GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[yoshiwara]

I don't make predictions which appears to be as a rather irrelevant binary forecast. The trade would be how much do I change at 47/48 and how much should I hold back at the possibility of hitting 50? Since I mostly change HKD and we are almost at 4, buying baht in advance of current consumption needs will be an option for me at the beginning of July if the USD holds up. Sterling has other factors also pushing it around.

This is exactly my conundrum right now - I have moved across a pile of cash in GBP - I might change a quarter of it now at 48 if I can (It's still a dam_n sight better than the 44 I was expecting before coming to Thailand)

Looking at the charts, there is definite support around the 48 level (GBP / THB) but longer term it looks highly probable that it will creep back up to 50.

Bear in mind, I have zero experience as a Forex trader so I could be talking complete BS.

Chok dee krap!

Let's say that the amount you have in sterling is 100,000. So the difference between 48 and 50 is ~4%. So potential loss if you change at 48 and it goes to 50 is 4000 pounds. However if you sit on the sterling you get ~ 0%, but you could get ~ 2% interest if you deposited the cash converted to baht. So that potential loss not 4% but around 2% (subject to time considerations)and that is without thinking about the risk of GBPTHB retreating. You said yourself that you had expected 44 before the current storm broke, so the question might be do you want to sleep a little more relaxed at night? Or do you want to 'play' in the FX world? Maybe it is a case of a bird in the hand and all that. Remember even if it goes above 50 this is not going to affect you. You are all in at 50 anyway.

Thanks, well, I might not go all-in at 50. I might do another quarter then and see if it continues up. Worst case if it was at 50, is that it drops back to 48 and maybe I go all in then.

As for the interest... which accounts pay 2%? I've always assumed bank interst payments to be a joke anyway in the UK, unless we are talking millions.

My Barclays current account paid 0.03% , something like that. (but of course happy to charge 20% on their credit cards)

Yes, some savings accounts once paid 5% (like ING) but pretty bad now. 1 or 2%? Besides, this money of mine will all be spent within a year, I'll be constantly transferring it out of savings into my current account (ATM) so I doubt it would ever have time to accrue the interest.

Anyway, I digress!

So, another quick question - as my money has now arrived and is sitting in the FDC as GBP, will I get the exchange rate of "cash" or "TT" when I change it into THB?

Thanks very much.

The 2% I was referring to was the ~2+% you would get from a Thai bank on time deposit after you had converted your GBP to THB.

Your GBP sitting in your Thai bank account you can ask them to convert an amount when a certain rate is reached. As for pulling out sterling and converting it elsewhere that will cost you a premium so probably not worth it.

[chiang mai]

TT

[chiang mai]

Well here we are and it's the 25th of the month already and GBP/THB is now lower than it was two weeks ago when we started betting on direction, has the BOT, "run out of readies", I wonder, doubtful methinks, BOT seems very comfortable with 48 and it wont cost them much to keep it thereabouts, 50, hmmmm!

[yoshiwara]

Well here we are and it's the 25th of the month already and GBP/THB is now lower than it was two weeks ago when we started betting on direction, has the BOT, "run out of readies", I wonder, doubtful methinks, BOT seems very comfortable with 48 and it wont cost them much to keep it thereabouts, 50, hmmmm!

Very little change from 2 weeks ago.

https://www.google.com/finance?q=gbpthb&ei=zFjJUbilJZGrkgXG4gE

[Huayrat]

Well here we are and it's the 25th of the month already and GBP/THB is now lower than it was two weeks ago when we started betting on direction, has the BOT, "run out of readies", I wonder, doubtful methinks, BOT seems very comfortable with 48 and it wont cost them much to keep it thereabouts, 50, hmmmm!

considering that the British economy is in dire straits then i think 48 is ok.. Once it gets stronger it will reach 50 easily.. 51/52 by xmas easily

[chiang mai]

Well here we are and it's the 25th of the month already and GBP/THB is now lower than it was two weeks ago when we started betting on direction, has the BOT, "run out of readies", I wonder, doubtful methinks, BOT seems very comfortable with 48 and it wont cost them much to keep it thereabouts, 50, hmmmm!

considering that the British economy is in dire straits then i think 48 is ok.. Once it gets stronger it will reach 50 easily.. 51/52 by xmas easily

Of course it will dear, of course it will!

[mccw]

I found the following article interesting.

It seems both labour and conservatives are promising to cap welfare. I think this will have big effects for the economy in future years, the currency and people's lives and how needed planning for retirement. If its capped now then how value will be in 20 or 40 years time? Interested to hear views on currency effect. Fiscal responsibility should equal stronger currency no?

From Sky News App-

Welfare Cap 'Must Include Pension Spending'

Last Updated 19:49 25/06/2013

The state pension must be included in a welfare cap to avoid billions of further cuts to key public services, a think tank has warned.

The Policy Exchange suggests huge cuts will be needed to areas like health and education if pensions are not brought under the limit.

It warned the cap, set to be outlined by Chancellor George Osborne in Wednesday's spending review, will be "meaningless" if the bill for retirement payouts is omitted.

The paper, written by former Treasury official Matthew Oakley, pointed out that the state pension bill is due to rise from 5.6% of GDP in 2016-17 to 8.3% in 2061-2.

The extra costs created as the population ages are equivalent to an increase of around £40bn in today's money.

Mr Oakley said the promised cap on large sections of the social security bill would therefore only work in keeping overall spending down if pensions are included.

"If Britain is to tame its public debt and constrain growth in the state, welfare spending must be controlled," he said.

"It has risen by 133% as a proportion of GDP in the last 50 years. This makes a cap on Annual Managed Expenditure essential.

"But it has to include the full range of benefits, including pensioner benefits and the state pension.

"Without this, any proposed cap would be meaningless and fail to recognise the real drivers of rising costs. It's time for an honest conversation with the public."

Mr Osborne first put forward the idea of a welfare cap in the Budget in March but his plan would exclude basic pension spending.

Labour has recently backed the idea of a limit on "structural" welfare spending and earlier this month shadow chancellor Ed Balls suggested it would cover pensions.

He said: "Our plan is to include it. It's important to look across the whole welfare state to say what are the drivers of expenditure.

"The clear large bulk, the majority of most welfare spending, is in fact going to people over 60. That's the truth and we should look across the piece."

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander told MPs on Tuesday that the state pension would have been frozen instead of rising had Labour's plan to include it in the welfare cap been in place last year.

Shadow treasury minister Cathy Jamieson had earlier said that Labour supported the triple lock, which sees the value of the state pension increase annually by the larger of 2.5%, inflation or earnings.

There are also growing questions in Westminster about other pensioner benefits, including free TV licences and the winter fuel payments.

Labour has already said wealthy pensioners would lose the winter fuel handout if it wins power again in 2015.

And last weekend, Mr Osborne suggested everything but the basic state pension would be up for review after the next election.

Prime Minister David Cameron has vowed to keep universal benefits for the over-60s until 2016 but many senior Tories have reservations about extending this to 2020.

The think-tank's paper emerged after a ComRes poll for The Independent found the majority of pensioners did not want special protection from austerity.

Some 56% of those aged 65 and over agreed with the statement that pensioners should "be no more immune to the impact of government spending cuts than other members of society".

[yoshiwara]

I need the winter fuel payment to pay for my air-con.

[i claudius]

Well i do not know about you lot but i do not believe the poll that said pensioners want to be included in the cuts ,that is unless they asked loads of loaded questiones or rich pensioners ,which i assume they did as it was for the independant newspaper (never read it myself ever) i have never ever met a pensioner that wanted cuts (turkeys never vote for christmas either)

[mccw]

Well i do not know about you lot but i do not believe the poll that said pensioners want to be included in the cuts ,that is unless they asked loads of loaded questiones or rich pensioners ,which i assume they did as it was for the independant newspaper (never read it myself ever) i have never ever met a pensioner that wanted cuts (turkeys never vote for christmas either)

Last time i read The independent its pretty much seeming like a soft hearted liberal left wing paper so if anything I'd have thought they'd have tried to turn a result against such cuts.

[mccw]

I need the winter fuel payment to pay for my air-con.

"""":: Payment of winter fuel payments for people living abroad to be linked to a 'temperature test' from Autumn 2015 to ensure pensioners in hot countries do not get it.

""""""

From sky news app - spending review summery today.

[yoshiwara]

I need the winter fuel payment to pay for my air-con.

"""":: Payment of winter fuel payments for people living abroad to be linked to a 'temperature test' from Autumn 2015 to ensure pensioners in hot countries do not get it.

""""""

From sky news app - spending review summery today.

One assumes that means those who have declared they are living abroad.

[Naam]

I need the winter fuel payment to pay for my air-con.

"""":: Payment of winter fuel payments for people living abroad to be linked to a 'temperature test' from Autumn 2015 to ensure pensioners in hot countries do not get it.

""""""

From sky news app - spending review summery today.

do those living in hot countries get summer fuel payments because more airconditioning is required?

[Rinrada]

I need the winter fuel payment to pay for my air-con.

"""":: Payment of winter fuel payments for people living abroad to be linked to a 'temperature test' from Autumn 2015 to ensure pensioners in hot countries do not get it.

""""""

From sky news app - spending review summery today.

Chiang Mai should be OK then....not that I am living there or anything......

[chiang mai]

still waiting for 50

47.50 now, still confident?

[mccw]

From sky news-

Families are struggling with an "unprecedented" squeeze on their living standards amid rising costs and static wages, a report has warned.

The minimum cost of living has soared by a quarter since the economic downturn began and the true inflationary pressures on many households are much worse than official measures suggest, a report for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation argued.

The cost of the goods and services which people believe they need to ensure a minimum acceptable standard of living has rocketed by 25% since the foundation's research was first published in 2008 - the same year as the economic crash - and at a much faster rate than the 17% rise in inflation over that time.

[Naam]

still waiting for 50

47.50 now, still confident?

saturday, markets closed. £ TT rate a tad above 47...

case "Pound 50 by the end of this month" closed.

next case: "Cowrie Shells at 37 Angolan Kwanza per ½ kilo"

forecast presented by AnotherOnePapuaNewGuineaHeadhunter.

gentlemen make your bets!

[Rinrada]

still waiting for 50

47.50 now, still confident?

saturday, markets closed. £ TT rate a tad above 47...

case "Pound 50 by the end of this month" closed.

next case: "Cowrie Shells at 37 Angolan Kwanza per ½ kilo"

forecast presented by AnotherOnePapuaNewGuineaHeadhunter.

gentlemen make your bets!

When I last worked in Nigeria the rate was !pound = 1 Niara....wonder what it is now?...got some left over.....also Biafra Money...in Pounds....good old colony days....Carruthers...wot

JFI..used my N/W card last week and got just over 48 Bt/pound but appears to have falling again.....case of quiety waiting..innit

[Naam]

saturday, markets closed. £ TT rate a tad above 47...

case "Pound 50 by the end of this month" closed.

next case: "Cowrie Shells at 37 Angolan Kwanza per ½ kilo"

forecast presented by AnotherOnePapuaNewGuineaHeadhunter.

gentlemen make your bets!

When I last worked in Nigeria the rate was !pound = 1 Niara....wonder what it is now?...got some left over.....also Biafra Money...in Pounds....good old colony days....Carruthers...wot

JFI..used my N/W card last week and got just over 48 Bt/pound but appears to have falling again.....case of quiety waiting..innit

we must have been in Nigeria around the same time. presently one pound buys 246 Naira!

[breadbin]

When I was changing THB to Gbp I got 43. That was excellent!

Now I am going for a holiday I was 1 Gbp - 50 THB!!'

The only way is up (as Yazz sang in the. 90's) great years.

[mccw]

This from Sky story about NHS reform.

"""Ex-pats, who currently face paying for care if they live permanently overseas, are set to be given guaranteed access to free NHS healthcare, but only once they have paid 10 years of national insurance contributions."""

[churchill]

This from Sky story about NHS reform.

"""Ex-pats, who currently face paying for care if they live permanently overseas, are set to be given guaranteed access to free NHS healthcare, but only once they have paid 10 years of national insurance contributions."""

That's new ? and very good news if it happens ....

Here's a link to the story in the Guardian .. http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jun/29/jeremy-hunt-immigrants-free-nhs-services

[chiang mai]

This from Sky story about NHS reform.

"""Ex-pats, who currently face paying for care if they live permanently overseas, are set to be given guaranteed access to free NHS healthcare, but only once they have paid 10 years of national insurance contributions."""

That's new ? and very good news if it happens ....

Here's a link to the story in the Guardian .. http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jun/29/jeremy-hunt-immigrants-free-nhs-services

And here's the thread that talks about it lest we should clutter up the GBP/THB thread :

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/650197-uk-nhs-changes-proposed/

Edited June 30, 2013 by chiang mai

[mccw]

Buying £ at 46.5 when I walked past SCB earlier today.

[mccw]

Any of those who were holding out for 50 thinking to get on with it now while the goings good or you think the trend is definitely going past 50 and this is just a momentary pull back?

[i claudius]

Any of those who were holding out for 50 thinking to get on with it now while the goings good or you think the trend is definitely going past 50 and this is just a momentary pull back?

I f any of us on here actually knew that ,we would be geniuses.

[chiang mai]

The best chance you have is that the exporters start to get upset at the prospect of a baht that's too strong, I wouldn't hold my breath for any positive news out of the uK that can help.

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Any of those who were holding out for 50 thinking to get on with it now while the goings good or you think the trend is definitely going past 50 and this is just a momentary pull back?

I would still wait a while.

[chiang mai]

Any of those who were holding out for 50 thinking to get on with it now while the goings good or you think the trend is definitely going past 50 and this is just a momentary pull back?

I would still wait a while.

Days, weeks, months?

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Any of those who were holding out for 50 thinking to get on with it now while the goings good or you think the trend is definitely going past 50 and this is just a momentary pull back?

I would still wait a while.

Days, weeks, months?

Generally I feel, the West is rising and Asia is sinking.

So at the moment I will wait until I run out of Asian money to change any more of my western currency.

Or wait until I feel the exchange rate is right, which isn't now.