Thai Govt Will Not Heed Warnings On Rice Subsidy Scheme

[Thai at Heart]

the kingdom's public debt could rise to 61 per cent of gross domestic product by 2019

I was waiting for him to say 2014. An economic prediction 7 years out.

On average, by then we should have had 2 coups......

Can i ask him where the us debt to gdp ratio will be by 2019 also?

If the Government goes on like they have done the last 1,5 years (almost) there won´t be any money left to spend 2019.

Well whilst i don't believe the rice policy us the best way for them to achieve anything, predicting collapse of the thai economy by, wait for it, 2019 is hardly catastrophic is it now.

Crazy prediction anyway. An extra 1% growth over7 years makes nonsense of any prediction this far beyond the horizon.

Aaaaaaggggggh. The financial sky is falling in 7 years. Jesus, the usa and the eu are on the verge of financial implosion, and this is the direst criticism.

60% of gdp by 2019. Better cancel every social program and have no debts at all.

No new schools, no roads, no hospitals.

Absolutely nonsense prediction, but hardly financially terrifying.

[Thai at Heart]

www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/10/11/supernatural-powers-spare-national-banks-international-debt-crisis.html

In fact, many countries have debt to GDP ratios that exceed ideal levels, such as Japan (220.30 percent), Greece (142.80 percent), Italy (119 percent), Belgium (96.80 percent), Ireland (96.20 percent), Portugal (93 percent), Iceland (87.80 percent), Sri Lanka (85 percent), Canada (84 percent), Germany (83.20 percent), France (81.70 percent), Hungary (80.20 percent), United Kingdom (80 percent), Israel (77.90 percent), Egypt (73.80 percent), Austria (72.30 percent), India (69.20 percent), Brazil (66.10 percent), Mongolia (64.80 percent), the Netherlands (63.70 percent) and Spain (60.10 percent).

What about ASEAN countries? Indonesia is leading with a debt to GDP ratio of 26.90 percent and state budget deficit below 3 percent in 2010.

Please compare this with Thailand (44.10 percent), the Philippines (47.30 percent), Vietnam (52.80 percent), Malaysia (54.20 percent) and Singapore (97.20 percent).

So anyone, where will these counties debt levels be by 2019?

[backtonormal]

Nonsense predictions from an anomymous author. Jolly Rice boys getting their media buddies to keep their plight in the public domain. The pledging will continue until the current group of approx 35 exporters is put out of business. They cant buy rice now because they willnot pay the going rate, so if they want to keep making millions they will have to sell the rice buffer they have always held in case of social strife. Knowing with this buffer would mean the great unwashed would have to return to the fields before the stocks ran out. It is only necessary to have stocks for emergencys. The fact that this government is spending so much money to oust this crew shows what a threat they are to the stability of the country and improving peoples lifestyle. May not be all the rice exporters only the big ones who alledgedly help to finance PAD rallys and dare one say it, coups. There will be other individuals who will feel the might of Thaksin, only fools cross this individual

[GentlemanJim]

Has Thailand created a unique thing that could be called a Feudal Democracy? This is where the (land) Barons (mill owners and politicians) are given large amounts of treasury money (the rice pledge), rather than the farmers, and come the next elections, the job of the wealthy Barons will be to whip the peasant in to line and make sure they vote once again for the Shiniwatra's? Only next time, there will likely be a lot more at stake than a Prime Minister slot.

[hellodolly]

the kingdom's public debt could rise to 61 per cent of gross domestic product by 2019

I was waiting for him to say 2014. An economic prediction 7 years out.

On average, by then we should have had 2 coups......

Can i ask him where the us debt to gdp ratio will be by 2019 also?

If the Government goes on like they have done the last 1,5 years (almost) there won´t be any money left to spend 2019.

Well whilst i don't believe the rice policy us the best way for them to achieve anything, predicting collapse of the thai economy by, wait for it, 2019 is hardly catastrophic is it now.

Crazy prediction anyway. An extra 1% growth over7 years makes nonsense of any prediction this far beyond the horizon.

Aaaaaaggggggh. The financial sky is falling in 7 years. Jesus, the usa and the eu are on the verge of financial implosion, and this is the direst criticism.

60% of gdp by 2019. Better cancel every social program and have no debts at all.

No new schools, no roads, no hospitals.

Absolutely nonsense prediction, but hardly financially terrifying.

"No new schools, no roads, no hospitals."

makes no difference to this government

[Chupup]

This is just a scam to line the pockets of t s & cronies who do not give a shit about the country or the farmers so long as they can empty the public coffers as quick as they can, but this is what the Thai people voted for eventhough they did not realise it at the time.

[Thai at Heart]

the kingdom's public debt could rise to 61 per cent of gross domestic product by 2019

I was waiting for him to say 2014. An economic prediction 7 years out.

On average, by then we should have had 2 coups......

Can i ask him where the us debt to gdp ratio will be by 2019 also?

If the Government goes on like they have done the last 1,5 years (almost) there won´t be any money left to spend 2019.

Well whilst i don't believe the rice policy us the best way for them to achieve anything, predicting collapse of the thai economy by, wait for it, 2019 is hardly catastrophic is it now.

Crazy prediction anyway. An extra 1% growth over7 years makes nonsense of any prediction this far beyond the horizon.

Aaaaaaggggggh. The financial sky is falling in 7 years. Jesus, the usa and the eu are on the verge of financial implosion, and this is the direst criticism.

60% of gdp by 2019. Better cancel every social program and have no debts at all.

No new schools, no roads, no hospitals.

Absolutely nonsense prediction, but hardly financially terrifying.

"No new schools, no roads, no hospitals."

makes no difference to this government

Well, to argue the merits of the system is one thing, but to argue that it is going to wreck the financial state of the Thai government is obviously stretching it too far. Lest we forget, the money circulates principally within the Thai economy, and by giving it to the poorest, will generate a large multiplier effect.

Making an economic prediction to 2019, assuming all other things stay equal really is crystal ball gazing. Government debt can be changed in a second by modifying tax rates, and last by not least collecting it better. Beyond that, predicting the debt level to GDP this far out is extremely difficult in an economy like Thailand because it growth is so closely related to the growth of other countries due to its reliance on exports. This year we have 4% because the US and the EU are in the poop. Who knows what the economic landscape is going to look like in 2 years time?

By then the EU might not even exist anymore as a financial trading block, the US could be putting its house in order, and growth in both areas could be fantastic, so Thailand might be growing 6 to 7%, but to bemoan the financial impact of a single policy because it may push debt to gdp to 60% in 7 years time, is hardly a compelling reason not to do it. Likewise, it could go the other way, but I don't think the US and the EU can be in worse shape in 7 years time than they are today.

Now it doesn't appear that the policy is created to be some wonderful social benefit to farmers because the benefits are being shared with the middle men too much. The could change with one stroke of a pen to change the law about who can and cannot handle purchasing from farmers. If they open up the restricted parts of the economy to FDI, money would probably flood into the country, and GDP would probably boom. There are so many imponderables that a prediction like this is so very inexact. A patently more reasoned debate would be how to make the policy more effective and economically beneficial, than stating that the country is going to be swallowed in debt, because the report quoted shows it be actually a fairly moderate increase.

But as I wrote earlier, I was worried it would reach 60% of GDP in 2 years which would be extreme. By 2019? We will probably be under a military government in 6 months time, so they can save us from this light shower of public financed spending.

Edited November 15, 2012 by Thai at Heart

[Thai at Heart]

Notice the "rack and ruin" commentators are very quiet that this policy is predicted to only push government debt to 60% in 7 years time.