TBWG Posted February 24, 2006 Share Posted February 24, 2006 Hi Anyone have any views (stoopid question) on how Thaksin announcement might affect the Baht Rate? TBWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meerkat Posted February 25, 2006 Share Posted February 25, 2006 The markets initially seem to have welcomed the decision, with the SET closing above the important 740 support/resistance level. Assuming that Thaksin will be re-elected with a smaller but still large majority I can only think it will be good for Thailand and the THB. I don't think the opposition is seen internationally as credible, and so with the TRT back in for another term, expect more foreign buyers of Thai stocks pushing up both the SET and the THB rate. Bear in mind that the SET is still the cheapest Asian market on a P/E basis - even cheaper than the Philippines (which is a joke). Not aware if one can short the PI market, but if it's possible, that would seem to be the logical cross; long Thai, short PI. Having said that, I don't think we're talking about a huge jump - more a case of general buying on stability. I'll check how the Forward THB rates have changed when I'm back in the office on Monday. NB I'm long, and have been long, the SET for a couple of years, so feel free to accuse me of talking up my own book! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haha Posted February 25, 2006 Share Posted February 25, 2006 The markets initially seem to have welcomed the decision, with the SET closing above the important 740 support/resistance level.Assuming that Thaksin will be re-elected with a smaller but still large majority I can only think it will be good for Thailand and the THB. I don't think the opposition is seen internationally as credible, and so with the TRT back in for another term, expect more foreign buyers of Thai stocks pushing up both the SET and the THB rate. Bear in mind that the SET is still the cheapest Asian market on a P/E basis - even cheaper than the Philippines (which is a joke). Not aware if one can short the PI market, but if it's possible, that would seem to be the logical cross; long Thai, short PI. Having said that, I don't think we're talking about a huge jump - more a case of general buying on stability. I'll check how the Forward THB rates have changed when I'm back in the office on Monday. NB I'm long, and have been long, the SET for a couple of years, so feel free to accuse me of talking up my own book! my 2 cents... it is about 11:30am in the morning right now here in bangkok. as I write this posting, I am watching nation tv where several thai folks including the general are doing an interview with sondhi and gang. mind you, I don't know what they are talking about. but what I do see are some very serious faces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBWG Posted February 25, 2006 Author Share Posted February 25, 2006 The markets initially seem to have welcomed the decision, with the SET closing above the important 740 support/resistance level. Assuming that Thaksin will be re-elected with a smaller but still large majority I can only think it will be good for Thailand and the THB. I don't think the opposition is seen internationally as credible, and so with the TRT back in for another term, expect more foreign buyers of Thai stocks pushing up both the SET and the THB rate. Bear in mind that the SET is still the cheapest Asian market on a P/E basis - even cheaper than the Philippines (which is a joke). Not aware if one can short the PI market, but if it's possible, that would seem to be the logical cross; long Thai, short PI. Having said that, I don't think we're talking about a huge jump - more a case of general buying on stability. I'll check how the Forward THB rates have changed when I'm back in the office on Monday. NB I'm long, and have been long, the SET for a couple of years, so feel free to accuse me of talking up my own book! my 2 cents... it is about 11:30am in the morning right now here in bangkok. as I write this posting, I am watching nation tv where several thai folks including the general are doing an interview with sondhi and gang. mind you, I don't know what they are talking about. but what I do see are some very serious faces. Thanks for input Meercat & Haha, surprised not more messages after all TV posters are a pretty self opinionated lot and normally like to have their 2 satangs worth!! Whether or not they know what they are talking about!! TBWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rinrada Posted February 25, 2006 Share Posted February 25, 2006 From Oanda over the last few days.........£-Bt 02/19/2006 68.55680 02/20/2006 68.560 02/21/2006 68.62640 02/22/2006 68.76480 02/23/2006 68.90490 02/24/2006 68.93030 02/25/2006 68.94780 ...where next.........?? will it keep going up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penzman Posted February 25, 2006 Share Posted February 25, 2006 The markets initially seem to have welcomed the decision, with the SET closing above the important 740 support/resistance level. Assuming that Thaksin will be re-elected with a smaller but still large majority I can only think it will be good for Thailand and the THB. I don't think the opposition is seen internationally as credible, and so with the TRT back in for another term, expect more foreign buyers of Thai stocks pushing up both the SET and the THB rate. Bear in mind that the SET is still the cheapest Asian market on a P/E basis - even cheaper than the Philippines (which is a joke). Not aware if one can short the PI market, but if it's possible, that would seem to be the logical cross; long Thai, short PI. Having said that, I don't think we're talking about a huge jump - more a case of general buying on stability. I'll check how the Forward THB rates have changed when I'm back in the office on Monday. NB I'm long, and have been long, the SET for a couple of years, so feel free to accuse me of talking up my own book! my 2 cents... it is about 11:30am in the morning right now here in bangkok. as I write this posting, I am watching nation tv where several thai folks including the general are doing an interview with sondhi and gang. mind you, I don't know what they are talking about. but what I do see are some very serious faces. Thanks for input Meercat & Haha, surprised not more messages after all TV posters are a pretty self opinionated lot and normally like to have their 2 satangs worth!! Whether or not they know what they are talking about!! TBWG The lack of replies kind of proves you wrong , no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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