterling should weaken towards the Euro. Sure; that could happen. There is a 50% change for it to happen! But if we are talking 40%(!) slide then the chance is much less...

Bottom line; I find currency speculation facinating but impossible (I might not be smart en'uff ) so I just ensure to be well diversified currency wise. Cheers!

The triple currency correlation I refer to is "If x and y then z" - this does not say anything about the true value of x or y, only about the relationship between them.

OK G -- I'll be ecstatic to be proved wrong and will accept my medicine like a man! But how we are going to duplicate the exact conditions of the TEST?

OK let's say that Pound drops 40% w.r.t. Euro

but there is almost no chance that Pound/Dollar will stay flat.

What then?

At some point down the line I will show you how and why it is erroneous to state that Dollar will lose 40% versus euro based on our discussion parameters.

[Harmonica]

In all fairness Harmonica did not come with the original claim about the triple currency correlation. It does seem like you defend it, Harmonica?

Anyway; the main message (if I got that right) was that the Sterling should weaken towards the Euro. Sure; that could happen. There is a 50% change for it to happen! But if we are talking 40%(!) slide then the chance is much less...

Bottom line; I find currency speculation facinating but impossible (I might not be smart en'uff ) so I just ensure to be well diversified currency wise. Cheers!

The triple currency correlation I refer to is "If x and y then z" - this does not say anything about the true value of x or y, only about the relationship between them.

Firefan,

If you read my opening statement on Page 1 of this thread you will have all the data you need.

But to reiterate, the claim was made by a well-known British thinktank (have no clue as to who they are). At first I had no opinion on the subject of the Pound as I have not dealt with it in the past in trading terms.

But yesterday I posted my opinion and it is in agreement with those fellows w.r.t. Pound dropping -- but I am not agreeing with their Pound/Dollar assertion that there will be no change here.

And as far as the central theme, Pound/Euro is concerned, it is still in the early stages of Analysis for me -- things could change -- I need to study the pattern for a few weeks to further confirm what my position is or to alter/reverse it!

[Harmonica]

Harmonica, do please calm down a bit old chap, you're writing like Phineas T Barnum on acid and its not even lunchtime !

I took a look at the 'they' website. 'Investment and Business news' . I don't like the absence of byline (makes me think they nicked the stories), but they certainly present their facts quite well. I'd like to see their full newsletter.

Aren't you the fella who said he thought this was such a pratty thread and that people were just showing off and gassing around and that it is such a waste of time?

Why are you back? Perhaps to use some more British terms that I don't understand?

OK Moog, come on back now -- I've had lunch and switched to Bombay Black instead of acid! Good advice.

Kindly post a "usage" dictionary so I can follow and understand your posts. For starters it would help a great deal if I could at least understand the subject you are referring to -- we can then get to the content later. One step at a time.

[LivinLOS]

In all fairness Harmonica did not come with the original claim about the triple currency correlation. It does seem like you defend it, Harmonica?

Anyway; the main message (if I got that right) was that the Sterling should weaken towards the Euro. Sure; that could happen. There is a 50% change for it to happen! But if we are talking 40%(!) slide then the chance is much less...

Bottom line; I find currency speculation facinating but impossible (I might not be smart en'uff ) so I just ensure to be well diversified currency wise. Cheers!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The triple currency correlation I refer to is "If x and y then z" - this does not say anything about the true value of x or y, only about the relationship between them.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

OK G -- I'll be ecstatic to be proved wrong and will accept my medicine like a man! But how we are going to duplicate the exact conditions of the TEST?

OK let's say that Pound drops 40% w.r.t. Euro

but there is almost no chance that Pound/Dollar will stay flat.

What then?

At some point down the line I will show you how and why it is erroneous to state that Dollar will lose 40% versus euro based on our discussion parameters.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Then you are stating you dont agree with the 2 comments (in total) that were initially laid out.. I also think it highly unusual to consider a flat trading range for a period of what would be large change..

Its also very odd to say the Pound will fall against the Euro (and the dollar with it) as really that means that the Euro would rise against the pound and dollar.. Surely a much less confusing way to say it..

Edited July 19, 2005 by LivinLOS

[~G~]

Ok, Harmonica, some numbers:

Starting with 1 pound.

Exchage it to US Dollar (GBP/USD = 1.748), we've got 1.748 US Dollars.

Exchange it to Euro (USD/EUR = 1.206), we've got 1.449 Euro.

Exchange it to Pound (EUR/GBP = 0.689), we are back to 1 pound. Ignoring comissions for now.

Now, he11 breaks loose for Blithy (is this how they spell it?) and Pound drops against the Euro by 40%. This means, EUR/GBP = 1.667

And GBP/USD doesn't change (somehow).

And US Dollar only drops by 20% (or anything but 40%) against Euro, which means EUR/USD = 1.5

Again starting with 1 pound:

Exchage it to US Dollar (GBP/USD = 1.748), we've got 1.748 US Dollars.

Exchange it to Euro (USD/EUR = 1.5), we've got 1.163 Euro.

Exchange it to Pound (EUR/GBP = 1.667)…. And what happens? We get 1.94 pounds! Almost 2 pounds instead of 1!

Edited July 19, 2005 by ~G~

[~G~]

OK G -- I'll be ecstatic to be proved wrong and will accept my medicine like a man!      But how we are going to duplicate the exact conditions of the TEST? 

Easy - just give me any other rate other then 40% or very close to it, and I can easily show, as in my previous post, that one can make money simply by circulating round and round through the trio! This will be a very lucrative money machine! Unless you claim such machine can exist - you will agree with me perfect correlation between any three currencies must be kept.

Violation of such correlation can only be temporary - it will be immidiately taken advantage of by forex traders so that any tiny disparity will be closed in matter of seconds.

[Harmonica]

In all fairness Harmonica did not come with the original claim about the triple currency correlation. It does seem like you defend it, Harmonica?

Anyway; the main message (if I got that right) was that the Sterling should weaken towards the Euro. Sure; that could happen. There is a 50% change for it to happen! But if we are talking 40%(!) slide then the chance is much less...

Bottom line; I find currency speculation facinating but impossible (I might not be smart en'uff ) so I just ensure to be well diversified currency wise. Cheers!

The triple currency correlation I refer to is "If x and y then z" - this does not say anything about the true value of x or y, only about the relationship between them.

OK G -- I'll be ecstatic to be proved wrong and will accept my medicine like a man! But how we are going to duplicate the exact conditions of the TEST?

OK let's say that Pound drops 40% w.r.t. Euro

but there is almost no chance that Pound/Dollar will stay flat.

What then?

At some point down the line I will show you how and why it is erroneous to state that Dollar will lose 40% versus euro based on our discussion parameters.

Then you are stating you dont agree with the 2 comments (in total) that were initially laid out .. I also think it highly unusual to consider a flat trading range for a period of what would be large change..

Its also very odd to say the Pound will fall against the Euro (and the dollar with it) as really that means that the Euro would rise against the pound and dollar.. Surely a much less confusing way to say it..

That is exactly what I am saying, LivinLOS.

Actually I think it is brash to even make a statement such as Pound will drop 40% against Euro.

Where I completely disagree with the 2 comments (in total) that were initially laid out, is their statement that they expect no change between Pound and Dollar!

But hey, experts have been confusing us for decades. We've got to sort this stuff out ourselves because if we don't, yet decide to play by following them, they will be long gone when we complain about our losses.

When I left farangland, I just simply said "I'm going to find my own way and it will be just mine and I will perfect it over the years" -- this is not even my profession, guys. Can you imagine the outcome if these experts were doctors or surgeons?

If such were the case I'd ask my mother to reboot the computer the moment I poked my head out!

[Harmonica]

OK G -- I'll be ecstatic to be proved wrong and will accept my medicine like a man!       But how we are going to duplicate the exact conditions of the TEST?  

Easy - just give me any other rate other then 40% or very close to it, and I can easily show, as in my previous post, that one can make money simply by circulating round and round through the trio! This will be a very lucrative money machine! Unless you claim such machine can exist - you will agree with me perfect correlation between any three currencies must be kept.

Violation of such correlation can only be temporary - it will be immidiately taken advantage of by forex traders so that any tiny disparity will be closed in matter of seconds.

Good stuff, G -- let me review it later tonight or tomorrow morning and respond.

[Harmonica]

Been reading though this thread with much interest as a currency investor myself.  The only thing I know for sure is that USD is in a temporary upswing and will continue to trend downward.  After all this malarcky is done about interest rate differentials and such, it always comes back to fundementals and the core fundemental problem in the US is that the twin dificits are hugh, continue to grow, and the US will have to keep attractiong foreign investment by creating incentives for the foreigners such as letting the USD falter some more.

After declining Friday, the Euro moved back up on speculation on a cut by the ECB has disappeared after inflation accelerated.  The Euro is also getting support from expectations that the confidence reports due out tomorrow in Germany will show a nice gain.  Government reports this month showed German factory orders gained and French industrial production increased in May from the previous month.  The worst of the European data has been priced into the market, and the data should continue to improve helping to increase the upward pressure on the Euro. 

About 60 percent of the 60 state economists in China believe their government should revalue its currency in the second half of this year.  Most are advising their government to simply widen the trading band of the Renminbi whose value is currently held within .3% of the pegged rate of 8.265 Renminbi/US$.  This meshes with last weeks reports in the Financial Times that China will revalue in August.  It looks like the pressure to revalue is growing from within China as well as from their trading partners.

Wake up call for you! The Dollar is well into its 7th month of mountain climbing -- and what are you doing? Still badmouthing it and minimizing its advance -- at every opportunity, I might add. It is clear that you are just dying for it to reverse course and console you.

Smell the coffee amigo and reverse course, if not now, then at least after the next correction.

Then you won't find the need to attack me, subtly or otherwise.

As an alternative, ask Warren to cover your losses -- see if he gives a flying &lt;deleted&gt;.

Peace, bro

[TRIPxCORE]

fellas like you who have no mind of their own, but rather just vomit what the powers-that-be pound them with.

Dig? 

Why the need to be so vile? Just because someone has an opinion different than your own? Can't we have a debate and keep it civilized?

Then you won't find the need to attack me, subtly or otherwise.

As an alternative, ask Warren to cover your losses -- see if he gives a flying &lt;deleted&gt;.

  Peace, bro 

Attack you? I stand by what I said sir but it was meant as a joke (the BusinessWeek part)so take it easy. Get ahold of your emotions man, people are allowed to disagree.

Take care and for your financial sake, I hope you're right.

Edited July 19, 2005 by TRIPxCORE

[Harmonica]

Attack you? I stand by what I said sir but it was meant as a joke (the BusinessWeek part)so take it easy. Get ahold of your emotions man, people are allowed to disagree.

Take care and for your financial sake, I hope you're right.

>>>>>>>>>>>> I am not sure I am reading this right. Are you claiming to know more than these legends of the investment world? By all means, tell us your name and which company you work for so I can look for stories about you in BusinessWeek. I will look forward to them with much anticipation. <<<<<<<<<<<

That don't look like no joke to me, chief! I only put up with this kind of abuse and/or insinuation from farang women, not men!

Lighten up amigo -- I'll do likewise, OK?

[Harmonica]

Euro has registered a whopper of a breakout against the British Pound on Wednesday, July 20th. That, amigos, was yesterday!

Still need a few more days to 2 weeks to put the trend in perspective.