i claudius Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 (edited) Thanks for that ,i like you think its in the lap of the Gods , and to guess what comes next takes not an expert ,but a soothsayer, and they can only be right 50% of the time at best Edited November 10, 2013 by i claudius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 The psychology of this thread is fascinating; first of all it must be said that anyone who comes here expecting to find out what the exchange rate is going to be is a mug and deserves everything they get – of course it can’t be done with any accuracy better than 50% of the time and if you ever thought differently, your education was seriously at fault. Yet people still come here to try and find answers, here’s some of the things that happen: Two or three people may be discussing the economy of say the UK, perhaps a specific event such as trade deficit or GDP growth and someone will make a statements like, “I think that looks Sterling positive” or similar and others may agree. Immediately, in the minds of some posters that is translated into, Sterling’s going to get stronger and because they need to transfer some funds for living expenses they bring the transfer forward. Two days later the exchange rate does the exact opposite of what they had expected and of course it’s the fault of the posters discussing the economic event earlier! The other thing that happens repeatedly is folk loose there time frame context. People may agree a direction or one person may feel strongly about an economic event and conclude X and he/she may well be right. But then a week later the composition of the picture has changed again yet readers still cling to the earlier conclusion which of course is no longer valid – we’ve seen evidence of this scenario where forecasts of currency direction made earlier were still held to be true years later! The final thing we see happen here is that many people can’t read and/or comprehend very well, a discussion about specific negative aspects of the UK economy does not mean those same people believe that the Thai economy is the exact opposite, that is not what was said or even implied. So what should a reasonable person expect from a thread such as this? I think that if enough people provide constructive input from reliable sources it’s possible for folks to draw conclusions about the likely direction of a country’s economy and to increase the odds in their favour from 50% to say 51% or 52%. That in turn may well lead folks to conclude that, on the basis of probability, based on what is known today, all things remaining equal, the future direction of currency X could be this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 i don't possess any wisdom as far as exchange rates are concerned and i mentioned many times that i don't dare making any forecast no matter what timespan it pertains to. Naam ,a question ,as you are the resident expert on money matters so all say ,i fortunatly made mine not having to know about exchange rates ,or any financials, as the thread is about thai baht to GPB ,do you in your wisdom think the pound will go down a bit ,up a bit ,or stay the same ? investing in more than two dozen different currencies over a period of 35 years have taught me many -sometimes very harsh - lessons that forecasts are most of the times futile attempts or at best lucky guesses when they turn out correct. having said so... i think the Pound is doing not badly vs. major as well as vs. minor currencies. i also think that outspoken pessimists like "mccw" and "chiang mai" use a selective approach to justify their negative thinking. I think you'd agree that everyone has varying capability limits in different fields, certainly those who have spent their entire adult life working on a subject would be expected to be more capable than others. But if that is true, where are the views of those people and why are they not putting forward corrective advice here and helping everyone else to understand by using their expertise to help steer the debate? There's a thousand or more critics of the content and style of this thread but there's only about three people who are actively trying to debate the various aspects by presenting data and drawing conclusions from it, everyone else seems to be sitting on the sidelines waiting to say, "you're wrong" but never explaining why! I for one would be most happy to sit back and learn quietly if a willing teacher and able leader were to take the lead here, it would after all allow me to reach my answers more quickly and accurately, but that hasn't happened and I wonder why that is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnnybgood Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The psychology of this thread is fascinating; first of all it must be said that anyone who comes here expecting to find out what the exchange rate is going to be is a mug and deserves everything they get – of course it can’t be done with any accuracy better than 50% of the time and if you ever thought differently, your education was seriously at fault. Yet people still come here to try and find answers, here’s some of the things that happen: Two or three people may be discussing the economy of say the UK, perhaps a specific event such as trade deficit or GDP growth and someone will make a statements like, “I think that looks Sterling positive” or similar and others may agree. Immediately, in the minds of some posters that is translated into, Sterling’s going to get stronger and because they need to transfer some funds for living expenses they bring the transfer forward. Two days later the exchange rate does the exact opposite of what they had expected and of course it’s the fault of the posters discussing the economic event earlier! The other thing that happens repeatedly is folk loose there time frame context. People may agree a direction or one person may feel strongly about an economic event and conclude X and he/she may well be right. But then a week later the composition of the picture has changed again yet readers still cling to the earlier conclusion which of course is no longer valid – we’ve seen evidence of this scenario where forecasts of currency direction made earlier were still held to be true years later! The final thing we see happen here is that many people can’t read and/or comprehend very well, a discussion about specific negative aspects of the UK economy does not mean those same people believe that the Thai economy is the exact opposite, that is not what was said or even implied. So what should a reasonable person expect from a thread such as this? I think that if enough people provide constructive input from reliable sources it’s possible for folks to draw conclusions about the likely direction of a country’s economy and to increase the odds in their favour from 50% to say 51% or 52%. That in turn may well lead folks to conclude that, on the basis of probability, based on what is known today, all things remaining equal, the future direction of currency X could be this. Thanks for that........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 So what should a reasonable person expect from a thread such as this? I think that if enough people provide constructive input from reliable sources it’s possible for folks to draw conclusions about the likely direction of a country’s economy and to increase the odds in their favour from 50% to say 51% or 52%. and with this 1 or 2% acquired additional knowledge it's a piece of cake to make the right decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 (edited) So what should a reasonable person expect from a thread such as this? I think that if enough people provide constructive input from reliable sources it’s possible for folks to draw conclusions about the likely direction of a country’s economy and to increase the odds in their favour from 50% to say 51% or 52%. and with this 1 or 2% acquired additional knowledge it's a piece of cake to make the right decisions. No of course not and you know that, the point is that all a person can hope to do is improve the odds marginally, it's all about managing your own expectations. EDIT: the other thing that happens from being involved and/or following a discussion such as this is that people begin to understand what factors are involved in currency movements and their appreciation and understanding of economics in general is hieghtened, any education along those lines, no matter how small, has got to be a postive thing. Edited November 11, 2013 by chiang mai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlieH Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 (edited) Assuming they can be bothered to follow and read all the jargon, links and lengthy posts and exhaustive chest pumpimg that appears to come from predominently 3 individuals who seem to have a problem keeping on track of gbp/thb and prefer to argue over who knows more and who got the biggest d**k! Give it a break guys ! Its becoming very tedious !........IMHO Edited November 11, 2013 by CharlieH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccw Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 There is an ignore button. Use it on the 3 and problem solved. Enjoy the remaining thread content of guesses with out analysis, zero links or wider learning. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 There is an ignore button. Use it on the 3 and problem solved. Enjoy the remaining thread content of guesses with out analysis, zero links or wider learning. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app no way i would want to miss any 'anal'-ysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The psychology of this thread is fascinating; first of all it must be said that anyone who comes here expecting to find out what the exchange rate is going to be is a mug and deserves everything they get – of course it can’t be done with any accuracy better than 50% of the time and if you ever thought differently, your education was seriously at fault. Yet people still come here to try and find answers, here’s some of the things that happen: Two or three people may be discussing the economy of say the UK, perhaps a specific event such as trade deficit or GDP growth and someone will make a statements like, “I think that looks Sterling positive” or similar and others may agree. Immediately, in the minds of some posters that is translated into, Sterling’s going to get stronger and because they need to transfer some funds for living expenses they bring the transfer forward. Two days later the exchange rate does the exact opposite of what they had expected and of course it’s the fault of the posters discussing the economic event earlier! The other thing that happens repeatedly is folk loose there time frame context. People may agree a direction or one person may feel strongly about an economic event and conclude X and he/she may well be right. But then a week later the composition of the picture has changed again yet readers still cling to the earlier conclusion which of course is no longer valid – we’ve seen evidence of this scenario where forecasts of currency direction made earlier were still held to be true years later! The final thing we see happen here is that many people can’t read and/or comprehend very well, a discussion about specific negative aspects of the UK economy does not mean those same people believe that the Thai economy is the exact opposite, that is not what was said or even implied. So what should a reasonable person expect from a thread such as this? I think that if enough people provide constructive input from reliable sources it’s possible for folks to draw conclusions about the likely direction of a country’s economy and to increase the odds in their favour from 50% to say 51% or 52%. That in turn may well lead folks to conclude that, on the basis of probability, based on what is known today, all things remaining equal, the future direction of currency X could be this. Thanks for that........... Tell me that you didn't just translate "many people" to mean you personally, if so thank you for proving my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Assuming they can be bothered to follow and read all the jargon, links and lengthy posts and exhaustive chest pumpimg that appears to come from predominently 3 individuals who seem to have a problem keeping on track of gbp/thb and prefer to argue over who knows more and who got the biggest d**k! Give it a break guys ! Its becoming very tedious !........IMHO If you are being forced to read this thread you must tell them no, you don't want to, it's your right not to do so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huayrat Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Oh look the pound is still strong.. Rule Britannia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccw Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Oh look the pound is still strong.. Rule Britannia 50 is strong? 25% under the rate pre QE/ bail outs. I'd say mediocre at best. 43 only a few months ago, a drop of 17% hanging there as a historic range/ possibility with out even any further QE needed to push it. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 There'll be a short intermission here whilst HR tries to google the definition of "mediocre", normal service will be resumed, er, um, shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlieH Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Assuming they can be bothered to follow and read all the jargon, links and lengthy posts and exhaustive chest pumpimg that appears to come from predominently 3 individuals who seem to have a problem keeping on track of gbp/thb and prefer to argue over who knows more and who got the biggest d**k! Give it a break guys ! Its becoming very tedious !........IMHO If you are being forced to read this thread you must tell them no, you don't want to, it's your right not to do so. The thread isnt the problem, your persistent verbal diarrhoea and relentless arguing IS ! Just remember that its better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haybilly Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 there... there... Gentlemen! let's agree that some of us disagree. but in a civilised manner suitable for Members of the British Empire and a lonely Hun Jerry. British Empire? I think you need to get out more. honi soit qui mal y pense! My Old School Motto--Goodness Gracious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The thread isnt the problem, your persistent verbal diarrhoea and relentless arguing IS ! Just remember that its better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. Logitech sells a mouse that is capable, which, after minimal instruction, is capable of avoiding these threads - PM me and I'll help you find a nearby stockist! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlieH Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The thread isnt the problem, your persistent verbal diarrhoea and relentless arguing IS ! Just remember that its better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. Logitech sells a mouse that is capable, which, after minimal instruction, is capable of avoiding these threads - PM me and I'll help you find a nearby stockist! Assumptions AGAIN! Who says I'm using a PC ? (or one that requires a mouse). You really do like humiliating yourself in public dont you, and just what has any of this got to do with the Gbp/thb rate? Once again you demonstrate the inability to focus and keep on track of the actual thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The thread isnt the problem, your persistent verbal diarrhoea and relentless arguing IS ! Just remember that its better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. Logitech sells a mouse that is capable, which, after minimal instruction, is capable of avoiding these threads - PM me and I'll help you find a nearby stockist! Assumptions AGAIN! Who says I'm using a PC ? (or one that requires a mouse). You really do like humiliating yourself in public dont you, and just what has any of this got to do with the Gbp/thb rate? Once again you demonstrate the inability to focus and keep on track of the actual thread. Moderator: the customer has a complaint and his "device" can't see the "report" button in his post, can you help him locate it? OP: Sorry for the above, you were saying something about assumption and humiliation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccw Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Assuming they can be bothered to follow and read all the jargon, links and lengthy posts and exhaustive chest pumpimg that appears to come from predominently 3 individuals who seem to have a problem keeping on track of gbp/thb and prefer to argue over who knows more and who got the biggest d**k! Give it a break guys ! Its becoming very tedious !........IMHO If you are being forced to read this thread you must tell them no, you don't want to, it's your right not to do so. Just remember that its better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. Please apply this wisdom to yourself and zip it. Total hypocrite! We are all just carrying on our normal chat around gbp THB, related strategy and economies, until you open your trap diverting the flow to boring personal attacks and generalised moaning. Try following your own prescription and stay on topic, comment or link to something economic related at least. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 i don't possess any wisdom as far as exchange rates are concerned and i mentioned many times that i don't dare making any forecast no matter what timespan it pertains to. Naam ,a question ,as you are the resident expert on money matters so all say ,i fortunatly made mine not having to know about exchange rates ,or any financials, as the thread is about thai baht to GPB ,do you in your wisdom think the pound will go down a bit ,up a bit ,or stay the same ? investing in more than two dozen different currencies over a period of 35 years have taught me many -sometimes very harsh - lessons that forecasts are most of the times futile attempts or at best lucky guesses when they turn out correct. having said so... i think the Pound is doing not badly vs. major as well as vs. minor currencies. i also think that outspoken pessimists like "mccw" and "chiang mai" use a selective approach to justify their negative thinking. I think you'd agree that everyone has varying capability limits in different fields, certainly those who have spent their entire adult life working on a subject would be expected to be more capable than others. But if that is true, where are the views of those people and why are they not putting forward corrective advice here and helping everyone else to understand by using their expertise to help steer the debate? There's a thousand or more critics of the content and style of this thread but there's only about three people who are actively trying to debate the various aspects by presenting data and drawing conclusions from it, everyone else seems to be sitting on the sidelines waiting to say, "you're wrong" but never explaining why! I for one would be most happy to sit back and learn quietly if a willing teacher and able leader were to take the lead here, it would after all allow me to reach my answers more quickly and accurately, but that hasn't happened and I wonder why that is! Bump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiftyTwo Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 just hit 50.7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 just hit 50.7 50.43 at SCB inbound currently but if you like 50.70, go for it. The key point in this learning process however is what will the rate be after 08:00 GMT and why, higher or lower? http://www.scb.co.th/scb_api/scbapi.jsp?key== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 So here we are, it's early evening in TH and GBP/THB is back pretty much where it started the day, HR and 52 are busy cleaning the stains from their garments following this mornings excitement yet much later, not much has changed, what more can be said. By way of thread entertainment for the evening I'm going to call my withdrawl from this thread, not because I now feel differently about the subject matter but because much of the "companionship" here has become, tiresome, troubling, I don't know, worrisome I suppose is the best way I can describe it. There seems to be precious little interest by members in exploring the subject matter seriously and the chaf from peanut gallery is way past boring - most disturbingly, more senior and knowledagable members have, in over seventy pages, refused to educate lead or steer. Never mind, off you go, I predict a brief slew of abusive uncomplementary posts followed by a flat line of silence , sad really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiftyTwo Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 555 flounce alert! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 555 flounce alert! flounce? A strip of decorative, usually gathered or pleated material attached by one edge, as on a garment or curtain. have mercy with us non-natives FiftyTwo! is Chiang Mai "pleated"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiftyTwo Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 (edited) 555 flounce alert! flounce? A strip of decorative, usually gathered or pleated material attached by one edge, as on a garment or curtain. have mercy with us non-natives FiftyTwo! is Chiang Mai "pleated"? flounce (third-person singular simple present flounces, present participle flouncing, simple past and past participle flounced) 1 To move in an exaggerated, bouncy manner. 2 (archaic) To flounder; to make spastic motions. [quotations ▼] 3 To decorate with a flounce. 4 To leave a group dramatically, in a way that draws attention to oneself. Number 4, not Number 3 that you suggested. Edited November 11, 2013 by FiftyTwo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huayrat Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 About time cya.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wooloomooloo Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Arrived in LOS last night and checked Bangkok Bank on internet this morning and hit 50.01. Went to the local branch where I also needed to enquire about my Bangkok Bank savings account, otherwise I would have gone to SCB and taken 51.0475. Quite happy with 50 mark though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huayrat Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 50.5 now.. The council Tax can't have gone up yet ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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