In free markets, where prices are allowed to fluctuate according to supply and demand, there is something like the Hog-Cycle.

- Hog prices are low, little or no profit can be made with hogs = So folks are getting out of the hog-business. This will have the effect, that hog prices will recover. After about 1 1/2 years, hog prices will be "high" again, with the result, that everyone including his uncle will be back in the hog business again. Due to the ensuing oversupply, hog prices are headed for the cellar again. And the game starts anew.

Ergo: Anticyclical behaviour on the side of the hog producer is a must. And: The so called "Hog-Corn Ratio" (when the underlying main feed is corn) should be observed at all times. The H/C Ratio is a rough measuring stick as far as the profitability of raising hogs is concerned. (Can be Googled, I am sure).

As I said, this applies for "free markets" only. I don't kwow if all of this is applicable to Thailand.

Cheers.

Swissie, As I see it you are correct, it applies to Thailand as much as elsewhere. Feast or famine, muck or money. The market here is free. Producers are free to follow the suggestions of corporate agriculture.

In free markets, where prices are allowed to fluctuate according to supply and demand, there is something like the Hog-Cycle.

- Hog prices are low, little or no profit can be made with hogs = So folks are getting out of the hog-business. This will have the effect, that hog prices will recover. After about 1 1/2 years, hog prices will be "high" again, with the result, that everyone including his uncle will be back in the hog business again. Due to the ensuing oversupply, hog prices are headed for the cellar again. And the game starts anew.

Ergo: Anticyclical behaviour on the side of the hog producer is a must. And: The so called "Hog-Corn Ratio" (when the underlying main feed is corn) should be observed at all times. The H/C Ratio is a rough measuring stick as far as the profitability of raising hogs is concerned. (Can be Googled, I am sure).

As I said, this applies for "free markets" only. I don't kwow if all of this is applicable to Thailand.

Cheers.

Swissie, As I see it you are correct, it applies to Thailand as much as elsewhere. Feast or famine, muck or money. The market here is free. Producers are free to follow the suggestions of corporate agriculture.

I totally agreed, I'm laying and wait for that exact moment when the price momentum bound back... at the mean time, I'll just do what i always do, harvesting fishes.