GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[mccw]

£ only and no income on local currency is risky in my opinion for almost any level of asset planning. Anyone moving to Thailand and planning life based on £ income and Thai bht exchange rate pre crises would have found this out the hard way.

Likely many still hold out hope on the pound due to entrenched emotional views rather than rational thinking though.

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[Naam]

mccw

Based on the fundamentals I see GBP dropping back towards 40 or lower.

which Thai fundamentals are much better than those of U.K. to warrant a 20% drop of GBP/THB, pray tell?

som tam? prik nam pla? tom yam gung? massaman curry with (YUCK) peanuts?

[Naam]

£ only and no income on local currency is risky in my opinion for almost any level of asset planning.

if the income exceeds £ 250,000 p.a. after taxes i don't see too much risk for a British bachelor living a modest life style in Thailand

[chiang mai]

mccw

Based on the fundamentals I see GBP dropping back towards 40 or lower.

which Thai fundamentals are much better than those of U.K. to warrant a 20% drop of GBP/THB, pray tell?

som tam? prik nam pla? tom yam gung? massaman curry with (YUCK) peanuts?

Fiscal freedom and governement lending/debt for starters:

http://www.heritage.org/index/visualize?countries=thailand|unitedkingdom&src=country

We might also add to the above the availability of a an inexpensive workforce and the absence of costly welfare program overheads.

EDIT: awww, look at that, 52 gave you a like, how sweet.

Edited November 7, 2013 by chiang mai

[mccw]

£ only and no income on local currency is risky in my opinion for almost any level of asset planning.

 

if the income exceeds £ 250,000 p.a. after taxes i don't see too much risk for a British bachelor living a modest life style in Thailand 

He should spread his income around a few different currencies in my opinion. 10-30 years who knows what could happen.

But yes; when I said almost any level I was thinking the smaller amounts rather than large. Smaller it goes the greater need for mitigating the risk really.

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[chiang mai]

£ only and no income on local currency is risky in my opinion for almost any level of asset planning.

if the income exceeds £ 250,000 p.a. after taxes i don't see too much risk for a British bachelor living a modest life style in Thailand

He should spread his income around a few different currencies in my opinion. 10-30 years who knows what could happen.

But yes; when I said almost any level I was thinking the smaller amounts rather than large. Smaller it goes the greater need for mitigating the risk really.

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How far will £10k spread?

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/678703-hazard-for-brits-returning-to-uk/page-7#entry6992677

[mccw]

mccw

Based on the fundamentals I see GBP dropping back towards 40 or lower.

 

which Thai fundamentals are much better than those of U.K. to warrant a 20% drop of GBP/THB, pray tell?

 

som tam? prik nam pla? tom yam gung? massaman curry with (YUCK) peanuts?

The fundamentals are on both sides. I think I covered the key points on my original post.

The 20% (or more) possible drop I base on a major QE and/ or further bank bail outs in the UK. Or even just from another rotation of cash out of UK and in to EMs at the turn of another down turn. Around 50 down to around 40 is only roughly what has occurred from the rotation of cash but the other way just these last couple of months, do its reasonable to assume similar can happen back again.

So a 15-20% strengthening on bht as cash cycles.

20-30% drop of £ on QE and/or further bail outs.

Both triggered on the western cycle/ UK side.

While Thailand just chugs along subject to the whims of the big flows pretty much. But not too badly effected by them. In fact growing more resilient as time goes by due to rising asian demand for products and services taking over from western reliance. We can see all these trend evidenced since a few years already.

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[mccw]

 

 

£ only and no income on local currency is risky in my opinion for almost any level of asset planning.

 

if the income exceeds £ 250,000 p.a. after taxes i don't see too much risk for a British bachelor living a modest life style in Thailand 

 

He should spread his income around a few different currencies in my opinion. 10-30 years who knows what could happen.

But yes; when I said almost any level I was thinking the smaller amounts rather than large. Smaller it goes the greater need for mitigating the risk really.

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How far will £10k spread?

 

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/678703-hazard-for-brits-returning-to-uk/page-7#entry6992677

 

That is a prime example of why UK is doomed long term !

The wasted expenditure on legal rubbish/ human rights <deleted>/ welfare spongers/ parasitic scum/ lack of self responsibility promoting culture and system etc etc etc one big rotten steaming mess just getting propped up by money printing.

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[mccw]

"Earned" the 10grand he thinks as well.

Sickening

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[rwdrwdrwd]

"Earned" the 10grand he thinks as well.

Sickening

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I must have missed the part where the case was explained in enough detail to enable you to question the merit of it. My reaction is that if 120k was spent investigating and then a decision to issue a settlement and warnings to the officials involved was made, it's likely that the claims warranted a settlement.

Edited November 7, 2013 by rwdrwdrwd

[kimamey]

And yet another reason that we should leave the Eurozone .

You don't say who you mean when you say 'we' but if you are referring to the UK it isn't in the eurozone.

Geographically it is - and that gives financial implications whether you like it or not

Perhaps we should ask that poster what he meant by the UK not being in the Eurozone, I suspect he has currency and geography confused, but!

It's fairly simple really. The Eurozone is the name for the 17 states who use the Euro as their currency. Although the states are in Europe geographically and are in the EU it isn't a geographical term. Switzerland for instance is geographically in Europe but isn't in the EU or the Eurozone.

The UK is in the EU but not in the Eurozone as we still use sterling. If the UK used the Euro this whole thread wouldn't exist as it's about the exchange rate between the GB pound and the Thai baht.

The Eurozone does affect the UK as we conduct a lot of trade with the EU and therefore the Eurozone. The consequences of this would be different if we were in the Eurozone as there wouldn't be a GBP to Euro exchange rate and also the UK's currency would be largely controlled by the European Central Bank instead of the Bank of England. This would in turn have an impact on other aspects of the economy as well.

I mentioned that the UK is not in the Eurozone as I see a lot of comments on the EU in particular by people who clearly don't understand how it works. The most common statement is that the EU is run by unelected bureaucrats, which it isn't. I do think it's important to understand what you're taking about even if the statement is short with nothing to back it up.

I do hope my understanding of the difference between geographical, political and financial groupings hasn't spoilt your enjoyment of this thread.

The same goes for my blatant sarcasm.

[chiang mai]

Perhaps enough of the sidetracking and back onto the economies and currencies of the UK and Thailand?

I see from this mornings UK press that most local councils are preparing to increase Council Tax by around 5%, increases in the tax has mostly been surpressed for several years although that looks about to change. An increase in Council Tax plus significant increases in the cost of utilities, 10% in many cases, without any real increase in income, will put a huge strain on already stretched household budgets, ditto the likelihood that interest rates will rise sooner rather than later. All Sterling positive of course because money is being spent in the economy and GDP will rise. But from a social economic viewpoint it's mostly people negative hence I wonder if the population will actually allow the governement to continue with the current game plan, is there not a risk that recovery will lead to a change in governement, I think so.

[Naam]

£ only and no income on local currency is risky in my opinion for almost any level of asset planning.

if the income exceeds £ 250,000 p.a. after taxes i don't see too much risk for a British bachelor living a modest life style in Thailand

He should spread his income around a few different currencies in my opinion. 10-30 years who knows what could happen.

But yes; when I said almost any level I was thinking the smaller amounts rather than large. Smaller it goes the greater need for mitigating the risk really.

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Thaivisa history proves that the majority of Brits revere Sterling like a holy cow. for them diversifying into different currencies is unthinkable.

[i claudius]

As long as its not the Euro ,i embrace any currency ,

[phutoie2]

Or country

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[mccw]

"Earned" the 10grand he thinks as well.

Sickening

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I must have missed the part where the case was explained in enough detail to enable you to question the merit of it. My reaction is that if 120k was spent investigating and then a decision to issue a settlement and warnings to the officials involved was made, it's likely that the claims warranted a settlement.

My reaction from personal experience of the idiocies of the uk system is that any idiot who makes enough of a fuss and cock n bull story can cause huge financial damage to the state and the decent tax paying citizens.

Prime examples are legal aid for benefits scrounges who dishonestly pocket the housing benefit rather than pay thier land lord, compensation culture at every turn, waaa boo hoo there was a little bit of some kid juice on the floor and I slipped over and bumped my boo boo because it was some one else's responsibility to clear it up rather than mine to look where I am walking, etc etc etc etc etc etc

[rwdrwdrwd]

... compensation culture at every turn, waaa boo hoo there was a little bit of some kid juice on the floor and I slipped over and bumped my boo boo because it was some one else's responsibility to clear it up rather than mine to look where I am walking, etc etc etc etc etc etc

You're right, this does happen, whole firms practice as ambulance chasers (I'm also a Brit) and I too find this distasteful however in this instance 8 coppers got permanent marks on their records - it does not sound like a case of a claim against Tesco for slipping on a dropped pint of milk.

chiangmai is right though - this is definitely sidetracking.

I'm interested in this discussion around spreading money across multiple currencies, what is the benefit? Is it more of a risk management strategy then anything else? In my layman understanding this would minimise losses (as a default Sterling holder) in the event Sterling fell against other currencies, but on the other hand it would minimise gains in the event Sterling got stronger. It seems to average out the cross currency value preventing dramatic movements - is this the thinking behind the strategy?

[chiang mai]

There's lots of variables, depends where you live and which currency you spend in order to live, another part is which currency do you earn in, often it's not the same one. Another dimension of course is how much faith do you have in a particular currency, if you earn in THB, spend THB and you think it's got a solid future, the answer is an easy one. But if like many UK expats your assets are in GBP yet you live in Thailand and spend THB, your risk is that THB could become expensive to buy at some point in the future - that's what happened to a load of Brit pensioners after the devaluation in 2007, the Pound went from 75 to 45 and for people on fixed income, that's very dangerous.

So yes, it's about risk avoidance but for some it's about speculation and trying to make some money because you believe certain events will take place in the future, a risky game of course. For my part I'm split 50/50 between GBP and THB although I review that continually and frequently I rebalance to say 75/25 based on what I think is happening or is going to happen.

A final angle (from me) on this point and that is that for GBP asset holders who spend THB, it's worthwile hedging in SGD which spreads your risk even further but also allows for a slightly less risk shot at making a profit based on the movement of regional currencies and USD.

[kimamey]

£ only and no income on local currency is risky in my opinion for almost any level of asset planning.

if the income exceeds £ 250,000 p.a. after taxes i don't see too much risk for a British bachelor living a modest life style in Thailand

He should spread his income around a few different currencies in my opinion. 10-30 years who knows what could happen.

But yes; when I said almost any level I was thinking the smaller amounts rather than large. Smaller it goes the greater need for mitigating the risk really.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Thaivisa history proves that the majority of Brits revere Sterling like a holy cow. for them diversifying into different currencies is unthinkable.

Rubbish it's far more important than a holy cow.

[FiftyTwo]

Perhaps enough of the sidetracking and back onto the economies and currencies of the UK and Thailand?

I see from this mornings UK press that most local councils are preparing to increase Council Tax by around 5%, increases in the tax has mostly been surpressed for several years although that looks about to change. An increase in Council Tax plus significant increases in the cost of utilities, 10% in many cases, without any real increase in income, will put a huge strain on already stretched household budgets, ditto the likelihood that interest rates will rise sooner rather than later. All Sterling positive of course because money is being spent in the economy and GDP will rise. But from a social economic viewpoint it's mostly people negative hence I wonder if the population will actually allow the governement to continue with the current game plan, is there not a risk that recovery will lead to a change in governement, I think so.

County council, District council or Parish council?

The three levels of council all spend different amounts of the council tax.

The Parish council being smallest and setting precept in the order of 2% of total council tax.

[FiftyTwo]

£ only and no income on local currency is risky in my opinion for almost any level of asset planning.

if the income exceeds £ 250,000 p.a. after taxes i don't see too much risk for a British bachelor living a modest life style in Thailand

He should spread his income around a few different currencies in my opinion. 10-30 years who knows what could happen.

But yes; when I said almost any level I was thinking the smaller amounts rather than large. Smaller it goes the greater need for mitigating the risk really.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Thaivisa history proves that the majority of Brits revere Sterling like a holy cow. for them diversifying into different currencies is unthinkable.

Most of us Brits hate sterling with a vengeance.

If there were a viable alternative currency (like the Deutsch-mark, forgetting those two small blips in the past century) I would have a go.

But unfortunately, like many of us, my company pension wouldn't let me diversify.

Edited November 8, 2013 by FiftyTwo

[kimamey]

Perhaps enough of the sidetracking and back onto the economies and currencies of the UK and Thailand?

I see from this mornings UK press that most local councils are preparing to increase Council Tax by around 5%, increases in the tax has mostly been surpressed for several years although that looks about to change. An increase in Council Tax plus significant increases in the cost of utilities, 10% in many cases, without any real increase in income, will put a huge strain on already stretched household budgets, ditto the likelihood that interest rates will rise sooner rather than later. All Sterling positive of course because money is being spent in the economy and GDP will rise. But from a social economic viewpoint it's mostly people negative hence I wonder if the population will actually allow the governement to continue with the current game plan, is there not a risk that recovery will lead to a change in governement, I think so.

I assume my explanation regarding the UK and the Eurozone made things clear.

I haven't seen anything about council tax rises but if it's correct then you're right it could make a lot of difference to spending power when combined with other increases. I would assume it would increase the amount of council tax benefit paid as well although whether this would be significant I don't know.

I thought I saw something about the ECB dropping it's interest rates which seems to go against the likelihood of rates in the UK going down although they are separate. Maybe the UK rates won't go up for the same reason to keep the growth going.

[chiang mai]

Perhaps enough of the sidetracking and back onto the economies and currencies of the UK and Thailand?

I see from this mornings UK press that most local councils are preparing to increase Council Tax by around 5%, increases in the tax has mostly been surpressed for several years although that looks about to change. An increase in Council Tax plus significant increases in the cost of utilities, 10% in many cases, without any real increase in income, will put a huge strain on already stretched household budgets, ditto the likelihood that interest rates will rise sooner rather than later. All Sterling positive of course because money is being spent in the economy and GDP will rise. But from a social economic viewpoint it's mostly people negative hence I wonder if the population will actually allow the governement to continue with the current game plan, is there not a risk that recovery will lead to a change in governement, I think so.

I assume my explanation regarding the UK and the Eurozone made things clear.

I haven't seen anything about council tax rises but if it's correct then you're right it could make a lot of difference to spending power when combined with other increases. I would assume it would increase the amount of council tax benefit paid as well although whether this would be significant I don't know.

I thought I saw something about the ECB dropping it's interest rates which seems to go against the likelihood of rates in the UK going down although they are separate. Maybe the UK rates won't go up for the same reason to keep the growth going.

Funny, when I posted what I did about the Eurozone I was trying to be polite towards the poster who was clearly confused about the difference between the currency and zone, it was actually me who was being sarcastic in the first instance! But yes, hopefull everyone is all clear now.

Here's one of several links in the UK press today on the subject of council tax increases:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2489977/Council-tax-price-rise-planned-quarters-town-halls.html

The cut in rates in the Eurozone have caused GBP to increase in value, money being moved in order to take advantage of slightly higher rates plus the likelihood is that the UK will increase their interest rates before Europe. But Europe remains a vital trading partner so lowered rates in Europe means less confidence in the European economy and means the UK will suffer some reduction in exports to that zone.

[Naam]

Thaivisa history proves that the majority of Brits revere Sterling like a holy cow. for them diversifying into different currencies is unthinkable.

Rubbish it's far more important than a holy cow.

[Huayrat]

The GBP still going strong.. Council Tax haha.. Yet still no talk about Thailand and its problems and people taking to the streets yet he has 50/50 in Gbp andTHB but never posts anything negative about the THB lmao.. Ignore a certain poster as the pound will remain strong for along time.. Wise ppl on here can see that Thailand is about to get a bad place while the UK is getting much better.. Look at the pound now not at the graphs and reports that ppl keep publishing yet the pound never weakens.. Pure baloney..

[chiang mai]

Mmmm, up a whole 50 satang, on a transfer of £10,000 that would mean an extra 5000 baht!

Perhaps you can be pursuaded to post something of value to support your argument that the GBP is going to remain strong and for how long, something apart from a news flash from Fox News or your opinion, niether of which are really of any value.

EDIT: I'll post this here for the sake of convenience, even though it's not related to Hoirat's ramblings. It's an article that descibes the predicament that France is in currently , given that the UK and France are near neighbours and France is a dominant force in the EU, we ought perhaps to pay attention to what's happening there as a guide to the future, Herr Naam may diasgree, quite naturally.

But the IMF growth forecast at the end of the article is interesting, it shows the US growth rate forecast to be followed by the UK, if that's even close to being correct it implies stronger USD against GBP and we know what that means in GBP/THB terms, well, Hoirat doesn't but everyone else does.

Edited November 8, 2013 by chiang mai

[Naam]

i strongly disagree that France is a dominant force in the EU. France has the choice to dance to the music that is conducted and played in Berlin or stops dancing. as simple as that.

in my [not so] humble view the half-àssed "semi" EU-member United Kingdom is more dominant and has more influence than France.

[chiang mai]

What do you think Hoirat, do you agree? 52? If so why, if not why!

[FiftyTwo]

What do you think Hoirat, do you agree? 52? If so why, if not why!

Now when you claim your money is 5/50 Thai bhat/GPB, I'm assuming there isn't very much of that money.

I'm not talking about a normal UK blokes 20kgbp life savings, 10k here, 10k there, that's pocket money.

If you had a 1MGBP pension that could not be split, but invested in anything you like in either Thailand or the UK.

But never transferred out of the country again in your lifetime, where would you put it?

I would postulate that only a madman would put that money in Thailand.

I would also suggest that you CM, not being a madman, would put it in the UK like everyone else would do.

Thailand is an unstable banana republic, run by crooks, foreigners money isn't safe here.

We could all be booted out tomorrow and/or our Thai assets and bank accounts seized.

Edited November 8, 2013 by FiftyTwo

[chiang mai]

You were invited to answer the question posed in post 1678, you didn't or weren't able to do so.

I have zero interest in hearing anything from you beyond that, we have the, "measure of the man", from your previous posts.