Flood Crisis This Year? We'll Know By End-July

[ResX]

122% of capacity, mmhhh, would it not overflow permanently or is this a thai thing ?

from Wiki

" Pasak Jolasid Dam - storage capacity is 785 million cubic meter of water at normal water level, with a maximum capacity of 960 million cubic meters."

960 is 122% of 785, so they are keeping this dam at max. level. There is 6.7MW hydro station and I assume they are running it at full power??

What gets really interesting is " The dam also decreases problems of water management in Bangkok by allowing more flood control, as the Pa Sak river was one of the main sources of flooding in the Bangkok metropolitan area."

<deleted>?

as higher the level as more electric, but 6.7 MW sounds very small to me.

That's not it in the picture! It is a wide (~5km) and shallow (31.5 or 36.5m) earth wall dam, close to the confluence with the CP and nor that far from BKK. Both sources quote ~6.7MW.

But why is it so full NOW?

A sign of excessive released from the North.

[GeorgeO]

It seems that they have already waited too long to discharge the high levels from the dams. Now that large quantities are building up, we have the same scenario arising as we saw last year.

I agree that the politicians should stay out of this and let the experts decide how much should be released to avoid major inundations, but I am also very concerned about what has actually been done sine last year to avoid a similar inundation this year.

Yingluck promises no major flooding again. Oh really? And that promise is based on what exactly?

We'll know by the end of July when several thousand homes are underwater...! And then what? "oh, we couldn't possibly have foreseen this....!!"..... (b*****ks)

[Bagwan]

while I hate to wish misery on anyone I think if it happens and other things this bunch of clowns ruin maybe just maybe enough Thais will start to begin to understand they have voted for people totally incompetent, not interested in them at all, incapable of running anything, totally corrupt and a laughing stock for anyone with 1/2 a brain here.

It makes the idiots running europe and USA seem like geniuses

Im waitng for the day when the decent Thais stop simply taking a few hundred baht for their vote and start to understand how taksin and his clan have made them willing slaves and that they will continue to be slaves for ever while Taksin rules.

It is a well known fact that the only people who know how to govern a country and its economy are taxi drivers and gentlemen's hairdressers.

[Bagwan]

It seems that they have already waited too long to discharge the high levels from the dams. Now that large quantities are building up, we have the same scenario arising as we saw last year.

I agree that the politicians should stay out of this and let the experts decide how much should be released to avoid major inundations, but I am also very concerned about what has actually been done sine last year to avoid a similar inundation this year.

Yingluck promises no major flooding again. Oh really? And that promise is based on what exactly?

Good ponts.

Those with a knowledge of the French language will see the humour in your typing error.

[OzMick]

from Wiki

" Pasak Jolasid Dam - storage capacity is 785 million cubic meter of water at normal water level, with a maximum capacity of 960 million cubic meters."

960 is 122% of 785, so they are keeping this dam at max. level. There is 6.7MW hydro station and I assume they are running it at full power??

What gets really interesting is " The dam also decreases problems of water management in Bangkok by allowing more flood control, as the Pa Sak river was one of the main sources of flooding in the Bangkok metropolitan area."

<deleted>?

as higher the level as more electric, but 6.7 MW sounds very small to me.

That's not it in the picture! It is a wide (~5km) and shallow (31.5 or 36.5m) earth wall dam, close to the confluence with the CP and nor that far from BKK. Both sources quote ~6.7MW.

But why is it so full NOW?

A sign of excessive released from the North.

NO! Have a look at a map, this is a separate river AFAIK no upstream dams.

[philw]

while I hate to wish misery on anyone I think if it happens and other things this bunch of clowns ruin maybe just maybe enough Thais will start to begin to understand they have voted for people totally incompetent, not interested in them at all, incapable of running anything, totally corrupt and a laughing stock for anyone with 1/2 a brain here.

It makes the idiots running europe and USA seem like geniuses

Im waitng for the day when the decent Thais stop simply taking a few hundred baht for their vote and start to understand how taksin and his clan have made them willing slaves and that they will continue to be slaves for ever while Taksin rules.

It is a well known fact that the only people who know how to govern a country and its economy are taxi drivers and gentlemen's hairdressers.

Well said and nice that you omitted the obvious.

Good one.

It's always reassuring to know that our fellow farangs on here know more than the professionals at the RTID, who have got several decades of documentation, data and experience.

[Skywalker69]

Didnt he get the memo? Yingluck has already stated.............

PM Yingluck promised no severe flooding in Thailand in 2012

If she promise something, it´s time to get really worried.

[Skywalker69]

Maybe Yingluck could ask Thaksins (medium) look at his stars, the position of the planets to determine if the floods will return.

Actually it is the moon and its influence on the tides.

Bet you didn't know that when the sun, moon and earth are aligned there is a gravitational impact.

I am sure he knows. But I don´t thing the PM knows.

[MaxLee]

In Charngwattana is already some flooding in some areas, as I stay at my friend's house. So early this season I'd just say its already starting. Never rely on the the information of Thai politicians or so called "Water Management experts" because they lie about their a$$es and you witnessed what happened last year,...

I think it's gonna flood for sure. Maybe even worse, as some locals from Nakorn Pathom have told me half a year ago when I was teaching English there.

[GentlemanJim]

- Subcommittee chairman Royol Jitdon said yesterday that by the end of July relevant agencies would be able to determine the amount of water and rainfall for this wet season.

But Yingluck has already promised there will be no floods this year!

[ginjag]

If they can make the rain, then why can't they disperse the clouds ???? or move them on. If you can move the river on with a thousand boats anything is possible.

[OzMick]

while I hate to wish misery on anyone I think if it happens and other things this bunch of clowns ruin maybe just maybe enough Thais will start to begin to understand they have voted for people totally incompetent, not interested in them at all, incapable of running anything, totally corrupt and a laughing stock for anyone with 1/2 a brain here.

It makes the idiots running europe and USA seem like geniuses

Im waitng for the day when the decent Thais stop simply taking a few hundred baht for their vote and start to understand how taksin and his clan have made them willing slaves and that they will continue to be slaves for ever while Taksin rules.

It is a well known fact that the only people who know how to govern a country and its economy are taxi drivers and gentlemen's hairdressers.

Well said and nice that you omitted the obvious.

Good one.

It's always reassuring to know that our fellow farangs on here know more than the professionals at the RTID, who have got several decades of documentation, data and experience.

And a fat lot of good it did them last year! Have you not read the prior posts?

There is a dam close to Bangkok full to overflow and absolutely useless at the moment for flood mitigation, that the expert claims to be "most worried about". The river system it sits on is described as "the Pa Sak river was one of the main sources of flooding in the Bangkok metropolitan area."

But Yingluk says no severe flooding, so forget about it. If you can remain calm while everybody else is panicking, you probably don't understand the situation.

[ResX]

"NO! Have a look at a map, this is a separate river AFAIK no upstream dams".

Does it mean the discharge from that dam will never get to the main CP river, eventually? If it is located along separate river then it has no relationship with the last year's flood. If this is the case I can't imagine how it's storage can increase to 122% for a very long time. The last explaination that I can offer is the dam has no sluice gate except a free flow spillway. Due to some reasons two of it machines are put under long outages.

[gand]

- Subcommittee chairman Royol Jitdon said yesterday that by the end of July relevant agencies would be able to determine the amount of water and rainfall for this wet season.

But Yingluck has already promised there will be no floods this year!

I trust Yingluck, she hasn't been wrong yet?

[steenasger]

It seems that they have already waited too long to discharge the high levels from the dams. Now that large quantities are building up, we have the same scenario arising as we saw last year.

I agree that the politicians should stay out of this and let the experts decide how much should be released to avoid major inundations, but I am also very concerned about what has actually been done sine last year to avoid a similar inundation this year.

Yingluck promises no major flooding again. Oh really? And that promise is based on what exactly?

In fact RID/Egat has since last year carefully managed to release lots of water from the dams, so the dams now are less than 50 % full. If RID/Egat over the next two months can manage to keep the water storage in the dams to 50-60 % of their capacities only, the risk of later overflow from the dams (= major flooding) will be very low. But this requires that non-experts do not interfere in their release management every time a small downstream area become flooded for a limited time during June-July.

So far so good. In fact the total flood reserve volume from Sirkit & Bhumibol of 14 billion cubic meters, to me is too big. But if there is no conflict may arise with the other stake holders such as irrigation department, domestic water supply, EGAT etc. then there is no issue to keep the margin such as this one.

Now, you are entering more critical stage of flood control startegy i.e. to preserve the margin- Second phase. If I can suggest it is suffient for Bhumibol and Sirkit to have the total margin of 7 billion cubic meters. I hope I don't miss any important fact about these two dams and their catchment areas to come up this suggestion. The most important thing this margin shall be preserved until the 7-day highest intensity of flood flow strikes or until mid of Nov, whichever comes first.

The reason I used 7 billion cubic meters as the anticipated flood waters for Bhumibol and Sirkit is due to the fact that average annual rainfall for these two dams is not more than 20 billion cubic meters. In this case reasonable estimate for the most extreme 7-day flood that has average recurrent interval (ARI) of 1 -in-50 years (or 2% probabibilty) could not be more than 7 billion cubic meters.

I have mentioned some months ago that Thailand has to have ability to capture at least between 15-20 billion cubic meters of 7-day flood waters in order to entirely beat the most extreme flood with ARI 1-in-50 years. Therefore, the other says 10 billion cubic meters storage capacity shall be placed in the middle and towards the end of the CH river. Relying on the dams in North alone may not be strategically correct.

Let us see later whether there is a need to talk about 3rd and 4th phase. But I can tell you in advanced about the 5th phase. Pack all your belongings. Ready to move to higher grounds. To the most extreme case flood cannot avoided. We can only mitigate and control it.

You mention above:"If I can suggest it is suffient for Bhumibol and Sirkit to have the total margin of 7 billion cubic meters."

Last year on August 1 the margin was very close to your suggested 7 billion cubic meters, and that was obviously not enough to avoid excessive spills from both dams by September-October. I would rather suggest a margin of 9-10 billion m3 in the beginning of August (about 5.5 for Bhumiphol plus 4 for Sirikit)

[OzMick]

"NO! Have a look at a map, this is a separate river AFAIK no upstream dams".

Does it mean the discharge from that dam will never get to the main CP river, eventually? If it is located along separate river then it has no relationship with the last year's flood. If this is the case I can't imagine how it's storage can increase to 122% for a very long time. The last explaination that I can offer is the dam has no sluice gate except a free flow spillway. Due to some reasons two of it machines are put under long outages.

It only takes a couple of minutes to google and inform yourself. I can only find the one dam on the Pa Sak river, so it is not "A sign of excessive released from the North."

The confluence is at Ayuthya.

"Due to some reasons two of it machines are put under long outages." Is this a fact or a surmise?

[ResX]

It seems that they have already waited too long to discharge the high levels from the dams. Now that large quantities are building up, we have the same scenario arising as we saw last year.

I agree that the politicians should stay out of this and let the experts decide how much should be released to avoid major inundations, but I am also very concerned about what has actually been done sine last year to avoid a similar inundation this year.

Yingluck promises no major flooding again. Oh really? And that promise is based on what exactly?

In fact RID/Egat has since last year carefully managed to release lots of water from the dams, so the dams now are less than 50 % full. If RID/Egat over the next two months can manage to keep the water storage in the dams to 50-60 % of their capacities only, the risk of later overflow from the dams (= major flooding) will be very low. But this requires that non-experts do not interfere in their release management every time a small downstream area become flooded for a limited time during June-July.

So far so good. In fact the total flood reserve volume from Sirkit & Bhumibol of 14 billion cubic meters, to me is too big. But if there is no conflict may arise with the other stake holders such as irrigation department, domestic water supply, EGAT etc. then there is no issue to keep the margin such as this one.

Now, you are entering more critical stage of flood control startegy i.e. to preserve the margin- Second phase. If I can suggest it is suffient for Bhumibol and Sirkit to have the total margin of 7 billion cubic meters. I hope I don't miss any important fact about these two dams and their catchment areas to come up this suggestion. The most important thing this margin shall be preserved until the 7-day highest intensity of flood flow strikes or until mid of Nov, whichever comes first.

The reason I used 7 billion cubic meters as the anticipated flood waters for Bhumibol and Sirkit is due to the fact that average annual rainfall for these two dams is not more than 20 billion cubic meters. In this case reasonable estimate for the most extreme 7-day flood that has average recurrent interval (ARI) of 1 -in-50 years (or 2% probabibilty) could not be more than 7 billion cubic meters.

I have mentioned some months ago that Thailand has to have ability to capture at least between 15-20 billion cubic meters of 7-day flood waters in order to entirely beat the most extreme flood with ARI 1-in-50 years. Therefore, the other says 10 billion cubic meters storage capacity shall be placed in the middle and towards the end of the CH river. Relying on the dams in North alone may not be strategically correct.

Let us see later whether there is a need to talk about 3rd and 4th phase. But I can tell you in advanced about the 5th phase. Pack all your belongings. Ready to move to higher grounds. To the most extreme case flood cannot avoided. We can only mitigate and control it.

You mention above:"If I can suggest it is suffient for Bhumibol and Sirkit to have the total margin of 7 billion cubic meters."

Last year on August 1 the margin was very close to your suggested 7 billion cubic meters, and that was obviously not enough to avoid excessive spills from both dams by September-October. I would rather suggest a margin of 9-10 billion m3 in the beginning of August (about 5.5 for Bhumiphol plus 4 for Sirikit)

I tnink they failed miserably when execution of phase 2 of flood mitigation and control. Phase 1 is about to have the margin. Phase 2 is about to preserve the margin. What they should do was to carry out control releases using sluice gates eventhough the dams were not yet fully filled so that 7 billion cubic meter margin shall be preserved. I think it was not properly done. That is why one of the major dams in North was fully filled as early as in August 2011.

The dams in the North have to be regulated so that they could preserve the margin until the 7-day highest intensity rainfall strikes or until 15th Nov, whichever comes first.

Edited June 16, 2012 by ResX

[ResX]

"NO! Have a look at a map, this is a separate river AFAIK no upstream dams".

Does it mean the discharge from that dam will never get to the main CP river, eventually? If it is located along separate river then it has no relationship with the last year's flood. If this is the case I can't imagine how it's storage can increase to 122% for a very long time. The last explaination that I can offer is the dam has no sluice gate except a free flow spillway. Due to some reasons two of it machines are put under long outages.

It only takes a couple of minutes to google and inform yourself. I can only find the one dam on the Pa Sak river, so it is not "A sign of excessive released from the North."

The confluence is at Ayuthya.

"Due to some reasons two of it machines are put under long outages." Is this a fact or a surmise?

Excessive released from the North is a fact. I can prove it with figures later. Two machines under long outage is one of the possible explainataions besides bad design and operation of the dam. I can be wrong with this one.

In general it is normal to have 122% storage for some types of dam design or for a limited period such as 1-2 months. I don't expect this is case for the dam we are discussing.

[apetley]

- Subcommittee chairman Royol Jitdon said yesterday that by the end of July relevant agencies would be able to determine the amount of water and rainfall for this wet season.

But Yingluck has already promised there will be no floods this year!

I trust Yingluck, she hasn't been wrong yet?

Maybe because she rarely, if ever, has anything to say on anything relevant.

Sent from my GT-I9003 using Thaivisa Connect App

[ResX]

"NO! Have a look at a map, this is a separate river AFAIK no upstream dams".

Does it mean the discharge from that dam will never get to the main CP river, eventually? If it is located along separate river then it has no relationship with the last year's flood. If this is the case I can't imagine how it's storage can increase to 122% for a very long time. The last explaination that I can offer is the dam has no sluice gate except a free flow spillway. Due to some reasons two of it machines are put under long outages.

It only takes a couple of minutes to google and inform yourself. I can only find the one dam on the Pa Sak river, so it is not "A sign of excessive released from the North."

The confluence is at Ayuthya.

"Due to some reasons two of it machines are put under long outages." Is this a fact or a surmise?

I have googled it about 6 months ago. According to my finding I have drawn conclusion that Pasak Jolasid is discharging to the Chao Phraya eventually. When you said "No" for my post I had re affirm my conclusion. Naturally I just asked you if you know something that I don't.

About seven months ago both Bhumibol and Sirkit were fully filled. Today their storages are about 50% of what they were started up with. The net outflow from both dams is about 9 billion cubic meter assuming 50% capacity is measured based on total storage rather than live storage alone. I would estimate that the total raifall over the last 6 months for both dams are about at least 4 billion cubic meters. This estimate is done based on average annual rainfall for these two dam is about 15 billion cubic meters. More than half of this figure will be falling from June to Oct. To me October is better to be taken as the end of water year for flood management,

All in all the dams have discharged at least 13 billions cubic meters to date or at the rate of 716 cubic meters per second over the last 7 month. Average flows from these two dams is 482 cubic meters per second. We have excessive discharge by the order of close to 50%. When high flow rates is passed down stream over sustainable long duration, then it limits the safe discharges for dams located at the downstream. This is because high sustainable discharge rate will increase river water levels over the entire river stretch. As a result, it limits additional discharges to be put in before flash floods start to occur.

In general there is nothing wrong for discharging at that very high excessive rate if such strategy does not lead to serious flash floods and there will be enough water over the next water year in the case of the anticipated major flood event turns out to be the major drought event . However, I doubt this is the case for the current scenario. If we are assuming Pasak Jalosid (122% filled) is a collateral damage for such dams releases strategy, then I would say such strategy is not wise. As far as flood control is concern, having 1 billion storage margin at lower stream is about 1.25 times better than having the same margin at the upper stream. The main reason can be constructed around the fact that flood water moves from upper stream to lower stream. Not the other way around.

Edited June 20, 2012 by ResX

[Jezz]

Judging by the amount of rain already fallen in the north-east, which to me seems much the same as last year, If there's going to be a repeat of last year's disaster we'll know in a couple of weeks.

[Moruya]

More protests at Bang Khaen.

Compensation for flooding not been given as promised. Huge waits. Some people also complaining the local authorities are making it dependent on canvassing votes for PTP.

Haven't heard of anyone burning effigies of Burberry boots yet.

[rubl]

Thailand live Tuesday 17th of July #34:

"BKK and Samut Prakan ready to handle this year's flood

BANGKOK, 17 July 2012 (NNT) - Bangkok Deputy Governor Theerachon Manomaipiboon has revealed that the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) is collaborating with Samut Prakan province in an effort to prevent flooding this year

A discussion has been held between Mr. Theerachon and Mr. Chonsawat Asavahame, Chief of the Samut Prakan Provincial Administrative Organization, to establish a flood prevention system as more water is expected this year.

Mr. Theerachon said both Bangkok and Samut Prakan are now ready for the odds. He elaborated that giant water pumps have been installed at Suvarnabhumi Airport with a capacity to pump out water at the speed of 100 cubic meters per second while Chonlahan Phichit Pumping Stations 1 and 2 have 20 pumps altogether with a draining speed of 120 cubic meters per second.

These pumps have been obtained under the joint cooperation between the Royal Irrigation Department and Samut Prakan province to effectively keep the water situation under control.

The Deputy Bangkok Governor added that for the remaining dredging operations, such as those in Ladprao Canal, Bang Sue Canal and Bang Khen Canal, the government needs to follow up on their progress to make sure each canal will have enough room to hold the large amount of water during the rainy season."

[rubl]

Probably not really related, but here in Bangkok it has been raining heavily for about two hours now.

For all those stuck in traffic, stay cool and keep smiling

[h90]

Judging by the amount of rain already fallen in the north-east, which to me seems much the same as last year, If there's going to be a repeat of last year's disaster we'll know in a couple of weeks.

there is a webpage that compares the rain per month with the average in all areas.

Someone has the link?

[Thunder26]

there is a webpage that compares the rain per month with the average in all areas.

Someone has the link?

Here you are http://www.arcims.tmd.go.th/dailydata/yearRain.php

Check this as well http://www.arcims.tmd.go.th/dailydata/MonthRain.php

And this http://www.arcims.tmd.go.th/DailyDATA/

In my opinion so far looks good as the amount of rainfall in the North and North East was slightly above average, way less than last year, especially if we take June. Even July looks safe so far, even if it rains more than average in the centre of Thailand. August and September are critical and must be observed daily for possible major floods. For this year I predict less extended floods. In the centre the floods will be strictly along Chao Phraya river, especially during October and November (which is annual occurrence) when the volume of the river is at its highest and the high tides from the Sea. I don't see the last year floods happening again.

[h90]

there is a webpage that compares the rain per month with the average in all areas.

Someone has the link?

Here you are http://www.arcims.tm...ta/yearRain.php

Check this as well http://www.arcims.tm...a/MonthRain.php

And this http://www.arcims.tmd.go.th/DailyDATA/

In my opinion so far looks good as the amount of rainfall in the North and North East was slightly above average, way less than last year, especially if we take June. Even July looks safe so far, even if it rains more than average in the centre of Thailand. August and September are critical and must be observed daily for possible major floods. For this year I predict less extended floods. In the centre the floods will be strictly along Chao Phraya river, especially during October and November (which is annual occurrence) when the volume of the river is at its highest and the high tides from the Sea. I don't see the last year floods happening again.

yes May looked bad, but June good. So I complete agree at the moment...

[Thai at Heart]

there is a webpage that compares the rain per month with the average in all areas.

Someone has the link?

Here you are http://www.arcims.tmd.go.th/dailydata/yearRain.php

Check this as well http://www.arcims.tmd.go.th/dailydata/MonthRain.php

And this http://www.arcims.tmd.go.th/DailyDATA/

In my opinion so far looks good as the amount of rainfall in the North and North East was slightly above average, way less than last year, especially if we take June. Even July looks safe so far, even if it rains more than average in the centre of Thailand. August and September are critical and must be observed daily for possible major floods. For this year I predict less extended floods. In the centre the floods will be strictly along Chao Phraya river, especially during October and November (which is annual occurrence) when the volume of the river is at its highest and the high tides from the Sea. I don't see the last year floods happening again.

Last year Chiang mai was 50% over from march through June. Not same this year.