Gold Prices To Continue To Drop, Says Expert

[cdmtdm]

a would suggest more than a few currencies ..its a house of cards at the moment ..people are taking safety in the USD thats how bad things are ... the USD is worth less than dunny paper.... for me oil is a safer bet ...

[Jayman]

Oh dear more incorrect info and doomsayers.If gold were an inflation hedge why did the inflation adjusted price of gold fall from almost $1850 in 1980 to $352 in 2001? Over that time period 21 years, it lost over 80% of its value. You'd have been well out of pocket then and still would be now even at this speculation fueled high.

there... there Xylophone, let's not get carried away. gold reached 850 not 1850 and its low during the afore-mentioned period was ~265

Lol. . He's using the same "inflation adjusted" numbers that you just used A few days back in the other gold thread and now you ate telling him not to get carried away.. . Wasn't it you that kept trying top prove that we have been in a 32 year declining gold market . That is to say you said gold has been going down for the past 32 years.

[midas]

You should be able to watch the segment on the ABC online and make up your own mind, He backed up His argument with a couple of Stats.

My gut feeling and I have been watching the gold market on a daily basis for 20 years as its a big part of my business, is that the World is not going to come crashing down and that He is right, Gold is over valued and will slide over the next 6 months. If I am wrong I guess I am ok as I have a fair whack of gold in stock.

Now the guy who wrote this article below isn't an economist either although he does have an economics degree but he left the world of finance after being with Lehman Brothers and now writes macro pieces on economic, social and geopolitical topics..

He explains how “We would be looking at a global Zimbabwe scenario ” and “ the risk is likely to be as great if not greater than anything happening in Europe “

He discusses 2 possible scenarios whose “outcomes would be massively bullish for precious metals “ look at the Chart of the Chinese Yuan

http://libertyblitzk...er-have-a-plan/

Edited May 20, 2012 by midas

[Jayman]

It's each to his own and very much up to you.

For those with an interest in gold markets check out www.gata.org

(Mods: It's a non-profit making organisation, so not a commercial link)

notwithstanding the fact that "GATA" provides some interesting reports, the organisation is well known as being utterly biased pro-gold as well as providing an outlet for hair raising conspiracy theories and the spread of gloom&doom reports. for the record:

"The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee seeks financial and moral support from gold mining companies, investors in gold mining companies and physical gold, and people who seek to preserve gold's vital role in the world's economy."

...incorporated in Delaware (most people have certain thoughts when they hear "Delaware Inc."

Many banks in the US is incorporated in Delaware due to the loose laws. That is why they all carry a Delaware address.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delaware_General_Corporation_Law

" Delaware is well known as a corporate haven. Over 50% ofU.S. publicly-traded corporations and 60% of the Fortune 500 companies are incorporated in that state"

Edited May 20, 2012 by Jayman

[letitbe]

when experts say something do the opposite it nearly always works so buy gold like crazy its going up

[letitbe]

The ship seems to be sinking pretty rapidly in Europe.

Those of us buying gold are not doing so to 'make money', we just want to maintain our purchasing power during the years ahead.

-some ships might be sinking in Europe but Europe won't sinking.

-correct is that a certain unknown percentage of those who buy gold are not doing so to make money. logic, markets and market figures however prove clearly that the majority owns gold or trades gold for no other reason than to make money.

We own gold and silver as an insurance, to hopefully preserve purchasing power and also hop to make not money but be able to swap it when time is right for more property and shares cars etc than the same amount of gold will get today but its mostly a insurance policy> However anyone who keeps fiat money is IMO mad and please dont repeat you cant eat gold you simply convert some of it back as needs be to buy what you want/need

[letitbe]

I was watching a show this morning in Australia and they had an economist on, His advice is gold is way over valued and not a great way to hold your investment let alone make money........I really don't know, trying to guess the gold price is a mugs game and this was told to me by a bullion dealer some 10 years ago.....I have my jewellery store on the market at the moment if anybody wants to buy gold, you can buy a shop full.

if your offering stock at spot PM me ill buy I sold around 240 kg of silver when i shut my last jewellery and of course you only get a little under spot. WIsh id kept it now

[letitbe]

Marcus Padley and it was on ABC Inside Business, I have a mate who is big in investing in metals, His focus moved away from gold and has been on the white metals, Palladium, Platinum and Rhodium.

well good luck to him IMO he will regret it

[rakman]

u serious ..its that easy? get rid of obama and away we go ?

Not quite that simple, but put a President in who leads with an upbeat philosophy, removes restrictive policies, executive orders and supports an environment toward business creation, works with the Congress to simply tax law for the next 5 years or more and the economy will pull out as it has many, many times.

From your response, I'd say you weren't around in the 70's where the Japanese could hock just Tokyo and buy all the public land in the US. Unfortunately they did hock Tokyo and the rest of the country, then their real estate went bust. Fortunately, they only bought some prime real estate, like Pebble Beach and Rockefeller Center, then had to sell later at a huge loss. Unfortunately, their recovery plan hasn't done much for 40 years.

[w11guy]

And its gone up 400 Baht today already...maybe he needs to polish his crystal ball

perhaps you need to polish yours? one baht weight has gone up today by 100 Baht currency because the Thai Baht weakened since yesterday vs. USD and because gold is quoted in USD. sorry to spoil a positive story with negative facts.

But this is Thailand, so the price of gold has gone up. Thai people don't care that gold is priced in USD. What matters to them is the value to them in Thai baht.

When people buy things they are only interested in the price in their own currency, (expect for special circumstances).

[w11guy]

The ship seems to be sinking pretty rapidly in Europe.

Those of us buying gold are not doing so to 'make money', we just want to maintain our purchasing power during the years ahead.

-some ships might be sinking in Europe but Europe won't sinking.

-correct is that a certain unknown percentage of those who buy gold are not doing so to make money. logic, markets and market figures however prove clearly that the majority owns gold or trades gold for no other reason than to make money.

We own gold and silver as an insurance, to hopefully preserve purchasing power and also hop to make not money but be able to swap it when time is right for more property and shares cars etc than the same amount of gold will get today but its mostly a insurance policy> However anyone who keeps fiat money is IMO mad and please dont repeat you cant eat gold you simply convert some of it back as needs be to buy what you want/need

I've kept fiat money for over 50 years and never had a problem with it. My parents have been using it for over 70 years and never had a problem with it either. Maybe you're a touch paranoid.

So how do you buy food, drinks, pay rent, etc? Do you carry gold bars around with you or do you use fiat money? I bet you use fiat money just like everyone else. All talk.

Edited May 21, 2012 by w11guy

[Bpuumike]

And its gone up 400 Baht today already...maybe he needs to polish his crystal ball

perhaps you need to polish yours? one baht weight has gone up today by 100 Baht currency because the Thai Baht weakened since yesterday vs. USD and because gold is quoted in USD. sorry to spoil a positive story with negative facts.

But this is Thailand, so the price of gold has gone up. Thai people don't care that gold is priced in USD. What matters to them is the value to them in Thai baht.

When people buy things they are only interested in the price in their own currency, (expect for special circumstances).

The Thais, quite rightly, consider gold a store of value and the same applies in the currency of wherever in the world you live.

[midas]

I've kept fiat money for over 50 years and never had a problem with it. My parents have been using it for over 70 years and never had a problem with it either. Maybe you're a touch paranoid.

So how do you buy food, drinks, pay rent, etc? Do you carry gold bars around with you or do you use fiat money? I bet you use fiat money just like everyone else. All talk.

And maybe you are a touch naive ?

Edited May 21, 2012 by midas

[HardenedSoul]

Gold bears are completely missing the point.

Everyone knows we are in a deflationary spiral but this is not what one should be basing their decisions about gold on.

It is the central banks' response to deflation that has and will continue to drive gold's rise.

The value of paper money against gold will continue to fall for as long as the global central banks view the printing press as their weapon of choice against deflation so excuse me if I discount the opinion of some hack talking head on ABC Inside Business.

[Naam]

And its gone up 400 Baht today already...maybe he needs to polish his crystal ball

perhaps you need to polish yours? one baht weight has gone up today by 100 Baht currency because the Thai Baht weakened since yesterday vs. USD and because gold is quoted in USD. sorry to spoil a positive story with negative facts.

But this is Thailand, so the price of gold has gone up. Thai people don't care that gold is priced in USD. What matters to them is the value to them in Thai baht.

When people buy things they are only interested in the price in their own currency, (expect for special circumstances).

it's not your crystal ball but your your reading glasses seem to need polishing. i assume you can read that i posted "has gone up today by 100 Baht..." so what part of "up" is it you don't understand?

and if you are not capable to understand the bearing of USD/THB on the Thai gold price expressed in Thai Baht then be happy, remain ignorant and keep on lecturing others what "Thai people in Thailand care about".

[Jayman]

So glad we now have 2 threads where Lt can come and talk down and belittle those that have anything positive to say about the yellow metal.

Think I will start a "where are bonds going in this market" thread so I can thread crap on how worthless bonds are in today's market and express how idiotic it must be for anyone to consider this a good investment giving the historically low yields they are paying in developed nations.

[Naam]

it's interesting to see little poor boys trying to compensate their frustration with irrelevant trolling even when the posting they are referring to states clearly "two plus two equals four"

[Jayman]

it's interesting to see little poor boys trying to compensate their frustration with irrelevant trolling even when the posting they are referring to states clearly "two plus two equals four"

Well you are certainly a big rich man Lt. Won't argue with that. It's been well established by you.

Edited May 21, 2012 by Jayman

[rick75]

Midas in regards to our posts about you not finding an economist who thinks gold will drop....I was at a business function yesterday and one of the keynote speakers was an economist, I baled Him up and asked Him about the price of gold and where its going, the gents name is Kim Houghton and not only does he have doctorate in economics but His original calling was in geology so this guy is certainly qualified to give an opinion. He said that gold is certainly overpriced and should drop......but..... human nature is something that ways heavily and as such where gold should be and where it ends up are two very different things....but His feelings were it would drop.

So there you have it a genuine economist with an opinion on gold.

[midas]

Midas in regards to our posts about you not finding an economist who thinks gold will drop....I was at a business function yesterday and one of the keynote speakers was an economist, I baled Him up and asked Him about the price of gold and where its going, the gents name is Kim Houghton and not only does he have doctorate in economics but His original calling was in geology so this guy is certainly qualified to give an opinion. He said that gold is certainly overpriced and should drop......but..... human nature is something that ways heavily and as such where gold should be and where it ends up are two very different things....but His feelings were it would drop.

So there you have it a genuine economist with an opinion on gold.

thanks but Marc Faber is also an internationally known economist with a good

track record and he says the same about the short term - but

i dont care about the short term because gold is my insurance against

a collapsing fiat

regarding the long term Faber says the opposite.... so there you go

It just proves the point that in the end only YOU and I can make

our decisons as to whether we should hold gold or not

in preparation for what is to come.......................

" 2. Gold and Gold Stocks–Continue to accumulate gold. The best way is to dollar cost average every month. Gold may decline in the short-term, but the long term trend is up. Faber also mentions that gold remains undervalued compared to the egregious amount of fiat money which has been printed by central banks worldwide. If the US ever needed to back the dollar with gold, it would take a price of $7500 per ounce of gold to accomplish this. Thus, gold remains an attractive asset. Furthermore, gold is still under owned by individuals and institutional investors. Regarding gold stocks, Faber is buying Newmont and Barrick."

http://moneytalks.ne...tes-a-more.html

Edited May 24, 2012 by midas

[rick75]

No....you said you are yet to see an economist with an negative opinion on gold....I am giving you one, I don't give a hoot what you do....you shot Me down in flames over Padley, all I am doing is providing a counter view point. If you are blind to alternative view points up to you, but you may well just do your cash.

Like I said before gold goes up I win, gold goes down I win.

[midas]

No....you said you are yet to see an economist with an negative opinion on gold....I am giving you one, I don't give a hoot what you do....you shot Me down in flames over Padley, all I am doing is providing a counter view point. If you are blind to alternative view points up to you, but you may well just do your cash.

Like I said before gold goes up I win, gold goes down I win.

if you look back at my post I did not say that at all

I said I have never seen an economist who only thinks of gold in terms of making money

as opposed to an insurance policy against economic calamity. There is a big difference

I am not blind to alternative points of view but based on history alone

including what happened in the Weimar Republic it seems pretty logical

how this will play out no matter what any talking heads say

[Naam]

Thus, gold remains an attractive asset. Furthermore, gold is still under owned by individuals and institutional investors. Regarding gold stocks, Faber is buying Newmont and Barrick."

yada yada yada yakety-yak...

for the record: Faber announced and has bought Newmont and Barrick early this year and achieved a loss of minus 20%! the same applied to various other calls Faber made last year which i pointed out several months ago.

[Naam]

The best way is to dollar cost average every month.

the best way an ignorant investor dupes himself is to "cost average" when asset prices are falling! he buys something for 100 and loses 20, buys an additional amount at 80 and loses 15, then buys a third time at 65 and TARAAAAAAH... is happy that his holding has cost him "only" 82 whereas the actual value is 65

[churchill]

The best way is to dollar cost average every month.

the best way an ignorant investor dupes himself is to "cost average" when asset prices are falling! he buys something for 100 and loses 20, buys an additional amount at 80 and loses 15, then buys a third time at 65 and TARAAAAAAH... is happy that his holding has cost him "only" 82 whereas the actual value is 65

It is easy to criticise after the fact .... not all your investments ( nor mine ) have been well timed .. I remember your paniced posts on the other gold thread as your purchased gold miner lost price and you sold for a loss ..

and a logical way to invest , unless one is certain of price directions in the short term , is to average in as prices fall ... and also know when to take profits as prices rise ..

Edited May 24, 2012 by churchill

[Naam]

and a logical way to invest , unless one is certain of price directions in the short term , is to average in as prices fall...

different approaches to invest exist. some people are averaging when prices fall, i sell to these people, sometimes with a loss, and make them happy. as simple as that.

Edited May 24, 2012 by Naam

[Naam]

It is easy to criticise after the fact .... not all your investments ( nor mine ) have been well timed .. I remember your paniced posts on the other gold thread as your purchased gold miner lost price and you sold for a loss ..

-i did not criticise but described a fact which you confirmed.

-i hardly ever panic (except when threatened by my wife ) and i did not lose a single penny on my excursion into three gold stocks but made a nice bundle.

-of course i made losses quite often and of course i have sold quite often positions with a loss, sometimes with a huge big loss.

-only a few days ago i sold a single position with a loss of nearly 90,000 dollars (US$ not Zimbabwe$) because the drop was too fast to act combined with my completely wrong or rather stupid evaluation of a certain situation.

-fact is that until now i always made more profits than losses. it's the bottom line that counts and nothing else.

p.s. stop inventing and posting bullshit and come up with facts or shut up!

[Huayrat]

Haha Arumcia mak mak ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[yoshiwara]

I have no problem with gold traders. They are playing the markets and have no limitations to either buying or selling. And then there are those who suddenly re-materialise as 'investors' for the long term to excuse their losses. And then there are the gold bugs who are 'all in' advising everybody to buy even at 1900+ and then (there's more?) there's the nutty uber-gold bugs who have bags of coins under their mattresses. The reality that none but the traders are happy to face is that gold has become a volatile asset and hit bear trade territory this last month. It has not been a place of safety in a contracting world economy the last 6 months. According to the gold bugs, gold is meant to appreciate against the US$ which is supposedly printing, but it hasn't recently has it? All they are left with is their usual conspiracy theories and how they wail when a gold trader calls it down. A 20% dive and no dividend. Fantastic.

[Bpuumike]

It seems there is an unbridgeable gap between those who see the arguments for and against buying gold, silver and other PM's as an alternative to the 'dunny paper' US$, UK£, Euro, etc.

Hopefully those undecided have been given some food and links for thought.

I think on this thread we are not discussing trading gold, which involves 'paper' gold, we mean buying and holding physical gold (and silver, etc) for future- proofing our purchasing power.

Nobody can predict any market bottom to perfection, you have to set a target price you yourself are happy to buy at. Me? I am adding gold and silver with all spare funds right now.

Naturally, others will not agree

It is interesting in itself how long this thread continues to run and generate more involvement.

As I said in a much earlier post "Each to his own and up to you"