Too Early To Underestimate Newin

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Too early to underestimate Newin

By Piyanart Srivalo

The Nation

If the results of recent opinion polls are accurate and the Pheu Thai Party wins the July 3 election, the hopes of veteran politician Newin Chidchob's Bhum Jai Thai Party becoming part of the next government are certain to be dashed.

In December 2008 Newin led a breakaway group of MPs from the People Power Party - Pheu Thai's former incarnation - to join a Democrat-led coalition government after a court dissolved the party for electoral fraud.

For Pheu Thai politicians, Newin is regarded as a "traitor" who is ungrateful to the party's "big boss" Thaksin Shinawatra, the fugitive former prime minister who is believed to be pulling the strings behind Pheu Thai.

Thaksin reportedly does not want a Pheu Thai-led coalition to include Bhum Jai Thai. The ex-premier's legal adviser Noppadon Patama, who is a key figure in Pheu Thai, said that it would be "very difficult" for the party to form a coalition with Newin's party, although he named the Chart Thai Pattana and Chart Pattana Puea Pandin parties as possible partners.

However, thanks to his political skills, Newin has not been idle about such "limitations". He recently predicted that neither Pheu Thai candidate and sister of Thaksin, Yingluck Shinawatra, nor Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva would head the next government.

Newin's prediction put Bhum Jai Thai in the news but also attracted strong reactions from the parties concerned. Figures from the Democrat and Pheu Thai parties described Newin's words as an attempt to improve Bhum Jai Thai's position ahead of the upcoming election.

There is also a coalition deal between small political parties like Bhum Jai Thai, Chart Thai Pattana, and Chart Pattana Puea Pandin to become a "third force" in parliamentary politics. Bhum Jai Thai, which is expected to win the third-largest number of House seats after Pheu Thai and the Democrats, is at the centre of the deal.

Earlier, Newin entered into a similar deal with Chart Thai Pattana's "big boss" Banharn Silapa-archa, whose official position is chief adviser to the current party leader, his brother Chumpol Silapa-archa.

Newin, who is Bhum Jai Thai's de-facto leader, is well aware that he is unable to sell his party on his own. A three-way alliance is likely to strengthen the "third choice".

However, it remains doubtful whether Bhum Jai Thai will be able to join a Pheu Thai-led coalition after the election. Pheu Thai appears to have made the decision.

"Although Yingluck is still noncommittal about this, the big boss has been clear from the start," a Pheu Thai source said, referring to Thaksin's decision to "punish" Newin by leaving Bhum Jai Thai out of any coalition.

Bhum Jai Thai's chances of winning 111 House seats - as earlier predicted by Newin - is still in question, judging from the party's poor popularity in the Northeast outside of its stronghold of Buri Ram and other lower Northeastern provinces.

Due to the likelihood of Bhum Jai Thai's poor showing, many incumbent Pheu Thai MPs have changed their minds about defecting to Newin's party. Instead some Bhum Jai Thai politicians defected to Pheu Thai, which is expected to win many House seats in the Northeast.

"Bhum Jai Thai earlier expected to win about 70 House seats but now the estimate has gone to less than half of that number. Possibly we could end up winning fewer House seats than Chart Thai Pattana, which is expected to win 30 seats," said a source in the current Democrat-led coalition.

Nevertheless, as the election remains a month away, it is too early to underestimate Newin, who has the potential to pull off more surprises in the run-up to the national polls.

-- The Nation 2011-06-02

[virtualtraveller]

How BJT fairs in th election is anyone's guess, no doubt they will spend big and shamelessly, but in the party list stakes and outside of their turf will anyone trust this party? Traditional Thaksin voters will shun BJT for Newins disloyalty, traditional Dem crowd will be wary of their corrupt practices.

it's a survival high stakes game for Newin, if he and the Dems have a disappointing showing he will be shut out of a PTP govt or will have to grovel to Thaksin to be included meaning the end of his rising star. don't be surprised if a PTP govt splits up BJT by causing mass defections after the election if they win.

Newins alliance with the other two parties to do their bidding together was a shrewd move but if BJT doesn't emerge convincingly as the third party, the other two will break ranks and opt to join PTP should the Dems lose convincingly. I think the magic number is 210, if PTP reach this, they can form a slim majority using CTP and PP. After all PTP only need a stable government long enough to reposition themselves as the incumbent and call a snap poll to assert a stronger victory.

[bf2002]

Not sure what part of farangland you are from, but perhaps this "snap election" thing is one major difference between those that follow the British parliamentary system (as is the case with Thailand) and those who come from a republic representative system of government.

I'm from the States, and while I'm not sure of other Americans, I'd never give up a "bird in the hand" if I were the PTP just to prove my strength....then again, maybe that is something needed for those that play the parlimentary govt game.

How BJT fairs in th election is anyone's guess, no doubt they will spend big and shamelessly, but in the party list stakes and outside of their turf will anyone trust this party? Traditional Thaksin voters will shun BJT for Newins disloyalty, traditional Dem crowd will be wary of their corrupt practices.

it's a survival high stakes game for Newin, if he and the Dems have a disappointing showing he will be shut out of a PTP govt or will have to grovel to Thaksin to be included meaning the end of his rising star. don't be surprised if a PTP govt splits up BJT by causing mass defections after the election if they win.

Newins alliance with the other two parties to do their bidding together was a shrewd move but if BJT doesn't emerge convincingly as the third party, the other two will break ranks and opt to join PTP should the Dems lose convincingly. I think the magic number is 210, if PTP reach this, they can form a slim majority using CTP and PP. After all PTP only need a stable government long enough to reposition themselves as the incumbent and call a snap poll to assert a stronger victory.

[jdinasia]

I expect Newin will manage 40+ constituency seats --- I have no idea what that will equate to in party-list. You can bet your bottom dollar that the Dems will take Newin's group .. and also that if it insured a victory so would PTP. (Which Thaksin would find VERY upsetting -- because BJT won't come cheap!) It'll cost more in ministry positions etc than either major party wants to pay; but pay they will ....

Newin is more than a bit of a cad --- but he is quite the political strategist/opportunist ... he'll most likely land on his feet.

There is a real possibility he'll be able to pull off a "unity" coalition with the Dems --- but to do it he'd have to make sure it was not a Dem or BJT in the PM's seat. (A CTP or CPPP PM in other words ...)

[gymboy33]

I expect Newin will manage 40+ constituency seats --- I have no idea what that will equate to in party-list. You can bet your bottom dollar that the Dems will take Newin's group .. and also that if it insured a victory so would PTP. (Which Thaksin would find VERY upsetting -- because BJT won't come cheap!) It'll cost more in ministry positions etc than either major party wants to pay; but pay they will ....

Newin is more than a bit of a cad --- but he is quite the political strategist/opportunist ... he'll most likely land on his feet.

There is a real possibility he'll be able to pull off a "unity" coalition with the Dems --- but to do it he'd have to make sure it was not a Dem or BJT in the PM's seat. (A CTP or CPPP PM in other words ...)

are you basing your bjt 40+ seats expectations on bjt routing ptp in those previous by-elections?

[jdinasia]

I expect Newin will manage 40+ constituency seats --- I have no idea what that will equate to in party-list. You can bet your bottom dollar that the Dems will take Newin's group .. and also that if it insured a victory so would PTP. (Which Thaksin would find VERY upsetting -- because BJT won't come cheap!) It'll cost more in ministry positions etc than either major party wants to pay; but pay they will ....

Newin is more than a bit of a cad --- but he is quite the political strategist/opportunist ... he'll most likely land on his feet.

There is a real possibility he'll be able to pull off a "unity" coalition with the Dems --- but to do it he'd have to make sure it was not a Dem or BJT in the PM's seat. (A CTP or CPPP PM in other words ...)

are you basing your bjt 40+ seats expectations on bjt routing ptp in those previous by-elections?

Nope I am basing the 40+ seats on the area that BJT/Newin controls.

[rubl]

begin removed ...

After all PTP only need a stable government long enough to reposition themselves as the incumbent and call a snap poll to assert a stronger victory.

TRT and k. Thaksin tried that once with disasterous results. When TRT under k. Thaksin called a snap poll February 2006 to try to stem voices of dissent regarding his sale of Shincorp shares to Temasak (and not paying taxes) the poll were boycotted, election annulled, etc., etc.

If PTP would try the same, what do you think the result would be this time? Probably real bloodshed and not that of any Shinawatra, or UDD leader methinks