The Battle Lines Are Drawn; Thailand Election

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ANALYSIS

The battle lines are drawn

By The Nation

Abhisit ready to let Pheu Thai form govt even if it wins the election by only a small margin

This is the time to bluff, not fold. That's why the Thai public are seeing the Pheu Thai and Bhum Jai Thai parties burn their bridges with each other. That's why the Pheu Thai camp is daring the Democrats to be "man enough" to let the election winner form the government. And that's also why the Democrats are telling Pheu Thai to re-read the Constitution.

Developments of the past few days made the political landscape a bit clearer. The Democrat and Bhum Jai Thai parties are on one side and Pheu Thai on the other, while the smaller camps sitting on the fence ready to go either way after July 3. Remaining to be seen is whether Pheu Thai, in ruling out an alliance with Bhum Jai Thai, was being paranoid or arrogant.

In a strongly worded statement released on Thursday and signed by party leader Yongyuth Wichaidit, Pheu Thai cited irreconcilable differences in ideology and work as grounds for shunning Bhum Jai Thai, which had no choice but to call the bluff. Newin Chidchob's party announced yesterday that they would never work with Pheu Thai either.

It's not difficult to speculate on Pheu Thai's motives. The opposition party must have wanted to cool down the high rating of certain Bhum Jai Thai candidates in the Northeast, where many of Newin's men are trying to penetrate a Thaksin-Yingluck fever and grab some constituency seats. How could the Bhum Jai Thai runners do that? Some are utilising their own influence and popularity, while others are trying to make voters believe that their party and Pheu Thai are in alliance.

Elect me as your constituency representative, and I don't mind if your party-list vote goes to Pheu Thai, some of the Bhum Jai Thai candidates have allegedly told voters.

Whether voters have been confused or not, Pheu Thai's leadership must have been worried. And the anxiety must have grown after Yingluck Shinawatra, in her characteristic friendly manner, did not rule out a Pheu Thai-Bhum Jai Thai alliance in an earlier remark this week. Apparently, the opposition party decided that enough was enough, and Yongyuth was asked to go public and shut the door on Bhum Jai Thai.

For Pheu Thai to come out this early to renounce the BJT, the party must have been both confident and unsure at the same time. On one hand, it must have been wary of Bhum Jai Thai's strategy in the Northeast, but on the other hand, Pheu Thai must have felt certain that it would win enough seats and not need Bhum Jai Thai in the future.

The Bhum Jai Thai camp was not to be scorned. Deputy leader Boonjong Wongtrairat, reading a party statement, said yesterday that the two parties' ideologies were different any way. He also hit where he thought would hurt, saying Bhum Jai Thai "adheres to constitutional monarchy and promotes peace and unity among different groups in the country".

Bhum Jai Thai spokesman Supachai Jaisamut followed suit, saying the party's decision not to form a coalition with Pheu Thai two years ago clearly indicated where Bhum Jai Thai stands. "And the fact that we set up a new political party clearly indicated that we don't want to be with them," he said.

In late 2008, after Pheu Thai's former incarnation, the People Power Party, was dissolved in a court order for electoral fraud, a group of politicians from the disbanded party formed Bhum Jai Thai while the larger portion remained with Pheu Thai, which is considered a proxy for fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

"The two parties are at the extreme opposite ends of the political spectrum," the spokesman said. His and Boonjong's declarations mean Bhum Jai Thai would have one option left if it was to remain on the government side after the election. It will have to keep the alliance with the ruling Democrats.

Abhisit Vejjajiva will need Bhum Jai Thai's help to keep his hold on power. In a TV interview yesterday, he indicated that if Pheu Thai wins the election, he would let it try to form a government first regardless of the margin of victory. The unspoken yet crucial part of that message, however, was that if Pheu Thai failed to garner enough votes to make Yingluck new prime minister, it would be his turn.

Democrat Chamni Sakdiseth, in an earlier TV debate with Pheu Thai's Natthawut Saikua, was more clear-cut when discussing who should be allowed to form the new government. The charter, Chamni pointed out, says the prime minister is elected in Parliament, not necessarily through election results.

Now the Thai public are getting a clearer picture of who's allying with whom and who are keeping their options open. This, however, doesn't mean things will remain this way after July 3, when principles will certainly give way to expediency.

-- The Nation 2011-06-04