Thaksin's Adviser Noppadon: If Everyone Abides By Poll Result, There Won't Be Post-Election Chaos

[anterian]

As I said to my Thai partner, with all this vote buying why can't you get some extra cash. She said she would if she could but none of the local candidates are offering any

What they do do, is provide community benefits, street lights, swings for children in the recreation area, health checks, things like that.

I have no Idea what area, but you don't sound like your Issan area, as your wife would be quids in for sure, taking all from whatever party, apart from the votes all the attendance money paid for being at the rallies, the locals in my area are all smiles, ( I think it's the local whiskey thats doing it). Where the reds are getting their cash from I couldn't guess throwing it around like confetti. But if these Issan people don't get what has been promissed if they win, they will turn very angry.

I'm not sure why you said "your Issan area", I live in a fairly poor suburban village approximately 30km North of Bangkok. The canvassers are out around here, the Dems got heckled, the Reds got heckled, the village boss is blatantly Red, his wife is Yellow. My partner is yellow, the entire village is split, even families. There is talk, discussions, no fights, much laughter, this is how it should be.

[SomTumTiger]

Thaksin will be granted amnesty. Thaksin will return to Thailand. Thaksin will be arrested by the Army. The country will go into chaos. The Army will take over..... you heard it hear.

Your prognostication skills need a little work, if you think that Thaksin will ever return with the remote possibility of an arrest.

[animatic]

Thaksin will be granted amnesty. Thaksin will return to Thailand. Thaksin will be arrested by the Army. The country will go into chaos. The Army will take over..... you heard it hear.

Your prognostication skills need a little work, if you think that Thaksin will ever return with the remote possibility of an arrest.

And without a seriously armored vehicle to leave home in.

ATW-proof if possible.

His days of riding on motor bikes to press the flesh are truly over.

Edited June 14, 2011 by animatic

[samurai]

And without a seriously armored vehicle to leave home in.

ATW-proof if possible.

His days of riding on motor bikes to press the flesh are truly over.

You mean in the predicted 'civil war' after a PT election victory, the true democracy lover who had gone underground and formed the resistance movement DAEE (Democrats Against Evil Election) would deliver justice with the help of a panzerfaust?

[animatic]

And without a seriously armored vehicle to leave home in.

ATW-proof if possible.

His days of riding on motor bikes to press the flesh are truly over.

You mean in the predicted 'civil war' after a PT election victory, the true democracy lover who had gone underground and formed the resistance movement DAEE (Democrats Against Evil Election) would deliver justice with the help of a panzerfaust?

I am saying that Thaksin didn't act like most every Thai who was deposed in the past, save one who died abroad, and Thaksin has acted very much UN-thai, except for being obsessed with regaining face. They had never expected this aggressive reaction from him and the mind set, that he is unstable and dangerous, is not lessened since 2006, if anything it is greatly increased.

I doubt it would be ' the army' in any official capacity, but the black shirts were not 'official army', nor 'official red shirts', hard to imagine there are not 'other players' who will play hardball just as strong as Thaksin has proven willing to do, via clandestine means. For therm he has made it a necessity.

He has proven that he is willing to sow insurrection and terror through Thailand to win his games goals. Which appear to be a Shinawatra dynasty in the classic 100 years Chinese Family style. Why would I NOT expect others to feel exactly the same?

There is going to be a sad event in the foreseeable future, and this is all about gaining position for that day. It is a deadly serious game afoot. Thaksin has made himself the biggest target of opportunity in Thailands history.

Edited June 14, 2011 by animatic

[samurai]

And without a seriously armored vehicle to leave home in.

ATW-proof if possible.

His days of riding on motor bikes to press the flesh are truly over.

You mean in the predicted 'civil war' after a PT election victory, the true democracy lover who had gone underground and formed the resistance movement DAEE (Democrats Against Evil Election) would deliver justice with the help of a panzerfaust?

I am saying that Thaksin didn't act like most every Thai who was deposed in the past, save one who died abroad, and Thaksin has acted very much UN-thai, except for being obsessed with regaining face. They had never expected this aggressive reaction from him and the mind set, that he is unstable and dangerous, is not lessened since 2006, if anything it is greatly increased.

I doubt it would be ' the army' in any official capacity, but the black shirts were not 'official army', nor 'official red shirts', hard to imagine there are not 'other players' who will play hardball just as strong as Thaksin has proven willing to do, via clandestine means. For therm he has made it a necessity.

He has proven that he is willing to sow insurrection and terror through Thailand to win his games goals. Which appear to be a Shinawatra dynasty in the classic 100 years Chinese Family style. Why would I NOT expect others to feel exactly the same?

There is going to be a sad event in the foreseeable future, and this is all about gaining position for that day. It is a deadly serious game afoot. Thaksin has made himself the biggest target of opportunity in Thailands history.

He has proven that he is willing to sow insurrection and terror through Thailand to win his games goals.

His evil tactic is called: winning the election & popular mandate.

[ianbaggie]

I may be wrong, (and I admit that Thai politics can frequently defy Western logic), but I can see three scenarios that could lead to post-election violence:

1. PT fails to win the largest number of seats: The Redshirts would be out in a flash, claiming electoral fraud.

2. PT wins more seat than any other party (quite likely), but fails to put together a coalition: Again the Reds would come out.

3. PT forms a government and tries to give Thaksin amnesty. The Yellows would be revitalized or the army would step in. - I don't think a PT victory, in and of itself, would lead to violence only the threatened return of Thaksin would.

Well I have to agree with you a pt victory would not lead to violence but a pt loss would. Thaksin spent a lot of money to get the chance to come back and he would not just roll over if all doors were shut in his face with the exception of coming back and doing the Democratic thing and serving his time.

Spot on hello Dolly - never forget whos pulling the strings here - whos leading the corruption and whos ego is damaging thailand.

[ianbaggie]

His evil tactic is called: winning the election & popular mandate.

No his evil tactic - i think youll find is hiring a bunch of thugs with guns to support his bribed masses when they burn and loot thailand and kill people with M79 grenades last year, Thaksins ego backed by his stolen financial wealth will keep Thailand in the dark ages for centuries to come. Some people recognise the "truth Today" while others just follow a fashion Samurai

[Scubadude770]

Thaksin will be granted amnesty. Thaksin will return to Thailand. Thaksin will be arrested by the Army. The country will go into chaos. The Army will take over..... you heard it hear.

Your prognostication skills need a little work, if you think that Thaksin will ever return with the remote possibility of an arrest.

Main point is : The Army rules the roost in this country. Thaksin may indeed return thinking he is safe but neither he nor any political party will ever be out of the scope of the military's desire. What the military wants...they get. Slightest hint of a problem and they will take over if it meets their agenda. It has been this way for a long long time here.

[Roadman]

Thaksin will be granted amnesty. Thaksin will return to Thailand. Thaksin will be arrested by the Army. The country will go into chaos. The Army will take over..... you heard it hear.

Your prognostication skills need a little work, if you think that Thaksin will ever return with the remote possibility of an arrest.

Main point is : The Army rules the roost in this country. Thaksin may indeed return thinking he is safe but neither he nor any political party will ever be out of the scope of the military's desire. What the military wants...they get. Slightest hint of a problem and they will take over if it meets their agenda. It has been this way for a long long time here.

And long may it stay that way until such time as the government of the day learns to mostly rule democratically. I put forward 'mostly' to recognise that none of them are perfect in the massive mess of corruption and unpunished criminal behavior that plagues the country.