Down under or Thai? Aussie mum trades Oz for Land of Smiles

[corkman]

Hi All,

I've got a lump of money I need to send back to Europe, but following the recent slide of the baht against the euro I was wondering is that likely to be a long term thing or is there rapid recovery (likely) on the horizon?

I could hold out a few weeks if so, but I don't wanna risk a further slide.

Thoughts, comments, suggestions?

THanks

CM

[Soutpeel]

If somebody really knew with certainty what currencies were going to do in few weeks they would not tell you, they vwould be out making lots of cash

[EvilDrSomkid]

Yo Mr. "top of the morning to ya", have you been following the exchange rates lately?

Not sure how large your lump is, but it seems like the Euro is making a rally.

Against the THB and the USD.

I asked a similar question last week. The rate worked in my favor, but us rising.

How long will it last? <deleted> knows ?

Like SP implied, your guess is as good as mine.

[Khun Jean]

With Thailand trying to lower the Thai baht i would say now is a better time then within a few weeks.

But who knows what will happen, it is always a gamble. Can you split it in 2 or more batches. That way you can average the rate.

[corkman]

With Thailand trying to lower the Thai baht i would say now is a better time then within a few weeks.

But who knows what will happen, it is always a gamble. Can you split it in 2 or more batches. That way you can average the rate.

KISS - Keep It Simple, Stupid! LOL I think that's about the best thing to do. Transfer hald now, and wait..... in the greater scheme of things it all balances..... and we're only talking a couple hundred k THB, so if I loose 10k either way, it won't break me ...... but it's better in my pocket than theres

THanks to the other two respondants ..... yeah, I know what you mean - if there was some super-dooper way to predict etc....... I have generally been following the currency, but I am far from an expert. I try to send when I think things are at peaks (to my benefit) but generally in recent weeks the trned has been pretty steady, then a few days ago (just before I got my wedge of cash) it slid, suddenly..... which I didn't expect (professional speculators probably expected it, however).

Yes - I think with internal pressures for the THB to be reduced, and with US speculators seeing this dip, therem ight be a rush to withdraw now, while they can, post peak but before bottom sort of thing...... the Euro however is still on the decline, and nothing seems to be place to stop that, and no growth engine seems to be there to strat bringing it up (oil on the rise, exports on the decline, debts rising, etc.).

Cheers,

CM

[maxman71]

The US/West is living in the Land of Lollipops, Daffodils and the Easter Bunny thinking they can just print their way out of their self-imposed financial messes. What we are seeing in the recent “strength” of the USD/other currencies vs. the THB is a combination of a technical correction, profit taking of the SET, unrest in various parts of the world to cause people to dump some cash into western “safe havens”. Add to that gold needed to pullback as well. If the USD reaches about 32-33 to the USD, I will move over some more USD’s to Thailand. My credentials??? I moved over a good chunk of USD’s in late 2005 at about 41 THB to the USD, just before the USD really started to tank. Just previous to that, I sold my house in California earlier that same year, got completely out debt and moved over here. As a result, I not only preserved my cash and assets during the financial chaos over the last few years, I grew them quite nicely. I predicted in late 2004/2005 the mess we have been the last few years and put my money where my mouth was. I trade the markets actively and have no complaints on my results.

I personally believe the THB will revert back to it's pre-1998 Asian Financial Crisis (initially caused by a certain Thai financier) trading range of about 22-28 THB/1 USD. Thailand and most of Asia learned their lesson quite well from the 1998 fiasco and their banking/lending practices have become much more conservative as a result. To wit, Thai banks suffered minimally in the sub-prime mortgage/debt fiasco as they had very little exposure to these debt instruments and Thai banks have much higher reserve ratios than their Western counterparts. The Euro, however, may ultimately fare better than the USD, as EuroLand is at least attempting some form of budget austerity. I have serious misgivings the US will do the same voluntarily; Mr. Market may very well have to it for them and that will result in a mess that will make the sub-prime/debt implosion look like a Day at the Beach.

[Naam]

the Euro however is still on the decline, and nothing seems to be place to stop that, and no growth engine seems to be there to strat bringing it up...

please enlighten us financial laymen vs. which currencies the EUR "is still on the decline" :jap:

[Naam]

I personally believe the THB will revert back to it's pre-1998 Asian Financial Crisis (initially caused by a certain Thai financier) trading range of about 22-28 THB/1 USD

before the financial crisis (1997) a "trading range" for THB did not exist. till 1985 THB was firmly pegged against USD at 20 and from 1985 till the "asian flu" the peg was 25.

[jombom]

Well, there is an election due later this year, with a lot of unfinished business waiting in the wings. Markets generally do not like uncertainty.

The implications are therefore that the baht will continue to weaken in the short to medium term.

[Naam]

Well, there is an election due later this year, with a lot of unfinished business waiting in the wings. Markets generally do not like uncertainty.

The implications are therefore that the baht will continue to weaken in the short to medium term.

we had elections. we had a military coup. we had changes of government. we had the airport blocked for days. we had riots and people were killed. it did not affect the general tendency of the Baht appreciating which was caused partly by BoT intervention. look at Thailand's reserves three years ago and look at them now. the numbers are not only self explanatory but speak volumes.

[nong38]

Well the Germans have now come out and said they will do whatever is neccessary to defend the Euro so I would take that as it staring rise again,but as far as predictions are concerned well that just what they are, another name for a guess, tried your latest fortune teller lately? Whenever I go down the temple and shake the sticks, open the draw the translation is the same.........."money come" well its a bit late on the repayments.

I think most of us are glad to see the rates against the bt rising as we all have a bit more comfort, 50 to the pound coming to a bank near you soon. I hope.

Edited January 29, 2011 by nong38

[jombom]

Well, there is an election due later this year, with a lot of unfinished business waiting in the wings. Markets generally do not like uncertainty.

The implications are therefore that the baht will continue to weaken in the short to medium term.

we had elections. we had a military coup. we had changes of government. we had the airport blocked for days. we had riots and people were killed. it did not affect the general tendency of the Baht appreciating which was caused partly by BoT intervention. look at Thailand's reserves three years ago and look at them now. the numbers are not only self explanatory but speak volumes.

While your comment on the reserves is indeed correct, analyzing reserves alone, does not give a complete picture. Thailand needs to spend large amounts of money on infrastructure. The water supply and management of same are extremely poor. Foul water also needs huge investment, if tourism and general health is to be improved. These are 2 simple examples.

Comparing Euro and Baht, what do you think the reserves would be like if Thailand had a european style welfare and health system.

[corkman]

the Euro however is still on the decline, and nothing seems to be place to stop that, and no growth engine seems to be there to strat bringing it up...

please enlighten us financial laymen vs. which currencies the EUR "is still on the decline" :jap:

Should have said Euro-zone.

In the medium term, the lower-cost based countries in the region will probably be the engine for growth, but in the interim there's gonna be several more cycles of correction etc.

But as far as I can see, the cash-flow balance is still largely from Europe to Asia, and not the otherway around?

Edited January 31, 2011 by corkman

[EvilDrSomkid]

Well, there is an election due later this year, with a lot of unfinished business waiting in the wings. Markets generally do not like uncertainty.

The implications are therefore that the baht will continue to weaken in the short to medium term.

we had elections. we had a military coup. we had changes of government. we had the airport blocked for days. we had riots and people were killed. it did not affect the general tendency of the Baht appreciating which was caused partly by BoT intervention. look at Thailand's reserves three years ago and look at them now. the numbers are not only self explanatory but speak volumes.

While your comment on the reserves is indeed correct, analyzing reserves alone, does not give a complete picture. Thailand needs to spend large amounts of money on infrastructure. The water supply and management of same are extremely poor. Foul water also needs huge investment, if tourism and general health is to be improved. These are 2 simple examples.

Comparing Euro and Baht, what do you think the reserves would be like if Thailand had a european style welfare and health system.

What, if any, effect would a large expenditure on infrastructure have on the EUR:THB rate? You make a valid point that investment is required, but what does it have to do with the exchange rates?

Regarding your second paragraph: This is not the right thread for it. Let's try to stay on topic here.

FWIW: The taxation would go through the roof. Luckily, its a non-issue.

[Naam]

Comparing Euro and Baht, what do you think the reserves would be like if Thailand had a european style welfare and health system.

foreign currency reserves have nothing whatsoever to do with welfare or health systems. :jap:

economics cannot be explained by (i admit) logical assumptions like yours.

Edited January 31, 2011 by Naam

[Naam]

What, if any, effect would a large expenditure on infrastructure have on the EUR:THB rate? You make a valid point that investment is required, but what does it have to do with the exchange rates?

none.

[Jezz]

Well the Germans have now come out and said they will do whatever is neccessary to defend the Euro so I would take that as it staring rise again,but as far as predictions are concerned well that just what they are, another name for a guess, tried your latest fortune teller lately? Whenever I go down the temple and shake the sticks, open the draw the translation is the same.........."money come" well its a bit late on the repayments.

I think most of us are glad to see the rates against the bt rising as we all have a bit more comfort, 50 to the pound coming to a bank near you soon. I hope.

I'm glad to see the 50 to a pound hit today. The difference between that and the recent lows of down to 45 baht means about 3000 baht per month extra on my monthly British state pension. When one considers this difference as being not far out of line with some Thai workers earning that in a month, it's kinda mindblowing. I'm afraid I'm sceptical, though, about the improvement lasting long.