Current Thinking On How The Poll Will Play Out

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Current thinking on how the poll will play out

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

Campaign billboards and sound bites are all around - voters might feel overloaded in coping with a sudden surge of information bombardment.

A total of 40 political parties and 1,410 candidates are vying for 125 House seats allocated via proportionate vote. A further 2,325 candidates from 31 par?ties are contesting to fill 375 House seats via direct vote.

Siam Party has fielded just one candidate, while Pheu Thai will contest all 375 constituencies, followed by the Democrat Party, which have representatives standing in 372 seats.

On the July 3 balloting day, the party and candidates that can outshine the rest will claim victory.

Based on a number of opinion polls, the Democrat and Pheu Thai parties are in a fierce struggle to grab popular votes. Though Pheu Thai is slightly ahead, its lead is too narrow to ensure the outcome and the Democrats have more than 30 days to overtake their rivals.

Under projections of a 70 per cent voter turnout and a rough allocation of 300,000 votes per seat, the two rival parties are likely to share some 80 of the 125 proportionate seats up for grabs.

The remaining 45 seats will be shared by small parties, notably Chart Thai Pattana, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin and Bhum Jai Thai.

Newly-formed parties like Matubhum, Rak Santi and Palang Chon are likely to win party-list seats. Many see Chuwit Kamolvisit of Rak Prathet Thai Party as a shoo-in candidate. Due to his clever publicity stunt, he is enjoying the same media attention accorded to Democrat Abhisit Vejjajiva and Pheu Thai's Yingluck Shinawatra.

If popular votes cannot decisively swayed the outcome, then the two rival parties will have to outpace one another via direct vote in 375 constituencies.

The strength of individual candidates will be a critical factor that has not been polled at this juncture. In by-elections from 2008 to 2010, Bhum Jai Thai candidates consistently gained House seats in the Northeast despite Pheu Thai's domination and popularity. Each party has conducted straw polls to gauge the popularity of its candidates but there has been no independent verification.

The Democrats claim they will win about 200 House seats. Pheu Thai bosses have predicted a victory ranging from 210 to 270 seats, while Chart Thai Pattana has a modest projection of 30 seats and Bhum Jai Thai is aiming for 70 seats.

Pending checks by the Election Commission to verify candidacy qualifications, the Bureau of Registration Administration has released an unofficial roster of candidates, including 399 females.

The Democrats and Pheu Thai will dominate for the 33 House seats in Bangkok, which which will be contested by 311 candidates. Based on candidacy strengths, the Democrat Party has a slight advantage and may outpace Pheu Thai despite the popular sentiment.

In the North, a total of 351 candidates are competing for 53 seats in 16 provinces. Pheu Thai is expected to dominate the upper region while the Democrats and Chart Thai Pattana will claim the lower section.

In the Northeast, a total of 835 candidates will stand for 122 seats in 19 provinces. Pheu Thai is likely to dominate in the region but should not win more than 80 seats in the face of stiff competition from the Democrats, Bhum Jai Thai, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin and New Aspiration parties. In the Central region, a total of 530 candidates will contest 99 seats in 26 provinces. Votes are expected to be shared among the Democrats, Pheu Thai, Chart Thai Pattana and Palang Chon parties. In the South, a total of 297 candidates are vying for 53 seats in 14 provinces. The Democrats are expected to retain their dominant hold in the region. Matubhum Party may make inroads to grab popular votes in the three southernmost provinces, but its chances of winning constituency seats remain an open question.

-- The Nation 2011-05-31

[whybother]

Pheu Thai rules out working with Bhum Jai Thai

Pheu Thai Party deputy leader Plodprasop Suraswadi Tuesday ruled out working in the same coalition with the Bhum Jai Thai Party.

Plodprasop said the Pheu Thai did not have to ask voters for opinions whether the Pheu Thai should work with the Bhum Jai Thai.

"It will be useless to seek opinions of the people as we will work only with friends who have firm stand," Plodprasop said.

Plodprasop was commenting on reports that some core members of the Bhum Jai Thai said during election campaigns in Nakhon Ratchasima that the Bhum Jai Thai was willing to work with the Pheu Thai.

-- The Nation 2011-05-31

[whybother]

With Peau Thai ruling out forming a coalition with BJT, it gives them little chance of forming government.

[jdinasia]

With Peau Thai ruling out forming a coalition with BJT, it gives them little chance of forming government.

We have heard "we won't work in a coalition with them" in the past ... only to see said smaller parties actually go against what they have said. I wouldn't rule out anything from the smaller parties at this point .. and if it meant the difference between being the government or the opposition I know which way my money would go on PTP's statement

[Ricardo]

With Peau Thai ruling out forming a coalition with BJT, it gives them little chance of forming government.

We have heard "we won't work in a coalition with them" in the past ... only to see said smaller parties actually go against what they have said. I wouldn't rule out anything from the smaller parties at this point .. and if it meant the difference between being the government or the opposition I know which way my money would go on PTP's statement

Quite, it's one thing to rule out a coalition with their former friends & ex-members pre-election, but principles get over-ridden in the post-election scramble to form the coalition-government.

Not pretty, but that's politics for you, I guess.

[lanna2011]

I read BJT saying they will work with 'anyone' to get into power so I'm guessing PT may have a chance at govt when everyone thought they would be annihilated - interesting times

[whybother]

I read BJT saying they will work with 'anyone' to get into power so I'm guessing PT may have a chance at govt when everyone thought they would be annihilated - interesting times

Who's saying that PTP will get annihilated?

Most are saying that they will probably get the most seats, but not a majority.

Then it comes down to what the BJT and other smaller parties decide to do.

PTP have said that they won't partner with BJT ... but I'm sure that will change if the PTP need BJT to form government.

[lanna2011]

I read BJT saying they will work with 'anyone' to get into power so I'm guessing PT may have a chance at govt when everyone thought they would be annihilated - interesting times

Who's saying that PTP will get annihilated?

Most are saying that they will probably get the most seats, but not a majority.

Then it comes down to what the BJT and other smaller parties decide to do.

PTP have said that they won't partner with BJT ... but I'm sure that will change if the PTP need BJT to form government.

maybe i over exagerated but I have read some posters indicating that the Dems would win a landslide but I think this is wrong and PT will win the most single party votes - then the horsetrading - I did read at the weekend BJT saying they would join PT if necessary - will Abhisit survive?

[whybother]

maybe i over exagerated but I have read some posters indicating that the Dems would win a landslide but I think this is wrong and PT will win the most single party votes - then the horsetrading - I did read at the weekend BJT saying they would join PT if necessary - will Abhisit survive?

It appears unlikely that the Democrats will win in a landslide. Similarly for the PTP.

It WILL come down to the horse trading.

The BJT do seem to have indicated that they would join PTP "if necessary". But PTP have said they won't join with BJT.

I assume the "if necessary" means that they would if the Democrats could get into government without them. And I'm sure the PTP would accept them if that was the case, too.

[lanna2011]

maybe i over exagerated but I have read some posters indicating that the Dems would win a landslide but I think this is wrong and PT will win the most single party votes - then the horsetrading - I did read at the weekend BJT saying they would join PT if necessary - will Abhisit survive?

It appears unlikely that the Democrats will win in a landslide. Similarly for the PTP.

It WILL come down to the horse trading.

The BJT do seem to have indicated that they would join PTP "if necessary". But PTP have said they won't join with BJT.

I assume the "if necessary" means that they would if the Democrats could get into government without them. And I'm sure the PTP would accept them if that was the case, too.

yes exactly - let's see

[gregb]

maybe i over exagerated but I have read some posters indicating that the Dems would win a landslide but I think this is wrong and PT will win the most single party votes - then the horsetrading - I did read at the weekend BJT saying they would join PT if necessary - will Abhisit survive?

It appears unlikely that the Democrats will win in a landslide. Similarly for the PTP.

It WILL come down to the horse trading.

The BJT do seem to have indicated that they would join PTP "if necessary". But PTP have said they won't join with BJT.

I assume the "if necessary" means that they would if the Democrats could get into government without them. And I'm sure the PTP would accept them if that was the case, too.

Any BJT/PT coalition will be short lived, even if it is formed. The only reason the Democrats managed to hold to coalition together was because all the alternatives were worse. BJT will demand huge concessions from either party, and certain things like amnesty for Thaksin will not get their support, for the simple reason that they don't want to strengthen the PT party, and a free Thaksin is an armageddon scenario in Newin's eyes. His ban expires next year, and he can be counted on to act to preserve his piece of the action. Every weakness for PT is a strength for him.

If BJT manages to form a coalition with the PT, it will quickly evaporate as neither side will get what they want the most. What will be interesting is if a combined Democrat/BJT coalition could not get 50% of the seats. Then the status quo is in trouble.

[rubl]

With part of the PTP campaign in North-East still blaming BJT for 'betraying Thaksin', it's difficult to imagine a 'fruitful' co-operation between the two. A lot of spin would be needed to explain to voters why k. Thaksin's PTP could even think of working together with traitors. Maybe just say 'reconciliation', 'amnesty' and that would be enough ? K. Chalerm hugging k. Newin ? Politics for breakfast anyone ?

[Buchholz]

With part of the PTP campaign in North-East still blaming BJT for 'betraying Thaksin', it's difficult to imagine a 'fruitful' co-operation between the two. A lot of spin would be needed to explain to voters why k. Thaksin's PTP could even think of working together with traitors. Maybe just say 'reconciliation', 'amnesty' and that would be enough ? K. Chalerm hugging k. Newin ? Politics for breakfast anyone ?

Yingluck gave the same standard reply on the issue as she did for the debate issue:

Regarding the readiness expressed by the Bhumjaithai Party to work with the Pheu Thai Party as a coalition partner, Ms Yingluck responded that it is too soon to talk about the matter.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255406010007

[bungalownights]

Most BJT supporters also lean towards PT. Most dislike DEMs.

last election most of their voters voted for BJT because they expected Newin to stick with Thaksin.

BJT is paniking. im sure they will lose a lot of votes to PT this election

Edited June 1, 2011 by bungalownights

[Buchholz]

Most BJT supporters also lean towards PT. Most dislike DEMs.

last election most of their voters voted for BJT because they expected Newin to stick with Thaksin.

BJT is paniking. im sure they will lose a lot of votes to PT this election

the multiple by-elections they've had over the past 2 years don't support the contention that the voters there oppose the Democrats all that much as BJT has been in the coalition the whole time and additionally the BJT has consistently defeated the PTP in jointly contested areas, which doesn't support your other contention.

.

Edited June 1, 2011 by Buchholz

[whybother]

Most BJT supporters also lean towards PT. Most dislike DEMs.

last election most of their voters voted for BJT because they expected Newin to stick with Thaksin.

BJT is paniking. im sure they will lose a lot of votes to PT this election

Last election BJT didn't exist. They were part of the PPP.

In by-elections since the Democrats got into government, BJT MPs (ie used to be PPP) got re-elected under the BJT banner.

Most of these MPs could campaign under the XYZ banner and still get elected.

[rubl]

With part of the PTP campaign in North-East still blaming BJT for 'betraying Thaksin', it's difficult to imagine a 'fruitful' co-operation between the two. A lot of spin would be needed to explain to voters why k. Thaksin's PTP could even think of working together with traitors. Maybe just say 'reconciliation', 'amnesty' and that would be enough ? K. Chalerm hugging k. Newin ? Politics for breakfast anyone ?

Yingluck gave the same standard reply on the issue as she did for the debate issue:

Regarding the readiness expressed by the Bhumjaithai Party to work with the Pheu Thai Party as a coalition partner, Ms Yingluck responded that it is too soon to talk about the matter.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255406010007

From theNation BreakingNews

2011-05-31 02:05PM Pheu Thai rules out working with Bhum Jai Thai

"Pheu Thai Party deputy leader Plodprasop Suraswadi Tuesday ruled out working in the same coalition with the Bhum Jai Thai Party."

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Pheu-Thai-rules-out-working-with-Bhum-Jai-Thai-30156635.html

2011-06-01 02:44PM Yingluck says it's too soon to rule out working with Bhum Jai Thai

"Pheu Thai Party prime ministerial candidate Yingluck Shinawatra said Wednesday that it is too soon to rule out working in the same coalition with the Bhum Jai Thai Party."

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Yingluck-says-its-too-soon-to-rule-out-working-wit-30156756.html

Can you blame me for being confused about this matter ?

[jdinasia]

Most BJT supporters also lean towards PT. Most dislike DEMs.

last election most of their voters voted for BJT because they expected Newin to stick with Thaksin.

BJT is paniking. im sure they will lose a lot of votes to PT this election

You have brought up political naivety in a thread recently .... Your post above certainly shows it. BJT/Newin is one of the regional power families that have almost absolute control over their regions. (One of the largest failings of democracy in Thailand!) If your supposition above were to be believed then in the by-elections in the not very distant past, BJT (running as a party for the first time) would have been punished by the voters who would have voted PTP (running for elections for the very first time --- but clearly the Thaksin proxy party and replacement party for PPP) .......

What happened? Oh yeah, in every constituency where BJT was running against PTP ---- BJT won.

The Newin bloc will hold its ground on a constituency basis (and WILL gain ground on a party-list basis -- since they have nowhere to go but up!)

Other similar factions of various parties will do the same. S'noh's group will go with PTP unless something radical happens in the next 4 days which, after the time elapsed on the Alpine Golf scandal .... I doubt will happen. He owes Thaksin too much to cut and run. Suthep's base will stay with the Dems (Suthep controls Surat Thani and some other constituencies close by), Barnharn will keep his MP's etc etc etc ....

[Buchholz]

With part of the PTP campaign in North-East still blaming BJT for 'betraying Thaksin', it's difficult to imagine a 'fruitful' co-operation between the two. A lot of spin would be needed to explain to voters why k. Thaksin's PTP could even think of working together with traitors. Maybe just say 'reconciliation', 'amnesty' and that would be enough ? K. Chalerm hugging k. Newin ? Politics for breakfast anyone ?

Yingluck gave the same standard reply on the issue as she did for the debate issue:

Regarding the readiness expressed by the Bhumjaithai Party to work with the Pheu Thai Party as a coalition partner, Ms Yingluck responded that it is too soon to talk about the matter.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255406010007

From theNation BreakingNews

2011-05-31 02:05PM Pheu Thai rules out working with Bhum Jai Thai

"Pheu Thai Party deputy leader Plodprasop Suraswadi Tuesday ruled out working in the same coalition with the Bhum Jai Thai Party."

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Pheu-Thai-rules-out-working-with-Bhum-Jai-Thai-30156635.html

2011-06-01 02:44PM Yingluck says it's too soon to rule out working with Bhum Jai Thai

"Pheu Thai Party prime ministerial candidate Yingluck Shinawatra said Wednesday that it is too soon to rule out working in the same coalition with the Bhum Jai Thai Party."

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Yingluck-says-its-too-soon-to-rule-out-working-wit-30156756.html

Can you blame me for being confused about this matter ?

Give them another 24 hours and 36 minutes and the Pheu Thai Party Spokesman will come out with a third position on the issue.

[bungalownights]

Most BJT supporters also lean towards PT. Most dislike DEMs.

last election most of their voters voted for BJT because they expected Newin to stick with Thaksin.

BJT is paniking. im sure they will lose a lot of votes to PT this election

You have brought up political naivety in a thread recently .... Your post above certainly shows it. BJT/Newin is one of the regional power families that have almost absolute control over their regions. (One of the largest failings of democracy in Thailand!) If your supposition above were to be believed then in the by-elections in the not very distant past, BJT (running as a party for the first time) would have been punished by the voters who would have voted PTP (running for elections for the very first time --- but clearly the Thaksin proxy party and replacement party for PPP) .......

What happened? Oh yeah, in every constituency where BJT was running against PTP ---- BJT won.

The Newin bloc will hold its ground on a constituency basis (and WILL gain ground on a party-list basis -- since they have nowhere to go but up!)

Other similar factions of various parties will do the same. S'noh's group will go with PTP unless something radical happens in the next 4 days which, after the time elapsed on the Alpine Golf scandal .... I doubt will happen. He owes Thaksin too much to cut and run. Suthep's base will stay with the Dems (Suthep controls Surat Thani and some other constituencies close by), Barnharn will keep his MP's etc etc etc ....

Its no big secret that BJT voters stronly prefer a BJT-PT allicance rather then a DEMs alliance. The recent announcement (and subsequent snub by PT) supports this. Highly unlikely that newin will commit before votes are cast.

If you dont think this preference by the BJT voters will affect the voting outcome in favour of PT then sadly you are more politically naive then I thought

Edited June 1, 2011 by bungalownights

[whybother]

Its no big secret that BJT voters stronly prefer a BJT-PT allicance rather then a DEMs alliance. The recent announcement (and subsequent snub by PT) supports this. Highly unlikely that newin will commit before votes are cast.

If you dont think this preference by the BJT voters will affect the voting outcome in favour of PT then sadly you are more politically naive then I thought

It must be a big secret, since the BJT won by-elections convincingly while already in a Dem alliance.

The recent announcement supports the fact that the BJT will jump into bed with anyone to make sure they are in government.

How does voting for BJT favour PTP?

Edited June 1, 2011 by whybother

[rubl]

Its no big secret that BJT voters stronly prefer a BJT-PT allicance rather then a DEMs alliance. The recent announcement (and subsequent snub by PT) supports this. Highly unlikely that newin will commit before votes are cast.

If you dont think this preference by the BJT voters will affect the voting outcome in favour of PT then sadly you are more politically naive then I thought

BJT voters strongly prefer BJT-PTP coalition? I must have missed some newsflashes. Strangely in recent by-elections BJT candidates won over PTP ones. There seems to be a contradiction somewhere

[jdinasia]

Its no big secret that BJT voters stronly prefer a BJT-PT allicance rather then a DEMs alliance. The recent announcement (and subsequent snub by PT) supports this. Highly unlikely that newin will commit before votes are cast.

If you dont think this preference by the BJT voters will affect the voting outcome in favour of PT then sadly you are more politically naive then I thought

HUH? Yes it is a big secret! I welcome your showing me where BJT voters have been polled about this topic, but I can clearly show you that they voted for a BJT/Dem government in the last elections!

Can you document anything to suggest that BJT voters favor a PTP alliance? Were the voters polled before the BJT exec suggested that a PTP alliance was possible? You skipped all of the relevant issues in my post .... but simply BJT whilst in a Dem-led coalition beat PTP in every single constituency they contested. You state a voter preference with no evidence to back it up, whilst I can show that the only voter preference that BJT voters have ... is for BJT. Their election of the BJT MP's into a Dem led government proves this.

One consideration that has possibly been overlooked is that the BJT PTP alliance idea was floated for one very basic reason ---- to offer some pro-red voters in areas that are less tightly controlled like some areas of Korat --- the chance to vote against Thaksin's PTP with the hope of a more balanced representation in a PTP gov't --- while holding in mind that there has (as of yet) been no real indication that Newin's BJT will actually switch sides. In other words, a ruse to allow more moderate people a choice.

BJT and or CTP may be (read will in all likelihood be) in the position to truly control who forms the next government. The stronger they emerge in the polls the better they will do with government portfolios (ministry positions).

[lanna2011]

Most BJT supporters also lean towards PT. Most dislike DEMs.

last election most of their voters voted for BJT because they expected Newin to stick with Thaksin.

BJT is paniking. im sure they will lose a lot of votes to PT this election

yes i think there is truth in this as evidenced by the recent BJT asking some of its members at the rally - they prefer PT - not very scientific I know but... anyway they are ALL fickle and we simply won't know until it's 'time'

Edited June 1, 2011 by lanna2011

[bungalownights]

BJT party comes across as a mercenary party.

The way they flipped back and forth with their alliances while skimming off as much cream as they could get away with.

not sure that ALL their voters will feel comfortable with this, doubt that all will.

newin is nervous, yingluck fever is gaining momentum, and abhisit is looking much the same as before: a tired, worn out, used and impotent little puppet.

[lanna2011]

BJT party comes across as a mercenary party.

The way they flipped back and forth with their alliances while skimming off as much cream as they could get away with.

not sure that ALL their voters will feel comfortable with this, doubt that all will.

newin is nervous, yingluck fever is gaining momentum, and abhisit is looking much the same as before: a tired, worn out, used and impotent little puppet.

observant and true

[rubl]

BJT party comes across as a mercenary party.

The way they flipped back and forth with their alliances while skimming off as much cream as they could get away with.

not sure that ALL their voters will feel comfortable with this, doubt that all will.

newin is nervous, yingluck fever is gaining momentum, and abhisit is looking much the same as before: a tired, worn out, used and impotent little puppet.

observant and true

From the OP:

The strength of individual candidates will be a critical factor that has not been polled at this juncture. In by-elections from 2008 to 2010, Bhum Jai Thai candidates consistently gained House seats in the Northeast despite Pheu Thai's domination and popularity.

Poor voters, misled by k. Newin ? k. Abhisit a puppet? Ms. Yingluck fever may reach it's peak soon as with real fevers.

Observant, IMHO, and probably more true

[longway]

BJT party comes across as a mercenary party.

The way they flipped back and forth with their alliances while skimming off as much cream as they could get away with.

not sure that ALL their voters will feel comfortable with this, doubt that all will.

newin is nervous, yingluck fever is gaining momentum, and abhisit is looking much the same as before: a tired, worn out, used and impotent little puppet.

observant and true

abhisit is underrated, thaksin is overrated.

With some luck the Yingluck gimmick will fade and Thaksin will have his legs cut out from under him, Isaan no enjoys their parlimentary advantage in terms of seats per head of population.

[Siripon]

BJT party comes across as a mercenary party.

The way they flipped back and forth with their alliances while skimming off as much cream as they could get away with.

not sure that ALL their voters will feel comfortable with this, doubt that all will.

newin is nervous, yingluck fever is gaining momentum, and abhisit is looking much the same as before: a tired, worn out, used and impotent little puppet.

observant and true

Nasty words- I wonder how long before Yinglak starts to feel like a used and impotent little puppet, Thaksin has said from the start she is his clone, and she is afraid to step into a TV studio to face questions that require detailed responses.

Fevers never last long, ask Chamlong.

The only party that is not mercenary is the Democrats.

Banharn, Newin are only interested in feathering their own nests- they have no ideology.

Pheua Thai- if Thaksin disappeared tomorrow they would fall apart, as would the red shirts.

If you are a prospective MP for Pheua Thai,you had to sign your resignation letter before Thaksin would accept you, only the date is to be filled in when he decides you have outlived your purpose. A mere slave.

Knowledgeable,decent and liberal people like Apisit are diamonds amongst the chaff of self interested dinosaurs visible in the other parties.

[bungalownights]

Knowledgeable,decent and liberal people like Apisit are diamonds amongst the chaff of self interested dinosaurs visible in the other parties.

thanks for the laugh.

this is the same guy who was responsible for the deaths of 90+ people last year eh ?