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Analysis: Beginning Of The End Of Thaksin?


george

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As a Thai, and not a pro-Thaksin supporter (didn't even vote), I do feel Thaksin is indeed trying. Yes, he's neck deep in the corruption trough like every other administration since 1950 (and no, having a few people in any administration who happened to not be corrupt by no means made that administration corruption free, either in total amounts or principle... ala Chuan, others...), but the poor have never had opportunities like the one's given to them by the Thaksin administration. Yes, understandably they have failed at paying back loans, but hello, they are from a hundred plus generations of poor folks, it's not like you can expect a miracle transformation from 'in the fields' work ethic to business owners in a few years.

:o

Yes, and exactly because they are from "hundred plus generations of poor folks" enabling them to take advantage of huge loans is the exact opposite of giving them opportunities.

If Thaksin would have listened to people with expertise (and there are many of them in Thailand) - he would have implemented well researched agricultural programs exactly tailored for those underpriviledged people. And he would have enforced existing laws, especially concerning the sor por kor 401 issue, not just enabled them to take out loans on their meagre holdings.

What he has achieved is pushing the people he claimed to help into huge debts. He initiated large scale agricultural scemes that sound nice on paper, but are of benefit only to the exporters (if at all) and not the peasant farmers.

I personally could not care less about the shin corp sale, as long as he would have fullfilled his ambitious promises towards the poor. Which he didn't - he pushed them even further into poverty.

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PM requests audience with HM the King

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has requested for a meeting with HM the King, intelligence sources said.

The request comes two days before a mass anti-Thaksin rally which government officials believe will be attended by more than 100,000 people and worry could lead to violence.

Thaksin on Thursday met with Privy Council's chairman, Prem Tinsulanond, reportedly seeking advice on the political crisis.

The sources said that schedule for Thaksin has not yet been fixed.

The Nation

I'm scared to hold my breath. Whispers in ears and all that?

"Time to say goodbye"

"The party's over"

"Please forgive me"

"Well alright"

"It's now or never"

"Let the good times roll"

Edited by ratcatcher
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He just met Prem, now the King himself. The man is clutching the last straws.

It's interesting how he replied to reporters asking about the meeting with Prem:

''It was a talk between phu-yai [seniors]. You don't have to know.''

:D I would think that the nation would need to know. :o

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most of my friends are foreigners, but I do have some thai friends. but you are right, I don't discuss politics with my thai friends.

I see your situation somewhat. and I can sympathize with you.

being poor for generations... how can you improve your situation??

has anyone looked for oil here yet?

maybe there is oil in the south, and nobody knows it yet except malaysia?

but seriously, I love thailand, and like living here. but if a coup occurs, I don't know. I think many foreigners feel this way too.

I think foreign investment is one of your best options to improving the situation here. but you can't get that without a stable political environment.

..the money is coming in now. so, don't screw it up.

if you do, it may take at least another 10 years for you to get the confidence of the world to come in again. look at burma, laos, and cambodia.

dude, i agree with you completely and i commend you for your courage and honesty in this very one-sided thread. many countries in the region are trying desperately to reposition their economies right now with china and india rising. thailand has done a great job maintaining the relevance of key industries and even attracting FDI growth. we are just barely recovering from the financial crisis these past 3 years, we cannot withstand plunging into self inflicted political turmoil at this time. the economic and social fall-out could be worse than the status quo.

i love thailand more than i hate thaksin, and to me, progress for the nation at this time is more important than changing its prime minister. there is very little appreciation here for the value of stability and the premium it places on an entire country's progress. sometimes democracy comes at a price, and this price has come in the form of thaksin. why can't we just recognise that and vote Democrats or Chart Thai or whoever in 2008?

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There would be very little progress with Taksin in charge. The money and ideas are running out. He can't provide giveaways forever.

Thailand needs to strengthen its institutions, the government, the bureacracy, the judiciary, the senate, and the media before trying to progress any farther.

Judging by the CTX show it's really scary to think what they will do with their new mega projects worth ten times more than the whole airport.

TRT undermines the whole idea of free market competition both with its socialist schemes and with big business in the government chocking any competition and looking after themselves only.

Yes, corruption has always been here but the Thai way of managing it was to reinvest, and spread opportunities around, more or less fairly. TRT doesn't leave any room for anyone else and seems to want the country to itself forever, without sharing. And, of course, Taksin himself sold off to Singapore - what kind of patriot he is?

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In my Moo Ban the locals are talking about a Thai news channel that has said he is going to dissolve parliament and seek re election.

He has been filmed quoting that if the people give him another chance he will promise to take care of the poor.

He will not do any more business deals that will effect the country and will work solely for the Thai people and especially the poor.

He guarantees all the poor will be taken care of and all there bad debts taken care of and will be wiped out.

When he is voted back in this time it will be a different parliament with a new objective and that no one will be able to complain after he is relelected should they not like what he does.

I didn,t know he had officially resigned yet so think the last sentence has been taken out of context in some way but then again maybe they know more than we do, being Thai.

On the last point one has to agree that if they do re-elect him then they deserve whatever he does and will loose there one and only chance to get rid of him and really make the changes they surely deserve.

The local Pu yai where clapping him and cheering, my wife says and telling all within earshot that they must vote for him again and they will be rewarded for supporting him.?????????????????????????????

OH! OH! Not again.....

I would only hope that by some miracle they have truly seen the error of his ways and all his self rewarding schemes and are made to understand this at last by honest powers where ever they live.

As for the bribes on offer he has a very big war chest and can / will be able to buy many of the votes in the rural areas.

My hope is that he resigns and leaves the government intact then at least there is a chance to see it all through.

Otherwise it,s back to square one.

Only then will the changes everyone wants be implemented/started and real progress come out of this.

Otherwise after witnessing the struggles of the last 13 years things will continue to go on a downward spiral for the under privilidged for many more years to come.

In my humble opinion anyway.

marshbags :o:D:D

Edited by marshbags
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sometimes democracy comes at a price, and this price has come in the form of thaksin. why can't we just recognise that and vote Democrats or Chart Thai or whoever in 2008?

I'd find that much easier to accept if Thaksin just said "Let me finish my second term, and then I'll hand power over to a successor." Early on in his first term, he indicated that he only wanted to serve two terms. But as time went on, he started shifting the goalposts. He then said "if there still problems after two terms, then..." then it was boasting that TRT would hold power for 20 years. Then, it was something like "i will stay on until the poverty problem is solved" - which I take to mean forever, since its impossible even for rich countries to completely eliminate poverty. Even with all his recent troubles, he refused to rule out a third term in an interview with AFP. He's made clear on many occasions in the past that he envisions TRT becoming a dominant party, like UMNO in Malaysia or the PAP in Singapore. He has politicized the bureaucracy, forcing career civil servants (who are supposed to be politically neutral) to campaign for him or risk their careers. He has even stacked the courts and and "independent" agencies with his cronices. The longer he stays in power, the more entrenched TRT becomes. You say wait until 2008 - but by then, the people may no longer be left with the freedom to choose.

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Let me just add another word about "stability." At this point, the source of Thailand's political instability is Thaksin himself. With his abrasive manner, authoritarian style, refusal to listen to critics and intimidation of the press, he has limited political space. These efforts to manage society and limit political space has caused tension in society to simmer to a boiling point. He yields a little only when he's really pushed into a corner - which only further encourages his detractors.

It all didn't have to turn out this way. If he had governed with a sublter style and delegated more authority, then maybe things would have been different. Thaksin's obsession with winning every battle (i.e. his control freakery) could end up causing him to lose the war. Check out this BKK Post op-ed, BTW, on some of the problems of Thaksin's politcal style: http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/24Feb2006_news23.php

Of course, it's too late for Thaksin to get a personality transplant now. Even if he did, he's already needlessly pissed too many people off, so it wouldn't help matters much. I think for him, the smartest course is to resign gracefully now, which would leave the door open to a comeback in the future (as scary as that may sound to me).

Edited by tettyan
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Most Thai voters haven't learned anything, why would they not vote for Taksin again?

I don't think they are mature enough to make serious decisions like who to vote for. Maybe it's trial and error process in it's very beginning. Many people burnt their fingers on Taksin, many haven't yet.

I think it's responsibility of the country's leaders to educate voters. Unfortunately Taksin shut them off long time ago. Another one of his legacies - destroying all other authorities but himself. When Samak went after Prem it was a too big bite to chew, though.

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He has politicized the bureaucracy, forcing career civil servants (who are supposed to be politically neutral) to campaign for him or risk their careers.

That is actually a very good point you bring up here, which hasn't talked much about here.

The atmosphere in the different ministries is very politicised nowadays. In one ministry i regularly have to visit i got to know over the years some people a bit better. The person i deal with all the time is not a TRT supporter. This officer explained me some of the situation, said that since the beginning of TRT rule heads of departments are replaced with TRT members, officers who do not support TRT are put on ice and that there is a general athmosphere of fear under the non TRT supporting civil servants. I have heard similar stories from civil servants of other ministries as well.

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Criticizing Taksin's corruption, many TVers openly brag that they freely bribe those in authority, whether police, customs, or immigration officials. Deploring the sleaziness of BKK, they openly hire prostitues. Decrying the inherent unfairness of the current administration, they're only worried about the higher prices of cigarettes, liquor, and the censorship of their favorite pornographic websites.

I sincerely hope that Taksin finishes his current term. Thais ought to learn that there's no "do-overs": you elect a crook, and you're stuck with him. Perhaps the Thais will use his last term as a learning experience.

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In my Moo Ban the locals are talking about a Thai news channel that has said he is going to dissolve parliament and seek re election.

He has been filmed quoting that if the people give him another chance he will promise to take care of the poor.

He will not do any more business deals that will effect the country and will work solely for the Thai people and especially the poor.

He guarantees all the poor will be taken care of and all there bad debts taken care of and will be wiped out.

When he is voted back in this time it will be a different parliament with a new objective and that no one will be able to complain after he is relelected should they not like what he does.

I didn,t know he had officially resigned yet so think the last sentence has been taken out of context in some way but then again maybe they know more than we do, being Thai.

On the last point one has to agree that if they do re-elect him then they deserve whatever he does and will loose there one and only chance to get rid of him and really make the changes they surely deserve.

The local Pu yai where clapping him and cheering, my wife says and telling all within earshot that they must vote for him again and they will be rewarded for supporting him.?????????????????????????????

OH! OH! Not again.....

I would only hope that by some miracle they have truly seen the error of his ways and all his self rewarding schemes and are made to understand this at last by honest powers where ever they live.

As for the bribes on offer he has a very big war chest and can / will be able to buy many of the votes in the rural areas.

My hope is that he resigns and leaves the government intact then at least there is a chance to see it all through.

Otherwise it,s back to square one.

Only then will the changes everyone wants be implemented/started and real progress come out of this.

Otherwise after witnessing the struggles of the last 13 years things will continue to go on a downward spiral for the under privilidged for many more years to come.

In my humble opinion anyway.

marshbags :D:D:D

It would seem the local Moo ban did know something.

It,s just been confirmed om ITV 18.15 parliament has been dissolved as of now and a re-election within 60 days.

Now says as i am typing the Kamoy in chief has confirmed it to ITV

Jai Dee will probably have more info on his thread about it all.

marshbags :o

P.S. sorry if it,s duplicated while i,m adding the additional info.

Edited by marshbags
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The biggest face ( 2 ) saving of recent history.

Don,t know what will happen on Sunday now but, they all want to start getting some serious re educating on the rights and wrongs going now to prevent a re run plus an extention of power and a new duration to do more miss deeds.

Especially in the rural areas.

He has proved how selfish and uncaring he is about Thailand and it,s loyal citizens by not doing the honourable thing and resigning from his party and the government.

An evil devil and no mistake..............................

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Criticizing Taksin's corruption, many TVers openly brag that they freely bribe those in authority, whether police, customs, or immigration officials. Deploring the sleaziness of BKK, they openly hire prostitues. Decrying the inherent unfairness of the current administration, they're only worried about the higher prices of cigarettes, liquor, and the censorship of their favorite pornographic websites.

I am appalled by your comments. You have no right to make assumptions about the character of posters on this board. You don't even know us! Most of us here are here for a serious (and sometimes light-hearted) discussion of the issues. If you want to comment on the personalities of other people over the internet, I suggest you go over to a personals website.

Just for the record, I don't fit the description of what you describe, and I don't think many others here either, though I can't speak for them. But nor is it my (or any of ours') business to ask or bring this up.

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Criticizing Taksin's corruption, many TVers openly brag that they freely bribe those in authority, whether police, customs, or immigration officials. Deploring the sleaziness of BKK, they openly hire prostitues. Decrying the inherent unfairness of the current administration, they're only worried about the higher prices of cigarettes, liquor, and the censorship of their favorite pornographic websites.

I am appalled by your comments. You have no right to make assumptions about the character of posters on this board. You don't even know us! Most of us here are here for a serious (and sometimes light-hearted) discussion of the issues. If you want to comment on the personalities of other people over the internet, I suggest you go over to a personals website.

Just for the record, I don't fit the description of what you describe, and I don't think many others here either, though I can't speak for them. But nor is it my (or any of ours') business to ask or bring this up.

You're appalled!!! :o:cheesy: Good one!! :D:cheesy:

It's not nice to comment about peoples personalities over the internet!! :D:cheesy:

Serious discussion!! :D:cheesy:

Edited by chownah
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Criticizing Taksin's corruption, many TVers openly brag that they freely bribe those in authority, whether police, customs, or immigration officials. Deploring the sleaziness of BKK, they openly hire prostitues. Decrying the inherent unfairness of the current administration, they're only worried about the higher prices of cigarettes, liquor, and the censorship of their favorite pornographic websites.

I am appalled by your comments. You have no right to make assumptions about the character of posters on this board. You don't even know us! Most of us here are here for a serious (and sometimes light-hearted) discussion of the issues. If you want to comment on the personalities of other people over the internet, I suggest you go over to a personals website.

Just for the record, I don't fit the description of what you describe, and I don't think many others here either, though I can't speak for them. But nor is it my (or any of ours') business to ask or bring this up.

................................................................................

......ended

To extend on tettyan,s observations

Unfortunately bribery as you call it backflip is a part of Thai culture and we all have at some time have been asked to oblige and this is the way of preventing further problems, even when innocent it pays to give them a few baht for personal convenience.

I,m not saying this is acceptable for serious offences by the way before you take the wrong side of my point.

The Kamoy in chief is not in the same league and shame on you for putting us all in this catergory.

Let,s be sensible please and not put our debating on his level.

marshbags :o:D:D

Edited by marshbags
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Criticizing Taksin's corruption, many TVers openly brag that they freely bribe those in authority, whether police, customs, or immigration officials. Deploring the sleaziness of BKK, they openly hire prostitues. Decrying the inherent unfairness of the current administration, they're only worried about the higher prices of cigarettes, liquor, and the censorship of their favorite pornographic websites.

I am appalled by your comments. You have no right to make assumptions about the character of posters on this board. You don't even know us! Most of us here are here for a serious (and sometimes light-hearted) discussion of the issues. If you want to comment on the personalities of other people over the internet, I suggest you go over to a personals website.

Just for the record, I don't fit the description of what you describe, and I don't think many others here either, though I can't speak for them. But nor is it my (or any of ours') business to ask or bring this up.

You're appalled!!! :o:cheesy: Good one!! :D:cheesy:

It's not nice to comment about peoples personalities over the internet!! :D:cheesy:

Serious discussion!! :D:cheesy:

Very funny. I will not dignify you juvenile reaction with any further response.

Edited by tettyan
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He just met Prem, now the King himself. The man is clutching the last straws.

It's interesting how he replied to reporters asking about the meeting with Prem:

''It was a talk between phu-yai [seniors]. You don't have to know.''

Shows exactly how much respect he has for the regular Thais. Unbelieveable.

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As a Thai, and not a pro-Thaksin supporter (didn't even vote), I do feel Thaksin is indeed trying. Yes, he's neck deep in the corruption trough like every other administration since 1950 (and no, having a few people in any administration who happened to not be corrupt by no means made that administration corruption free, either in total amounts or principle... ala Chuan, others...), but the poor have never had opportunities like the one's given to them by the Thaksin administration. Yes, understandably they have failed at paying back loans, but hello, they are from a hundred plus generations of poor folks, it's not like you can expect a miracle transformation from 'in the fields' work ethic to business owners in a few years.

:o

Yes, and exactly because they are from "hundred plus generations of poor folks" enabling them to take advantage of huge loans is the exact opposite of giving them opportunities.

If Thaksin would have listened to people with expertise (and there are many of them in Thailand) - he would have implemented well researched agricultural programs exactly tailored for those underpriviledged people. And he would have enforced existing laws, especially concerning the sor por kor 401 issue, not just enabled them to take out loans on their meagre holdings.

What he has achieved is pushing the people he claimed to help into huge debts. He initiated large scale agricultural scemes that sound nice on paper, but are of benefit only to the exporters (if at all) and not the peasant farmers.

I personally could not care less about the shin corp sale, as long as he would have fullfilled his ambitious promises towards the poor. Which he didn't - he pushed them even further into poverty.

In hindsight, yes, that's quite clear now, isn't it? However to many (well to do and poor alike), the opportunity given to them was interpreted exactly as such, an opportunity. Programs that did not allow these folks actual access to funds were often criticized (by the poor and perpetual critics alike) as treating the poor like children.

The loans offered were hardly huge (I doubt anyone would argue that it crippled the economy or even was a substantial part of any single year's gov't budget) and such losses are more than worth it as a lesson learned - that the cookie jar has no place in the countryside. The tradition has been crumbs, and the poor have proven (with their expected mismanagement of funds) that it was a bad idea to change tradition.

:D

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In hindsight, yes, that's quite clear now, isn't it? However to many (well to do and poor alike), the opportunity given to them was interpreted exactly as such, an opportunity. Programs that did not allow these folks actual access to funds were often criticized (by the poor and perpetual critics alike) as treating the poor like children.

The loans offered were hardly huge (I doubt anyone would argue that it crippled the economy or even was a substantial part of any single year's gov't budget) and such losses are more than worth it as a lesson learned - that the cookie jar has no place in the countryside. The tradition has been crumbs, and the poor have proven (with their expected mismanagement of funds) that it was a bad idea to change tradition.

:D

I didn't expect any differnt answer from you.

Thaksin was, according to your logic (faulty in itself as ever) very much part of the tradition of giving crumbs. Only far better marketed crumbs than the usual supects gave. Not "even was a substantial part of any single year's gov't budget".

But, it might, according to you, not "cripple the economy", but it will push the poor even far deeper into poverty. Which you appearantly don't have any problem with.

You obviously seem to enjoy the status quo of a third world shithouse economy, especially being on the upper ranges that does profit from such an economy. I wonder though about your historical understanding, especially where those conditions generally seem to lead to inevitably.

No, my friend from the presently dominant business class, there was no hindsight. Everyone who ever had business in the countryside with the poor other than ripping them off, knew from the beginning where this is going to lead. And many villagers that are not blinded by greed knew as well.

I just hope for you that you are smart enough to never display the attitude you have shown here consistenly in one of those villages. In my wife's village, for example, your survival span would be approximately 2 minutes. That includes the time for the guys to get over the initial shock and to get the gun out of the box. The forest is close by, and there are already many other people buried who got into trouble. That is a tradition there. :o

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Pardon me for butting in, but I couldn't let this pass.

colpyat: you assume that I made "a conclusion that no summary executions were made" - which I did not.

I just pointed out to you that you were not there, so, how can you assume that summary executions were made?

in my country, you are innocent before proven guilty.

on this subject of the drug war, you have already judged thaksin guilty on all points without even presenting any proof other then mostly heresay. that is what I don't feel comfortable with.

this is mob mentality. vigilante rules.

could it be... that maybe independent police officers are taking the laws within their own hands? have you heard of rogue police? it happens.

(emphasis mine)

Who says irony is dead?

Defending extrajudicial killings while saying, "in my country, you are innocent before proven guilty."

True, but you're usually first proven guilty of a capital offense in a court of law before being executed.

But wait, there's more:

I believe in freedom of speech as long as what you have to say is not based on lies. when you accuse someone of something without any substantial proof, you are lying.

Er, no it isn't.

You need to get a dictionary, my friend.

For starters.

jb :o

Edited by joe beets
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In hindsight, yes, that's quite clear now, isn't it? However to many (well to do and poor alike), the opportunity given to them was interpreted exactly as such, an opportunity. Programs that did not allow these folks actual access to funds were often criticized (by the poor and perpetual critics alike) as treating the poor like children.

The loans offered were hardly huge (I doubt anyone would argue that it crippled the economy or even was a substantial part of any single year's gov't budget) and such losses are more than worth it as a lesson learned - that the cookie jar has no place in the countryside. The tradition has been crumbs, and the poor have proven (with their expected mismanagement of funds) that it was a bad idea to change tradition.

:D

I didn't expect any differnt answer from you.

Thaksin was, according to your logic (faulty in itself as ever) very much part of the tradition of giving crumbs. Only far better marketed crumbs than the usual supects gave. Not "even was a substantial part of any single year's gov't budget".

But, it might, according to you, not "cripple the economy", but it will push the poor even far deeper into poverty. Which you appearantly don't have any problem with.

You obviously seem to enjoy the status quo of a third world shithouse economy, especially being on the upper ranges that does profit from such an economy. I wonder though about your historical understanding, especially where those conditions generally seem to lead to inevitably.

No, my friend from the presently dominant business class, there was no hindsight. Everyone who ever had business in the countryside with the poor other than ripping them off, knew from the beginning where this is going to lead. And many villagers that are not blinded by greed knew as well.

I just hope for you that you are smart enough to never display the attitude you have shown here consistenly in one of those villages. In my wife's village, for example, your survival span would be approximately 2 minutes. That includes the time for the guys to get over the initial shock and to get the gun out of the box. The forest is close by, and there are already many other people buried who got into trouble. That is a tradition there. :o

Yeah, there's an unemotional response. You're saying I'd be shot in your wife's village for being me? Which village is that, curiously? Or let me guess, it's a secret village in your mind, eh?

:D

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Joe beets: Some have tried, all have failed to reason with "haha". Note his 'name' and avatar. :D:D

You obviously seem to enjoy the status quo of a third world shithouse economy, especially being on the upper ranges that does profit from such an economy. I wonder though about your historical understanding, especially where those conditions generally seem to lead to inevitably.

You have to understand that Heng, as a self-confessed loanshark, is one of the people who take delight in others' failure to succeed. :o

You're barking up the wrong tree if you expect any sympathy or humbleness towards others. :D

Edited by zzap
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Pardon me for butting in, but I couldn't let this pass.
colpyat: you assume that I made "a conclusion that no summary executions were made" - which I did not.

I just pointed out to you that you were not there, so, how can you assume that summary executions were made?

in my country, you are innocent before proven guilty.

on this subject of the drug war, you have already judged thaksin guilty on all points without even presenting any proof other then mostly heresay. that is what I don't feel comfortable with.

this is mob mentality. vigilante rules.

could it be... that maybe independent police officers are taking the laws within their own hands? have you heard of rogue police? it happens.

(emphasis mine)

Who says irony is dead?

Defending extrajudicial killings while saying, "in my country, you are innocent before proven guilty."

True, but you're usually first proven guilty of a capital offense in a court of law before being executed.

But wait, there's more:

I believe in freedom of speech as long as what you have to say is not based on lies. when you accuse someone of something without any substantial proof, you are lying.

Er, no it isn't.

You need to get a dictionary, my friend.

For starters.

jb :o

I am not sure what you are trying to point out. sorry if I'm not smart enough to understand you. could you rephrase what you said in simpler terms for me to understand?

if you are saying that freedom of speech includes the right to lie, then, I don't agree with you. that's not the way it is suppose to be.

I just heard that a new election will be invoked in 60 days. it will be interesting to see if the anti-thaksin folks will fall in line to assist the newly elected whoever they might be.

my guess is they will just complain again without providing any constructive criticism.

we shall see....

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I am not sure what you are trying to point out. sorry if I'm not smart enough to understand you. could you rephrase what you said in simpler terms for me to understand?
There is no rephrase which could be simple enough for you, mate. :o:D
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