Don't Follow Greece's Hidden-Debt Path: Ammar

[kerryk]

What Wikipedia? GDP Thailand 345,649 CIA World Fact book 339,400 http://en.wikipedia....y_GDP_(nominal)

Someone help on this I'm stuck for any more places to look. Reasonable man says 600 I can only find around 300.

[kerryk]

Your article says the 2011 GDP of Thailand estimated is over $611. billion is that accurate?

Feel free to check it out. Www.google.com is popular among some posters here.

Ya I did. I get around $377 billion. http://www.gfmag.com...l#axzz1zqozifFH

One of us is way off? I assume it's you as it usually is.

Your figure is way off. Try Wikipedia- it also has around 600B

Reasonable man's article is in dollars $600 billion dollars.

[Reasonableman]

What Wikipedia? GDP Thailand 345,649 CIA World Fact book 339,400 http://en.wikipedia....y_GDP_(nominal)

Someone help on this I'm stuck for any more places to look. Reasonable man says 600 I can only find around 300.

No need to make it personal kerryk. It is a quotation from a specialist, which disagrees with your own position, that is all. I don't own it. 555

Edited July 7, 2012 by Reasonableman

[Reasonableman]

601billion in 2011

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand

Keep looking.... ;-)

Edited July 7, 2012 by Reasonableman

[Thai at Heart]

Anyone see the rather important story that the govt will start intervening in the rubber market if the prices drop too low. It is hiding at the bottom of articles in the other paper.

[kerryk]

601billion in 2011

http://en.wikipedia....omy_of_Thailand

Keep looking.... ;-)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29

OK who do you believe Kerry K and the International Monetary Fund $345,649,

World Bank $345,649, CIA World Fact Book $339,400

Reasonable man GDP estimate from un named Wiki source $601,000

Edited July 7, 2012 by kerryk

[Reasonableman]

The est. 601b is GDP PPP (you can read, can you not?). What is the point of this frantic nitpicking about this number?

[Reasonableman]

601billion in 2011

http://en.wikipedia....omy_of_Thailand

Keep looking.... ;-)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29

OK who do you believe Kerry K and the International Monetary Fund $345,649,

World Bank $345,649, CIA World Fact Book $339,400

Reasonable man GDP estimate from un named Wiki source $601,000

For a person ostensibly so focused on getting the correct numbers, it's odd that you manage to lose all those zeros. $601,000. Wow, that's a scary economic contraction! 555

[Reasonableman]

As an example he cited the government's requiring the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) to support the rice-pledging scheme. The bank has so far spent about Bt300 billion on buying rice from farmers.

The government has bought unmilled rice for Bt15,000 per tonne, significantly higher than market prices.

"There's a 99.999-per-cent chance that the government will lose taxpayer money when it sells rice later, with the loss estimated to be about Bt70 billion," he said.

Kerryk, is there anything you've come up with that has addressed or negated this contention in the OP? This contention was supported by another expert in the rice industry, as you see. What point are you trying to make?

Edited July 7, 2012 by Reasonableman

[kerryk]

http://oryza.com/Rice-News/15288.html

Southeast Asia Expert: Rice Mortgage Scheme May Cost Thailand 5% of GDP

By news desk on June 01,2012

A senior economist and an expert in South East Asian Studies has warned that unless the Thailand’s rice mortgage scheme is scrapped soon, it will likely end up hurting Thailand’s economy significantly. The economist says that high purchase prices of about 50-60% above the prevailing market price combined with failure to cap purchases, has made the Thai government the world’s largest rice trader. Rice stockpiles have reached record highs of over 12.5 million tons, and the cost of procurement, handling and storage is likely to cause a loss equivalent to 5% of its GDP, he adds.

OK go back to my original question. Quoting from the above article, "Thailand's GDP for 2011 is estimated at over $600 billion."

No that is not true Thailand's GDP for 2011 is around $350 billion. Source IMF, World Bank and CIA Factbook.

So that makes all the numbers in the above article incorrect.

That's all I said. 300 billion in my opinion in not nitpicking.

[kerryk]

As an example he cited the government's requiring the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) to support the rice-pledging scheme. The bank has so far spent about Bt300 billion on buying rice from farmers.

The government has bought unmilled rice for Bt15,000 per tonne, significantly higher than market prices.

"There's a 99.999-per-cent chance that the government will lose taxpayer money when it sells rice later, with the loss estimated to be about Bt70 billion," he said.

Kerryk, is there anything you've come up with that has addressed or negated this contention in the OP? This contention was supported by another expert in the rice industry, as you see. What point are you trying to make?

I agree with Ammar completely. I think he is a smart guy and the government should give him a job regulating banks and not loaning money to the farmers at the expense of all the other people in Thailand. Thailand is changing from an agricultural to industrial society. It is a difficult process. Thailand would rather keep a rural base but it is going to disappear. Governments will continue to buy votes by buying farmers jobs. Farm subsidies are an issue in a lot of countries. Who are you going to side with? The Bangkok elite or the farmers. Not really news.

[Reasonableman]

http://oryza.com/Rice-News/15288.html

Southeast Asia Expert: Rice Mortgage Scheme May Cost Thailand 5% of GDP

By news desk on June 01,2012

A senior economist and an expert in South East Asian Studies has warned that unless the Thailand’s rice mortgage scheme is scrapped soon, it will likely end up hurting Thailand’s economy significantly. The economist says that high purchase prices of about 50-60% above the prevailing market price combined with failure to cap purchases, has made the Thai government the world’s largest rice trader. Rice stockpiles have reached record highs of over 12.5 million tons, and the cost of procurement, handling and storage is likely to cause a loss equivalent to 5% of its GDP, he adds.

OK go back to my original question. Quoting from the above article, "Thailand's GDP for 2011 is estimated at over $600 billion."

No that is not true Thailand's GDP for 2011 is around $350 billion. Source IMF, World Bank and CIA Factbook.

So that makes all the numbers in the above article incorrect.

That's all I said. 300 billion in my opinion in not nitpicking.

No, just deliberate obfuscation and a red herring. Your question was impertinent, as in, not pertinent to the thrust of the OP, which you continue to avoid.

[kerryk]

http://oryza.com/Rice-News/15288.html

Southeast Asia Expert: Rice Mortgage Scheme May Cost Thailand 5% of GDP

By news desk on June 01,2012

A senior economist and an expert in South East Asian Studies has warned that unless the Thailand’s rice mortgage scheme is scrapped soon, it will likely end up hurting Thailand’s economy significantly. The economist says that high purchase prices of about 50-60% above the prevailing market price combined with failure to cap purchases, has made the Thai government the world’s largest rice trader. Rice stockpiles have reached record highs of over 12.5 million tons, and the cost of procurement, handling and storage is likely to cause a loss equivalent to 5% of its GDP, he adds.

OK go back to my original question. Quoting from the above article, "Thailand's GDP for 2011 is estimated at over $600 billion."

No that is not true Thailand's GDP for 2011 is around $350 billion. Source IMF, World Bank and CIA Factbook.

So that makes all the numbers in the above article incorrect.

That's all I said. 300 billion in my opinion in not nitpicking.

No, just deliberate obfuscation and a red herring. Your question was impertinent, as in, not pertinent to the thrust of the OP, which you continue to avoid.

I think I was posting as you were posting. Do you want me to answer your question again? Or can you read the above?

Edit here it is anyway.

I agree with Ammar completely. I think he is a smart guy and the government should give him a job regulating banks and not loaning money to the farmers at the expense of all the other people in Thailand. Thailand is changing from an agricultural to industrial society. It is a difficult process. Thailand would rather keep a rural base but it is going to disappear. Governments will continue to buy votes by buying farmers jobs. Farm subsidies are an issue in a lot of countries. Who are you going to side with? The Bangkok elite or the farmers. Not really news.

Edited July 7, 2012 by kerryk

[Moruya]

What Wikipedia? GDP Thailand 345,649 CIA World Fact book 339,400 http://en.wikipedia....y_GDP_(nominal)

Someone help on this I'm stuck for any more places to look. Reasonable man says 600 I can only find around 300.

The most commonly used figure is (strangely enough) the PPP figure

[waza]

Quiet a damming finacial report for the PTP government. This hidden debt is great for artificially boosting the GDP and encouraging short term foriegn investment but the long term effect will despoil the Thai economy.

Edited July 7, 2012 by waza

[waza]

The economy isn't being battered it is in good shape but the guy makes a lot of good points; the government should hire him and have him regulate the banks.

Prove it.

[waza]

The economy isn't being battered it is in good shape but the guy makes a lot of good points; the government should hire him and have him regulate the banks.

Of course it's being battered with massive spending and having government debt grafted into government banks.

The banks don't need regulating any more than they are now as they keep away from risk. The government on the other hand does!

Google Thai investment. Thailand is doing very well right now second only to China for investments in emerging markets according to Bloomberg.

'He compared the behavior of Thai politicians to that of US bankers, whose push for high profits in the short term without thinking about risk management contributed to the 2008 global financial crisis.'

The government wants loans from the banks. Two ways to stop that. Regulate the government or regulate the banks.

Thats rubbish

[kerryk]

The economy isn't being battered it is in good shape but the guy makes a lot of good points; the government should hire him and have him regulate the banks.

Of course it's being battered with massive spending and having government debt grafted into government banks.

The banks don't need regulating any more than they are now as they keep away from risk. The government on the other hand does!

Google Thai investment. Thailand is doing very well right now second only to China for investments in emerging markets according to Bloomberg.

'He compared the behavior of Thai politicians to that of US bankers, whose push for high profits in the short term without thinking about risk management contributed to the 2008 global financial crisis.'

The government wants loans from the banks. Two ways to stop that. Regulate the government or regulate the banks.

Thats rubbish

What is rubbish is a post stating rubbish with nothing else. Like you are a credible source

[kerryk]

The economy isn't being battered it is in good shape but the guy makes a lot of good points; the government should hire him and have him regulate the banks.

Prove it.

Disprove it!

[kerryk]

Quiet a damming finacial report for the PTP government. This hidden debt is great for artificially boosting the GDP and encouraging short term foriegn investment but the long term effect will despoil the Thai economy.

The Thai government has the 11th largest foreign currency reserves of all the countries in the world, if memory serves me correctly, at any rate more than the US or UK or Canada. Ammar suggests using these to pay off the debt and the government agrees with him although he suggests using them at a slower rate.

[waza]

I am saying you are talking an obscure news item and misinterpreting it to make an invalid point inorder to misdirect the members in this forum.

"Google Thai investment. Thailand is doing very well right now second only to China for investments in emerging markets according to Bloomberg". Kerrk 2012

You show me your source and I will show you mine.

Edited July 7, 2012 by waza

[kerryk]

Quiet a damming finacial report for the PTP government. This hidden debt is great for artificially boosting the GDP and encouraging short term foriegn investment but the long term effect will despoil the Thai economy.

The Thai government has the 11th largest foreign currency reserves of all the countries in the world, if memory serves me correctly, at any rate more than the US or UK or Canada. Ammar suggests using these to pay off the debt and the government agrees with him although he suggests using them at a slower rate.

I am saying you are talking an obscure news item and misinterpreting it to make an invalid point inorder to misdirect the members in this forum. You show me your source and I will show you mine.

What source for what? Thailand foreign currency reserves??? Google it is not obscure. Spending foreign reserves to pay of the debt? Heck, that is in the OP in this thread! Ammar Siamwalla 'supports the government's plan to use part of the country's international reserves to pay off the debt of the Financial Institutions Development Fund (FIDF) That is from the OP in this thread!"

[kerryk]

As an aside I have found quoting from the OP completely confuses people who have not read the OP.

[Moruya]

The economy isn't being battered it is in good shape but the guy makes a lot of good points; the government should hire him and have him regulate the banks.

Prove it.

Look at the increasing debt.

Look at the drop in exports

Looka at the rise in imports

Look at the incease in expenditure

[kerryk]

The economy isn't being battered it is in good shape but the guy makes a lot of good points; the government should hire him and have him regulate the banks.

Prove it.

Look at the increasing debt.

Look at the drop in exports

Looka at the rise in imports

Look at the incease in expenditure

There is no significant increasing debt.

There is no drop in exports.

There is no rise in imports vs exports.

I don't understand expenditure? Whose expenditure as opposed to collection?

[Moruya]

The economy isn't being battered it is in good shape but the guy makes a lot of good points; the government should hire him and have him regulate the banks.

Prove it.

Look at the increasing debt.

Look at the drop in exports

Looka at the rise in imports

Look at the incease in expenditure

There is no significant increasing debt.

There is no drop in exports.

There is no rise in imports vs exports.

I don't understand expenditure? Whose expenditure as opposed to collection?

So the government borrowing hundreds of billions of Baht for flood programs etc. is not an increase in debt?

Export Jan - Apr 2012 70B USD against 225B USD 2012 - trend down

Import Jan- Apr 2012 70B USD against 202B USD 2012 - trend up

Government expenditure is way up

Feel free to consult the BOT website - you'll fund it very informative.

[kerryk]

From Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg...ng-markets.html

In a Bloomberg Markets ranking, Thailand is second only to China among the world’s best emerging markets for investors. The ranking looks at a series of measures such as market transparency and prospects for growth over the next four years.

Thailand has developed such successful electronics and auto industries that it now produces from 35 to 40 percent of all computer hard disk drives and, in 2010, built more light trucks than Japan.

In agriculture, besides being the world’s biggest rice exporter, Thailand ranks No. 1 in rubber and No. 2 in sugar. The country that brands itself the Land of Smiles has consistently remained one of the world’s top 20 tourism destinations, attracting more visitors in 2010 than Greece.

In 1983, Cupertino, California-based Seagate Technology Plc (STX), the world’s biggest maker of hard disk drives, began production in Bangkok.

Western Digital Corp., its Irvine, California-based rival, followed suit, as did U.S. automakers Ford Motor Co. (F) and General Motors Co.

Hundreds of Thai companies sprang up to supply parts. From 1971 through 2010, Thailand’s annual GDP growth averaged 6 percent despite being buffeted by coups and financial crises.

Japan is the biggest foreign investor in Thailand; it pumped $3.15 billion into the country in 2010.

The son of a Voice of America correspondent, Heinecke, 62, gave up his U.S. citizenship in 1992 to take Thai nationality. Political protest in 2007 that closed Bangkok’s two airports for a week, stranding 400,000 travelers. During the worst times, Heinecke’s hotel occupancy rates plunged to less than 20 percent, he says. And yet his business has grown from a single hotel to 70 resorts; 1,200 restaurants, including a Burger King franchise; and 200 retail stores, including Gap Inc. outlets.

[Moruya]

From Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg...ng-markets.html

In a Bloomberg Markets ranking, Thailand is second only to China among the world’s best emerging markets for investors. The ranking looks at a series of measures such as market transparency and prospects for growth over the next four years.

Thailand has developed such successful electronics and auto industries that it now produces from 35 to 40 percent of all computer hard disk drives and, in 2010, built more light trucks than Japan.

In agriculture, besides being the world’s biggest rice exporter, Thailand ranks No. 1 in rubber and No. 2 in sugar. The country that brands itself the Land of Smiles has consistently remained one of the world’s top 20 tourism destinations, attracting more visitors in 2010 than Greece.

In 1983, Cupertino, California-based Seagate Technology Plc (STX), the world’s biggest maker of hard disk drives, began production in Bangkok.

Western Digital Corp., its Irvine, California-based rival, followed suit, as did U.S. automakers Ford Motor Co. (F) and General Motors Co.

Hundreds of Thai companies sprang up to supply parts. From 1971 through 2010, Thailand’s annual GDP growth averaged 6 percent despite being buffeted by coups and financial crises.

Japan is the biggest foreign investor in Thailand; it pumped $3.15 billion into the country in 2010.

The son of a Voice of America correspondent, Heinecke, 62, gave up his U.S. citizenship in 1992 to take Thai nationality. Political protest in 2007 that closed Bangkok’s two airports for a week, stranding 400,000 travelers. During the worst times, Heinecke’s hotel occupancy rates plunged to less than 20 percent, he says. And yet his business has grown from a single hotel to 70 resorts; 1,200 restaurants, including a Burger King franchise; and 200 retail stores, including Gap Inc. outlets.

I'm perfectly aware that some companies have done very well in Thailand over the years - and I'm also aware that due to the rising cost of labour of some of the companies mentioned here are looking to relocate

My figures above relate to the financial state of Thailand as an entity - not to companies that are either foreign JVs (where 49% of the profit will be expatriated) or wholly Thai owned businesses - I hope you can see the difference.

[kerryk]

From Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg...ng-markets.html

In a Bloomberg Markets ranking, Thailand is second only to China among the world’s best emerging markets for investors. The ranking looks at a series of measures such as market transparency and prospects for growth over the next four years.

Thailand has developed such successful electronics and auto industries that it now produces from 35 to 40 percent of all computer hard disk drives and, in 2010, built more light trucks than Japan.

In agriculture, besides being the world’s biggest rice exporter, Thailand ranks No. 1 in rubber and No. 2 in sugar. The country that brands itself the Land of Smiles has consistently remained one of the world’s top 20 tourism destinations, attracting more visitors in 2010 than Greece.

In 1983, Cupertino, California-based Seagate Technology Plc (STX), the world’s biggest maker of hard disk drives, began production in Bangkok.

Western Digital Corp., its Irvine, California-based rival, followed suit, as did U.S. automakers Ford Motor Co. (F) and General Motors Co.

Hundreds of Thai companies sprang up to supply parts. From 1971 through 2010, Thailand’s annual GDP growth averaged 6 percent despite being buffeted by coups and financial crises.

Japan is the biggest foreign investor in Thailand; it pumped $3.15 billion into the country in 2010.

The son of a Voice of America correspondent, Heinecke, 62, gave up his U.S. citizenship in 1992 to take Thai nationality. Political protest in 2007 that closed Bangkok’s two airports for a week, stranding 400,000 travelers. During the worst times, Heinecke’s hotel occupancy rates plunged to less than 20 percent, he says. And yet his business has grown from a single hotel to 70 resorts; 1,200 restaurants, including a Burger King franchise; and 200 retail stores, including Gap Inc. outlets.

I'm perfectly aware that some companies have done very well in Thailand over the years - and I'm also aware that due to the rising cost of labour of some of the companies mentioned here are looking to relocate

My figures above relate to the financial state of Thailand as an entity - not to companies that are either foreign JVs (where 49% of the profit will be expatriated) or wholly Thai owned businesses - I hope you can see the difference.

What I can see is you have been outclassed in your argument. Bloomberg does not agree with you. Nor would anyone else who did not have an axe to grind. Make it small so you can understand. How much does Ford contribute to the Thai economy and how much does it take out? How much of that was there before Ford came? The one new Ford plant in Rayong; how much does it pay in salaries? How much does it buy in auto parts? How much does it contribute in new cash to the Thai economy?

Oh I forgot. Who do you think investors listen to? You, a 73 year old Indian economist from Harvard with no international ranking or Bloomberg? PS Ammar is also a critic of the 30 baht healthcare program.

Edited July 7, 2012 by kerryk

[h90]

The economy isn't being battered it is in good shape but the guy makes a lot of good points; the government should hire him and have him regulate the banks.

Prove it.

The economic is in surprisingly good shape. But many are waiting to jump off Thailand. And Thailand didn't recover fully from the floods. The burning buildings in Bangkok also didn't help.

If the Euro crises is getting worse and if there is again flooding this year it will be though for Thailand.

The only way than is to devalue the Baht. If they try to hold it like 1997 (it was the same bunch of idiots 1997), it all may end the same as 1997.

At least than I can buy my piece of land close to the beach I am dreaming about.....