Six Booby Traps Waiting To Blow A Hole In Yingluck's Government

[hammered]

In another development, Plodprasop said a group of Pheu Thai MPs will on July 26 attend the birthday party of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in Bali, Indonesia.

He said the planned trip was private without linkage to the party.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/484210-pheu-thai-prodding-ec-to-endorse-red-shirts/

Rubbing it in.

On the other hand loads of MPs go to the birthday parties of Banharn, Newin, Sonthaya and a rake of other banned MPs. Papers dont report on it so much though

[craigt3365]

In another development, Plodprasop said a group of Pheu Thai MPs will on July 26 attend the birthday party of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in Bali, Indonesia.

He said the planned trip was private without linkage to the party.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/484210-pheu-thai-prodding-ec-to-endorse-red-shirts/

Rubbing it in.

On the other hand loads of MPs go to the birthday parties of Banharn, Newin, Sonthaya and a rake of other banned MPs. Papers dont report on it so much though

But these guys are just banned, not fugitives from the law. Right?

[Crushdepth]

Thaksin will be the thing that brings down this government...

And he will only have himself to blame, again.

[Mosha]

It's a birthday party. They won't be discussing politics. A pigs arse they will

[rixalex]

Yingluck is a very intelligent lady, who I believe has a ton of ability. She does not however, have any political experience at all. We are talking about a very wealthy, very confident and self assured person, who would have made her way in the world without her brother Taksin anyway.

I'm not disagreeing, but on exactly what grounds do you make these comments? I, like i imagine you, have not met the women. My opinion therefore at the moment is limited to three main things:

1) Her achievements in education

2) Her achievements in work

3) Her public speaking / appearances

Number one is reasonable but hardly dazzling. Number two is impossible really to gauge as all of her positions have been at her brother's companies. Perhaps she did a great job as AIS President. Perhaps she didn't. We'll never really know. Number three... well, this is very subjective, but in all the English interviews she has given, forgetting her obvious language difficulties, i have found her entire thought process extremely jumbled and she seems to rely on giving pre-prepared sound bites which quite often have little to do with the question being asked.

Anyway, just wondering from exactly what sources you have drawn the conclusions that you have about her?

[rubl]

The good news is that when k. Thaksin can no longer be involved in either government or ruling party, the Pheu Thai can more easily dismiss any of k. Thaksin's campaign and other promises.

[otherstuff1957]

I'm sure that there will be many meetings and daily phone calls between Thaksin and the new government. After all, you can't run a country without talking to people!

I don't think that there will be any consequences. The military is well aware that their efforts to run the country were basically a disaster and are pretty much content to try to influence things from behind the scenes. As long as PT doesn't do anything to threaten the military (like mess about with the chain of command) or meddle with other things that the military are concerned with, there probably won't be another coup. As for the courts, they will act upon any complaints in slow motion as they wait to see if Thaksin consolidates his power.

Hopefully, Thaksin's opponents will give PT 'enough rope to hang themselves'. If, against expectations, they run a competent and fairly honest government, they will be untouchable in the next election. If they screw up, another Democrat-led coalition will get another chance.

[gleeglee]

No i believe you are wrong, she won with a 15 seat majority she needs the smaller parties to consolidate, They are saying up to 50 MP will be red carded, This is why she tried to get to 300 MP

just in case they lose a lot to the red card system, So when people state it was an landslide it simply was not, 15 seats is not a large majority in any country.

[Payboy]

Six Booby Traps Waiting To Blow A Hole In Yingluck's Government

Booby, Blow & Hole - who's writing these soft porn headlines?

[hammered]

In another development, Plodprasop said a group of Pheu Thai MPs will on July 26 attend the birthday party of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in Bali, Indonesia.

He said the planned trip was private without linkage to the party.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/484210-pheu-thai-prodding-ec-to-endorse-red-shirts/

Rubbing it in.

On the other hand loads of MPs go to the birthday parties of Banharn, Newin, Sonthaya and a rake of other banned MPs. Papers dont report on it so much though

But these guys are just banned, not fugitives from the law. Right?

That's true but it is the banned politicians practicing politics stuff that can give rise to a ban, so in that respect they are equivalent. You cant get banned for mixing with fugitives from what I know. Then again enough are likley mixing with fugitive politicians from around central Thailand in the Poipet casinos

[rubl]

In another development, Plodprasop said a group of Pheu Thai MPs will on July 26 attend the birthday party of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in Bali, Indonesia.

He said the planned trip was private without linkage to the party.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/484210-pheu-thai-prodding-ec-to-endorse-red-shirts/

Those MPs on a private trip will pay for their own ticket I assume?

[KarenBravo]

15 seats is not a large majority in any country.

Doesn't that rather depend on how many total seats there are?

[newtronbom]

<br />

<br />Yingluck is a very intelligent lady, who I believe has a ton of ability. She does not however, have any political experience at all. We are talking about a very wealthy, very confident and self assured person, who would have made her way in the world without her brother Taksin anyway. <br />

<br />I'm not disagreeing, but on exactly what grounds do you make these comments? I, like i imagine you, have not met the women. My opinion therefore at the moment is limited to three main things:<br /><br />1) Her achievements in education<br />2) Her achievements in work<br />3) Her public speaking / appearances<br /><br />Number one is reasonable but hardly dazzling. Number two is impossible really to gauge as all of her positions have been at her brother's companies. Perhaps she did a great job as AIS President. Perhaps she didn't. We'll never really know. Number three... well, this is very subjective, but in all the English interviews she has given, forgetting her obvious language difficulties, i have found her entire thought process extremely jumbled and she seems to rely on giving pre-prepared sound bites which quite often have little to do with the question being asked.<br /><br />Anyway, just wondering from exactly what sources you have drawn the conclusions that you have about her?<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />

<br /><br /><br /><br />True I don't know her personally, nor can I find out anything about her achievements myself as it is all in Thai. How I came to my conclusions is like this. I live in a small to medium size Village(Moo Barn)and are for sure the "poorest" person living here. There are quite a few wealthy retired people here and some very wealthy company owners too. The general manager(who I won't name) of one of the larger and most prestigious hotels in Bangkok, who speaks perfect English lives here too. I could go on. It is from talking to people like these(I speak pretty fluent Thai) that I came to the conclusions I posted. Not many are in favor of her being in power either, so that could bias what I heard a little, though I think not. I am personally not in favor of her party winning either. The people I talked to are should know what they are talking about, nor would they have any reason to lie. I admit my comments are not infallible, but I think they are reasonable. Edited July 20, 2011 by newtronbom

[changraider]

There is a difference between having more than 50% of votes and having more than 50% of seats in the House of Representatives. With Pheu Thai it's the latter but not the former.

An interesting point about the number of overall votes: if memory serves of the electoral night, the majority of the provincial constituencies voted overwhelmingy in favour of PTP - in many cases over 90% (in the constituency where I live over 99%, despite "Democrat" attempts to buy votes with cash), whereas the winning margin in many of the BKK constituencies was much narrower, often just a few hundred votes. Therefore PTP's majority of seats in the house very substantially underestimates the much higher majority of actual votes cast for PTP nationwide. And this is not unusual, as a review of the previous general election results, which PTP (in its earlier form) won overwhelmingly, willl demonstrate. The "Democrats" have never come close to winning a general election in Thailand, despite the wishes of many posters on TV.

[ozziebloke]

seams to me that all the senior members and above have a hate on for the Pheu Thai Party and using any reason to put them down. Sounds a little bit like sore losers! How about letting them start governing and see how they go before tearing them down ???????

Edited July 20, 2011 by ozziebloke

[hammered]

seams to me that all the senior members and above ahve a hate on for the Pheu Thai Party and using any reason to put them down sounds a little bit like sore losers how about letting them start governing before and see how they go before tearing them down ???????

I agree with judging them on performance, after all the people have chosen them, and Ive been around here a few years;)

[rixalex]

True I don't know her personally, nor can I find out anything about her achievements myself as it is all in Thai. How I came to my conclusions is like this. I live in a small to medium size Village(Moo Barn)and are for sure the "poorest" person living here. There are quite a few wealthy retired people here and some very wealthy company owners too. The general manager(who I won't name) of one of the larger and most prestigious hotels in Bangkok, who speaks perfect English lives here too. I could go on. It is from talking to people like these(I speak pretty fluent Thai) that I came to the conclusions I posted. Not many are in favor of her being in power either, so that could bias what I heard a little, though I think not. I am personally not in favor of her party winning either. The people I talked to are should know what they are talking about, nor would they have any reason to lie. I admit my comments are not infallible, but I think they are reasonable.

I appreciate the answer but i don't think it tells us very much, not about Yingluck anyway, besides the fact that she has managed to make a favourable impression (intelligence wise) with some rich and powerful people you know.

[rixalex]

seams to me that all the senior members and above have a hate on for the Pheu Thai Party and using any reason to put them down. Sounds a little bit like sore losers! How about letting them start governing and see how they go before tearing them down ???????

In terms of the government, i agree it should be given its chance to prove itself, but in terms of the individuals involved, many of them are not new on the scene, they have been involved with politics before, they have their own history of good deeds, bad deeds, a history in some cases of corruption, criminality, abusing power, leading violent riots etc etc. Now perhaps if they had all had they days in court and either been found innocent or been found guilty and served their punishment, that would be one thing and your suggestion about giving them a chance valid.... but they haven't.

Until they have, "tearing them down" i believe is not merely a right but a duty, for all those who believe in rule of law and justice.

[animatic]

Thaksin will be the thing that brings down this government...

And he will only have himself to blame, again.

Actually he will blame his political enemies,

he is never to blame for anything he is charged

with they are just evil to not let him do as he wishes.

[ozziebloke]

seams to me that all the senior members and above have a hate on for the Pheu Thai Party and using any reason to put them down. Sounds a little bit like sore losers! How about letting them start governing and see how they go before tearing them down ???????

In terms of the government, i agree it should be given its chance to prove itself, but in terms of the individuals involved, many of them are not new on the scene, they have been involved with politics before, they have their own history of good deeds, bad deeds, a history in some cases of corruption, criminality, abusing power, leading violent riots etc etc. Now perhaps if they had all had they days in court and either been found innocent or been found guilty and served their punishment, that would be one thing and your suggestion about giving them a chance valid.... but they haven't.

Until they have, "tearing them down" i believe is not merely a right but a duty, for all those who believe in rule of law and justice.

I understand your reasoning and i have seen exactly the same in other major parties but for me i would like to see how they get started and what they will try to impliment in the way policies that will improve the economy of Thailand.

[craigt3365]

That's true but it is the banned politicians practicing politics stuff that can give rise to a ban, so in that respect they are equivalent. You cant get banned for mixing with fugitives from what I know. Then again enough are likley mixing with fugitive politicians from around central Thailand in the Poipet casinos

this is from the article. I'm no legal expert, but I'm guessing there's something to this statement. It will be real interesting to see how this transpires!

The Thaksin big bang. This is last but not least. Contacts with the man when Pheu Thai was in opposition were one thing, but flying to see him, having him phone in, or letting him publicly dispense advice to the government from now on could trigger a catastrophe.

Yingluck and many Pheu Thai members will be "state officials" in a few days and Thaksin remains a fugitive convict. Every law requires her to find his whereabouts or seek his arrest, and her opponents will take full advantage of that. They will keep their radar on around the clock, not for whether she will fulfil that obligation, but for whether she or other government officials are keeping in contact with him.

Fair or unfair, this is potentially a nuke that could blow the new government away. All it'll take to detonate is a wayward Cabinet member found in Dubai or Brunei or a loose-tongued justice minister who announces "I talked to him last night."

Severity rating: 10

[hyperdimension]

the majority of the provincial constituencies voted overwhelmingy in favour of PTP - in many cases over 90% (in the constituency where I live over 99%, despite "Democrat" attempts to buy votes with cash), whereas the winning margin in many of the BKK constituencies was much narrower, often just a few hundred votes. Therefore PTP's majority of seats in the house very substantially underestimates the much higher majority of actual votes cast for PTP nationwide.

Yes, some constituencies voted overwhelmingly in favor of Pheu Thai, but if you average it all out by counting votes for parties without considering constituencies, Pheu Thai did not get a majority of votes. Majority means greater than 50%. I was simply highlighting tomahawk's incorrect statement:

The majority voted for her and therefore are obviously pro-Thaksin and would love it if he returned to Thailand.

... which is also technically incorrect in two other ways.

[rixalex]

I understand your reasoning and i have seen exactly the same in other major parties but for me i would like to see how they get started and what they will try to impliment in the way policies that will improve the economy of Thailand.

As i say, i agree about giving the government its chance, but where I don't agree is: just because PT won the vote, that means all those involved in the win have had their slate wiped clean and all past "misdeeds" must be forgotten and anyone mentioning them should be told to button it and stop being sore losers.

[hellodolly]

The majority voted for her

That is incorrect. Less than 50% of the votes were for Pheu Thai.

Could you let us know where you're getting yr figures from: the official figures are - Pheu Thai won 265 seats out of 500 - a clear majority; I haven't seen any published figures for overall votes, but in most of the provinces the PT vote was overwhelming - 90% plus, whereas in BKK the winning margin was much lower - only a few hundred seats in many constituencies.

and therefore are obviously pro-Thaksin and would love it if he returned to Thailand.

You are incorrectly assuming that every vote for Pheu Thai was a vote for Thaksin. I think many of the votes were for their attractive (but too-good-to-be-true) promises.

I should imagine that many Thais were also voting on principle gainst a government installed without the will of the people following a military coup.

You are confused they got a little bit over half the seats.

That does not mean that the population voted 100% for them in the areas where they won.

I might add that even you would think there was some thing wrong with that kind of a result if it happened.

In some of the areas they won they got barley 50% in some not even that munch.

It would be nice to see what the break down is on the percentage of votes each party got.:jap:

[hellodolly]

<br>

<br>

<br>The majority voted for her<br>

<br>That is incorrect. Less than 50% of the votes were for Pheu Thai.<br><br><br>

<br> and therefore are obviously pro-Thaksin and would love it if  he returned to Thailand.<br>

<br>You are incorrectly assuming that every vote for Pheu Thai was a vote for Thaksin. I think many of the votes were for their attractive (but too-good-to-be-true) promises.<br>

<br><br>I would think that in a political sense, majority would refer to the party that won <font face="Arial"><font size="2">by virtue of its larger representation and/or electoral strength. Which in both cases here would be PTP.</font></font><br><br><br><font face="sans-serif"><b>Summary of the 3 July 2011 House of Representatives of Thailand <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thailand" class="bbc_url" title="External link" rel="nofollow external">Thai</a> <b>general election results</b></b></font><br><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_general_election,_2011" class="bbc_url" title="External link" rel="nofollow external">http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2011</a><br>

<br> 

The Pt got 53% of the seats with 48% of the vote.

Edited July 20, 2011 by hellodolly

[hellodolly]

That's true but it is the banned politicians practicing politics stuff that can give rise to a ban, so in that respect they are equivalent. You cant get banned for mixing with fugitives from what I know. Then again enough are likley mixing with fugitive politicians from around central Thailand in the Poipet casinos

this is from the article. I'm no legal expert, but I'm guessing there's something to this statement. It will be real interesting to see how this transpires!

The Thaksin big bang. This is last but not least. Contacts with the man when Pheu Thai was in opposition were one thing, but flying to see him, having him phone in, or letting him publicly dispense advice to the government from now on could trigger a catastrophe.

Yingluck and many Pheu Thai members will be "state officials" in a few days and Thaksin remains a fugitive convict. Every law requires her to find his whereabouts or seek his arrest, and her opponents will take full advantage of that. They will keep their radar on around the clock, not for whether she will fulfil that obligation, but for whether she or other government officials are keeping in contact with him.

Fair or unfair, this is potentially a nuke that could blow the new government away. All it'll take to detonate is a wayward Cabinet member found in Dubai or Brunei or a loose-tongued justice minister who announces "I talked to him last night."

Severity rating: 10

Particularly when you consider the PT got less than half the votes and not all of their votes were for Thaksin. All though lack of education is a big problem here in Thailand not every one is that uneducated. The support for Thaksin will dry up as the 300 baht a day raise disappears and no more money comes in to get there support for him. The man's ego has gotten to the point where he thinks he can bite the hand that feeds him with no repercussions.

He will soon learn that unless he changes his ways Yingluck will not be able to support him. She will discover that the ball is in her court and decisions from her will be expected she can no longer run home to big brother. (or clone)

Actually she can not be his clone she is to naive.

[exbelg]

so how long till the NEXT election after this one will fail

[Ricardo]

Or she could do like the democrats did and rewrite the constitution, let off the criminals that carried out the coup and rewrite the laws to serve their own selfish interests.

Sorry to correct you, but the new constitution & amnesty for the coup-leaders was in 2007, a long time before the Democrat-led coalition-government of former-PM Abhisit came to power in December-2008.

Thaksin's idea of "reconciliation" clearly does also include to "let off the criminals who carried out the coup", by the way, so PM-elect Ms Yingluck would only be following her brother's thoughts, were she to do as you suggest. Is he similarly proposing that to serve his selfish interests, do you think ?

An interesting point about the number of overall votes: if memory serves of the electoral night, the majority of the provincial constituencies voted overwhelmingy in favour of PTP - in many cases over 90% (in the constituency where I live over 99%, despite "Democrat" attempts to buy votes with cash), whereas the winning margin in many of the BKK constituencies was much narrower, often just a few hundred votes. Therefore PTP's majority of seats in the house very substantially underestimates the much higher majority of actual votes cast for PTP nationwide. And this is not unusual, as a review of the previous general election results, which PTP (in its earlier form) won overwhelmingly, willl demonstrate. The "Democrats" have never come close to winning a general election in Thailand, despite the wishes of many posters on TV.

"the majority of the provincial constituencies voted overwhelmingly in favour of PTP"

With respect, I think you're forgetting about the South of the country, where very many provincial constituencies voted equally-clearly for the Democrats, hence the untruth of the oft-repeated claim (by some posters) that 'the poor country people all support Thaksin', they do but only in certain regions.

"PTP's majority of seats in the house very substantially underestimates the much higher majority of actual votes cast for PTP nationwide"

Happily we can settle this one by looking at the constituency-vote, where PTP got 204 seats out of 375 available, or 54.4% and then comparing that with the proportional (one-man one-vote) result where PTP got 48.41% resulting in them gaining 61 party-list votes. Figures are the latest available on Wikipedia, and are of course subject to the E.C.'s confirmation of the results, and any red/yellow-cards they may decide to hand out.

Unless you feel 48.4% is greater-than 54.4%, then your statement above is simply wrong, as I'm sure you'll now acknowledge.

[sillybilly]

There used to be talk abut mixing with a convicted felon and if it is classed as breaking the law. If she was to continue talking with her brother would she be seen as breaking the law?

Who has the power to bring charges against her and who is it that is in charge of trying to bring her brother back??

If it is the governments job then is there anybody that can asked her publicly if she is going to do so?

Of course I don`t think she would but who can make her accountable if she doesn`t??

[rubl]

There used to be talk abut mixing with a convicted felon and if it is classed as breaking the law. If she was to continue talking with her brother would she be seen as breaking the law?

Who has the power to bring charges against her and who is it that is in charge of trying to bring her brother back??

If it is the governments job then is there anybody that can asked her publicly if she is going to do so?

Of course I don`t think she would but who can make her accountable if she doesn`t??

May I suggest you read the OP again. It answers most of your questions I think