Thaksin Should Use Own Money To Speculate On Crop, Thai Economist Says

[rossigee]

Thaksin Shinawatra to use his own money to speculate in the rice market

Try to get one Baht from him and his familly! Good luck I say.

That's easy. Everyone in the north/east knows the answer to that one. Just stand in line for him at election time, and you'll get a baht or two

--

Ross

[OzMick]

Why is everyone bashing the rice scheme?

bias.

mias

[Ackybang]

Does any one know of a Rice Farmer who has been paid 15000 Baht per tonne ?, I Don't.

I harvest rice - albeit a small amount, and I have been selling it at the mills around here, raw - good grade Hom Mali, for upto 15.6 baht a kilo as per late. I'm actually just off now to sell another two sacks. The mills grade, and sell it, and all of it's derivatives. I buy cleaned, grade A+ rice at around 30 baht a kilo, usually in 15 kilo sacks, as bigger than that ,once they're open they tend to spoil before they're finished (family of three adults), which is actually a better deal than using the villages around here to clean it - they take around half of the cleaned product, aswell as all the derivatives as a service charge, or sell it cleaned at 25 baht a kilo, and it's been substandardly graded, and nowhere near as clean as the big mills churn it out.

[OzMick]

I believe that the Shinawatra family and other members of this government have rice farms as part of their assets. Have they declared this conflict of interest in parliament, recused themselves from voting, and/or excluded themselves as beneficiaries of this scheme?

If not, why should they not be seen as corruptly profiting from a scam which is costing Thailand many billions of taxpayer's baht?

[whybother]

Does any one know of a Rice Farmer who has been paid 15000 Baht per tonne ?, I Don't.

I harvest rice - albeit a small amount, and I have been selling it at the mills around here, raw - good grade Hom Mali, for upto 15.6 baht a kilo as per late. I'm actually just off now to sell another two sacks. The mills grade, and sell it, and all of it's derivatives. I buy cleaned, grade A+ rice at around 30 baht a kilo, usually in 15 kilo sacks, as bigger than that ,once they're open they tend to spoil before they're finished (family of three adults), which is actually a better deal than using the villages around here to clean it - they take around half of the cleaned product, aswell as all the derivatives as a service charge, or sell it cleaned at 25 baht a kilo, and it's been substandardly graded, and nowhere near as clean as the big mills churn it out.

Buying a kilo of rice at 15.6 baht a kilo is a lot different than buying a tonne of rice.

[belg]

so now they are gambling that there would be a drought that destroys the crops, so the old rice can be sold as gold or what???

rice rotts, no ???

[Arkady]

Why is everyone bashing the rice scheme?

Thaksin says it will come good, he is always right

So the rice scheme must be a great idea

It is a great idea for him. He rakes off a lot of cash offshore from the loss making export concessions and allows a lot of party insiders to enrich themselves. Meanwhile the peasants are dumb enough to be led to believe it is something good for them too and want to keep on voting for PT. Thaksin is also able to take a huge hedge fund type bet that rice prices will spike up some time in the next three years before the government stocks start rotting. Then he will cash out big time. Meanwhile he takes no personal risk and doesn't have to put up any cash of his own. If the bet doesn't work out and theThai economy implodes due to out of control government debt, then Thaksin comes in and buys up assets at distressed prices from his mates who have gone bust. You can't get much better than that.

Edited October 29, 2012 by Arkady

[Arkady]

I believe that the Shinawatra family and other members of this government have rice farms as part of their assets. Have they declared this conflict of interest in parliament, recused themselves from voting, and/or excluded themselves as beneficiaries of this scheme?

If not, why should they not be seen as corruptly profiting from a scam which is costing Thailand many billions of taxpayer's baht?

Probably many of them do own rice land. However, why do they need their own land to benefit from this scheme? There is good money to be made from pledging rice from plots of absent owners who haven't cultivated their fields for years; from farmers whose crops have failed; and, best of all, from selling rice smuggled from Laos, Cambodia and Burma. Should the corrupt rice millers in the party also recuse themselves from voting?

[Thai at Heart]

The basic premise, the rationale offered by Thaksin for stockpiling vast amounts or Rice is also patently unrealistic.

We are told that in the (unspecified) future there will be a disaster - man-made or natural, we are not told - and as a result there will be a major shortage of important Foodstuffs. This is what Thailand has been planning for and will immediately offer its Stockpile of Rice to the world at a price which will make a profit even after the high prices paid to Farmers.

What nonsense!

Imagine the worldwide reaction to Thailands' greedy exploitation of a disaster in this way! International condemnation, Trade and Tourism boycotts possibly even UN Sanctions.

Thaksins' whole Business life has been built on greed protected by his own impunity, and he imagines that model can be projected into the world Commodities Market just as easily and without adverse effects on a Country.

Patrick

It also presumes that should this international crisis occur, they will HAVE to buy Thai rice. Crop failures, and shortages do happen, but this isn't like the potato famine of 100's of years ago. Market knowledge is so widespread, that there is absolutely no guarantee that any shortfall might not be made up be current supply at a price lower than that being demanded for Thai rice. There is about 100 USD premium for Thai rice.

If someone desperately needs 5mn tonnes of rice because of a crop failure, they could buy Vietnamese at a 75usd premium?

[Ackybang]

Does any one know of a Rice Farmer who has been paid 15000 Baht per tonne ?, I Don't.

I harvest rice - albeit a small amount, and I have been selling it at the mills around here, raw - good grade Hom Mali, for upto 15.6 baht a kilo as per late. I'm actually just off now to sell another two sacks. The mills grade, and sell it, and all of it's derivatives. I buy cleaned, grade A+ rice at around 30 baht a kilo, usually in 15 kilo sacks, as bigger than that ,once they're open they tend to spoil before they're finished (family of three adults), which is actually a better deal than using the villages around here to clean it - they take around half of the cleaned product, aswell as all the derivatives as a service charge, or sell it cleaned at 25 baht a kilo, and it's been substandardly graded, and nowhere near as clean as the big mills churn it out.

Buying a kilo of rice at 15.6 baht a kilo is a lot different than buying a tonne of rice.

Perfectly correct - a thousand times different, but

[OzMick]

I believe that the Shinawatra family and other members of this government have rice farms as part of their assets. Have they declared this conflict of interest in parliament, recused themselves from voting, and/or excluded themselves as beneficiaries of this scheme?

If not, why should they not be seen as corruptly profiting from a scam which is costing Thailand many billions of taxpayer's baht?

Probably many of them do own rice land. However, why do they need their own land to benefit from this scheme? There is good money to be made from pledging rice from plots of absent owners who haven't cultivated their fields for years; from farmers whose crops have failed; and, best of all, from selling rice smuggled from Laos, Cambodia and Burma. Should the corrupt rice millers in the party also recuse themselves from voting?

A resounding YES! Any member of a government which is proposing a policy likely to cost the nation huge amounts and from which they will personally profit should declare this conflict of interest and recuse themselves from the vote or, better still, abstain from claiming benefits.

As this has never been put to parliament, and government members are receiving payment from a scheme likely to cause huge damage to the Thai economy, those recipients are corrupt under the law and should be jailed for their participation. Note that the claimed aim of this scheme is to lift the income of poor farmers, but some 40% is going to farmers considered wealthy. When they happen to be members of the government implementing the scheme, that is the epitome of corruption.

[whybother]

Buying a kilo of rice at 15.6 baht a kilo is a lot different than buying a tonne of rice.

Perfectly correct - a thousand times different, but

... but what?

[IsaanUSA]

The Thai and Vietnamese cabinets held a joint meeting in Hanoi on Saturday, but there was no solid agreement. They only decided to set up a committee to push for talks on rice trading.

Of course no agreement was reached. Why would the Vietnamese want to restrict themselves?

[Ackybang]

Buying a kilo of rice at 15.6 baht a kilo is a lot different than buying a tonne of rice.

Perfectly correct - a thousand times different, but

... but what?

But, apart from the fact I edited my post, and it wouldn't give me permission to repost (?) - I usually sell a couple of hundred kilos at a time, and have sold quite a few tonnes this Year, and have always received cold, hard, cash. Are you being disingenuous, or do you really not know ? Domestically, rice is bought and sold on a kilo basis, and the per kilo price they advertise on the day at the mills, is the per kilo price you get, regardless of how many kilos you have - I believe a metric tonne is a thousand ? Today, incidently, I received 15.5 baht per kilo, on rice I've been storing since last December.

I must apologise, Whybother... I thought that the phrasing of my original contributive post would perhaps be conducive to being understood in context by anyone, and would lend quite easily to working out the math, without me having to elaborate any further...

At the particular, smaller mill I sold to today, my truck joined a queue of many different sized trucks, and I saw maybe fifty tonnes weighed out before mine, checked for quality, and moisture content, as is normal practice - tipped out onto a forecourt containing, perhaps a couple of thousand tonnes of freshly harvested rice, and everyone was payed in cash. No promissory notes. I might not be the brightest spark, but I'm finding it hard to work out the concept of the non sequitur, pertaining to your former post - could you assist ?

[whybother]

Buying a kilo of rice at 15.6 baht a kilo is a lot different than buying a tonne of rice.

Perfectly correct - a thousand times different, but

... but what?

But, apart from the fact I edited my post, and it wouldn't give me permission to repost (?) - I usually sell a couple of hundred kilos at a time, and have sold quite a few tonnes this Year, and have always received cold, hard, cash. Are you being disingenuous, or do you really not know ? Domestically, rice is bought and sold on a kilo basis, and the per kilo price they advertise on the day at the mills, is the per kilo price you get, regardless of how many kilos you have - I believe a metric tonne is a thousand ? Today, incidently, I received 15.5 baht per kilo, on rice I've been storing since last December.

I must apologise, Whybother... I thought that the phrasing of my original contributive post would perhaps be conducive to being understood in context by anyone, and would lend quite easily to working out the math, without me having to elaborate any further...

At the particular, smaller mill I sold to today, my truck joined a queue of many different sized trucks, and I saw maybe fifty tonnes weighed out before mine, checked for quality, and moisture content, as is normal practice - tipped out onto a forecourt containing, perhaps a couple of thousand tonnes of freshly harvested rice, and everyone was payed in cash. No promissory notes. I might not be the brightest spark, but I'm finding it hard to work out the concept of the non sequitur, pertaining to your former post - could you assist ?

In the original post that I responded to, you talked about selling a couple of sacks of rice. I didn't realise that you were talking about selling large amounts as well.

BTW ... isn't the government pledge amount for Hom Mali rice supposed to be 20,000 baht per tonne? (1000 kilos).

[Michael2020]

I believe Thaksin is preparing Thailaind for this event. The worst drought in US last from 1933 to 1940. During that time the world population is only 1.5 billion, now the world population is at 6 billion.

UN warns of looming worldwide food crisis in 2013

• Global grain reserves hit critically low levels

• Extreme weather means climate 'is no longer reliable'

• Rising food prices threaten disaster and unrest

http://www.guardian....-crisis-warning

Edited October 30, 2012 by Michael2020

[Thai at Heart]

The basic premise, the rationale offered by Thaksin for stockpiling vast amounts or Rice is also patently unrealistic.

We are told that in the (unspecified) future there will be a disaster - man-made or natural, we are not told - and as a result there will be a major shortage of important Foodstuffs. This is what Thailand has been planning for and will immediately offer its Stockpile of Rice to the world at a price which will make a profit even after the high prices paid to Farmers.

What nonsense!

Imagine the worldwide reaction to Thailands' greedy exploitation of a disaster in this way! International condemnation, Trade and Tourism boycotts possibly even UN Sanctions.

Thaksins' whole Business life has been built on greed protected by his own impunity, and he imagines that model can be projected into the world Commodities Market just as easily and without adverse effects on a Country.

Patrick

Is it really nonsense? The whole financial and trading world act on rumour, predictions, insdier knowledge and speculation. I know from experience the Saudis are very concerned about the future supply of food staples in KSA. That's why they were buying up vast tracts of farmland all over the place.

Future food and water shortages are a common prediction amongs economists and climate change pundits just as much as energy shortages and the prediction of WW3.

Do you think anyone really cares about the UN? They are not exactly the most effective organization. Thaksin knows that the ME will pay high prices for food should these predictions come true. They won't care about the UN or anyone else and they have the money. Thaksin's gamble is that this will happen but no one knows the timing. Rice can't be kept for ever so he may get caught out. I have said Thaksin because I can't believe any of the other numpties could work a strategy like this out.

The premise isn't entirely wrong, but it has to be timed to absolute perfection, and the problem lies in the fact that it is a perishable product and there is no official cartel protecting supply. To do it as an individual country needs a perfect storm to happen elsewhere in the world to push the price. Of course, this presumes that no one else has ANY cheaper stock than you do.

So then you have sold it at a higher price once. What you going to do? Do it again, and HOPE for a perfect storm of a global shortage? The nature of this market, makes it extremely difficult to hold it to ransom by shortening supply. Right now India and China are full to the brim with their strategic stock anyway, so there is no significant forseeable shortage, so unfortunately, unless a crop disaster befalls somewhere and decimates a crop completely, Thailand will sit on its stock, and even then, there is no guarantee that nowhere else in the world won't have some surplus here and there to supply also.

It is the Thai-Chinese mentality of business, create an artificial shortage of supply, it may work in telephones, but it is extremely difficult to make it work in a global commodity like rice.

[waza]

excellent report. I agree if this scherme is so beneficial for Thailand then Thaksin, the fugitive criminal, should put his stolen money where his mouth is. He should be at the front end investing in his own machination not at the back end reaping the corruption.

[kimamey]

Why is everyone bashing the rice scheme?

bias.

I agree there is some bias but then again I wouldn't describe you as even-handed either. That aside there do seem to be a lot of problems with this scheme which although it sounds good to give more money to poor farmers appears to work better for the better off within supply chain.

[Jaivin2011]

Just from a simple naive perspective:

Since the government is supported by the Red Shirts who are mostly from Isaan as said by Khun Chalerm recently, and since the PTP is so corrupted while employing populists policies using tax payer's money to ensure the support of the Red Shirts....wht all taxpapyers, middle class thais all over the country, smes and large corporations should do is to stop paying taxes enmasse, stop employing people from Isaan, stop using or buying any products from Isaan, simply starve the Red Shirts and their families and see how long the government can support them with their own company.

Everyone affecetd can start even from the smallest gestures like avoid buying food on the streets from Isaan Vendors, in my company, we have an unoffical code....no Isaan staff, no holidays or trips to Isaan, etc. Small initiatives can go a long way.

[Ackybang]

Just from a simple naive perspective:

Since the government is supported by the Red Shirts who are mostly from Isaan as said by Khun Chalerm recently, and since the PTP is so corrupted while employing populists policies using tax payer's money to ensure the support of the Red Shirts....wht all taxpapyers, middle class thais all over the country, smes and large corporations should do is to stop paying taxes enmasse, stop employing people from Isaan, stop using or buying any products from Isaan, simply starve the Red Shirts and their families and see how long the government can support them with their own company.

Everyone affecetd can start even from the smallest gestures like avoid buying food on the streets from Isaan Vendors, in my company, we have an unoffical code....no Isaan staff, no holidays or trips to Isaan, etc. Small initiatives can go a long way.

Well, Jaivin2011, your strange rant was mitigated to some degree by your opening six words, I'll give you that - but come on, what sort of cognitive does such a vindictive rhetoric come from - I prithee, dismount from thy retentive steed, and furnish me with some insight.

Do you come from, or do you now, or have you ever lived in the poorer parts of Isaan as a farmer, or in any other context ?

The grass roots majority of farmers in this Country, in general, are small holders, that have, over the Years, unless they have been privileged enough to be inherent of luck, wealth and anything but the most basic of educations, been subjugated by doctrine - which would include yours and mine, to the point of near starvation, and pushed into debt beyond way beyond their means, abilities or comprehension - and certainly at their own risk and expense. Where do you think most of the food on your table comes from, or the primary workforce of the Country, in most service sector industries - Bangkok perhaps ? I would put it to you, if the people of Issan were of the same mindset as yourself - this Country would close for business overnight. Do you think that these very same people, who generally don't have time to think about anything except where their next meal, or handout is coming from, and don't have the privilege to begin to even contemplate wallowing in the self satisfying warmth of the docile ideology we're all afforded should be held accountable for the transgressions, profoundly immoral ethos and games of a one percenter run amok, because they lost the ridiculous concept of face, and a bunch of see through, childish, spoiled bastard wannabe 'elites' constantly bickering at each other ? I think it's the opposite, I think it's the very people who don't have to live like the poor in this Country - the people who can sit at a computer cruising forums, usually on a full stomach, surrounded by material that makes them feel secure, and immune from the effects of their own inability to transcend their instilled callousness, and lack of understanding, experience and empathy. Red and yellow and pink and green, purple and orange and blue - it's all the same, it's the game written by certain men, for certain men, at the expense of many men - it's all about appropriation and control - just the names, methods and voices of your masters change, to suit the time. Do you think that because the reds had their votes bought, the blues somehow didn't ? Everybody did. I would urge you to look at the bigger picture, because I believe this is no nomore than just another sensationalist smokescreen - amongst the many others, for the real agenda at hand - and I think it's probably got very little to do with rice.

In regards to rice pledging - the beneficiaries of this scheme, pertaining to farmers, are not the independents so much (although the rice mills are paying a bit more now) - they are the poor ones that are signed up with various government agencies, like the Thai farmers bank, usually as a village cooperative, and as a collective, are held responsible for everyone elses debts, should they default - because, as a member of a collective, to be able to redeem the promissory, they are conditionally forced to borrow money (albeit at a low interest rate), aswell as forced to buy fertiliser (at a cheap rate, but nevertheless, at a profit to the government) - so then they are controlled. As an individual member, the charges are increased. To say they actually receive 15 or 20,000 baht a tonne, is subject to the prevalent mitigater 'upto' - in real terms, their rice, after the expense of planting / harvesting / transportation, and then the mill grading / and allowing for moisture content, and then paying off the original debt to the bank - I must wonder how much money per tonne they actually end up with. Still, at those rates, probably more than they used to. This is all dependent on a good crop - if the crop fails, so does the farmer's livelyhood - not the taxpayers.

In regards to weather / natural disasters - this Year, certainly in my area, and in many others as far as I know, many farmers have lost entire, or had their crops severely damaged (not just rice) by an unusually prolonged hot / dry spell, and these are usually many fold generations of people that have lived dependent upon, and are highly connected to the land and the elements - not an amateur like me, who hobby farms as more of a way of trying to offset my footprint, and help the Planet, than being dependent on it as a living.

You make of these statistics, or conspire as you will, I'm not sure about the domestic consumption of rice, in terms of tonnage - but it's all sellable, and even if it's bought at 20,000 baht a tonne, it's probably still got a potential margin of at least 100 percent - it's graded right down to the dust that they sell as animal feed. The husks are sold as fertiliser, or to brick / charcoal factories, etc - and you can store it for quite a long time - I store it for a Year, without any ill effects. I will say this, when you encourage farmers to grow a particular crop, you're generally discouraging them from growing another - and maybe that's part of a long term objective. I've seen it with biofuel crops, and rubber - planted all over the World a few Years ago, and especially here. Regardless of the trends in these commodity values, I find that fuel is no cheaper, my car / bike tyres are no cheaper, and food costs are being pushed to constantly rise steadily, here, and throughout the World.

[IsaanUSA]

in my company, we have an unoffical code....no Isaan staff, no holidays or trips to Isaan, etc.

Very odd company

[MAJIC]

An important side effect of this scheme is that it is further dividing Thai Society - more than likely a deliberate aim of Thaksin.

Even though the majority of Red Shirt farmers are not getting anywhere near the Baht 15,000 per tonne the scheme trumpets they firmly believe it is all designed by Thaksin and will eventually improve the lot of the Farming community.

Every time an Economist or even a body like TDRI or the Rice Exporters Association comes out and demonstrates the total unsustainability of the Pledging scheme the Red Shirts are instantly up in arms, claiming that attempts by these people to have the scheme rescinded are yet more proof that the "Amart" are determined to keep the "Prai" down and destroy anything done by Thaksin to improve their situation.

Like most of Thaksins' Populist and equally unsustainable policies this scheme will be very difficult to dismantle without creating substantial social unrest.

I am coming more and more to the conclusion that all these schemes are not just a deliberate, vengeful attempt by Thaksin to bankrupt the Country which rejected him (and at the same time enriching himself and his family of course) but are also designed to drive deeper and deeper wedges into the fabric of Thai society.

Patrick

Well assuming he his a smart man,as worshipped by his followers. IMO he is just a controlling chancer, second guesses everything,and most of his radical ideas fall on their ass,at Thailands expense, sooner or later the general public will wise up,after the suffering and empty promises,comes enlightenment.

[nurofiend]

Just from a simple naive perspective:

Since the government is supported by the Red Shirts who are mostly from Isaan as said by Khun Chalerm recently, and since the PTP is so corrupted while employing populists policies using tax payer's money to ensure the support of the Red Shirts....wht all taxpapyers, middle class thais all over the country, smes and large corporations should do is to stop paying taxes enmasse, stop employing people from Isaan, stop using or buying any products from Isaan, simply starve the Red Shirts and their families and see how long the government can support them with their own company.

Everyone affecetd can start even from the smallest gestures like avoid buying food on the streets from Isaan Vendors, in my company, we have an unoffical code....no Isaan staff, no holidays or trips to Isaan, etc. Small initiatives can go a long way.

i thought i couldn't be shocked anymore on this forum but there we have it.

[cougar52]

Why is everyone bashing the rice scheme?

Thaksin says it will come good, he is always right

So the rice scheme must be a great idea

Just like that wonderful ELITE CARD, lol

[cougar52]

And this in the news just moments ago::

BANGKOK: -- The Commerce Ministry is secretly arranging to sell the government's rice to local traders at below cost, aiming to clear up its overwhelming stockpiles rapidly in preparation for upcoming rice production under the pledging project.

Even I were just plan stupid, this is costing the Country big time and the Red Shirt Government is profiting on the backs of the Tax Payers.