Veterans Share A 'Thinking-The-Unthinkable' Vision: Thai Talk

[webfact]

THAI TALK

Veterans share a 'thinking-the-unthinkable' vision

By Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

If you are No 3, the last thing you want is for No 1 and No 2 to be cosying up to each other. And if you know that No 1 and No 2 can never get along, you naturally want either No 1 or No 2 to be wooing you.

In Newin Chidchob's case, the expected No 1 will never embrace him, no matter how desperate the situation is. So, in order to make sure that No 2 will not desert him, the No 3 leader will have to rock the boat - so much so that No 2 would never consider jettisoning him, no matter how undesirable the scenario may appear to be.

No 3's dream of a perfect situation is, of course, for No 1 and 2 to be caught in an impossible stalemate so that No 3 can emerge the real winner.

That, in brief, explains why Newin, the de facto leader of the Bhum Jait Thai Party, threw a political bombshell last week by making one of the most controversial statements in the campaign for the July 3 general election.

Out of nowhere, Newin - former Thaksin Shinawatra stalwart and, until before the House was dissolved a few weeks ago, the closest ally of the ruling Democrat Party - declared that neither Pheu Thai's Yingluck Shinawatra or the incumbent Democrat PM Abhisit Vejjajiva will become premier after the election.

His reasoning for this astounding prediction: The Democrats will lose to Pheu Thai, and Abhisit, to show his Oxford spirit, would call it quits. Yingluck, despite her party's victory, would be too vulnerable a target and Thaksin would put somebody "with more political immunity" in charge of the party.

So who will be the next PM then? Newin was coy about making a definitive forecast on that score, except to say that his party would win a minimum of 100 seats and would be in a position to dictate which party forms the government. In fact, if you listened carefully enough, the Bhum Jai Thai Party's owner was suggesting that he would be deciding who the next premier will be.

And then there was Banharn Silpa-archa's statement which more or less confirmed Newin's suggestion. The owner of the Chart Thai Pattana Party said that if a stalemate between the two major parties should materialise, he would put forward his chief adviser, Major General Sanan Kachornprasart, as candidate for the premiership.

Did Newin and Banharn, the No 3 and No 4 contenders in this election, conspire to float this "third hand" scenario? It isn't all that hard to imagine the two, who had in fact signed an alliance just a few weeks earlier, trying to convince each other that the only "bargaining chip" for No 3 and 4 against No 1 and 2 is to go for a "reconciliation formula".

Sanan, Banharn's chief adviser, portrayed himself as the "man of reconciliation" and had in fact met all the parties concerned to promote an atmosphere of compromise. Publicly the veteran politician has been coy about taking up any offer of leading a "national reconciliation government". Privately though, one of the scenarios being bandied about is for him to represent the "third choice" after the election.

Those who support this option have cited the case of the late MR Kukrit Pramoj, leader of the Social Action Party, who two decades or so ago was chosen as the "compromise PM" despite the fact that he was in control of only 18 seats in the House. "But things were different then," Sanan told reporters when confronted with the big question of whether he was contemplating a repeat of the country's political history.

Newin and Banharn are perhaps betting on the possibility that none of the major parties will win a majority of seats and that the public's apprehension about another political confrontation between Thaksin and Abhisit - renewing an atmosphere of tension - may lend itself to the "thinking-the-unthinkable" scenario.

For most political observers, though, this is nothing more than two political manipulators sharing a dream in the midst of the election campaign's heat - in the middle of a wet rainy season.

-- The Nation 2011-06-02

[bf2002]

With the options of a Dem party that's basically a poor copy of the PTP platform (tough on crime, populist give-aways to the thai masses to collapse the national budget) and the PTP (who hopefully remembers how Thaksin was able to actually PAY for his populist handouts plus he was in power during a time of thai and global growth that was greatly going on even without some of the market improvements he made), the only hope is a balanced 3rd party/coalition to balance things out.

Unfortunately, it's not likely Newin, his party, or his little coalition of other parties (if they even stick with him), will get enough power to stablize the mess that's coming pre and worst yet, post election.

[ableguy]

Why do these clowns make the headlines ?