Prem Accord Leaves The Red Shirts Simmering

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Prem accord leaves the red shirts simmering

Piyanart Srivalo

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Although Wichian Khaokham emerged as the election candidate for president of the Udon Thani Provincial Administration Organisation, conflicts between factions in the ruling Pheu Thai Party and red-shirt groups are still far from over.

The dispute in the Udon Thani local election reflects the red shirts' dissatisfaction with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's move to seek a compromise with conservative General Prem Tinsulanonda, seen as representing the elite.

Thaksin's sister, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, together with three of her deputies, visited Prem's residence to pay respects after Songkran.

To the red shirts, Thaksin and Yingluck have already caved in. The fighting against the establishment over the past years, which claimed many lives among them, came to naught. Thaksin simply used them as his stepladder to power.

The failure of Pheu Thai in the recent local election in Pathum Thani was a lesson to teach Thaksin and party leaders that the red shirts, who are their main supporters, are unhappy with the compromise.

The "Pathum Thani model" might strike fear in Thaksin as it could be repeated in many provinces where the ruling party fields candidates in local races. Elections for PAO chiefs and by-elections for representatives to the House will be held in many provinces this year.

Red shirts in many provinces have their own candidates for the races. In many provinces they disagree with the candidates proposed by the ruling party. In Udon Thani, Wichian was a compromise candidate as the red shirts disagreed with the party's choice.

Thaksin does not want to lose his strong support base in the North and Northeast. He instructed famous speakers of the red shirts who are now holding cabinet portfolios such as Deputy Agriculture Minister Nattawut Saikua to help the campaign in local elections in many provinces where the red shirts are active.

The red shirts no longer want to be passive supporters for the party and Thaksin. They want more participation in the party. A recent proposal from the red shirts for a "primary" to select election candidates for the party was raised to pave the way for their men to join the races.

Some key Pheu Thai leaders likely agree with the idea for primaries for elections at all levels but they remain indecisive. Many of them, however, went to ask Thaksin's opinion as the final say on who would be the party's candidates.

Thaksin probably is struggling to find a solution to deal with the red shirts' demand. The red shirts' proposal is very advanced for the Thai political party system. If primary elections are adopted by the Pheu Thai Party, the party might become a real mass-run party, but Thaksin and his clan might lose their grip on the party.

If Thaksin dumps the red shirts who made the proposal and demanded more participation in the party's decision-making, he and his party might lose strong support from the red shirts. It is very difficult to estimate how many red shirts are really loyal to Thaksin and answer only to his instructions.

Time is running out. Thaksin cannot think too long about this matter. PAO chiefs in 76 provinces across the nation will end their terms this year and the polls for this position alone will take place throughout the year, not to mention elections at lower levels of local administrations such as districts and subdistricts. Altogether 3,118 local administrative bodies have to hold elections to fill vacant seats this year.

If the ruling Pheu Thai Party fails to find some proper solutions for the nominations of its candidates and to allocate decision-making power to its red-shirt supporters, other parties in the race such as the Democrats and Bhumjaithai will take the disillusioned red shirts under their wing.

-- The Nation 2012-05-10

[dru2]

Where do they get these reporters from? The Democrats will take the Red Shirts 'under their wing'. I don't think so. What the Reds need is their own political party untainted by the corruption of the Thaksin clan. The Reds have to learn to stand on their own feet, without Thaksin's stolen funding - and then maybe they'll garner 5-10 percent of the national vote.

[sparebox2]

Does the world in general associate Red with communism?

[apetley]

New elite talking with the old elite.

If anyone thought that would never happen then they were seriously misguided, deluded or more likely just plain naive.

It will be very interesting for Thai politics if the Redshirts can organise themselves into something visibly different to PT.

Posted with Thaivisa App http://apps.thaivisa.com

[Mosha]

Does the world in general associate Red with communism?

It's mostly seen as a left wing colour, although in the USA I think it's used to represent the Republican party.

[OzMick]

New elite talking with the old elite.

If anyone thought that would never happen then they were seriously misguided, deluded or more likely just plain naive.

It will be very interesting for Thai politics if the Redshirts can organise themselves into something visibly different to PT.

Posted with Thaivisa App http://apps.thaivisa.com

Organisation costs money, and a lot of it. We all have a pretty good idea where it has been coming from, the question is can they AFFORD to break away.

And if you think that Jatuporn, Nuttiwat and the other "leading lights" of the reds (who have become millionaires over the past few years) are going to abandon the PTP tit to live on donations from the red rabble, you sadly over-estimate their altruism.

[moe666]

Does the world in general associate Red with communism?

It's mostly seen as a left wing colour, although in the USA I think it's used to represent the Republican party.

Not really the Republicans have never been to far to the left more to the right and now the far right. The way PTP is throwing around money at present would have been ok with George Bush but this bunch in control now would be haveing a fit.

[TAWP]

Does the world in general associate Red with communism?

It's mostly seen as a left wing colour, although in the USA I think it's used to represent the Republican party.

Not really the Republicans have never been to far to the left more to the right and now the far right. The way PTP is throwing around money at present would have been ok with George Bush but this bunch in control now would be haveing a fit.

He didn't mean to imply that the Republicans in the US has ever been left. Neither is the 'red' something associated with them, you cannot say you voted 'red' and everyone knows what you mean. It is more a case of 'using two basic color to paint the map to represent what major party the representatives comes from', not what color of t-shirt they have or what is part of their name.

Those with red in their name are more often left.

[marinediscoking]

Does the world in general associate Red with communism?

It's mostly seen as a left wing colour, although in the USA I think it's used to represent the Republican party.

You are out of your mind if you think it used to represent the republican party, remember McCarthyism.

[CosmicSurfer]

The red shirts' proposal is very advanced for the Thai political party system. If primary elections are adopted by the Pheu Thai Party, the party might become a real mass-run party, but Thaksin and his clan might lose their grip on the party.

The Tea-Party comes to mind!

CS

[hyperdimension]

New elite talking with the old elite.

If anyone thought that would never happen then they were seriously misguided, deluded or more likely just plain naive.

It will be very interesting for Thai politics if the Redshirts can organise themselves into something visibly different to PT.

Posted with Thaivisa App http://apps.thaivisa.com

Organisation costs money, and a lot of it. We all have a pretty good idea where it has been coming from, the question is can they AFFORD to break away.

And if you think that Jatuporn, Nuttiwat and the other "leading lights" of the reds (who have become millionaires over the past few years) are going to abandon the PTP tit to live on donations from the red rabble, you sadly over-estimate their altruism.

Yes, funding is a key factor in the size and strength of the Red Shirt movement. What I wrote yesterday in another thread is very relevant here:

If they have over 10M supporters (and this number is expected to grow significantly) as stated in the news article, why couldn't the Red Shirts set up their own political party and contest in the election?

As long as the Shinawatra clan funds them, they will continue to serve Shinawatra interests, even to the point of risking their lives (as in 2010 after being brainwashed into thinking that they were fighting against the aristocrats for true democracy). Their support base is as big as it is because of the funding, as the marketing / PR, stage protests and social engineering (community-building through holding many frequent entertainment events across the country) would have cost a lot. However, if the financial support is ever cut off, their growth expectations (double in 5 years) are much less likely, and instead they'd probably gradually weaken.

Why haven't the Red Shirts protested loudly against the cordial meeting between Yingluck and Prem, during which an agreement was made for Yingluck to consult him on affairs of state? One of the Red Shirts' existential foundations is (or was?) their disdain for the aristocrats, whom they feel care little about them, so the meeting with Prem would certainly have been against their ideology and hence there would be enough grounds to hold a mass protest. However there was no protest probably because of the issue of funding. Basically, whoever funds is boss, and recipients of the funds are the employees / servants / slaves / soldiers / pawns who, either knowingly or not, work or fight for the interests of the source of the funds.

Note also that there is still a lack of any response from the Red Shirt leaders regarding the death of Lese majeste detainee Amphon "Akong" Tangnoppakul, when there should be loud protests against the Lese majeste law, as true democracy and freedom of speech are supposedly what the Red Shirts have been fighting for.

The Red Shirt leaders, some of whom may have worked on ideology in the past, are now probably too addicted to the money that they earn from Thaksin and his clan, hence are unlikely to break away from it. So apart from the issue of funding, the Red Shirts who do want real improvements in their lives need to find new leaders who will genuinely work for their interests and who have not been hooked on Shinawatra money and will not be tempted to take it in the future. It would be a good idea for them to also drop the red color, in order to disassociate with Thaksin's Red Shirts and their big and loud marketing / PR, stage protests and entertainment events, with which they'd have to compete.

Edited May 10, 2012 by hyperdimension

[apetley]

New elite talking with the old elite.

If anyone thought that would never happen then they were seriously misguided, deluded or more likely just plain naive.

It will be very interesting for Thai politics if the Redshirts can organise themselves into something visibly different to PT.

Posted with Thaivisa App http://apps.thaivisa.com

Organisation costs money, and a lot of it. We all have a pretty good idea where it has been coming from, the question is can they AFFORD to break away.

And if you think that Jatuporn, Nuttiwat and the other "leading lights" of the reds (who have become millionaires over the past few years) are going to abandon the PTP tit to live on donations from the red rabble, you sadly over-estimate their altruism.

Agree entirely with what you say.

Just thinking out loud.

Imho grass roots redshirts and PT are getting further apart on ideology so something seems likely to give at some point in the future.

Posted with Thaivisa App http://apps.thaivisa.com

[ratcatcher]

Does the world in general associate Red with communism?

In general, yes.

Red China, The Soviet Union and its satellites, Mao's Little Red Book, "A red under every bed" (McCarthyism.)

Sister Thida and her husband Weng Tojirakarn are communists.

Manchester United, Arsenal & Liverpool are not.

Edited May 10, 2012 by ratcatcher

[Bagwan]

If the Reds do form their own political partywouldn't the likely outcome be that a few who manage to get themselves elected to Parliament suddenly become unusually rich? That they will ditch their principles, and supporters, and become a subset of the phu yai fraternity? Think of the Kinnocks, the Blairs, 'Two Jags' Prescott, millionaire Scargill, Thaksin himself, Jatuporn and his cohorts, and many US trades union leaders who got into bed with the Mafia.

The Reds leaders want power - and money - and if they get a handle on those, are likely to conveniently forget the ignorant needy rabble who helped them climb the ladder for the price of a few hundred baht and a tee shirt. I doubt that they will be any more committed to educating the masses than those who have gone before them. Would not an intelligent, knowledgeable and thinking electorate present a danger to them and their prospects, and the status quo that they aspire to be part of? I believe that it will take a political tsunami to turnThailand around so that it becomes a true and honest democracy and the odds on such an event occuring are very long indeed. I cannot envisage the tumbrils bumping their way through the streets of BKK lined with the 'sans culottes' and Madame Guillotine kept busy.

Edited May 10, 2012 by Bagwan

[Thai at Heart]

Communism bubbles under in parts of Isaan still today, and were the political stance of the reds to be obviously that way, there is no way that the army would countenance them having any significant political role. It is one thing for Prem and Yingluck to have a cup of tea together to work out if there is a way for Thaksin to get back, it is a completely different thing for extreme left wing politics to come into the mainstream of Thai politics.

Of course there are many shades of red, it would be interesting to see how scarlet any policies of a "red shirt" party would be.

[drdoom6996]

The Red Shirt Way or No Way

[BigJohnnyBKK]

Does the world in general associate Red with communism?

It's mostly seen as a left wing colour, although in the USA I think it's used to represent the Republican party.

Before 2000, the US networks would use arbitrary colours on their geographic graphics to indicate which party has won which states.

With the Gore/Bush debacle dragging on forever they started to standardize, but not completely until subsequent elections.

My opinion is that since it is obvious the Republicans have the most anti-socialist/communist stance it was safe to give them red, associating that colour with the left would be a derogatory slur to most Americans and thus open the media to accusations of subliminally denigrating the Democrats.

[animatic]

"...To the red shirts, Thaksin and Yingluck have already caved in. The fighting against the establishment over the past years, which claimed many lives among them, came to naught. Thaksin simply used them as his stepladder to power..."

This of course was obvious from day one.

Now Thaksin has opened Pandora's little Red Box

and is finding them hard to put back in it.

This too was totally predictable from day one.

Edited May 10, 2012 by animatic

[hellodolly]

Where do they get these reporters from? The Democrats will take the Red Shirts 'under their wing'. I don't think so. What the Reds need is their own political party untainted by the corruption of the Thaksin clan. The Reds have to learn to stand on their own feet, without Thaksin's stolen funding - and then maybe they'll garner 5-10 percent of the national vote.

I agree the reds will have to learn to stand on there own two feet.

the problem with that is they have no one qualified who believes as the average red shirt does.

the ones with the knowledge are using it to line their pockets the same as the other knowledgeable people in other parties.

Unfortunately their is no one with the knowledge and the integrity to fill the shoes as a leader for a new party of red shirts.

[Moruya]

It has always been obvious that the Grass Roots workers had hitched their cart to the wrong horse. Maybe 2 wrong horses - Red Shirts and PTP

I use the term Grass Roots because the "Red Shirts" are too disparate a collection of groups from communism to republicanism to violence to God knows what and not all grass roots workers are Red Shirts

Thatksin was NEVER going to give them what they wanted. He was the wrong leader for them. Still is. But who do they have in their ranks that can fill the boots?

In my simple eyes the situation remains the same. Country people have little in the way of good jobs available to them. It's either farming or factories that depend on farming such as turning sugar cane into sugar. They have what most countries would view as an inadequate education for the modern world. They provide the labour in the farms and the cities. The middle class with the money can give their kids a reasonable education and the kids get the better jobs. The "Upper" class provide the companies that can be used for governmental contracts. There are no Thai multinationals - just industries such as rice, chicken, tapioca, prawns etc that export.

Does the government have a plan to improve the lot of it's people such as South Korea or Taiwan? No

[dru2]

Where do they get these reporters from? The Democrats will take the Red Shirts 'under their wing'. I don't think so. What the Reds need is their own political party untainted by the corruption of the Thaksin clan. The Reds have to learn to stand on their own feet, without Thaksin's stolen funding - and then maybe they'll garner 5-10 percent of the national vote.

I agree the reds will have to learn to stand on there own two feet.

the problem with that is they have no one qualified who believes as the average red shirt does.

the ones with the knowledge are using it to line their pockets the same as the other knowledgeable people in other parties.

Unfortunately their is no one with the knowledge and the integrity to fill the shoes as a leader for a new party of red shirts.

I agree one hundred percent.

[h90]

Does the world in general associate Red with communism?

In general, yes.

Red China, The Soviet Union and its satellites, Mao's Little Red Book, "A red under every bed" (McCarthyism.)

Sister Thida and her husband Weng Tojirakarn are communists.

Manchester United, Arsenal & Liverpool are not.

They are opportunist, greedy communists. A real communist who believes to do good for the people by being communist can't support Thaksin who is the worst nightmare of a communist.

A commie must demand to nationalize Thaksins wealth and not giving him back the tax money.....A lot of his majesties projects of self sufficient communities are much closer to the communist thinking than all the things Thaksin did to make the poor more depending of the big companies.

They really must read their own books again....

Everyone is equal (big brother Thaksin can not earn more money or be treated different than the lowest labor)

Everyone gets the same chances (no family clans, free education)

Taking away the money from the rich (not giving them more taxpayer money)

Nationalizing companies, not privatizing as Thaksin did.

[h90]

Where do they get these reporters from? The Democrats will take the Red Shirts 'under their wing'. I don't think so. What the Reds need is their own political party untainted by the corruption of the Thaksin clan. The Reds have to learn to stand on their own feet, without Thaksin's stolen funding - and then maybe they'll garner 5-10 percent of the national vote.

I agree the reds will have to learn to stand on there own two feet.

the problem with that is they have no one qualified who believes as the average red shirt does.

the ones with the knowledge are using it to line their pockets the same as the other knowledgeable people in other parties.

Unfortunately their is no one with the knowledge and the integrity to fill the shoes as a leader for a new party of red shirts.

Red shirts with ideology are maybe 3000-5000 people concentrated in Bangkok. All that red villages and structur: I think 70-80 % will brake apart if Thaksin cuts the funds.

95 % will brake apart if a new hero (no matter if left, right, monarchist etc etc) start financing them.

[billd766]

"...To the red shirts, Thaksin and Yingluck have already caved in. The fighting against the establishment over the past years, which claimed many lives among them, came to naught. Thaksin simply used them as his stepladder to power..."

This of course was obvious from day one.

Now Thaksin has opened Pandora's little Red Box

and is finding them hard to put back in it.

This too was totally predictable from day one.

All that was left in Pandora's box after the evils had escaped was hope.

[jayboy]

"...To the red shirts, Thaksin and Yingluck have already caved in. The fighting against the establishment over the past years, which claimed many lives among them, came to naught. Thaksin simply used them as his stepladder to power..."

This of course was obvious from day one.

Now Thaksin has opened Pandora's little Red Box

and is finding them hard to put back in it.

This too was totally predictable from day one.

It may be obvious to you now but for a long time the line of the usual suspects was that the red shirts had no meaningful agenda and were simply to a lesser or greater degree unwitting agents of Thaksin's ambition.Now even the most reactionary factions don't claim this nonsense to be true.Can we expect an admission of error from the motley band of reactionaries? Don't hold your breath.

Incidentally I also find it ironic that the PAD admirers have adopted the Pandora's box image in respect of Thaksin and the reds.I pointed this out and used the image years ago.Thaksin is not an admirable person and his significance is his catalytic effect.The box has been opened (by Thaksin) and Thai politics has changed forever., and not in a way that unelected elites, the corrupt generals, monopolist businesses and the frightened and myopic middle class are going to find very comfortable

[bigbamboo]

New elite talking with the old elite.

If anyone thought that would never happen then they were seriously misguided, deluded or more likely just plain naive.

It will be very interesting for Thai politics if the Redshirts can organise themselves into something visibly different to PT.

Posted with Thaivisa App http://apps.thaivisa.com

The redshirts still don't get it, do they?

The vast majority of them just want a fair deal for the people. The PT politicians just want a good deal, as many as possible in fact, for themselves.

Under PT the redshirts will never be anything more than footsoldiers.

[JohnAllan]

They are just coming to realise that Thaksin used them?

The dictionary definition for elite is simply that viewed as the best, in a society or organisation; elitism, seeing oneself as superior. The Shinawatras' fit the second definition, both because money creates its own elite, and because history has it that they were born into the elite.

[JohnAllan]

Does the world in general associate Red with communism?

No; with Socialism.

[JohnAllan]

If the Reds do form their own political partywouldn't the likely outcome be that a few who manage to get themselves elected to Parliament suddenly become unusually rich? That they will ditch their principles, and supporters, and become a subset of the phu yai fraternity? Think of the Kinnocks, the Blairs, 'Two Jags' Prescott, millionaire Scargill, Thaksin himself, Jatuporn and his cohorts, and many US trades union leaders who got into bed with the Mafia.

The Reds leaders want power - and money - and if they get a handle on those, are likely to conveniently forget the ignorant needy rabble who helped them climb the ladder for the price of a few hundred baht and a tee shirt. I doubt that they will be any more committed to educating the masses than those who have gone before them. Would not an intelligent, knowledgeable and thinking electorate present a danger to them and their prospects, and the status quo that they aspire to be part of? I believe that it will take a political tsunami to turnThailand around so that it becomes a true and honest democracy and the odds on such an event occuring are very long indeed. I cannot envisage the tumbrils bumping their way through the streets of BKK lined with the 'sans culottes' and Madame Guillotine kept busy.

Ah! Thaksin might have made his money - he certainly lost a great deal in his early days - through politics, but not as a politician. And Scargill was never an MP. Even he wouldn't have stooped that low.

But I concur entirely with your comments on what would result from having an intelligent, knowledgeable and thinking electorate. I have said that many times, though it would be a danger to all politicians, not just the PTP.

Edited May 10, 2012 by JohnAllan

[siampolee]

There was a '' grass roots party '' in existence until it was Hi-jacked by Thaksin and his cronies to further their own agenda and supply them with disposable pawns in a power struggle aimed at enriching one family and their brown nosed acolytes.

Now it seems as if the genie is out of the bottle and there may be trouble ahead for the paymaster and his cronies, power is being lusted after by those who were duped by the glib tongue of Thaksin and co.

However independence comes at a price and one wonders whether the likes of Jutuporn and his fiends friends are able to manage on less money and perhaps no Parliamentary protection in the not too distant future ..

There may well be a lesson to be learnt by Jutuporn and co. from the from the ''reward'' received by one Emest Roehm.

One needs to be careful when kicking ones way to the top, because when one falls old enemies and dubiuos friends remember those kicks.

That said it might do well for Thaksin and his cronies to remember that fact too.. ..

Edited May 10, 2012 by siampolee