I wouldn't write off Surakiart's chances just yet, but he's definitely a long-shot candidate. That's not just my personal assessment, it's the assessment of a senior US diplomat I happened to talk to not too long ago. Furthermore, his rather aggressisve and undiplomatic lobbying tactics havn't endeared himself to the Bush Cabinet - frankly, some of them are rather turned off by him as a result.

The US keeps insisting that there should be no regional rotation system (i.e. insisting on an Asian) and that qualifications, experience and abilities should be the basis of deciding. The Russians and Chinese as well as the Asians and Africans insist that this should be "Asia's turn." If the Americans can't get the UNSC to agree on the ex-Polish President, then in the end they'd accept an Asian, but again, insist on someone who meets their qualifications. Frankly, on this measure, Surakiart is at a disadvantage. Aside from his fancy Harvard degree, and rather mediocre stints as Finance and Foreign minister, he doesn't have much to recommend himself, especially compared to the Sri Lankan, the East Timoran or even the S Korean. He's never managed a large bureaucratic organization (one of the criteria cited by the US) and his experience in diplomacy is light (compare 4 years as the foreign minister of a medium-sized country with running a UN Department for years, respected career diplomats and successful freedom fighters).

So it's never over until it's over. But as more and more people join the race, Surakiart's gonna need a new set of cards if he's ever gonna have a chance.

Before entering politics, Surakiart was the dean of the faculty of law at Chulalongkorn University, Thailand's top university.

Nice recognition for Chula.... and poetic that the school now has so many of it's faculty crying out for the ouster of "Dr." Thaksin.