China's Wen Eclipsed By Busy Obama Visit: Thai Analysis

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

Wen eclipsed by busy Obama visit

Supalak Ganjanakhundee

The Nation

Govt seems keen to please US; China PM's visit to be low-key

BANGKOK: -- The government seems to be placing greater importance on the visit of US President Barack Obama than that of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, prompting observers to suggest there is an imbalance in the Kingdom's engagement with the two rival superpowers.

The Cabinet has decided to commit to joining a range of Washington-sponsored schemes to support the US role in the region, in both the economic and security spheres.

On the economic front, the government will announce during Obama's visit its intention to join the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) regional free-trade scheme, although the local business community, civic groups and academics have warned of its negative implications for the Thai economy.

The Commerce Ministry suggested the Cabinet include the government's intention to join the TPP in a joint statement to be issued after a meeting between Obama and Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, although many agencies have complained that they have not been consulted over the sensitive issue of a free-trade agreement.

Since 2005, the US has expressed its desire to have Thailand and many other nations in the region join such a comprehensive free-trade agreement, but Bangkok has always declined, saying it needed time to study the plan.

The Cabinet on Monday also agreed to re-activate the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement Joint Council to champion liberalisation of trade and investment.

On the security front, Defence Minister Sukampol Suwannathat and US Secretary of Defence Leon Panetta jointly announced the 2012 Vision for the Thai-US Defence Alliance in the 21st century, in which Thailand will provide its support to the US presence in the region. The Obama administration has made clear that it wants to have a greater military presence in Asia-Pacific amid increasing Chinese influence in the region.

At the East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh next week, which Obama will attend, Yingluck will do what many previous Thai governments have been reluctant to do, by expressing a willingness to join the Washington-sponsored Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) to control the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Thailand delayed its decision for years to maintain comfortable relations with countries that might be considered targets of the PSI.

The visit of Chinese Premier Wen will begin only a day after Obama finishes his visit to Thailand. Like Obama, Wen will stay overnight in Bangkok. He will also have a bilateral meeting with Yingluck to follow up on existing cooperation, but no specific issues have been highlighted. Cooperation between the two nations on many fronts, such as the high-speed train project, water management, energy and education are in discussions, but are still far from being concluded, according to a Chinese official.

Premier Wen will attend the opening ceremony of the Chinese Cultural Centre in Bangkok and preside over the signing of some low-key bilateral agreements, such as the Agreement on Educational Cooperation and the Exchange of the Instruments of Ratification of the Treaty on the Transfer of Sentenced Persons.

However, a senior official at the Thai Foreign Ministry said it's unfair to compare the two visits as the two leaders are in different situations. Obama was just re-elected for a second term in the White House, while Wen is about to step down following the selection of a new Chinese leadership. Although Chinese Ambassador Guan Mu said the main policy and direction of relations with Thailand would not change, the Foreign Ministry official anticipated that Wen would not be in a position to commit to anything major during his visit.

Balancing act

Obama

_ Granted an audience with HM the King

_ Staying overnight in Bangkok

_ Visiting cultural sites

_ Govt to announce plans to join TPP, PSI

_ Announcement of 21st Century Security Partnership ahead of visit

Wen

_ Granted an audience with HM the King

_ Courtesy call on Privy Council President Gen Prem Tinsulanonda

_ Staying overnight in Bangkok

_ Opening the Chinese Cultural Centre

_ Witness signing of pacts on education and prisoner transfers

-- The Nation 2012-11-17

[keemapoot]

Honestly, Obama does bring not only more clout to Thailand, but a more comprehensive and articulated plan of action in many areas for SE Asia and Asia Pacific. China's power and plans may be "soft" but we don't hear them analyzed such as this often, nor does China do anywhere near as good a job of marketing and "selling them" as America does.

Throughout his visit, Obama will also likely want to carefully explore perceptions and attitudes with respect to the growing power and assertiveness of China in Southeast Asia. Analysts in Beijing are likely to see the visit to Burma, in particular, through the lens of strategic power.

While the U.S. outreach efforts are motivated by a desire to improve ties with each country on its own terms, it is also clear that there are areas where U.S. and Southeast Asian countries' interests overlap. These include continuing access to the South China Sea and the peaceful resolution of the territorial disputes there between China and its neighbors. Obama may find it important to emphasize the U.S. goal of working with all three Southeast Asian nations to help sustain and further improve a rules-based international security architecture in the Asia-Pacific.

Finally, the United States brings tremendous resources and strong values to its engagements with its Southeast Asian counterparts. Important forms of U.S. soft power include U.S. economic development and environmental remediation assistance; intelligence sharing against criminal, terrorist, and human smuggling networks; support for disaster relief; and efforts to track and prevent the spread of infectious disease. Obama is likely to expand efforts to cooperate in these areas.

http://sitrep.global...-bellwether.htm

[keemapoot]

This article argues that America has been neglecting its old friend Thailand for too long, and sees Obama's trip as a chance to reaffirm relations and counterbalance China's influence in Thailand.

Thailand: Where the Real Opportunity Lies

Unlike ASEAN and Burma, Thailand has already demonstrated its enormous value to the U.S. It is a U.S. security treaty partner; co-host of the largest annual joint military exercise in the world, Cobra Gold, as well more than 40 other smaller ones; a demonstrated partner in counterterrorism; and a through point for America’s military logistics chain into Afghanistan and the Middle East. And it is America’s oldest trading ally in the region, dating back to the 1833 Treaty on Amity and Commerce.

Despite all this, since the end the Vietnam War, Thailand has suffered from American diplomatic neglect. When President Bill Clinton went there in 1996, he was the first President to visit in 27 years. President Bush visited in 2003 and again in 2008. The presidential visits were welcomed, but on the Thai side, they seemed to be more about the region beyond Thailand—APEC, Burma, and China. One can make too much of presidential visits, but in this case, the perception of American disinterest has facilitated drift in the alliance.

President Obama’s visit can begin to remedy this problem. In the end, however, if relations are not sustained and substantiated, it will just be another presidential visit, a bump in the road of Thailand’s long-term recalculation of its regional alignments—in essence, closer ties with the region’s fastest growing reality, the People’s Republic of China.

<a href="http://www.heritage....-s-trip-to-asia

[asiawatcher]

I doubt much can be achieved in one day anyway. Pomp and ceremony are really quite useless compared to issues that could be discussed and resolved. But for the PM the PR exercise and photo op will look good for her.

[Thai at Heart]

I think the fact he is off to see prem would put the government off him instantly.

[jerrysteve]

It couldn't be any more negaitive on the Thai Economy than the Schems the Thai Government has unleashed on the economy by its own hands.

Edited November 17, 2012 by jerrysteve