Current Bull Run On The Set

[RogueExpat]

SET has been running hard, and smashed through the 1300 point level.

I know this is a rather undefinable question, however, anyone game to make predictions as to when it is going to top out.

Thai politics is looking more or less stable for the next six months. This year's flood threats to the industrial estates seems to have passed. Anymore nasty surprises coming out of Europe? Oil is not doing much etc.

Go on. Have a shot and post your predictions for the SET.

[kblaze]

Near-term upside risk involves Spain and the possibility it finally formally asks for a bailout. Strangely, this should be market-appreciative. Other upside to the SET comes from positive economic numbers from the US or China, like we saw last night (well the US numbers were kinda positive at least).

Any complications in helping Spain would push markets down, as well as negative econ numbers out of the US and China.

Further suppression of global markets will come as Obamas lead over Romney widens, and if/when he is reelected there will undoubtedly be a correction.

The SET is more sensitive to macro-global issues than domestic ones so keep your eye on those.

So to conclude, I would say as long as there are no global shocks, the SET could hit 1350 this year and 1400 next year. But there is so much that could happen (fiscal cliff, eurozone..IRAN/ISRAEL) between now and next year that it is hard to make any prediction. But for the time being, as we have started a new quarter, things are RELATIVELY quiet.

Edited October 2, 2012 by kblaze