Flood crisis this year? We'll know by End-July

Anapat Deechuay

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Subcommittee chairman Royol Jitdon said yesterday that by the end of July relevant agencies would be able to determine the amount of water and rainfall for this wet season.

"I am most worried about the Pasak Jolasid Dam," he said. "Management of this dam is complicated."

Located in Lop Buri, the Pasak Jolasid Dam can hold up to 780 million cubic metres of water. For some years, though, the volume of water at this dam has been 122 per cent of its total capacity.

"We can't keep the water level in this dam too low either, otherwise the country won't have adequate water for the farming sector during the dry season next year," Royol pointed out.

He was speaking during a working trip to various provinces alongside Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

Last year, the worst floods in several decades hit Thailand hard, claiming hundreds of lives and causing massive economic damage.

Yingluck had travelled to many upstream, midstream and downstream provinces this week in a bid to follow up on the flood-prevention projects that her government launched in the wake of last year's severe inundation.

Royol said he was also worried about the Sirikit Dam because the volume of water in the dam had risen significantly.

"During the past two days, it discharged up to 32 million cubic metres of water per day," the water expert said. "I have asked the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand to lower the amount of discharged water to 17 million cubic metres per day."

He said if the volume of water discharged wasn't lowered, the Yom River could overflow and cause flooding.

As of yesterday, inundation had hit many provinces including Sukhothai.

Speaking in his capacity as the chief of the Water and Flood Management Committee, Science Minister Plodprasob Surassawadee said the water-management system for the Yom River basin had already been laid down.

"We will have real-time information. Early warnings can be issued one week in advance," he said.

He reckoned that in areas where many key rivers met, management would be quite difficult.

"We will try to achieve single-command management," Plodprasop promised.

As of now, Royol estimated that the rainfall would be lower this year when compared to 2011.

"This year, the rainfall should be at around 1,500mm," he said.

Deputy Transport Minister Chatchart Sithipan said his ministry was making preparations to protect the key area stretching from Bangkok to the Pasak Jolasid Dam around the Chao Phraya River from flooding.

"We will also do our best to protect the industrial estates in this area," he said. Last year, as many as seven industrial estates were submerged by raging flood water.

Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Yongyuth Wichaidit said provincial governors' performance in regards to the PMOC Flood Recovery project would count when he decided on their rotations.

-- The Nation 2012-06-15

Didnt he get the memo? Yingluck has already stated.............

PM Yingluck promised no severe flooding in Thailand in 2012

""Royol said he was also worried about the Sirikit Dam because the volume of water in the dam had risen significantly."During the past two days, it discharged up to 32 million cubic metres of water per day," the water expert said. "I have asked the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand to lower the amount of discharged water to 17 million cubic metres per day."He said if the volume of water discharged wasn't lowered, the Yom River could overflow and cause flooding."".

Well, Sirikit Dam on Nan river is not discharging to Yom river but to Nan river upstream. The recent high flows in Yom river were not due to dam releases but to high rainfall in the drainage area of Yom river.

By the way, based on the experience from last year, I think it would be a good idea to let the dam experts in Egat/RID do their important work without interference by politicians and alike.

It seems that they have already waited too long to discharge the high levels from the dams. Now that large quantities are building up, we have the same scenario arising as we saw last year.

I agree that the politicians should stay out of this and let the experts decide how much should be released to avoid major inundations, but I am also very concerned about what has actually been done sine last year to avoid a similar inundation this year.

Yingluck promises no major flooding again. Oh really? And that promise is based on what exactly?

"During the past two days, it discharged up to 32 million cubic metres of water per day," the water expert said. "I have asked the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand to lower the amount of discharged water to 17 million cubic metres per day."

He said if the volume of water discharged wasn't lowered, the Yom River could overflow and cause flooding.

Now there is fine tuning the system. Cut the output by about 50%.

Let's see what happens, flooding is a way of life in Thailand and has been for evermore, the best that can be hoped for is reduction, not avoidance, and it may well be an idea to allow controlled flooding in the Yom just now to prevent inundation later.

I do think it's an idea to leave it to the experts though.....Thai politicians are not famed for their planning abilities.

Maybe Yingluck could ask Thaksins (medium) look at his stars, the position of the planets to determine if the floods will return.

Flood mitigation and control is not a dice throwing game, but sometimes very close to it. Unless you want to make it to become completely a dice throwing game.

Experts want to release 32 million cubic meter per day from Sirikit dam (?). Minister wants it to be reduced it to 17 million cubic meters per day. It is not a question of which party knows more than the other that you might put much of your concern. It is a matter of fact you don't know. I don't know either. Both of us are not in position to know it. What you should concern is there is a sign that the dams operations in Thailand are not guided by medium and long term objectives. This means that short term objective dominates real time decision making. This is not good. Meeting the short term objective alone may end up with speculation dominates the event. As a result, the dams operations may turn out to be the very expensive dice throwing game.

Edited June 15, 201214 yr by ResX

""Royol said he was also worried about the Sirikit Dam because the volume of water in the dam had risen significantly."During the past two days, it discharged up to 32 million cubic metres of water per day," the water expert said. "I have asked the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand to lower the amount of discharged water to 17 million cubic metres per day."He said if the volume of water discharged wasn't lowered, the Yom River could overflow and cause flooding."".

Well, Sirikit Dam on Nan river is not discharging to Yom river but to Nan river upstream. The recent high flows in Yom river were not due to dam releases but to high rainfall in the drainage area of Yom river.

By the way, based on the experience from last year, I think it would be a good idea to let the dam experts in Egat/RID do their important work without interference by politicians and alike.

The Yom flows into the Nan downstream of the dam. high flows in the Nan will cause the Yom flow to slow and rise.

Maybe Yingluck could ask Thaksins (medium) look at his stars, the position of the planets to determine if the floods will return.

Actually it is the moon and its influence on the tides.

Bet you didn't know that when the sun, moon and earth are aligned there is a gravitational impact.

I thought that we knew that there would be no flood crisis this year. I mean Yingluck promised us.

G-kid, At 70 I would never have heard of that-news to me, Ha Ha, but I was a little serious about Thaksins MEDIUM style guidense. All that DOSH and he has time for that rubbish,but my comment about this is simply--who knows what will be the outcome this year, only proper water management, repairs, hard work done (if any) in the last 6 months to TRY to prevent. Whoever is governing has to shoulder this responsibility.

It seems that they have already waited too long to discharge the high levels from the dams. Now that large quantities are building up, we have the same scenario arising as we saw last year.

I agree that the politicians should stay out of this and let the experts decide how much should be released to avoid major inundations, but I am also very concerned about what has actually been done sine last year to avoid a similar inundation this year.

Yingluck promises no major flooding again. Oh really? And that promise is based on what exactly?

In fact RID/Egat has since last year carefully managed to release lots of water from the dams, so the dams now are less than 50 % full. If RID/Egat over the next two months can manage to keep the water storage in the dams to 50-60 % of their capacities only, the risk of later overflow from the dams (= major flooding) will be very low. But this requires that non-experts do not interfere in their release management every time a small downstream area become flooded for a limited time during June-July.

Edited June 15, 201214 yr by steenasger

while I hate to wish misery on anyone I think if it happens and other things this bunch of clowns ruin maybe just maybe enough Thais will start to begin to understand they have voted for people totally incompetent, not interested in them at all, incapable of running anything, totally corrupt and a laughing stock for anyone with 1/2 a brain here.

It makes the idiots running europe and USA seem like geniuses

Im waitng for the day when the decent Thais stop simply taking a few hundred baht for their vote and start to understand how taksin and his clan have made them willing slaves and that they will continue to be slaves for ever while Taksin rules.

It seems that they have already waited too long to discharge the high levels from the dams. Now that large quantities are building up, we have the same scenario arising as we saw last year.

I agree that the politicians should stay out of this and let the experts decide how much should be released to avoid major inundations, but I am also very concerned about what has actually been done sine last year to avoid a similar inundation this year.

Yingluck promises no major flooding again. Oh really? And that promise is based on what exactly?

In fact RID/Egat has since last year carefully managed to release lots of water from the dams, so the dams now are less than 50 % full. If RID/Egat over the next two months can manage to keep the water storage in the dams to 50-60 % of their capacities only, the risk of later overflow from the dams (= major flooding) will be very low. But this requires that non-experts do not interfere in their release management every time a small downstream area become flooded for a limited time during June-July.

So far so good. In fact the total flood reserve volume from Sirkit & Bhumibol of 14 billion cubic meters, to me is too big. But if there is no conflict may arise with the other stake holders such as irrigation department, domestic water supply, EGAT etc. then there is no issue to keep the margin such as this one.

Now, you are entering more critical stage of flood control startegy i.e. to preserve the margin- Second phase. If I can suggest it is suffient for Bhumibol and Sirkit to have the total margin of 7 billion cubic meters. I hope I don't miss any important fact about these two dams and their catchment areas to come up this suggestion. The most important thing this margin shall be preserved until the 7-day highest intensity of flood flow strikes or until mid of Nov, whichever comes first.

The reason I used 7 billion cubic meters as the anticipated flood waters for Bhumibol and Sirkit is due to the fact that average annual rainfall for these two dams is not more than 20 billion cubic meters. In this case reasonable estimate for the most extreme 7-day flood that has average recurrent interval (ARI) of 1 -in-50 years (or 2% probabibilty) could not be more than 7 billion cubic meters.

I have mentioned some months ago that Thailand has to have ability to capture at least between 15-20 billion cubic meters of 7-day flood waters in order to entirely beat the most extreme flood with ARI 1-in-50 years. Therefore, the other says 10 billion cubic meters storage capacity shall be placed in the middle and towards the end of the CH river. Relying on the dams in North alone may not be strategically correct.

Let us see later whether there is a need to talk about 3rd and 4th phase. But I can tell you in advanced about the 5th phase. Pack all your belongings. Ready to move to higher grounds. To the most extreme case flood cannot avoided. We can only mitigate and control it.

Edited June 15, 201214 yr by ResX

Slightly off topic but when they say a dam has xm3 water when full don't they mean that would be the number after the dam was built because surely over the years the lake bottom becomes silted up resulting in much less volume. This can be deceiving in that they think there is enough water for irrigation when in fact there is not.

It seems that they have already waited too long to discharge the high levels from the dams. Now that large quantities are building up, we have the same scenario arising as we saw last year.

I agree that the politicians should stay out of this and let the experts decide how much should be released to avoid major inundations, but I am also very concerned about what has actually been done sine last year to avoid a similar inundation this year.

Yingluck promises no major flooding again. Oh really? And that promise is based on what exactly?

Good ponts.

Slightly off topic but when they say a dam has xm3 water when full don't they mean that would be the number after the dam was built because surely over the years the lake bottom becomes silted up resulting in much less volume. This can be deceiving in that they think there is enough water for irrigation when in fact there is not.

Very little possibility that the scenario that have mentioned can become a problem for a hydroelectric dam that is younger than 70 years. But it is not impossible. I have come across the same problem for one of the dams that I had worked for. That was very special case. In the case of Bhumibol and Sirkit dams, if you don't mind I can assure you it is not the main issue, at least at the moment. Eventually, it will become one of the problems, but many years in future. I would say, most likely 20-30 years from now it will become an issue.

The storage, aka live storage that counts for flood control and mitigation, domestic water supply, irrigation and power generation for a hydroelectric reservoir is mainly associated with the top says 50% of the volume. Below this sectio, it is called the dead storage Sedimentation will effect the dead storage first before reaching live storage volume. When it starts to hit live storage volume then the problem that you have anticipated will become very real.

Where is Science & technology minister Plopadop when you need him ?....busy getting the tug boats serviced ?

It seems that they have already waited too long to discharge the high levels from the dams. Now that large quantities are building up, we have the same scenario arising as we saw last year.

I agree that the politicians should stay out of this and let the experts decide how much should be released to avoid major inundations, but I am also very concerned about what has actually been done sine last year to avoid a similar inundation this year.

Yingluck promises no major flooding again. Oh really? And that promise is based on what exactly?

I don't wish to worry you but she is being advised by Science Minister Plodrasop.

122% of capacity, mmhhh, would it not overflow permanently or is this a thai thing ?

We will know by the end of July.

Is that this July or July 2013

Will night follow day? We'll know if/when it gets dark out.

Located in Lop Buri, the Pasak Jolasid Dam can hold up to 780 million cubic metres of water. For some years, though, the volume of water at this dam has been 122 per cent of its total capacity.

"We can't keep the water level in this dam too low either, otherwise the country won't have adequate water for the farming sector during the dry season next year," Royol pointed out.

dam_n dams!

22% more water is really a lot. Around 160 million cubic meters of water! When does too low start then?

Thailand, the hub of confusing statements, third and fourth genders, Ying's without lucks and her older brothel......

122% of capacity, mmhhh, would it not overflow permanently or is this a thai thing ?

from Wiki

" Pasak Jolasid Dam - storage capacity is 785 million cubic meter of water at normal water level, with a maximum capacity of 960 million cubic meters."

960 is 122% of 785, so they are keeping this dam at max. level. There is 6.7MW hydro station and I assume they are running it at full power??

What gets really interesting is " The dam also decreases problems of water management in Bangkok by allowing more flood control, as the Pa Sak river was one of the main sources of flooding in the Bangkok metropolitan area."

<deleted>?

It seems that they have already waited too long to discharge the high levels from the dams. Now that large quantities are building up, we have the same scenario arising as we saw last year.

I agree that the politicians should stay out of this and let the experts decide how much should be released to avoid major inundations, but I am also very concerned about what has actually been done sine last year to avoid a similar inundation this year.

Yingluck promises no major flooding again. Oh really? And that promise is based on what exactly?

Good ponts.

.

That PM Yingluck could actually make such a spurious claim into a microphone says much about her competence.

That she makes this promise actually believing her constituents will buy it says a great deal about the average competence of the average Thai voter.

Frightening ... both instances.

122% of capacity, mmhhh, would it not overflow permanently or is this a thai thing ?

You have very good reason to worry. Especially if you accept my explainantion that the dams in the North are over released. If they released too much water from upstream dams, downstream dams may be busy to handle the flow from upstream dams. Therefore down stream dams had little oppurtunity left to deal with their own inflows. So 122% storage may be the final outcome.....

122% of capacity, mmhhh, would it not overflow permanently or is this a thai thing ?

from Wiki

" Pasak Jolasid Dam - storage capacity is 785 million cubic meter of water at normal water level, with a maximum capacity of 960 million cubic meters."

960 is 122% of 785, so they are keeping this dam at max. level. There is 6.7MW hydro station and I assume they are running it at full power??

What gets really interesting is " The dam also decreases problems of water management in Bangkok by allowing more flood control, as the Pa Sak river was one of the main sources of flooding in the Bangkok metropolitan area."

<deleted>?

as higher the level as more electric, but 6.7 MW sounds very small to me.

122% of capacity, mmhhh, would it not overflow permanently or is this a thai thing ?

from Wiki

" Pasak Jolasid Dam - storage capacity is 785 million cubic meter of water at normal water level, with a maximum capacity of 960 million cubic meters."

960 is 122% of 785, so they are keeping this dam at max. level. There is 6.7MW hydro station and I assume they are running it at full power??

What gets really interesting is " The dam also decreases problems of water management in Bangkok by allowing more flood control, as the Pa Sak river was one of the main sources of flooding in the Bangkok metropolitan area."

<deleted>?

as higher the level as more electric, but 6.7 MW sounds very small to me.

That's not it in the picture. It's a wide (~5km) and shallow (wiki quotes 31.5 and 36.5m) dam, both references state about 6.7MW. It is also quite close to the confluence with the CP and not that far from BKK.

But why is it a max level at this time of year?

122% of capacity, mmhhh, would it not overflow permanently or is this a thai thing ?

from Wiki

" Pasak Jolasid Dam - storage capacity is 785 million cubic meter of water at normal water level, with a maximum capacity of 960 million cubic meters."

960 is 122% of 785, so they are keeping this dam at max. level. There is 6.7MW hydro station and I assume they are running it at full power??

What gets really interesting is " The dam also decreases problems of water management in Bangkok by allowing more flood control, as the Pa Sak river was one of the main sources of flooding in the Bangkok metropolitan area."

<deleted>?

as higher the level as more electric, but 6.7 MW sounds very small to me.

That's not it in the picture! It is a wide (~5km) and shallow (31.5 or 36.5m) earth wall dam, close to the confluence with the CP and nor that far from BKK. Both sources quote ~6.7MW.

But why is it so full NOW?