Poll: Predict the outcome of the U.S. presidential election (electoral college and after)

[chiang mai]

"To be honest I think the real villains the real misanthropes here on TV are those who give out the advice to throw caution to the wind, and jump into life in Thailand without a very sound financial plan - They too often seem to be inviting others to join them in the mistakes they themselves have made - and yet the accusation of misguiding people is placed on those who advise caution".

On this aspect we agree fully, it'll be interesting to see what happens to them in the comming years as inflation starts to bite into their "incomes"! But as I think you said earlier, ex-pat numbers in Thailand are falling so I suspect most will simply quietly disappear, next to be seen working in menial tasks in a very very expensive home country. But we digress.

[farang000999]

The inflation rate in Thailand will largely be dictated by external forces. Wage increases will lead to higher prices but it is not like they are collecting property taxes or putting people in jail for tax evasion, meaning that, there will still be very little wealth redistribution and you shouldn't expect this to turn into a 1st world country anytime soon.

Bangkok on the other hand seems to be growing exponentially and will likely continue to do so. Already you are seeing Bangkok becoming too expensive for farang in certain areas. Notice how you are seeing farang in places in Bangkok you rarely saw them before? Yes, there may be more farang here than ever but they are being pushed out of the more expensive areas.

[chiang mai]

The inflation rate in Thailand will largely be dictated by external forces. Wage increases will lead to higher prices but it is not like they are collecting property taxes or putting people in jail for tax evasion, meaning that, there will still be very little wealth redistribution and you shouldn't expect this to turn into a 1st world country anytime soon.

Bangkok on the other hand seems to be growing exponentially and will likely continue to do so. Already you are seeing Bangkok becoming too expensive for farang in certain areas. Notice how you are seeing farang in places in Bangkok you rarely saw them before? Yes, there may be more farang here than ever but they are being pushed out of the more expensive areas.

Can you define what you mean, specifically, by external influences?

As for farangs being pushed out: back in the late 1990's there were quite a few farangs who chose to go and live in Issan at a time when much of it was largely undeveloped in terms of insfrasturcture and facilities, most of them moved there because of the lower cost of living. It therefore follows that will alwys be some farangs who are priced out of most places.

[farang000999]

The price of oil and other commodities and the choices of the various Central Banks.

[Naam]

To be honest I think the real villains the real misanthropes here on TV are those who give out the advice to throw caution to the wind, and jump into life in Thailand without a very sound financial plan

The problem is at retirement age that once you make your bed you have to lay in it, there's most often no chance to revert to life as it existed before.

GuestHouse, Chiang Mai;

in this respect i am lost. i've read a lot of advice on TV ref "not to burn bridges" and now your claim "most often no chance to revert to life..."

can you elaborate why a British, French, Swiss or German retiree cannot make a 180º turn and go back to his home country and enjoy national health insurance and any other goodies the [in my case] "Vaterland" has to offer? before we settled in Thailand we used to spend for years umpteenth times our holidays in Phuket, Samui but mostly in Pattaya. spending daily a few hours at Jomtien Beach we got to know a number of retirees mostly from continental Europe.

the majority of them lived on a budget and only a few had substantial savings/investments. some (few) of them made and still make ends meet with abyssmally low monthly pensions but still lead a lifestyle they couldn't have afforded in Europe and they preferred that lifestyle. with a social insurance payment of monthly €UR 700 - 900 an old retiree lives in Europe like a pauper. no such thing like a small apartment in walking distance to the beach for € 200-300, no belly filling main meal for € 2-3, no live-in girlfriend 20 or 30 years junior who cleans the apartment, does the laundry and provides sex at least twice a year of even much more often (as the claims were).

for these retirees Thailand is Paradise compared to Europe. they are living a life millions of others can only dream of. if i'm not mistaken their only and biggest threat is bad health as there's no such thing like free health care in their dreamland.

therefore my questions to both of you are:

-"why would they need a financial plan enabling them to jump into a life in Thailand?"

-"why can't they revert to their former lives and board a plane to Munich, Zürich, Paris or Heathrow?"

-"what does the category i mentioned have to lose making a decision to retire in Thailand?"

[chiang mai]

I'll leaave GH to answer the first point but I'll take the second and will consider the third.

I can only speak for UK ex-pats when I say that ageism in the workplace is rife in the UK, if a person did have a good job at one time, the chances that they will get the same one again, or even a similar one, become more remote as a person approaches fifty years of age, closer to fifty five and it becomes increasingly difficult and sixty year olds rarely stand any chance at all. There will of course be exceptions to that rule where individuals have niche skills that remain in high demand and/or the ex-pat has left a business they can return to, but they must be very much the exception. A returning ex-pat also has to consider the degree to which past skills remain up to date.

Other factors that impact on returning UK ex-pats include an increased cost of living, potential inelligibility to free healthcare without an interim wait, burnt bridges that are sometimes impossible to repair and accomodation costs that have skyrocketed. I think it's for those reasons and others that would be ex-pats need to think long deep and hard about when/if they should become an ex-pat anywhere and of course, have a plan B in there back pocket, sadly most don't as GH alluded to earlier.

As for the third point: if pensioners, not younger people I would suggest, want to live here in retirement on a budget then great, all the points you make about the cost of food, accomodation and "personal assitants" are all valid points. But if a person choses to do that, under those circumstances they have to accept the risk that goes with it and they include, loss of income through inflation, loss of income through inflation, lack of govermental support, the potential that the host government could change the rules on them at any time in respect of their elligibility to remain, health care costs and many more that don't immediatly spring to mind. With adequate assets those risks are mitigated, without they are real.

[chiang mai]

The price of oil and other commodities and the choices of the various Central Banks.

Agreed that the oil price is a signifcant factor but I'm unsure about the central banks. The only central bank decision that really concerns Thailand is the US, but since USD is a the global reserve currency any decision by the Fed impacts almost country/currency.

[Naam]

As for the third point: if pensioners, not younger people I would suggest, want to live here in retirement on a budget then great, all the points you make about the cost of food, accomodation and "personal assitants" are all valid points. But if a person choses to do that, under those circumstances they have to accept the risk that goes with it and they include, loss of income through inflation, loss of income through inflation, lack of govermental support, the potential that the host government could change the rules on them at any time in respect of their elligibility to remain, health care costs and many more that don't immediatly spring to mind.

then the alternative i mentioned applies

...board a plane to Munich, Zürich, Paris or Heathrow

id est = no risk at all for them enjoying the dolce vita in Thailand. they have nothing to lose but a lot to gain. i still meet some of the oldtimers when i go to the beach once a month for a pedicure (administered by the same lady since more than 20 years) and i don't find them bitter or disappointed. au contraire, the opposite is the case because they are well aware what kind of life their peers in Europe are leading.

[necronx99]

therefore my questions to both of you are:

-"why would they need a financial plan enabling them to jump into a life in Thailand?"

-"why can't they revert to their former lives and board a plane to Munich, Zürich, Paris or Heathrow?"

-"what does the category i mentioned have to lose making a decision to retire in Thailand?"

Most of them would neck themselves after 2 weeks of living in pain and rating catfood and drinking turps in their grimy cold council flat or homeless pension house.

The biggest problem I and I think many have is how long do we have?

I don't want to end up like

Edited April 14, 2012 by necronx99

[farang000999]

The price of oil and other commodities and the choices of the various Central Banks.

Agreed that the oil price is a signifcant factor but I'm unsure about the central banks. The only central bank decision that really concerns Thailand is the US, but since USD is a the global reserve currency any decision by the Fed impacts almost country/currency.

Global quanitative easing leads to higher commodity prices and devaluation of paper currency. When was the last time a central bank stated that it wanted a strong currency?

[GuestHouse]

........before we settled in Thailand we used to spend for years umpteenth times our holidays in Phuket, Samui but mostly in Pattaya. spending daily a few hours at Jomtien Beach we got to know a number of retirees mostly from continental Europe.

the majority of them lived on a budget and only a few had substantial savings/investments. some (few) of them made and still make ends meet with abyssmally low monthly pensions but still lead a lifestyle they couldn't have afforded in Europe and they preferred that lifestyle. ......

therefore my questions to both of you are:

-"why would they need a financial plan enabling them to jump into a life in Thailand?"

You should take a trip back to Jomtien and have a look how many of those people are still around, the answer to that will give an indication why it is essential to have financial plan in place.

But in a sense I agree with you, an old guy already retired might indeed have little to loose and lots to gain by moving to Thailand - The games over, he's not going to make any more money in life, so not loosing out by coming to Thailand, and he presumably has the security of his pension to keep him.

The guys who take the biggest risk, are those that move to Thailand to for early retirement. Each is of course living different circumstances, some of course have substantial sums of money behind them, many do not.

A guy in his 30s, 40s, 50s who does not have a substantial sum of money behind him or his pensions sorted either has to find well paid work and start saving or is heading for late life poverty. Do the math, a low paid job in Thailand might put food on the table but is it supporting long term savings for old age?

[Naam]

A guy in his 30s, 40s, 50s who does not have a substantial sum of money behind him or his pensions sorted either has to find well paid work and start saving or is heading for late life poverty. Do the math, a low paid job in Thailand might put food on the table but is it supporting long term savings for old age?

no maths required for those mentioned above. but i don't know any of these guys and referred to the old pensioner geezers i know since quite some years and whom i still meet once a month. granted, every couple of years or so one is missing because he left for the eternal hunting grounds but another one or even two will have taken his place.

[IAMHERE]

QE3 is on its way. Quantitative Easing will erode the dollar/baht exchange rate as it has in the past. Move your dollars to baht as soon as you can, the exchange rate is going to get worse.

[Naam]

QE3 is on its way. Quantitative Easing will erode the dollar/baht exchange rate as it has in the past. Move your dollars to baht as soon as you can, the exchange rate is going to get worse.

no such thing like quantitative easing existed in the past when the Baht started to appreciate mid of 2005 and quantitative easing three years later, when the financial crisis started, caused initially a weaker Baht.

here's the beef Baht vs. USD:

[Gonsalviz]

It's the fall in Western currencies over the past two years or so that makes the Baht appear much stronger than it is, USD, GBP and the Euro have fallen by as much as a third. As for the other aspect of your question: BOT holds significant foriegn currency reserves, USD160 bill or so at last glance and it uses these funds to redirect THB as necessary. Having said, such redirection in the value of THB is in an attempt to keep it near to the midpoint of a basket of regional currencies. In recent times the BOT has sought to weaken THB through the mechanism described previously, global FOREX market trades do not impact on the value of THB to any meaningful degree since it is such a small currency that is not widely traded.

It's the fall in Western currencies over the past two years

is it because the glass is half full or half empty? what do you mean by "fall"? fall versus what currencies which caused the Baht's strength?

As for the other aspect of your question: BOT holds significant foriegn currency reserves, USD160 bill or so at last glance and it uses these funds to redirect THB as necessary.

for the record: the BoT holds these significant currency reserves because it keeps on intervening selling THB and buying USD in order to reduce the pressure on THB to appreciate. without these interventions we'd be back to square one (1985 till 1997), id est Thai Baht 25 for 1 US-Dollar.

i'm getting my coat!

It is quite easy to keep it strong to the USD with the current administration printing money like there is no tomorrow.

[chiang mai]

You haven't read the previous posts in this thread, have you!

[4evermaat]

To be honest I think the real villains the real misanthropes here on TV are those who give out the advice to throw caution to the wind, and jump into life in Thailand without a very sound financial plan

....................

for these retirees Thailand is Paradise compared to Europe. they are living a life millions of others can only dream of. if i'm not mistaken their only and biggest threat is bad health as there's no such thing like free health care in their dreamland.

therefore my questions to both of you are:

-"why would they need a financial plan enabling them to jump into a life in Thailand?"

-"why can't they revert to their former lives and board a plane to Munich, Zürich, Paris or Heathrow?"

-"what does the category i mentioned have to lose making a decision to retire in Thailand?"

Most of them would neck themselves after 2 weeks of living in pain and rating catfood and drinking turps in their grimy cold council flat or homeless pension house.

The biggest problem I and I think many have is how long do we have?

I don't want to end up like

As long as we think we have many years in the future, we'll never make any choices. Naam has consistently made a lot of good points. We are all responsible for our choices and clearly you would have to support whatever habits you bring/gain/lose here in Thailand as you would anywhere else. But those of us who want to live on a few hundred USD certainly can do so and will hardly feel any effects. If you run out of money, i think the basic consequences would be the same anywhere: you're stuck until you have more. Thailand still remains a great value for those that value it.

Despite the endless arguments about what causes inflation, the monetary system of fiat currency and floating currency is relative. The worst case scenario beside the sky falling is that the US Dollar or another major fiat player ceases to exist. If one door closes, another will open eventually. There will be another country who wants to take over the world, there will be another country who doesn't want to change, and the sky has to do something after it falls to the ground ....maybe travel back up towards outer space .