Thailand Issue, Then Cancel, Tsunami Warning

[george]

Thais issue, then cancel, tsunami warning after big Nicobar quake

BANGKOK: -- The Thai authorities issued a tsunami warning late yesterday — and then cancelled it over an hour later — for the south-west coast after a major earthquake in India's Nicobar Islands.

The warning was issued for the south-western coastal region, including Phuket, Phang Nga, Krabi, Ranong, Satun and Trang provinces.

There were reports that many people in the areas mentioned heeded the warning and headed for higher ground.

Earlier, the US Geological Survey said in a bulletin that an earthquake measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale had struck the Nicobar Islands about 135km west of Misha in the Nicobar Islands or about 440km northwest of Banda Aceh in Sumatra, Indonesia.

Thai emergency broadcasts had cited seismologists as saying that the quake measured 7.3 and occurred about 660km west of Phuket, Thailand's main beach tourist destination which was hit by last year's tsunami disaster that was caused by an earthquake off Sumatra.

The Dec 26 waves killed about 5,400 people in Thailand, almost half of them foreign holidaymakers, and caused massive damage. More than 2,800 others are still listed as missing.

India and Sri Lanka, too, were alerted about the latest earthquake but both countries decided later that there was no threat of a tsunami.

The latest information it had from the naval authorities in Port Blair, which is the capital of the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago, was that there was no untoward activity in the sea, said Indian Science and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal. He said there was no need to worry and no need to panic.

In Colombo, Sri Lanka said it faced no threat of a tsunami after the powerful earthquake in neighbouring India's remote Nicobar Islands.

However mild tremors were felt in several parts of the country.

Sri Lanka was one of the worst hit countries in last December's tsunami disaster.

-- AFP 2005-07-25

[george]

The tsunami warning from last night was cancelled.

Follow the Tsunami warning and developments minute by minute here:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=40365

[george]

Thailand averts second tsunami

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's six southern Andaman provinces have fortunately averted from the second tsunami disaster early Monday morning.

People in the six tsunami-prone provinces, including Phuket, Phang-nga, Krabi, Trang, Ranong and Satun, were warned by the National Disaster Warning Centre late last night to evacuate to high places due to a possible small to medium-scaled tsunami after a strong earthquake, measured 7.3 on the richter scale, took place in the Andaman Sea near the Indonesian Nicobar Island at 10:42 p.m., with its epicentre located about 664 southwest from Phuket.

The centre warned in an urgent statement broadcast live on TV pool that the new tsunami, if took place, was forecast to hit Phuket's Kalon Beach at around 0:12 a.m. and other areas in the tsunami-prone provinces from around 0:13-1.30 a.m.on Monday.

Fortunely, the feared second tsunami did not take place, and people later moved back to their residences safely.

The country's six provinces were hit by the first-ever tsunami, caused by a strongest earthquake in Indonesia, on 26 December last year, leaving more than 8,000 people dead and thousands more injured and missing.

--TNA 2005-07-25

[kidtongue]

Better safe than sorry and surprise the tourists aren't whning about being kept safe either...wonder if *that* message is getting across

[manjara]

Better safe than sorry and surprise the tourists aren't whning about being kept safe either...wonder if *that* message is getting across

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But what was all that last time about 'once in a lifetime quake'.

Seems like they are becoming quite common, or can this too be attributed to an aftershock?

[patsfangr]

Better safe than sorry and surprise the tourists aren't whning about being kept safe either...wonder if *that* message is getting across

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But what was all that last time about 'once in a lifetime quake'.

Seems like they are becoming quite common, or can this too be attributed to an aftershock?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Having lived in California for most of the last 35 years, I accept the fact that natural disasters, particularly earthquakes, are always a possibility.

I believe in making preparations for survival, in the event that such a disaster strikes in my living area.

However, I also believe that, given those preparations, my day-to-day life will NOT be changed by the possibility of such an event.

Life is short, with or without natural disasters, my friends. Enjoy every day of it, without dedicating more than is necessary of each day thinking about the potential for disaster. Or, to put it another way ... mai pen rai!

GR

[VanZam]

Good on Thailand for actually doing something this time!!!

Although there was no tsunami, much better to be safe than sorry, even if that means handling thousands on the streets of phuket etc.

At last..somethings been done right.

[Zoltan]

Good stuff .... I feel safer already... keep it up..

[Foggy Bottom]

I am worried that a case of "crying wolf" may develop. This is at least the second general alert issued since Songkran.

Perhaps now is the time for the authorities to consider 2-stage warnings - the first issued immediately of a potential tsunami-causing earthquake, the second shortly after stating the likelihood of a tsunami.

In that way, people can prepare to leave for high ground, but the actual movement of people and vehicles can be avoided when not needed.

Of course, that relies on having a suitable ocean monitoring system for immediate analysis. However distant quakes, or those in locations unlikely to affect Thailand (such as half way down Java's southwest coast - where java would block any wave from hitting Thailand) should also have their distance and location taken into account - which strengthens the case for a 2-stage warning.

Better safe than sorry is a truism, but as I say, too many warnings and evacuation orders will eventually cause people to ignore them.

[Chua]

Why don't the scientists & officials, who are supposedly in the know, warn people based on real changes in water density and actual wave height at islands along the way, instead of everytime there is an earthquake nearby? NOT ALL UNDERWATER EARTHQUAKES CAUSE TSUNAMIS, indeed there are underwater quakes all the time, but the last tsunami anywhere near the size that hit Sri Lanka & Thailand hadn't been seen anywhere on Earth for 40 years before. Warning people everytime there is an underwater Earthquake is like warning pedestrians everytime a car passes by that an accident is imminent. Only underwater Earthquakes with a particular type of plate motion (up & down, as opposed to side to side) create Tsunamis. Also, the intensity has quite a bit to do with it, as the destructive tsunami was caused by an approx 9.0 quake, which is 100 times stronger than a 7.0 quake.

Giving people warnings that turn out to be false is as bad as giving no warnings at all, because people will come to believe the warnings are never right, and eventually will not heed them, like the Aesop fable of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf!"

[hotshot]

I was at Patong last night when the warning came through the speakers. Many people got scared....and headed for the highlands.....I am running a business in Phuket and I am quite sure that if these warnings continue then Phuket will loose most of their tourists. But OK once a month is okay, but if it continues every week....then the tourists will find another destination!

As for me.....I relocate as soon as possible....I don't feel good about Phuket anymore!

[george]

Update:

Thailand satisfied with its tsunami warning system

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's tsunami early warning system and evacuation plan last night are 80 percent successful, said Plodprasop Suraswadi, Director of the National Disaster Warning Center.

Thailand issued a tsunami warning for the Andaman coastal provinces, inlcuding Phuket, Phang-nga, Krabi, Ranong, Trang and Satun, after an earthquake measured 7.3 on the Richter scale occurred in the sea near the Indonesian Nicobar Islands, about 664 kilometers southwest of Phuket.

The tsunami warning was lifted early Monday morning.

The center has evaluated the operations of its officials and the tsunami early warning system after the earthquake jolted the area, the director said.

However, provincial evacuation plans must be improved so that people would not be left stranded on congested roads, he suggested.

Safe places on higher ground should also be clearly designated and publicized, he said.

"Thailand needs to speed up its installation of tsunami-detection buoys in the Andaman Sea in order to increase the efficiency of the warning system," he added.

The earthquake caused five small tsunami waves, followed by three aftershocks measured five on the Richter scale, he disclosed.

The center works around the clock, he said.

Since the tsunami hit Thailand on 26 December last year, there have been about 2,000 earthquakes in the kingdom, but the warning will be issued for those measured over 7 on the Richter scale, according to Mr. Prodprasop.

--TNA 2005-07-25

[Patong Bob]

Panic in the streets of Patong last night. I don't know if anyone was injured by a traffic collision, but I would be amazed if they weren't. At least this was an earthquake, unlike the time they sounded the alarm to impress the Miss World entrants, which also caused a panic.......TIT.

[NBT TV Phuket]

1. to download/see mini-video on following report, click on red arrow at http://www.thaisnews.com/news_detail.php?newsid=137062

from Andaman News TV11 & FM90.5 Phuket 8.30am Monday 25 July 2005

A major earthquake near the Nicobar Islands in Indian waters occurred at 22.42 last night Thai time, at a magnitude of 7.3. It was located about 664 kilometres due west from Phuket. There were no early reports of damage or casualties, but the National Warning Centre in Bangkok issued a tsunami alert, read on national TV, including Channel 11, about one hour after the quake. They said there was a possibility of a tsunami happening and if it happened it would have affected Phuket, Phang Nga, Krabi, Ranong, Satun and Trang provinces, with Karon’ district hit first. The centre’s Director Plodprasop Surasawadi said in the emergency broadcasts they asked the 6 coastal provinces’ authorities to issue warnings to people to prepare for evacuation and preparation to follow the evacuation plan they have put in place. In Patong, the warning alarm went out as planned as well. Meanwhile tourist boat operators like Phi Phi cruise owners had their ships get away from shore, as well as other fishing boats.

At 1.25am the National Warning Centre announced the withdrawal of the alert as there was no danger of a tsunami.

Phuket Governor Udomsak Uswarangkura said procedures went as planned while Phang Nga Governor Anuwat Metheewiboonwut said they used any communication tools they had to alert people and called for early warning systems to be put in place as soon as possible.

2. ALSO NOTE THIS PROVISIONAL NEWS FOR TOMORROW:

Krabi will conduct warning tower tests on TUESDAY at 3 pm in 35 locations.

<p> Emphasizing Krabi’s readiness in coping with tsunami evacuations, Krabi Governor Arnond Phromnart said that after the Sunday night Tsunami warning, he had all officials of prone locations report on their difficulties in handling the evacuation work, if any, in order to improve and prepare better in the future. Mr. Arnond also told reporters that Krabi will conduct tests on warning systems with announcement and sirens around 5 minutes each time starting at 3 pm ON TUESDAY. The receivers will be on 35 locations in Muang Krabi district including Phi Phi islands, Klong Thom, Ao Luek, Koh Lanta and Nueklong districts. The Krabi authority therefore wishes to notify residents and tourists that they are tests only.

[RailaeBeach_Bum]

Good on Thailand for actually doing something this time!!!

Although there was no tsunami, much better to be safe than sorry, even if that means handling thousands on the streets of phuket etc.

At last..somethings been done right.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I cant agree with you there, Its all fair and good treating this as a "trial run" however if Thailand are going to send panic to the Southern beaches every time we so much as a "Quiver" then Thailand tourism is Doomed for sure,

9 on the richta scale is hundreds of times stronger than a mere 7, The Thai goverment needs to get this exactly right.!!!

[Greer]

I can see what some posters are worried about, with the "cry wolf" point above, and although being safe rather than sorry is certainly OK in the short term, I agree that we cannot continue to jump at every quake - BUT - until the system "has the bugs worked out" - in other words, perhaps developing a two stage warning system (an Alert, followed by a Warning perhaps), then we must at least be reassured that our government has moved very fast to set up the early warning system as it is.

I certainly support their efforts - don't forget that earlier the complaints were that there was NO warning system at all - now we are getting "picky", when we should give it a little time.

Sadly, the tourism industry is going to be affected no matter what; there are lots of people who are scared of the south of Thailand for other reasons as well - and overseas, there is little distinction made between the South of Thailand, and Phuket, an island in southern Thai waters.

[astral]

9 on the richta scale is hundreds of times stronger than a mere 7, The Thai goverment needs to get this exactly right.!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, but how many Thai understand the logarithmic nature of the Richter scale???????????????????

[george]

Tsunami alarm ‘a success’

PHUKET: -- A tsunami warning has been declared a “90% success” after the alert went out late last night from the National Disaster Warning Center (NDWC).

The alert, urging evacuation of the Andaman coast, came after an earthquake measuring 7.3 on the Richter scale struck the Nicobar Islands, only 664 kilometers from Phuket.

At 11 pm, Plodprasop Suraswadi, Director of the NDWC in Nonthaburi, near Bangkok, advised that people living in coastal areas should move to higher ground. The earthquake, with its epicenter located about 10 kilometers below the seabed, occurred at 10:42 pm.

K. Plodprasop announced that giant waves were predicted to hit Karon Beach at 12:12 am and Patong Beach a minute later, followed by Bang Tao Beach, Tah Chat Chai, Thai Muang, Khao Lak, and Koh Lanta.

Boonchai Somchai, Chief of Phuket Provincial Disaster Preventio n and Mitigation Office (ODPM) said that Phuket Governor Udomsak Uswarangkura ordered local authorities to warn the public of the predicted tsunamis.

“Karon and Patong authorities received orders from the Governor to announce an evacuation of residents at 11 pm, via loudspeaker announcements and by setting off the NDWC sirens in Patong at midnight.”

He said that residents of coastal areas moved to safety of their own accord, with some assistance from police.

“The evacuation went according to plan and was about 90% successful. The only problem we encountered was in sending mobile phone alerts upon the first warning. However, the Radio Communication Association was on standby and was able to provide radio and telephone links,” K. Boonchai said.

“Nobody was hurt during the evacuation, nor when the tsunami warning was canceled at 1:30 am and residents returned to their homes. ”

At 2:12 am, K. Plodprasop announced once again that the warning had been rescinded, after steps had been taken to ensure that there was no further risk. The public was later informed that although there had been potential for a tsunami, only five small waves were generated.

American David Beaty, on vacation in Phuket, said, “Everywhere was crazy with everyone running at about midnight. Then, around 1 am, people started going back to the shops.

“Staff at the hotel where I am staying in Patong did not inform me about what was going on. I was asleep until some friends came and told me about the warning.”

He explained that he moved from the third to the fifth floor. “I went to a higher floor; I didn’t want to leave [the hotel] because traffic was bad. I was not too worried and didn’t get hurt. Thailand is a beautiful country and I will come back here again.” he added.

Pamuke Archariyachai, Managing Director of three Kata Group hotels in Phuket, told the Gazette that the NDWC had done a good job of warning the public and that his hotel staff were trained not to frighten guests, but to ensure their safety in such a situation.

“Our hotel staff are trained not to panic on hearing news of an impending disaster, so they simply called guests to wake them and move them to the upper floors. None of our guests needed to head for the hills because our buildings have floors well above sea level.

“Our staff tried to inform and protect every guest, but some of them ignored our warnings and declined to move to the higher floors,” he added.

--Phuket Gazette 2005-07-25

[ausiekid]

I can see what some posters are worried about, with the "cry wolf" point above, and although being safe rather than sorry is certainly OK in the short term, I agree that we cannot continue to jump at every quake - BUT - until the system "has the bugs worked out" - in other words, perhaps developing a two stage warning system (an Alert, followed by a Warning perhaps), then we must at least be reassured that our government has moved very fast to set up the early warning system as it is.

I certainly support their efforts - don't forget that earlier the complaints were that there was NO warning system at all - now we are getting "picky", when we should give it a little time.

Sadly, the tourism industry is going to be affected no matter what; there are lots of people who are scared of the south of Thailand for other reasons as well - and overseas, there is little distinction made between the South of Thailand, and Phuket, an island in southern Thai waters.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[ausiekid]

9 on the richta scale is hundreds of times stronger than a mere 7, The Thai goverment needs to get this exactly right.!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, but how many Thai understand the logarithmic nature of the Richter scale???????????????????

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think you understand the whole thing. All you do is put Thai people down.

[RailaeBeach_Bum]

9 on the richta scale is hundreds of times stronger than a mere 7, The Thai goverment needs to get this exactly right.!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, but how many Thai understand the logarithmic nature of the Richter scale???????????????????

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think you understand the whole thing. All you do is put Thai people down.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Its not the Thais Job to understand the logarithmic scale, however it is the Job of Thai Goverment Officials to employ people who do understand it, and to issue the appropriate warnings, Surely..?

[astral]

9 on the richta scale is hundreds of times stronger than a mere 7, The Thai goverment needs to get this exactly right.!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, but how many Thai understand the logarithmic nature of the Richter scale???????????????????

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think you understand the whole thing. All you do is put Thai people down.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Its not the Thais Job to understand the logarithmic scale, however it is the Job of Thai Goverment Officials to employ people who do understand it, and to issue the appropriate warnings, Surely..?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Note that the Indians and Sri Lankans decided that it was not a moment to panic!!

Only the Thais cried Wolf!!

TIT

Edited July 25, 2005 by astral

[george]

Update:

Thailand defends tsunami warning after false alarm

BANKGOK: -- Authorities in Thailand said they did not overreact by sounding a tsunami warning overnight when a major earthquake struck the Indian Ocean's Nicobar islands.

The warning was issued shortly before midnight, prompting police to help evacuate thousands of people in six provinces that were pounded by the December 26 tsunami, when Thailand did not issue an alert.

The false alarm, lifted about 90 miniutes later, was the second in Thailand since the December waves killed some 5,400 people in the kingdom, about half of them foreign tourists.

"We don't think it was an overreaction," Major General Jaruek Sriwarit, a member of the National Disaster Warning Center, told AFP.

"We were happy that we issued the warning to people because if there was a tsunami, it would take less time (to reach the Thai coast) than the December 26 tsunami."

The warning center triggered the alert shortly after the US Geological Survey said a major 7.0-magnitude quake hit the remote Indian island chain.

Thai authorities cut into local television programming to issue emergency broadcasts that said the earthquake was about 660 kilometres (410 miles) west of the resort island of Phuket, whose west coast was hard hit in December.

Some residents along Phuket's Patong beach said they heard loud sirens, part of the newly developed warning system, for about 30 seconds before deciding to flee, along with thousands of other residents and Western tourists.

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said the warning system remained a work in progress but defended the decision to announce an alert, even though India and Sri Lanka declined to issue warnings.

"A tsunami does not automatically happen but if the earthquake is strong enough there is a possibility," Thaksin told reporters.

But he acknowledged that too many false alarms may cause people to ignore the real thing.

"We are concerned that (too many) will make people not believe the next warning when it happens," he said.

Thailand, Southeast Asia's top tourist destination with more than 10 million visitors last year but slumping figures for 2005, has been under pressure to ensure a warning system was in place to alert tourists of potential disasters.

In January, Swedish Prime Minister Goeran Persson laid into Thai officials for failing to issue a tsunami warning on December 26 and said better disaster prevention and security was paramount.

Around 450 Swedish tourists died in the catastrophe.

After the disaster, Thaksin transferred the Meteorology Department head and launched an inquiry into why there was no advance tsunami warning despite the department recording the huge earthquake which triggered it.

Thailand will "speed up" installation of tsunami-detection buoys in the Indian Ocean, a key link in the warning system, in order to better predict the giant waves, Thaksin said.

The first false alarm on March 29 sent thousands scrambling to higher ground after a massive undersea quake off the Indonesian coast.

Jaruek said the overnight warning this time was a vital dress rehearsal.

"We can count this as a big trial because the first time we issued the warning, people panicked," he said. "This time, they were in control of themselves and knew what they should do."

In April, Thailand held the Indian Ocean's first tsunami warning drill at a ceremony in Phuket to test its loudspeakers and sirens.

--AFP 2005-07-25

[Scott]

As I understand it, tsunami's are hard to predict. There is a certain point on the richter scale that is highly likely to cause a tsunami and that is when a warning is issued. Whether or not a wave actually develops can't be predicted. That is what the sensors in the ocean are for and they give a better indication of a wave. The direction and speed are also difficult to predict.

Obviously the system needs some fine tuning and more sophisticated equipment, but people have to learn to live with false alarms. With time they will be able to give people an approximation of when a tsunami will arrive (if one develops), which gives people lead time to leave without panicing. A lot of times there are many hours notice of a tsunami.

[ChrisP]

What was the Richter level of the Dec quake that created the tsunami..? I seem to remember it was less than a 7.0, which is the one this time.

If I'm right, then I feel they are right to issue a warning. Tsunami prediction after a big earthquake isn't an exact science, especially using a new warning system that's still in its infancy.

ChrisP

[jjandfah]

Better safe than sorry and surprise the tourists aren't whning about being kept safe either...wonder if *that* message is getting across

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But what was all that last time about 'once in a lifetime quake'.

Seems like they are becoming quite common, or can this too be attributed to an aftershock?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The Nicobar Islands has always been an active quake area. It sits very close to the Asian and African continental faults that shift quite regularly. The only difference now is that there is much more attention on this due to the tsunami that a significant shift caused. Shifts will continue as long after we are gone but the circumstances involved in the quake that caused the tsunami probably won't be seen again in our lifetime. This is the natural evolution of the Earth and the constant movement of the Earth's crust but don't count on ever seeing this again.

[patsfangr]

As I understand it, tsunami's are hard to predict.  There is a certain point on the richter scale that is highly likely to cause a tsunami and that is when a warning is issued.  Whether or not a wave actually develops can't be predicted.  That is what the sensors in the ocean are for and they give a better indication of a wave.  The direction and speed are also difficult to predict. 

Obviously the system needs some fine tuning and more sophisticated equipment, but people have to learn to live with false alarms.  With time they will be able to give people an approximation of when a tsunami will arrive (if one develops), which gives people lead time to leave without panicing.  A lot of times there are many hours notice of a tsunami.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think that the Thai government would be well advised to publish "Earthquake and Tsunami Survival" instructions. Here in California, everyone has been given information suggesting the assembly of an "Earthquake Survival Kit", containing food, water, basic first aid kit, flashlight, battery operated radio, thermal blanket, etc.. Such a kit can fit in a backpack, and be kept ready to go. Properly set up, it can support a family of 4 for up to a week. It eliminates the need for panicked gathering of such items, and provides a measure of assurance for the family.

GR

[jrincon17]

Better safe than sorry and surprise the tourists aren't whning about being kept safe either...wonder if *that* message is getting across

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But what was all that last time about 'once in a lifetime quake'.

Seems like they are becoming quite common, or can this too be attributed to an aftershock?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You just didnt hear about them , now its world news every time a quake happens in that area. Tsunami's will happen about every 40 yrs or so of that magnitude

[toni157]

OH, ho ho, so sad these fools are complaining about the warnings- what would they say if here was another wave that killed more people. Nobody can predict an earthquake, ok all you can do is warn the people that a tsunami is on the way, (by the way, the Thai's were warned about the possibillity of a tsunami on the 26th but they chose to ignore it) and as fot ouryankee friend who suggests issuing Thais with earthquake kits, sure why not give everyone a mercedes E class also and a pot of gold they can use when they run out of bahts - I thought I was the dumbest farang in Thailand!

[patsfangr]

OH, ho ho, so sad these fools are complaining about the warnings- what would they say if here was another wave that killed more people. Nobody can predict an earthquake, ok all you can do is warn the people that a tsunami is on the way, (by the way, the Thai's were warned about the possibillity of a tsunami on the 26th but they chose to ignore it) and as fot ouryankee friend who suggests issuing Thais with earthquake kits, sure why not give everyone a mercedes E class also and a pot of gold they can use when they run out of bahts - I thought I was the dumbest farang in Thailand!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

PAY ATTENTION! What I suggested was that the Thai government "publish "Earthquake and Tsunami Survival" instructions". I did NOT suggest that the government issue earthquake kits! I realize that most Thais could not afford kits as sophisticated as those used here in the U.S. But the CONCEPT, and application at some level, is still valid.

Next time you want to jump all over somebody with a constructive idea, I suggest that you read and comprehend what they say prior to doing so!!

GR