Thailand In Denial Of Terrorist Danger

[george]

Thailand: In denial of danger

An attack on an army base has undermined Thailand's strenuous claims that it has no problem with terrorism. John Aglionby explains

It has taken an audacious attack on an army base, including the murder of four soldiers - two of whom had their throats slit - the theft of more than 300 weapons and the torching of 21 schools as a diversionary tactic to finally expose the Thai prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, as a ruler with no clothes.

Prior to the January 4 raid, on a base in the Muslim-dominated southern Narathiwat province, the populist telecoms tycoon turned politician had repeatedly told the world that his country did not have a problem with terrorism, separatism, militant Islamism or any of the other issues plaguing his neighbours.

Protecting the nation's image, and the revenue brought in by the 10 million tourists that visit every year, seemed more important than tackling thorny problems.

Mr Thaksin's denial came despite the fact that the region's most senior terrorist, Hambali, had been arrested in Thailand last August. At least one of the key Bali bombing planning meetings was held in Thailand, and many of the dozens of terrorist suspects arrested round the region since the Spetember 11 2001 attacks claimed to have used the country as a base.

Moreover, and perhaps most importantly, there has been simmering Muslim separatist sentiment in the predominantly Muslim southern provinces of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat for at least the last century, and arguably for almost 500 years.

De facto martial law has been in effect in many districts of the south for a decade. More than 20,000 militants in these provinces, mostly grouped under the umbrella of the Pattani United Liberation Organisation, fought for secession in the 70s and 80s, dispersing after the government granted an amnesty in the early 80s.

It is unclear who was responsible for the recent raid. A court in Narathiwat this week issued arrest warrants for four alleged Muslim militants whom police believe orchestrated it. Awae Kaleh, Masae Useng, Karim Karubang and Waeli Copter Waji face charges of treason, murder, arson and robbery.

They allegedly have ties to, or are members of, various fairly obscure groups such as the Malay-named Gerakan Mujahideen Islam Pattani (GMIP - the Pattani Islamic Mujahideen Movement), that could be linked to Jemaah Islamiyah, which is regarded as the south-east Asian arm of al-Qaida.

This obfuscation and ambiguity over the precise nature of the four's involvement, and myriad other possible suspects, extends to the perpetrators' motivation. That has been variously claimed to be religion, social and economic resentment, criminality and international terrorism, by both officials and people submitting opinions to internet chat rooms.

Critics say that this further exposes the extent to which Bangkok has lost the pulse of the south where, in the four aforementioned states, 80% of the population, but only 10% of the officials, are Muslim. According to one recent survey, more than one third of six to 24-year-olds have not completed their primary education.

As a result, the government's reaction has been rather haphazard. It initially responded very much with the stick, and is only just starting to think about the carrot.

In addition to martial law being declared, thousands of troops and police have been mobilised, private Islamist schools - many of which serve the poorest in society - are being investigated for suspected training of Islamic militants, and joint border patrols with the Malaysian security forces have been initiated for the first time in 30 years.

Southern community leaders are only getting the chance to discuss the issue with senior ministers this weekend.

The deputy prime minister, General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, will meet Muslim leaders from the three most tense provinces on Saturday, a day after Mr Thaksin has found the time to meet his Malaysian counterpart, Abdullah Badawi.

Many newspaper columnists believe that this failure to prioritise engagement at grassroots level could well prolong the disquiet-cum-unrest for decades, if not longer.

Writing in the Nation this week, the former foreign minister, Surin Pitsuwan, said that, in addressing the issue of Islamist extremism in the south, "it is better to aim at long-term regional stability and prosperity rather than a daily dose of publicity for short-term political gain.

"We must realise that every one of our neighbours has its own domestic constraints and sensitivities. Failure to recognise that would lead to complicating the issue further for all of us."

With elections due within the next year, Mr Thaksin does not have an awful lot of time on his side if he wants to protect his domestic reputation and his country's international one.

He is beginning to get dressed at last, but the make-up of his final wardrobe remains uncertain.

--Agencies: 2004-01-18

[Nam Kao]

I am surprised they have not started kidnapping westerners yet

[megashox]

This is sounding more and more like (ex) Iraqi Information Minister Muhammed Saeed al-Sahaf.

There are no more drug pushers in Thailand! (Our initial assessment is that they are all dead!)

There are no terrorists in Thailand! (Be assured Baghdad is safe!)

It was the work of bandits! (Those infidels!)

There is no bird flu! (We shall slaughter them all!)