TheKrayTriplet Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Why don't they control the levels from the start of the monsoon season? Well I take it they did try a bit - end June beginning of July the Nan River was 10 or 15 feet above normal in P-loke. They kept it going to 10 days or so. This of course when it was barely raining. At the time the local comment was, hope they keep some water behind the dams, because if its not a heavy rainy season in the months ahead, irrigation water for rice will be hammered. Gee if only we could control the weather My point exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samran Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I guess everyone on this thread is a qualified hydrologist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indyuk Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Why don't they control the levels from the start of the monsoon season? Certain dams require close to a year to prepare themselves for floods. Those two dams in the north falls under this category. In general the shorter period to prepare for flood the more tendency for flash floods to oocur since for a given volume of water to be drawn down, the discharge flow rate is inversely proportional to draw down period. For example if you opt to draw down 10 billion cubic meters of water from those two dams in the nort in 24 days you will see the level of flood similar to the 2011 floods, even if you assume no additional flow at downstream. How much water dams in north released the first 10 days during the 2011 floods? If you know the figure then you have understood 40% of the 2011 flood problem. It was said such released was done under duress. Really? I wish I know for sure. It is only possible if I know the detail design of the dams. The facts are that Thailand adjusts water levels in all Dams that are part of the Thai flood prevention system every wet season. However there are varying points of view as to what level to set for each year. This year Yingluck instructed water management in the North West to fix the maximum fill limit of each Dam at 65% of capacity. This means that each time the level of them Dam(s) reached 65% The excess water had to be released. Thailand's water management system is adequate when maintained properly. It should also be noted that Thailand has an extensive resource of hydraulic engineers especially when backed up by her well know contractors. The problem is the usual Thai issue of lack of cooperation and a multitude of bosses. Yingluck changed that this year by giving the disparate departments specific instructions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cup-O-coffee Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 (edited) I am tracking this one for the record, and it will be interesting to note the effects. It looks to be a substantial here in Pattaya, if it remains consistent. The ground is already saturated and there is no place for any excess water to go but up and over. I am certain the local Thais do not even know about this, which is another typical bane on them. Ask any student what Tropical Storm Gaemi is (even translated) and you will draw a blank look. So, don't simply blame the government, but also the 63.4% (in Bangkok for example) of Thais who read the newspapers, whose editors do not post this information in the sports and soaps section. Edited October 3, 2012 by cup-O-coffee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ResX Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 (edited) Why don't they control the levels from the start of the monsoon season? Well I take it they did try a bit - end June beginning of July the Nan River was 10 or 15 feet above normal in P-loke. They kept it going to 10 days or so. This of course when it was barely raining. At the time the local comment was, hope they keep some water behind the dams, because if its not a heavy rainy season in the months ahead, irrigation water for rice will be hammered. Gee if only we could control the weather I don't know about future but by the standard of today there is no demanding need to control weather. Take is as given. We better try not to alter whether to make it performs the way we want it to be. We better try to live our life around weather rather then trying to change it to our requirements. Talking about dealing with the two extremes, flood and drought, any standard dam is designed with the basic capability to deal with both. Provided that we don't take its capability for granted to serve our greed. Bhumibol dam can store equivalent to around two years of average rainfall. Practically speaking, the dam is in position to "control weather two years ahead of real time". Just use it properly. Wet and drought can be well mitigated. It is unwise to draw down the dam water level by assuming we are going to get plenty of rainfall equivalent to two years average rainfall within two months. It is equally unwise to keep the dam water level by assuming we don't get any rainfall over the next 12 months. Something in between should be a wiser option. Edited October 3, 2012 by ResX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ResX Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 (edited) Why don't they control the levels from the start of the monsoon season? Certain dams require close to a year to prepare themselves for floods. Those two dams in the north falls under this category. In general the shorter period to prepare for flood the more tendency for flash floods to oocur since for a given volume of water to be drawn down, the discharge flow rate is inversely proportional to draw down period. For example if you opt to draw down 10 billion cubic meters of water from those two dams in the nort in 24 days you will see the level of flood similar to the 2011 floods, even if you assume no additional flow at downstream. How much water dams in north released the first 10 days during the 2011 floods? If you know the figure then you have understood 40% of the 2011 flood problem. It was said such released was done under duress. Really? I wish I know for sure. It is only possible if I know the detail design of the dams. The facts are that Thailand adjusts water levels in all Dams that are part of the Thai flood prevention system every wet season. However there are varying points of view as to what level to set for each year. This year Yingluck instructed water management in the North West to fix the maximum fill limit of each Dam at 65% of capacity. This means that each time the level of them Dam(s) reached 65% The excess water had to be released. Thailand's water management system is adequate when maintained properly. It should also be noted that Thailand has an extensive resource of hydraulic engineers especially when backed up by her well know contractors. The problem is the usual Thai issue of lack of cooperation and a multitude of bosses. Yingluck changed that this year by giving the disparate departments specific instructions. 65% of 13.5 billion cubic meters (Gross storage) or 65% of 9.8 billion cubic meters (Live or effective storage), assuming we are talking about Bhumibol dam. I hope they have come to term on this issue. Both will not give you the same number. That alone might invite catastropic flood or drought event in future. Whatever the number that might come out, it didn't work well in 2011. Practically, the number they were referred to in 2011 is 0%! That alone explains alot. The rest is history. Edited October 3, 2012 by ResX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apetley Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 The Meteorological Department has issued its eighth warning on tropical cyclone Gaemi that as of 4am today is in the mid-South China Sea, centered about 880km east of Da Nang, Vietnam with maximum sustained winds of about 75km/hr. The storm is moving east-southeast at about 10km/hr. -- TNA 2012-10-03 Surely an east-southeast course takes it almost directly away from Thailand? Or am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimjim Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Just think about the Formula 1 plans and seeing that hole. They have sinkholes all over the world, and yes even in countries that host Formula 1 races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OZEMADE Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 YOUR NEXT 7 DAYS. For period of Oct 3, 2012 - Oct 9, 2012 Weather Forecast During 3-4 Oct, the weak monsoon trough lies across the lower Central, the upper South and the East to tropical storm “GAEMI” in the middle South China Sea and the moderate southwest monsoon prevails over Andaman Sea, the South and the Gulf. Widely scattered to scattered rain is likely in the country. During 5-6 Oct, tropical storm “GAEMI” is expected to make landfall over central Vietnam and move to the lower Northeast and the Central of Thailand during 7-9 Oct. These cause torrential rain with heavy to very heavy of the lower North, the Northeast, the Central, the East and the upper South of the country. The stronger wind waves are likely 2-3 meters high in the upper Gulf and the Andaman Sea. Warning During 5-9 Oct, people in the risky areas of the lower North, the lower Northeast, the Central, the East and the upper South should beware of heavy to very heavy rain. All ships in the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand should proceed with caution and small boats keep ashore. Northern Part During 3-4 Oct, scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 22-25 oC, maximum temperature 30-34 oC. Easterly winds 10-30 km/hr. During 5-9 Oct, scattered to fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy rain mostly in the lower part. Easterly wind 15-30 km/hr. Northeastern Part During 3-4 Oct, isolated to widely scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 21-24 oC, maximum temperature 31-34 oC. Northeasterly winds 10-30 km/hr. During 5-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers with windy and isolated heavy to very heavy rain mostly in the lower portion. Variable winds 15-35 km/hr Central Part During 3-5 Oct, widely scattered to scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 24-26 oC, maximum temperature 32-34 oC. Variable winds 10-30 km/hr. During 6-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers with windy and heavy to very heavy rain many places. Variable winds 15-35 km/hr. Eastern Part During 3-4 Oct, scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 23-25 oC, maximum temperature 30-34 oC. Variable winds 15-35 km/hr. Wave height 1-2 meters. During 5-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers and heavy to very heavy rain many places. Variable winds 20-40 km/hr. Wave height 2-3 meters. Southern Part (East Coast) During 3-4 Oct, scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 23-25 oC, maximum temperature 31-34 oC. Southwesterly winds 15-35 km/hr. Wave height 1-2 meters During 5-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy to very heavy rain in the upper part. Southwesterly winds 20-40 km/hr. Wave height about 2 meters and more than 2 meters in the thundershowers areas. Southern Part (West Coast) During 3-4 Oct, widely scattered to scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 22-25 oC, maximum temperature 30-34 oC. Southwesterly winds 15-35 km/hr. Wave height 1-2 meters During 5-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy to very heavy rain mostly in the upper part. Southwesterly winds 20-40 km/hr. Wave height 2-3 meters. Metropolitan During 3-5 Oct, scattered thundershowers and isolated heavy rain. Minimum temperature 24-26 oC, maximum temperature 32-34 oC. Variable winds 15-30 km/hr. During 6-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers with windy and isolated heavy to very heavy rain. Variable winds 15-35 km/hr. Time Issued : Oct 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metisdead Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 YOUR NEXT 7 DAYS. For period of Oct 3, 2012 - Oct 9, 2012 Weather Forecast During 3-4 Oct, the weak monsoon trough lies across the lower Central, the upper South and the East to tropical storm “GAEMI” in the middle South China Sea and the moderate southwest monsoon prevails over Andaman Sea, the South and the Gulf. Widely scattered to scattered rain is likely in the country. During 5-6 Oct, tropical storm “GAEMI” is expected to make landfall over central Vietnam and move to the lower Northeast and the Central of Thailand during 7-9 Oct. These cause torrential rain with heavy to very heavy of the lower North, the Northeast, the Central, the East and the upper South of the country. The stronger wind waves are likely 2-3 meters high in the upper Gulf and the Andaman Sea. Warning During 5-9 Oct, people in the risky areas of the lower North, the lower Northeast, the Central, the East and the upper South should beware of heavy to very heavy rain. All ships in the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand should proceed with caution and small boats keep ashore. Northern Part During 3-4 Oct, scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 22-25 oC, maximum temperature 30-34 oC. Easterly winds 10-30 km/hr. During 5-9 Oct, scattered to fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy rain mostly in the lower part. Easterly wind 15-30 km/hr. Northeastern Part During 3-4 Oct, isolated to widely scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 21-24 oC, maximum temperature 31-34 oC. Northeasterly winds 10-30 km/hr. During 5-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers with windy and isolated heavy to very heavy rain mostly in the lower portion. Variable winds 15-35 km/hr Central Part During 3-5 Oct, widely scattered to scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 24-26 oC, maximum temperature 32-34 oC. Variable winds 10-30 km/hr. During 6-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers with windy and heavy to very heavy rain many places. Variable winds 15-35 km/hr. Eastern Part During 3-4 Oct, scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 23-25 oC, maximum temperature 30-34 oC. Variable winds 15-35 km/hr. Wave height 1-2 meters. During 5-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers and heavy to very heavy rain many places. Variable winds 20-40 km/hr. Wave height 2-3 meters. Southern Part (East Coast) During 3-4 Oct, scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 23-25 oC, maximum temperature 31-34 oC. Southwesterly winds 15-35 km/hr. Wave height 1-2 meters During 5-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy to very heavy rain in the upper part. Southwesterly winds 20-40 km/hr. Wave height about 2 meters and more than 2 meters in the thundershowers areas. Southern Part (West Coast) During 3-4 Oct, widely scattered to scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 22-25 oC, maximum temperature 30-34 oC. Southwesterly winds 15-35 km/hr. Wave height 1-2 meters During 5-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy to very heavy rain mostly in the upper part. Southwesterly winds 20-40 km/hr. Wave height 2-3 meters. Metropolitan During 3-5 Oct, scattered thundershowers and isolated heavy rain. Minimum temperature 24-26 oC, maximum temperature 32-34 oC. Variable winds 15-30 km/hr. During 6-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers with windy and isolated heavy to very heavy rain. Variable winds 15-35 km/hr. Time Issued : Oct 3, 2012 Could you provide a link for this please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metisdead Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 A derogatory post has been removed, it was off topic as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloghead Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 The Meteorological Department has issued its eighth warning on tropical cyclone Gaemi that as of 4am today is in the mid-South China Sea, centered about 880km east of Da Nang, Vietnam with maximum sustained winds of about 75km/hr. The storm is moving east-southeast at about 10km/hr. -- TNA 2012-10-03 Surely an east-southeast course takes it almost directly away from Thailand? Or am I missing something? The Thai Meteorological Department needs to catch up a bit.The system changed direction around noon today--just as the experts predicted--and now is heading in a westward course roughly following 15* N latitude... WTPN31 PGTW 030900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 117.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 117.5E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OZEMADE Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 YOUR NEXT 7 DAYS. For period of Oct 3, 2012 - Oct 9, 2012 Weather Forecast During 3-4 Oct, the weak monsoon trough lies across the lower Central, the upper South and the East to tropical storm “GAEMI” in the middle South China Sea and the moderate southwest monsoon prevails over Andaman Sea, the South and the Gulf. Widely scattered to scattered rain is likely in the country. During 5-6 Oct, tropical storm “GAEMI” is expected to make landfall over central Vietnam and move to the lower Northeast and the Central of Thailand during 7-9 Oct. These cause torrential rain with heavy to very heavy of the lower North, the Northeast, the Central, the East and the upper South of the country. The stronger wind waves are likely 2-3 meters high in the upper Gulf and the Andaman Sea. Warning During 5-9 Oct, people in the risky areas of the lower North, the lower Northeast, the Central, the East and the upper South should beware of heavy to very heavy rain. All ships in the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand should proceed with caution and small boats keep ashore. Northern Part During 3-4 Oct, scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 22-25 oC, maximum temperature 30-34 oC. Easterly winds 10-30 km/hr. During 5-9 Oct, scattered to fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy rain mostly in the lower part. Easterly wind 15-30 km/hr. Northeastern Part During 3-4 Oct, isolated to widely scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 21-24 oC, maximum temperature 31-34 oC. Northeasterly winds 10-30 km/hr. During 5-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers with windy and isolated heavy to very heavy rain mostly in the lower portion. Variable winds 15-35 km/hr Central Part During 3-5 Oct, widely scattered to scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 24-26 oC, maximum temperature 32-34 oC. Variable winds 10-30 km/hr. During 6-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers with windy and heavy to very heavy rain many places. Variable winds 15-35 km/hr. Eastern Part During 3-4 Oct, scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 23-25 oC, maximum temperature 30-34 oC. Variable winds 15-35 km/hr. Wave height 1-2 meters. During 5-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers and heavy to very heavy rain many places. Variable winds 20-40 km/hr. Wave height 2-3 meters. Southern Part (East Coast) During 3-4 Oct, scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 23-25 oC, maximum temperature 31-34 oC. Southwesterly winds 15-35 km/hr. Wave height 1-2 meters During 5-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy to very heavy rain in the upper part. Southwesterly winds 20-40 km/hr. Wave height about 2 meters and more than 2 meters in the thundershowers areas. Southern Part (West Coast) During 3-4 Oct, widely scattered to scattered thundershowers. Minimum temperature 22-25 oC, maximum temperature 30-34 oC. Southwesterly winds 15-35 km/hr. Wave height 1-2 meters During 5-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy to very heavy rain mostly in the upper part. Southwesterly winds 20-40 km/hr. Wave height 2-3 meters. Metropolitan During 3-5 Oct, scattered thundershowers and isolated heavy rain. Minimum temperature 24-26 oC, maximum temperature 32-34 oC. Variable winds 15-30 km/hr. During 6-9 Oct, fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers with windy and isolated heavy to very heavy rain. Variable winds 15-35 km/hr. Time Issued : Oct 3, 2012 Could you provide a link for this please? No worries mate. http://www.tmd.go.th/en/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GentlemanJim Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I guess everyone on this thread is a qualified hydrologist? No, but I think ResX is, or he does a bloody good impersonation of someone who is. Keep the posts coming ResX we might all learn something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whybother Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 The Meteorological Department has issued its eighth warning on tropical cyclone Gaemi that as of 4am today is in the mid-South China Sea, centered about 880km east of Da Nang, Vietnam with maximum sustained winds of about 75km/hr. The storm is moving east-southeast at about 10km/hr. Surely an east-southeast course takes it almost directly away from Thailand? Or am I missing something? It currently (or was) tracking VERY slowly south east and expected to turn west and hit Vietnam early Saturday. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp201221.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mosha Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Why don't they control the levels from the start of the monsoon season? Certain dams require close to a year to prepare themselves for floods. Those two dams in the north falls under this category. In general the shorter period to prepare for flood the more tendency for flash floods to oocur since for a given volume of water to be drawn down, the discharge flow rate is inversely proportional to draw down period. For example if you opt to draw down 10 billion cubic meters of water from those two dams in the nort in 24 days you will see the level of flood similar to the 2011 floods, even if you assume no additional flow at downstream. How much water dams in north released the first 10 days during the 2011 floods? If you know the figure then you have understood 40% of the 2011 flood problem. It was said such released was done under duress. Really? I wish I know for sure. It is only possible if I know the detail design of the dams. The facts are that Thailand adjusts water levels in all Dams that are part of the Thai flood prevention system every wet season. However there are varying points of view as to what level to set for each year. This year Yingluck instructed water management in the North West to fix the maximum fill limit of each Dam at 65% of capacity. This means that each time the level of them Dam(s) reached 65% The excess water had to be released. Thailand's water management system is adequate when maintained properly. It should also be noted that Thailand has an extensive resource of hydraulic engineers especially when backed up by her well know contractors. The problem is the usual Thai issue of lack of cooperation and a multitude of bosses. Yingluck changed that this year by giving the disparate departments specific instructions. Then I suggest the technology needs up grading to the 1980s It could be done in the chemical plant I worked on in the UK then. You don't need someone to manually open a valve. Electronics tied into air operated valves will do the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicog Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Why don't they control the levels from the start of the monsoon season? That's because they're stupid and greedy... Nail<-Head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagwan Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 and don't forget that usually you need to pay bribe to get promoted. Knowledge isn't important. And for many ladies the bribe is not monetary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunkist Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Why don't they control the levels from the start of the monsoon season? There are too few people in Thailand clever enough to think of this and none of them are in a position to make this sort of decision. I think we could pick a new government made up entiry of TV forum members and they would do a much better job I was having a ponder about this, and also the Thai education system lacking critical thinking and any questioning of authority. I honestly believe that there ARE clever intelligent capable people in Thailand, who really did excel in their chosen specialization at University. The problem is that they do not question authority or raise a point of opposition if they believe something is wrong. So when for example, the flood water specialists probably come out with a sensible plan to manage the water year around, if that does not support the latest requirements of uneducated, morally bereft politicians, then when the politicians or Ministers give a directive on how the flood waters should be managed, the real specialists just fall in to compliance mode and do as they are told. The Politicians are making decisions based purely on what will gain them the best political or monetary advantage, whilst the 'specialists' are making decisions based on what course of action is more likely to keep their cosy little job secure. The problem is endemic and embedded and there is little we can do, the country is <deleted>! Kinda when they told the worlds foremost experts on water control (the Dutch) no they did not need their expertize. Did everyone miss the part about seeding the clouds to get more rain. More rain, monsoon, flood control. Hopefully not. Agree they need outside engineering help from somewhere. The King is the only one who had a good plan to help flooding with the jowells of monkey simple idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billd766 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 I guess everyone on this thread is a qualified hydrologist? I drink a lot if that is the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morakot Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Not to worry. Sinkholes might be potential tourist attractions in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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