Election Battle Hinges On The 250-Seat 'Trigger Point': Thai Talk

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THAI TALK

Election battle hinges on the 250-seat 'trigger point'

By Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

It's almost certain that the only factor to decide whether it's Pheu Thai or the Democrats that will form the next government is whether Pheu Thai can win more than 250 seats in the 500-member House.

It it's a landslide victory for Pheu Thai, as is being predicted by some party insiders, meaning that it can snatch over 300 seats while the Democrats garner below 200, a one-party government is a legitimate, if not a politically wise, option.

But if Pheu Thai gets somewhere between 230-250 seats (the medium-case scenario), it runs the risk of being beaten by the Democrats in forming the next coalition, whether or not it emerges first or second.

Three weeks before the July 3 election day, the Democrats appear to be resigned that winning 200 seats will be an almost impossible task. In other words, the party's leadership seems to have accepted the fact, whether they are willing to admit it publicly or not, that they won't be able to beat Pheu Thai in terms of number of seats.

Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva may still be telling everyone who cares to listen that the two major parties' margin of victory will be quite close - somewhere around 4-5 per cent. But most public opinion polls suggest that Pheu Thai will lead the Democrats by 40-60 seats, if not more.

Both sides claim they will produce some "last-minute surprises" that will boost their respective chances at the ballot box, which will help the estimated 30 per cent of "undecided voters" to make up their minds in their favour.

The Democrats promise "continuity" while Pheu Thai pledges the return of the Thaksin brand of populism. The Democrat Party's weakest link is its far-from-impressive performance over the past two years in power and the perception that it is closely linked to the military establishment.

Pheu Thai's most vulnerable and questionable plank is the spectre of absolving Thaksin of his guilt to pave the way for his highly controversial return to the country, which will no doubt be the single most destabilising factor in Thai politics after the election.

Some senior executives of the Democrats have privately admitted they might be able to win somewhere between 170 and 180 seats. Any number above 200 would be a "Godsend". But if the returns produce fewer than 150 seats, that would be a "disaster" that could see Abhisit quitting the party's leadership to accept responsibility for his failure.

If the Democrats do emerge in the 170-180 range, they will go all out to edge out Pheu Thai by trying to form the next coalition government with Newin Chidchob's Bhum Jai Thai Party, Banharn Silpa-archa's Chart Thai Pattana, and Suwat Liptapanlop's Chart Pattana Puea Pandin, whose combined force could be around 80-100 seats.

Pheu Thai, of course, will cry foul if the Democrats mount that pre-emptive attack. As the expected biggest party after the election, Pheu Thai will claim the legitimate right to form the new administration - and that the Democrats should just step aside.

The most likely scenario is that Pheu Thai, winning the most number of seats, will first try to invite Banharn and Suwat to join a new line-up -even if Pheu Thai wins a comfortable majority.

Thaksin has said he learned a painful lesson when his party went ahead to form a one-party government. When you leave the small parties out, you simply court trouble because they join with the opposition to harass you. "A vase of beautiful flowers still needs some ferns to make things look complete," he told a reporter - a statement that has become the guiding principle of post-election politics.

Is the possibility of a "grand coalition" between Pheu Thai and the Democrats ruled out completely? Pheu Thai's Yingluck has refused to comment. Democrat leader Abhisit did respond to the query, albeit with his tongue in cheek: "Of course we can talk. But such a talk can take place only if Pheu Thai agrees to abolish two main policies: amnesty and rice mortgage."

In other words, forget it. Any suggestion of a grand coalition will inevitably turn into a super non-starter.

-- The Nation 2011-06-16

[virtualtraveller]

For all it's popularity with the masses, and not withstanding voters dissatisfaction with the present Army influenced power, Puea Thai is not a party you can take seriously, it's a farce run on r emote control from Dubai with a clone political lightweight as it's prime minister, and an agenda to whitewash the most divisive and criminal leader in recent memory. that alone is a good enough reason why smaller parties can be persuaded not to form a coalition it, clear and simple. But if PTP 'win' by 40 seats or more, the public just aren't going to accept a minority govt and we should face up to the fact that the Reds will have good reason to take to the streets once more.

It's shaping up to be an election that will only spell trouble for Thailand. Best scenario is that PTP be allowed to form a government but with coalition partners who block any moves towards amnesty. Let them get on with dishing out to the poor and we will soon see that they are no better or worse than the present govt.

[snorkelador]

For all it's popularity with the masses, and not withstanding voters dissatisfaction with the present Army influenced power, Puea Thai is not a party you can take seriously, it's a farce run on r emote control from Dubai with a clone political lightweight as it's prime minister, and an agenda to whitewash the most divisive and criminal leader in recent memory. that alone is a good enough reason why smaller parties can be persuaded not to form a coalition it, clear and simple. But if PTP 'win' by 40 seats or more, the public just aren't going to accept a minority govt and we should face up to the fact that the Reds will have good reason to take to the streets once more.

It's shaping up to be an election that will only spell trouble for Thailand. Best scenario is that PTP be allowed to form a government but with coalition partners who block any moves towards amnesty. Let them get on with dishing out to the poor and we will soon see that they are no better or worse than the present govt.

Good point, well presented!

[OzMick]

For all it's popularity with the masses, and not withstanding voters dissatisfaction with the present Army influenced power, Puea Thai is not a party you can take seriously, it's a farce run on r emote control from Dubai with a clone political lightweight as it's prime minister, and an agenda to whitewash the most divisive and criminal leader in recent memory. that alone is a good enough reason why smaller parties can be persuaded not to form a coalition it, clear and simple. But if PTP 'win' by 40 seats or more, the public just aren't going to accept a minority govt and we should face up to the fact that the Reds will have good reason to take to the streets once more.

It's shaping up to be an election that will only spell trouble for Thailand. Best scenario is that PTP be allowed to form a government but with coalition partners who block any moves towards amnesty. Let them get on with dishing out to the poor and we will soon see that they are no better or worse than the present govt.

Minority govt? This term means that a coalition with less than 50% of seats takes power because of a hung parliament. If the non-PTP parties have more than 50% of seats and form a govt, the reds will hit the streets because they just don't understand how democracy works - and Thaksin's educators/agitators will tell them it is NOT democratic when the opposite is true.

What is truly undemocratic is running persons facing serious criminal charges as candidates assured of being elected (high on the party list) to give them indemnity from facing those charges indefinitely. This is subverting the other branches of the democratic system. To claim that these are the best possible candidates that can be found would be (hopefully) absurd.

[clausewitz]

For all it's popularity with the masses, and not withstanding voters dissatisfaction with the present Army influenced power, Puea Thai is not a party you can take seriously, it's a farce run on r emote control from Dubai with a clone political lightweight as it's prime minister, and an agenda to whitewash the most divisive and criminal leader in recent memory. that alone is a good enough reason why smaller parties can be persuaded not to form a coalition it, clear and simple. But if PTP 'win' by 40 seats or more, the public just aren't going to accept a minority govt and we should face up to the fact that the Reds will have good reason to take to the streets once more.

It's shaping up to be an election that will only spell trouble for Thailand. Best scenario is that PTP be allowed to form a government but with coalition partners who block any moves towards amnesty. Let them get on with dishing out to the poor and we will soon see that they are no better or worse than the present govt.

Minority govt? This term means that a coalition with less than 50% of seats takes power because of a hung parliament. If the non-PTP parties have more than 50% of seats and form a govt, the reds will hit the streets because they just don't understand how democracy works - and Thaksin's educators/agitators will tell them it is NOT democratic when the opposite is true.

What is truly undemocratic is running persons facing serious criminal charges as candidates assured of being elected (high on the party list) to give them indemnity from facing those charges indefinitely. This is subverting the other branches of the democratic system. To claim that these are the best possible candidates that can be found would be (hopefully) absurd.

Do you mean like when the current Minsiter of Foreign affairs was arrested under charges of Terrorism and then given his post?

[jayboy]

For all it's popularity with the masses, and not withstanding voters dissatisfaction with the present Army influenced power, Puea Thai is not a party you can take seriously, it's a farce run on r emote control from Dubai with a clone political lightweight as it's prime minister, and an agenda to whitewash the most divisive and criminal leader in recent memory. that alone is a good enough reason why smaller parties can be persuaded not to form a coalition it, clear and simple. But if PTP 'win' by 40 seats or more, the public just aren't going to accept a minority govt and we should face up to the fact that the Reds will have good reason to take to the streets once more.

It's shaping up to be an election that will only spell trouble for Thailand. Best scenario is that PTP be allowed to form a government but with coalition partners who block any moves towards amnesty. Let them get on with dishing out to the poor and we will soon see that they are no better or worse than the present govt.

The Economist has a different take.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2011/06/thailands-election

[Thai at Heart]

For all it's popularity with the masses, and not withstanding voters dissatisfaction with the present Army influenced power, Puea Thai is not a party you can take seriously, it's a farce run on r emote control from Dubai with a clone political lightweight as it's prime minister, and an agenda to whitewash the most divisive and criminal leader in recent memory. that alone is a good enough reason why smaller parties can be persuaded not to form a coalition it, clear and simple. But if PTP 'win' by 40 seats or more, the public just aren't going to accept a minority govt and we should face up to the fact that the Reds will have good reason to take to the streets once more.

It's shaping up to be an election that will only spell trouble for Thailand. Best scenario is that PTP be allowed to form a government but with coalition partners who block any moves towards amnesty. Let them get on with dishing out to the poor and we will soon see that they are no better or worse than the present govt.

The Economist has a different take.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2011/06/thailands-election

Interesting take. If it is only half true, we are heading for a very interesting time. I do agree however, that she has caught the dems and the army by surprise. Abhisit really isn't a great campaigner, and as much as I like Korn, he is very quiet recently. So it is left to people like Suthep to carry the battle, and he really doesn't know how to do it, I believe. Whether they get an overall majority, lets see, but it is still undoubted that there is still very reliable support for PTP.

It will probably turn out that the whole PTP platform will have been run and organised by some overseas image consultants, and everyone will cry unfair.

[bungalownights]

Puea Thai is not a party you can take seriously,

Maybe for you but the electorate says otherwise

[rubl]

The Economist has a different take.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2011/06/thailands-election

The article is interesting, especially this part

"The Democrat Party grumbles that it’s just a circus, that in reality she is merely a lightweight and wholly unqualified to run the country. Which, of course, might well be true—but it misses the point entirely. She is the perfect early 21st-century political candidate, a beautiful fit for the modern mass media: telegenic, charismatic and very easy for voters to relate to. Her stump speech is short and to the point, just endlessly hammering home a few key populist economic policies that everyone can remember (free tablet PCs for school kids, rise in minimum wage, etc), and then it’s back to loving the camera."

[lungmi]

Puea Thai is not a party you can take seriously,

Maybe for you but the electorate says otherwise

Virtualtraveller understood quickly, the electorate has to learn. The Italian electorate took longtime to suss out Berlustconi. Now they put him in the garbage can of history, Thaksin will follow him.

[rubl]

In the House which was dissolved last month the PTP had 189 seats, Dem's 172, BJT 32, CPPP 32, CTP 25 (give or take one or two). With the number of seats increased from 475 to 500, let's assume a split of 12,10,1,1,1 over the parties named. That make PTP 201, Dem's 182.

Somehow we must be looking as BIG losers if PTP aims at 270 - 300 seats, Dem's in a positive mood at 200. Maybe we need another 100 extra seats

[pastitche]

In the House which was dissolved last month the PTP had 189 seats, Dem's 172, BJT 32, CPPP 32, CTP 25 (give or take one or two). With the number of seats increased from 475 to 500, let's assume a split of 12,10,1,1,1 over the parties named. That make PTP 201, Dem's 182.

Somehow we must be looking as BIG losers if PTP aims at 270 - 300 seats, Dem's in a positive mood at 200. Maybe we need another 100 extra seats

"As usual my 2 cents worth of personal opinion...."

"let's assume.....'" is there some reasoning behind your assumption that the ratio will be as you suggest?

[maidu]

If I were advising Abhisit, I'd suggest he get a photo of Thaksin and other Red Shirt spokespeople and funders, and a big white blank space in the middle of the picture. Photoshopped, ok. And, while holding up the large photo, I'd good-naturedly ask the audience, "Where's Ms Yingluck?" "Why won't she debate, or at least state her positions?" "Do you want to vote for someone who is can't converse about topics important to Thai people?" "Do you want to vote for someone who thumbs her nose at the entire judiciary system?"

Every thing of significance she says, is going to be immediately scrutinized as to whether it is her thinking or her brother's. Puea Thai's publicized motto is "Thaksin Thinks, PT Acts." If she makes a decision or opinion which appears to be wise, she can credit it to her brother. If she makes a decision or has an opinion which turns out to be harmful for Thailand (which so many of her brother's decisions were), then how will she back out of it? If she takes the same attitude as she does with debates, she'll simply hush up and/or hide away.

I see nothing but troubles if the lady gets put in the PM's seat. Even if she has a tad of wisdom, she will always be dogged by the refrain, "is this your idea, or your brother's?"

......and that's just the tip of the iceberg.

[rubl]

In the House which was dissolved last month the PTP had 189 seats, Dem's 172, BJT 32, CPPP 32, CTP 25 (give or take one or two). With the number of seats increased from 475 to 500, let's assume a split of 12,10,1,1,1 over the parties named. That make PTP 201, Dem's 182.

Somehow we must be looking as BIG losers if PTP aims at 270 - 300 seats, Dem's in a positive mood at 200. Maybe we need another 100 extra seats

"As usual my 2 cents worth of personal opinion...."

"let's assume.....'" is there some reasoning behind your assumption that the ratio will be as you suggest?

My assumption of the 12,10,1,1,1 split is only to suggest a possible division if in 2007 we already had 500 seats. With this artificial 500 seats allocation we can start to do interesting maths and try to predict how things will be / might be / should be after the July 3rd elections. Not perfect, but easier. No more, no less.

Edited June 16, 2011 by rubl

[animatic]

For all it's popularity with the masses, and not withstanding voters dissatisfaction with the present Army influenced power, Puea Thai is not a party you can take seriously, it's a farce run on r emote control from Dubai with a clone political lightweight as it's prime minister, and an agenda to whitewash the most divisive and criminal leader in recent memory. that alone is a good enough reason why smaller parties can be persuaded not to form a coalition it, clear and simple. But if PTP 'win' by 40 seats or more, the public just aren't going to accept a minority govt and we should face up to the fact that the Reds will have good reason to take to the streets once more.

It's shaping up to be an election that will only spell trouble for Thailand. Best scenario is that PTP be allowed to form a government but with coalition partners who block any moves towards amnesty. Let them get on with dishing out to the poor and we will soon see that they are no better or worse than the present govt.

Minority govt? This term means that a coalition with less than 50% of seats takes power because of a hung parliament. If the non-PTP parties have more than 50% of seats and form a govt, the reds will hit the streets because they just don't understand how democracy works - and Thaksin's educators/agitators will tell them it is NOT democratic when the opposite is true.

What is truly undemocratic is running persons facing serious criminal charges as candidates assured of being elected (high on the party list) to give them indemnity from facing those charges indefinitely. This is subverting the other branches of the democratic system. To claim that these are the best possible candidates that can be found would be (hopefully) absurd.

Do you mean like when the current Minsiter of Foreign affairs was arrested under charges of Terrorism and then given his post?

NO he does not.

He had the post before he was charged,

and the charges were shortly dropped.

He went to 'speak to the rally, but did nothing to create the airport take over

nor did anything that encouraged the take over. Hence no valid charges.

I think there were better choices than him for FM, but obviously someone felt he needed to be there.

To this day I have no clue why. But that has nothing to do with his legally having the position.

[animatic]

Puea Thai is not a party you can take seriously,

Maybe for you but the electorate says otherwise

Not yet it doesn't.

Only manipulated polls hint at things, nothing more.

[samurai]

If I were advising Abhisit, I'd suggest he get a photo of Thaksin and other Red Shirt spokespeople and funders, and a big white blank space in the middle of the picture. Photoshopped, ok. And, while holding up the large photo, I'd good-naturedly ask the audience, "Where's Ms Yingluck?" "Why won't she debate, or at least state her positions?" "Do you want to vote for someone who is can't converse about topics important to Thai people?" "Do you want to vote for someone who thumbs her nose at the entire judiciary system?"

Every thing of significance she says, is going to be immediately scrutinized as to whether it is her thinking or her brother's. Puea Thai's publicized motto is "Thaksin Thinks, PT Acts." If she makes a decision or opinion which appears to be wise, she can credit it to her brother. If she makes a decision or has an opinion which turns out to be harmful for Thailand (which so many of her brother's decisions were), then how will she back out of it? If she takes the same attitude as she does with debates, she'll simply hush up and/or hide away.

I see nothing but troubles if the lady gets put in the PM's seat. Even if she has a tad of wisdom, she will always be dogged by the refrain, "is this your idea, or your brother's?"

......and that's just the tip of the iceberg.

"is this your idea, or your brother's?" She is not some post-feminist from the west or a grumpy old falang loner. She comes from a Thai.Chinese family. Not a deficit but a strength.

That is what a sore loser would do and Abhisit does it. Begging for a debate. What does Yingluck? She ignores him, the silent treatment. She says mearly nothing about the Democrats on her campaign tour. No rants, no blames. Simply ignore them. Only promote the PT policies.

Dinosaur rat Suthep gets more and more frustrated because the Dems thought she would be easy an easy game. But she doesn't play with them.

Meanwhile Yingluck is smiling allover the place, on top of the polls, in front of the newspaper and seen on TV. Her campaign is successful throughout the country and the Dems can only get some press when they rant about Thaksin. Problem Thaksin was the most popular PM ever, it was only a minority that had issues with him and it makes the Dems even more desperate looking.

The harmony seeking collectivist society goes with the winner and the popular one becomes more popular.

Look at the polls. Then you will know who wins in two weeks with a landslide.

The EX-PM has to look for a new job. I heard that for the first time in his life he want to do some real work and start his own business. *Selling eggs by kilo* Its innovative he said and that he is optimistic that it will be a success.

Edited June 16, 2011 by samurai

[gymboy33]

Puea Thai is not a party you can take seriously,

Maybe for you but the electorate says otherwise

Not yet it doesn't.

Only manipulated polls hint at things, nothing more.

even old mark is taking these polls in except the ones with more then 50% undecided.

they cant all be manipulated by the "evil one"???

[letitbe]

Not yet it doesn't.

Only manipulated polls hint at things, nothing more.

[/quote

even old mark is taking these polls in except the ones with more then 50% undecided.ry

they cant all be manipulated by the "evil one"???

and tell me your hero is nowhere as bad

your probably right but it still will be a disaster for Thailand. You can crow as much as you want when years down road Taksin manages to make Thailand a real third world country. Wait and see and if what you want happens think about it as you grow older how you were completely mislead and fooled unless of course if it comes to it the army again saves Thailand from itself . I would love to see your face years later if you get what you want and yes read about killing fields and dont try and say your hero could not be as bad hes already shown he could be

[maidu]

If I were advising Abhisit, I'd suggest he get a photo of Thaksin and other Red Shirt spokespeople and funders, and a big white blank space in the middle of the picture. Photoshopped, ok. And, while holding up the large photo, I'd good-naturedly ask the audience, "Where's Ms Yingluck?" "Why won't she debate, or at least state her positions?" "Do you want to vote for someone who is can't converse about topics important to Thai people?" "Do you want to vote for someone who thumbs her nose at the entire judiciary system?"

Every thing of significance she says, is going to be immediately scrutinized as to whether it is her thinking or her brother's. Puea Thai's publicized motto is "Thaksin Thinks, PT Acts." If she makes a decision or opinion which appears to be wise, she can credit it to her brother. If she makes a decision or has an opinion which turns out to be harmful for Thailand (which so many of her brother's decisions were), then how will she back out of it? If she takes the same attitude as she does with debates, she'll simply hush up and/or hide away.

I see nothing but troubles if the lady gets put in the PM's seat. Even if she has a tad of wisdom, she will always be dogged by the refrain, "is this your idea, or your brother's?"

......and that's just the tip of the iceberg.

"is this your idea, or your brother's?" She is not some post-feminist from the west or a grumpy old falang loner. She comes from a Thai.Chinese family. Not a deficit but a strength. That is what a sore loser would do and Abhisit does it. Begging for a debate. What does Yingluck? She ignores him, the silent treatment. She says mearly nothing about the Democrats on her campaign tour. No rants, no blames. Simply ignore them. Only promote the PT policies.

Meanwhile Yingluck is smiling allover the place, on top of the polls, in front of the newspaper and seen on TV. Her campaign is successful throughout the country.......

I don't think Abhisit is a 'sore loser' (as you say) for requesting a debate. It's incumbent to an election to enable the electorate to hear where candidates stand on issues.

The Dems are holding the winning cards, if they only knew how to play them. They need to get more of the Thai electorate to think a little bit - to lump the Reds, PT, Thaksin and his clone together as being harmful to Thailand - which they are (unless you think burning down large BKK buildings, and avoiding billions in tax payments is not harmful to Thailand). Just today, there's another big denial/avoidance by Yingluck in the news (fraternizing with Arisman). It's her style. She can't think for herself, and only speaks on the issues in a fluffy generalized way, when she can't avoid it. If she's PM, she'll do more of the same: hide away, defer decisions, make excuses, refuse to speak. Is that what Thailand wants for its leader?

[samurai]

Puea Thai is not a party you can take seriously,

Maybe for you but the electorate says otherwise

Not yet it doesn't.

Only manipulated polls hint at things, nothing more.

even old mark is taking these polls in except the ones with more then 50% undecided.

they cant all be manipulated by the "evil one"???

Democrat Party secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban said opinion-poll results were mostly artificial and manipulated by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to mislead public opinion.

[hyperdimension]

It will probably turn out that the whole PTP platform will have been run and organised by some overseas image consultants, and everyone will cry unfair.

I wonder if K Social Media Consulting LLC is behind much of the dirty public relations work:

About KSM

K Social Media Consulting LLC (KSM) is a social media, public relations, and issues advocacy company founded in New York, NY by James T. Kimer on Jan. 1, 2008, relocated to Washington DC in 2010. Services include media relations, social media campaigns, business and issues advocacy blog creation and maintenance, content development, and corporate communications initiatives. KSM is specialized in handling international political and business issues, with experience in Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Asia.

With several years experience running full-scale social media campaigns, KSM is one of a new breed of public relations agencies that look beyond traditional print and broadcast media to focus on establishing a strong presence in online communities. Our strategy is to achieve authenticity and credibility by contributing real value to the conversation; the goal is to avoid the tired and easily ignored vocabulary of marketing by bringing a transparent voice to connect you with the desired audience.

With a focus on high-quality, personal service and committed partnerships, KSM services a select group of clients, including the law firm Amsterdam & Peroff and its Founding Partner Robert Amsterdam. Our role is not just limited to online activities and coordination of press relations, but rather the contribution and innovation of ideas and strategies to help clients achieve their goals.

James Kimer formerly worked as a Senior Account Executive at the award-winning New York public relations agency LVM Group (2005-2007), and got his start in the industry at the Madrid, Spain office of global firm Fleishman-Hillard (2000-2003). Past clients have included Rolls-Royce, Lockheed Martin, 3M, and a number of major law firms. He has built and maintained successful blogs and social media campaigns on behalf of various clients since 2006.

James holds a Bachelor of Arts in psychology from Lewis & Clark College (Portland, OR) and a Joint Master of Arts in journalism and Latin American studies from New York University. A native of Minneapolis, MN, he is a published writer, active blogger, and fluent Spanish speaker.

The operations of K Social Media Consulting LLC are guided by the Code of Professional Standards for the practice of public relations as adopted by the Public Relations Society of America (PRSA).

Edited June 17, 2011 by hyperdimension