EMPLOYMENT

Thousands of jobs at risk as firms stay closed

Petchanet Pratruangkrai

The Nation

Some flood-affected companies have not reopened, as others brace for wage hike

BANGKOK: -- About 164,500 employees of flood-affected enterprises are at risk of losing their jobs this year as 284 firms have not yet reopened after last year's inundation, while the upcoming increase in the daily minimum wage could aggravate the situation, according to a report by the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB).

Industries where there is a high possibility of downsizing are automobile manufacturing, office machinery, electronics, electronic appliances, textiles and garments, machinery, television and radio appliances, rubber, chemical products, plastics, household equipment and petrochemical goods.

Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, head of the state think-tank, yesterday said the authorities must closely monitor the employment situation during the remainder of the current quarter, as many enterprises could adjust their operations in preparation for the 39.5-per-cent rise in the minimum wage in April.

The Labour Ministry's project to relieve the impact on workers affected by the flooding crisis ends this month, which could lead to more unemployment in following months, he said.

However, Arkhom still believes overall unemployment will not rise this year thanks to expected positive economic growth, besides which many sectors still face labour shortages.

"We estimate that the unemployment rate by the end of this year will not increase from last year, although there will be many challenging factors to monitor and some disguised unemployment may be seen," the NESDB chief said.

Arkhom said the increase in the minimum wage to Bt300 per day, starting in seven provinces, would encourage businesses of all sizes to increase their efficiency and adopt new technology.

Some enterprises may choose to terminate the employment of some workers as a last resort, but most would strive to boost their capability and operations to maintain their workforce, he added.

To help assure employment levels are maintained, Arkhom said the government should have training projects to support the development of skilled labour, and arrange matching between employers and their potential employees.

The NESDB reported that unemployment last year had grown by 1.1 per cent, while the number of unemployed was about 200,000, or 0.7 per cent of the potential workforce.

Real labour income in the fourth quarter improved by 3.2 per cent, and average annual incomes were up by 2.8 per cent, representing slow growth from 2010.

Suwannee Khamman, deputy secretary-general of the NESDB, said the labour market in general was still tight.

However, when classified by the number of working hours by sector, there are a large number of economically inactive workers, especially among unskilled labourers in agricultural industries, she said, adding that this suggests educational development is needed to produce workers in fields demanded by the labour market.

The report also showed that Thailand faced serious social problems last year due to an increase in the level of inappropriate material available online, especially among children and youth.

It also said the number of young Thai mothers had continued to rise, with the highest growth rate in Asia. The birth rate among females below 20 years of age rose from 13.55 per cent in 2009 to 13.76 per cent in 2010.

Meanwhile, the number of criminal cases increased last year, particularly for serious drug offences, with drug-related arrests increasing 30 per cent from 2010.

Thais aged 15 years and over were reported to have an alcohol-consumption rate nine times the world average, and young people aged 15 to 24 need to be closely monitored, the report said.

-- The Nation 2012-02-28

Arkhom said the increase in the minimum wage to Bt300 per day, starting in seven provinces, would encourage businesses of all sizes to increase their efficiency and adopt new technology.

... and employ less staff.

About 164,500 employees of flood-affected enterprises are at risk of losing their jobs this year as 284 firms have not yet reopened after last year's inundation, while the upcoming increase in the daily minimum wage could aggravate the situation

Hail red economy! Hail reconsiliation! We'll feed all of those jobless ppl by the very fresh, very tasty amended Constitution's pages!

NESDB: Most factories have recovered from flood

BANGKOK, 28 February 2012 (NNT) – Having recovered from the flood, most factories have resumed operations, except for the electronics and automotive groups which are awaiting new machinery installments.

National Economic and Social Development Board Secretary-General Arkom Termpitayapaisit disclosed that the Strategic Committee for Reconstruction and Future Development (SCRF) meeting, which focused on the progress of the industrial sector's recovery, found that 44% of the factories situated within industrial estates have begun manufacturing, whereas 78% of those outside industrial estates have also undergone full recovery. Most factories which still remain inactive belong to the electronics and automotive parts group as new machinery has yet to be installed.

Regarding the 4 billion-baht construction of floodwalls around industrial estates, the Ministry of Finance is set to propose that the cabinet provide funding for two-thirds of the total budget.

Additionally, Energy for Environment Director Seri Supharathit has forecast that the flood situation in 2012 will not be as severe as last year since there will be a small amount of rain until the end of the year. However, this will instead cause drought in the country. Consequently, he is prepared to discuss with the Strategic Committee for Water Resources Management (SCWRM) on plans to release water from the nation's main dams to assist farmers and prepare for possible drought.

-- NNT 2012-02-28

The number is way low 'cause they are only thinking about the bigger business. There is no telling how many of the little mom & pop places around here have not reopened - hairdressers, machine shops, and the like

Additionally, Energy for Environment Director Seri Supharathit has forecast that the flood situation in 2012 will not be as severe as last year since there will be a small amount of rain until the end of the year.

Wasn't someone predicting, just yesterday, a number of storms to hit Thailand this year?

"However, Arkhom still believes overall unemployment will not rise this year thanks to expected positive economic growth, besides which many sectors still face labour shortages"

Hmmmm I wonder which sectors besides farming those could be and where the 'positive economic growth' will be coming from in the face of declining global demand/debt saturation.

Arkhom said the increase in the minimum wage to Bt300 per day, starting in seven provinces, would encourage businesses of all sizes to increase their efficiency and adopt new technology.

... and employ less staff.

That's a good thing because the staff can then do more productive work. That's how rich countries became rich, not by giving everyone mundane manual work to do.

"However, Arkhom still believes overall unemployment will not rise this year thanks to expected positive economic growth, besides which many sectors still face labour shortages"

Hmmmm I wonder which sectors besides farming those could be and where the 'positive economic growth' will be coming from in the face of declining global demand/debt saturation.

Global demand is growing, not declining. Global GDP is expected to rise this year. So areas aren't doing as well (e.g. Europe), but even those will only have a minor decline, if any. So get your facts straight. Thailand's economy is certain to grow this year. Growth will come from many areas. I would explain to you but I doubt you'd understand, as you seem to be from the thai visa school of economics. i.e. assume everything is bad and getting worse, even when there is evidence to the contrary.

Additionally, Energy for Environment Director Seri Supharathit has forecast that the flood situation in 2012 will not be as severe as last year since there will be a small amount of rain until the end of the year.

Wasn't someone predicting, just yesterday, a number of storms to hit Thailand this year?

Storms hit Thailand every year, so nothing new there. Just because there are storms doesn't mean there'll be major flooding.

"The report also showed that Thailand faced serious social problems last year due to an increase in the level of inappropriate material available online, especially among children and youth."

It'd be great if the public could see that report. I'd love to know how they quantify and measure these things. This sure sounds like the classic xenophobic drum beating from Thai elites who are terrified of the consequences of a more informed populace (between Thaksin and Tunisia, it must feel like the sky could fall at any moment). They might want to explore how the internet has improved the Thai economy too, since this report is about economics. What exactly is the definition of "inappropriate material"?

Its a wake call for both the government and the affected firms, now we wait to see if Thai logic is applied. For Thais a little "thinking outside the box" is required, foreign investors might look for new pastures in new lands, lands that dont flood and costs are less.

I am also planning to cut back about 20% and reduce commission by 20% to cope with this wage hike. I am sure there are more business like mine

Think Tank?? Thinking outside the box??? Not in a million years. Young persons consuming alcohol 9X the world ave? Good luck Thailand.

"However, Arkhom still believes overall unemployment will not rise this year thanks to expected positive economic growth, besides which many sectors still face labour shortages"

Hmmmm I wonder which sectors besides farming those could be and where the 'positive economic growth' will be coming from in the face of declining global demand/debt saturation.

Global demand is growing, not declining. Global GDP is expected to rise this year. So areas aren't doing as well (e.g. Europe), but even those will only have a minor decline, if any. So get your facts straight. Thailand's economy is certain to grow this year. Growth will come from many areas. I would explain to you but I doubt you'd understand, as you seem to be from the thai visa school of economics. i.e. assume everything is bad and getting worse, even when there is evidence to the contrary.

Really, What areas of global demand is growing apart from debt?

Advances in the faster-growing emerging nations are being constrained by both the trade shocks rippling around the world and by prior tightening moves to contain domestic inflationary pressures. This is mostnotable in the Asia-Pacific region where growth forecasts for China, South Korea, and Australia have moved to a lower trajectory.

India too has downshifted out of high gear, though this largely reflects past tightening moves to contain domestically generated inflationary pressures. A more moderate pace of rebuilding

in Japan has also contributed to the reduced growth momentum internationally.

http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/forecast.pdf

A recovery in advanced economies will be more than offset by a gradual slowdown in emerging ones as they mature, with the net result that global growth will slow. But the biggest risk ahead for the global economy is not this slower overall growth in output but a slowdown in average output per capita, which will determine how fast living standards can be supported and raised. http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm

The economic forecast for 2012 is somewhat positive, but lukewarm, .....Yet, on the downside, remains the prediction that consumer spending is expected to be slow. It's forecast to reach a 2.3 percent increase this year: that compares with 2.1 percent last year. However, historically speaking the average comes in at 2.8 percent, according to The Journal of Commerce.

Most economists are preoicting a modest to little growth in world GDP. In SEA this growth could be offset by increases in the cost of crude oil, finance and labour. They also agree that there will be a decrease in overall living standards.

".....this suggests educational development is needed to produce workers in fields demanded by the labour market."

As the economy develops and wages rise, the educational level and competency of workers needs to rise. If they are going to price themselves out of the factory jobs, then they need to position themselves inside the service sector.

Additionally, Energy for Environment Director Seri Supharathit has forecast that the flood situation in 2012 will not be as severe as last year since there will be a small amount of rain until the end of the year.

Wasn't someone predicting, just yesterday, a number of storms to hit Thailand this year?

Storms hit Thailand every year, so nothing new there. Just because there are storms doesn't mean there'll be major flooding.

Except that he's suggesting that there won't be storms.

However, when classified by the number of working hours by sector, there are a large number of economically inactive workers,...

In English "economically inactive workers" means people who gave up looking for work and they are not counted against the unemployment rate.

I think these numbers can be quadrupled safely.

I am also planning to cut back about 20% and reduce commission by 20% to cope with this wage hike. I am sure there are more business like mine

I am planning to reduce a little, I need my people work more efficient. Being cynical: we have so much internal bureaucratically work that we don't have time to take care of the customer or even produce something

The last years average salaries haven risen, I can't have some useless people sitting around anymore.

Hail red economy!....We'll feed all of those jobless ppl by the very fresh, very tasty amended Constitution's pages!

Wow, it only took three posts to turn in into a Red Shirt political hot potato! Some folks really have tunnel vision.

Couldn't they be employed digging this ditch around Bangkok then? Certainly need numbers bigger than even this to get it finished before the rains

Couldn't they be employed digging this ditch around Bangkok then? Certainly need numbers bigger than even this to get it finished before the rains

What do you think this is, China?

yeah, i am still waiting for nestle to restart the production of my favorite ice coffee

maybe thailand can do as other RED nations in europe... increase the bureaucrazy, paperwork,.... more people working there = less efficient, but less people out of job

Edited February 28, 201214 yr by belg

Additionally, Energy for Environment Director Seri Supharathit has forecast that the flood situation in 2012 will not be as severe as last year since there will be a small amount of rain until the end of the year.

Wasn't someone predicting, just yesterday, a number of storms to hit Thailand this year?

Perhaps today they used different fortune teller...?

Arkhom said the increase in the minimum wage to Bt300 per day, starting in seven provinces, would encourage businesses of all sizes to increase their efficiency and adopt new technology.

... and employ less staff.

Yes this government has inadvertently created a double-whammy moment. I wonder just how many Pheu Thai voters regret putting them in now!!! IMHO, Probably not too many as they are rather thick and and such 'blind faith followers' of this abject government that they probably have'nt noticed whats happening!!.

Hail red economy!....We'll feed all of those jobless ppl by the very fresh, very tasty amended Constitution's pages!

Wow, it only took three posts to turn in into a Red Shirt political hot potato! Some folks really have tunnel vision.

Well,it weren't the democrats who announce that everyone should get a salary hike of close to 50% overnight,was it?

"BANGKOK: -- About 164,500 employees of flood-affected enterprises are at risk of losing their jobs this year as 284 firms have not yet reopened after last year's inundation, while the upcoming increase in the daily minimum wage could aggravate the situation, according to a report by the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB).

Industries where there is a high possibility of downsizing are automobile manufacturing, office machinery, electronics, electronic appliances, textiles and garments, machinery, television and radio appliances, rubber, chemical products, plastics, household equipment and petrochemical goods."

Where does this guy get his info from, must dream it or guess, try driving around the big seven industrial estates that were flooded and he will see less than 10% are just starting to recover let alone production at 100%. Thailand is two years away from even beginning to recover and it will never reach 100% as many companies are 'relocating' to other countries. Wake up Thailand the glory days are over.

"BANGKOK: -- About 164,500 employees of flood-affected enterprises are at risk of losing their jobs this year as 284 firms have not yet reopened after last year's inundation, while the upcoming increase in the daily minimum wage could aggravate the situation, according to a report by the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB).

Industries where there is a high possibility of downsizing are automobile manufacturing, office machinery, electronics, electronic appliances, textiles and garments, machinery, television and radio appliances, rubber, chemical products, plastics, household equipment and petrochemical goods."

Where does this guy get his info from, must dream it or guess, try driving around the big seven industrial estates that were flooded and he will see less than 10% are just starting to recover let alone production at 100%. Thailand is two years away from even beginning to recover and it will never reach 100% as many companies are 'relocating' to other countries. Wake up Thailand the glory days are over.

Sssth,Miracle Thailand.

I would think the inapropriate content of the thai soaps and music videos would outweigh internet content considering Thai television seems to be way more accessible to many teens (although this should soon be remied/worsened by the free tablet programme) quite how this affects the unemployment figures due to the affects of the flooding is baffling, but then again maybe the internet is perceived here as yet another unwelcome foreign intrusion disrupting Thainess.