Campaign Strategists In A See-Saw Battle: Thai Election

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

Campaign strategists in a see-saw battle

By Jeerapong Prasertpolkrang,

Olan Lertrattanadamrongkul,

Achara Pongvuttitham

The Nation

Democrats hope their 'door-to-door' approach will eventually yield fruit even though opinion polls show Pheu Thai forging ahead with big campaign events

Approximately one month to go and the mountain standing in the Democrats' way seems to be getting bigger. At least that is what the opinion polls are suggesting, which makes it understandable why the incumbents are choosing to virtually ignore them and the looming shadow of Yingluck Shinawatra.

There remain hopes among the Democrats that their door-to-door strategy and the much-taunted "For continuity, choose us" slogan will finally pay off, although their opponents have taken a runaway lead in opinion polls through big presentations and promotion of Yingluck.

The Democrats do have sound logic behind the decision to scale down their tradition of big rallies. In this campaign, they have been going straight to groups benefiting or standing to benefit from state policies. It has been a tiresome, whirlwind drive that targets smaller audiences with the hope that "real messages" could be spread mouth-to-mouth or through the unproven social media networks.

"We used to focus on big rallies but now that we are incumbents, the approach could give us a disadvantage because people, especially the media, may concentrate on what we say politically, not what we have done with tangible results," said one of the party's election strategists.

"This new direct-sale approach may bear fruit slowly, unlike big events showcasing big speeches, but we are confident that when real messages start to get across, it will eventually work in our favour."

In provinces like Nakhon Sawan, Phitsanulok, Ratchaburi, Kanchanaburi and Yasothon, the Democrats have been meeting beneficiaries or potential recipients of the farmers' income guarantee scheme. When the politicians visit Nakhon Pathom, they try to sell the 15 years of free education policy. In industrial areas, they limit talks to the relevant issues of costs of living and the minimum wage.

"Big rallies were our speciality, because we are always a party of good speakers," the source said. "But circumstances are requiring us to take a different approach. The Pheu Thai Party is also being dictated to by circumstances. They are the challengers and they want to promote Yingluck, so they need big events and a lot of media attention."

While the media and analysts are looking at the poll results and all but dismissing the ruling party's chances of a comeback, the Democrats insist that there are other figures that matter. For example, the source said, the income guarantee for farmers involved four million accounts of people applying for the scheme. "That's four million families," he said, adding that the free education policy benefited 12 million students, whose parents would more or less remember the Democrats when casting their votes on July 3.

Problem is, such policies would only work if Pheu Thai was campaigning on a platform of frugality, promoting self-help and budget cuts. In reality, it has been a bidding war, not to mention the fact that Pheu Thai did it first and has been a populism expert. The income guarantee has been countered by even a sexier offer of credit cards to farmers. The free education programme has met with the bold offer to distribute computer tablets to all poor students.

Yesterday, Yingluck pledged a high-speed train project that would make the Bangkok-Nakhon Ratchasima journey only 30 minutes long. That, Pheu Thai said, was just part of a high-speed train network shooting out of the capital in four directions, allowing new, affordable housing projects for the masses to spring up where the routes end. It's a bluffing war that favours the challenger and puts the incumbents under pressure.

"Thailand remains a poor country and our positioning as representative of the poor is clear," said a Pheu Thai campaign planner. But while the Democrats have been splitting up their big events, Pheu Thai has ensured Yingluck enjoyed a grand welcome on big stages. The opposition party has limited rallies to its comfort zones, where huge crowds turned up and provided good front-page photos.

Yingluck has done better than the party and her big brother Thaksin had hoped for, never straying off the non-provocative scripts and successfully deflecting controversial issues like the red shirts on the party-list and the amnesty plan to other Pheu Thai figures. Like Thaksin, she's been marketed as a successful businessperson who loves the family. The party has also done well in not making her great wealth an issue, so far at least.

Both the Democrats and Pheu Thai, however, realise that things can change very quickly in politics. Pheu Thai would be much happier if the election was to take place in a week's time. To the opposition camp, July 3 can't come soon enough. To the Democrats, time will fly.

-- The Nation 2011-05-31

[samurai]

The Democrats do have sound logic behind the decision to scale down their tradition of big rallies. ...

Let me guess ... only a few people came to see the Democrats.

[whybother]

The Democrats do have sound logic behind the decision to scale down their tradition of big rallies. ...

Let me guess ... only a few people came to see the Democrats.

That's because they are not "big rallies".

[samurai]

The Democrats do have sound logic behind the decision to scale down their tradition of big rallies. ...

Let me guess ... only a few people came to see the Democrats.

That's because they are not "big rallies".

many people come = big rally ("Big rallies were our speciality, because we are always a party of good speakers," the source said)

few people come = not so big rally ( because not many want listen to their speeches its our new direct-sale approach)

[rubl]

Well, all parties seem to have put up their affiches, those (election) standard size posters with distinguished looking ladies and gentlemen. In my neck of the woods (Khet Dusit, Bangkok) I've seen posters from party 1, 10, 12, 21 and 33. Today I noticed a new poster, very nice one. Next time if I have my mobile with me I'll take a picture:

A nicely dressed up, distinguished looking monkey holding a banana, yellow background, NO with an "x" in a small white square. Who said Thai don't have a sense of humour

Edited May 31, 2011 by rubl

[whybother]

many people come = big rally ("Big rallies were our speciality, because we are always a party of good speakers," the source said)

few people come = not so big rally ( because not many want listen to their speeches its our new direct-sale approach)

The Democrats do have sound logic behind the decision to scale down their tradition of big rallies. In this campaign, they have been going straight to groups benefiting or standing to benefit from state policies.

But circumstances are requiring us to take a different approach.

The various parties don't just turn up at a street corner and have 10,000 people turn up. If they organise a big rally, they make sure they have space, stages, audio gear etc and do a lot of advertising to make sure a large number of people turn up.

As indicated, the Democrats are taking a different approach and targeting smaller groups with a more specific message.

PTP are having big rallies because they only have one message.

[samurai]

The various parties don't just turn up at a street corner and have 10,000 people turn up. If they organise a big rally, they make sure they have space, stages, audio gear etc and do a lot of advertising to make sure a large number of people turn up.

As indicated, the Democrats are taking a different approach and targeting smaller groups with a more specific message.

PTP are having big rallies because they only have one message.

For sure.

[samurai]

Abhisit called murderer during campaign at Bang Kapi

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva was called 'murderer' when he led his part campaign in Bangkok's Bang Kapi district Monday morning.

Abhisit faced the verbal attack when he was campaigning at the Sriboonruang Pier at 7:30 am.

A male resident of a condominium across the canal shouted "murderer" when Abhisit reached the spot.

The man kept on staring at Abhisit's campaign group. No violent incident occurred.

The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Abhisit-called-murderer-during-campaign-at-Bang-Ka-30156544.html

[Siripon]

Abhisit called murderer during campaign at Bang Kapi

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva was called 'murderer' when he led his part campaign in Bangkok's Bang Kapi district Monday morning.

Abhisit faced the verbal attack when he was campaigning at the Sriboonruang Pier at 7:30 am.

A male resident of a condominium across the canal shouted "murderer" when Abhisit reached the spot.

The man kept on staring at Abhisit's campaign group. No violent incident occurred.

The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Abhisit-called-murderer-during-campaign-at-Bang-Ka-30156544.html

A red shirt woman confronted Apisit today on the hustings, she repeatedly said,' I only came here to buy lunch, I didn't know Apisit would be here', Apisit said,' So, why are you holding an anti- government sign?'!

No doubt Nattawut will say she was a fake red!

[maewrocks]

why bother arguing...AV couldn't draw a big crowd if his life depended on it. Never elected, never respected.

[whybother]

why bother arguing...AV couldn't draw a big crowd if his life depended on it. Never elected, never respected.

How did he become an MP?

[Siripon]

why bother arguing...AV couldn't draw a big crowd if his life depended on it. Never elected, never respected.

He's so unrespected, whenever Apisit tabled a question in Parliament, Thaksin would take leave and assign a minion to answer.

He refused to debate with Apisit on TV prior the last election.

And when Thaksin promised not to dissolve Parliament after selling out to Temasek, and he knew he would face Apisit in Parliament, he abruptly changed his mind and dissolved Parliament rather than face Apisit.

And now his sister is doing the same!

Afraid, the pair of them.

[maewrocks]

why bother arguing...AV couldn't draw a big crowd if his life depended on it. Never elected, never respected.

He's so unrespected, whenever Apisit tabled a question in Parliament, Thaksin would take leave and assign a minion to answer.

He refused to debate with Apisit on TV prior the last election.

And when Thaksin promised not to dissolve Parliament after selling out to Temasek, and he knew he would face Apisit in Parliament, he abruptly changed his mind and dissolved Parliament rather than face Apisit.

And now his sister is doing the same!

Afraid, the pair of them.

Shame then that AV is only good at speaking and totally incompetent at implementing effective policies and even more incompetent at getting more seats than Thaksin in an election. That's gotta hurt!

[samurai]

Abhisit met with protesting signs while rallying in Sai Mai

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva was welcomed with protesting signs when visited a fresh market in Bangkok's Sai Mai district Tuesday morning to help his party candidate campaign.

A man held a sign saying "Reya in Politics, Sharp Tongue but Can't Deliver" to greet him when the prime minister arrived at the Wongsakorn Market at 6:30 am.

Reya is the name of the main character in a recent TV soap opera. She used fast-track means to gain wealth by offering herself as a mistress of rich men.

The man left the scene after police talked to him.

Later, Abhisit met encountered a woman holding sign, saying "Incompetent, causing living cost to rise".

The woman, who was later identified as Sirima Nualjaem, agreed to leave the scene when asked to by police.

She later told reporters she wanted to express her dissatisfaction that the government failed to tackle rising cost of living.

The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Abhisit-met-with-protesting-signs-while-rallying-i-30156627.html

[Siripon]

why bother arguing...AV couldn't draw a big crowd if his life depended on it. Never elected, never respected.

He's so unrespected, whenever Apisit tabled a question in Parliament, Thaksin would take leave and assign a minion to answer.

He refused to debate with Apisit on TV prior the last election.

And when Thaksin promised not to dissolve Parliament after selling out to Temasek, and he knew he would face Apisit in Parliament, he abruptly changed his mind and dissolved Parliament rather than face Apisit.

And now his sister is doing the same!

Afraid, the pair of them.

Shame then that AV is only good at speaking and totally incompetent at implementing effective policies and even more incompetent at getting more seats than Thaksin in an election. That's gotta hurt!

Apisit doesn't have billions of baht. If Thaksin wasn't a billionaire, he would have been a laughing stock a long time ago.

His lasting achievement in Thai politics was he was the first to introduce policies as the selling point of a party, but unfortunately he is an egomaniac and obsessed with power to the extent he is prepared to let his country burn to further his ambition.

I have never known a man to tell so many lies as Thaksin- he even believes them himself, I think!

[samurai]

Abhisit called murderer during campaign at Bang Kapi

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva was called 'murderer' when he led his part campaign in Bangkok's Bang Kapi district Monday morning.

Abhisit faced the verbal attack when he was campaigning at the Sriboonruang Pier at 7:30 am.

A male resident of a condominium across the canal shouted "murderer" when Abhisit reached the spot.

The man kept on staring at Abhisit's campaign group. No violent incident occurred.

The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Abhisit-called-murderer-during-campaign-at-Bang-Ka-30156544.html

A red shirt woman confronted Apisit today on the hustings, she repeatedly said,' I only came here to buy lunch, I didn't know Apisit would be here', Apisit said,' So, why are you holding an anti- government sign?'!

No doubt Nattawut will say she was a fake red!

I think that is the woman described in the other news item posted.

Saw her on television too. Lots of journalists around and it looked like she was the only one who went to meet Abhisit.

[timekeeper]

why bother arguing...AV couldn't draw a big crowd if his life depended on it. Never elected, never respected.

He's so unrespected, whenever Apisit tabled a question in Parliament, Thaksin would take leave and assign a minion to answer.

He refused to debate with Apisit on TV prior the last election.

And when Thaksin promised not to dissolve Parliament after selling out to Temasek, and he knew he would face Apisit in Parliament, he abruptly changed his mind and dissolved Parliament rather than face Apisit.

And now his sister is doing the same!

Afraid, the pair of them.

Shame then that AV is only good at speaking and totally incompetent at implementing effective policies and even more incompetent at getting more seats than Thaksin in an election. That's gotta hurt!

who is AV?

[whybother]

who is AV?

Abhisit Vejjajiva

[Rimmer]

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