How Will Thaksin End His Post As Pm?

[davidm]

All things come to an end, and I think it's safe to include the Dear Leader's reign. How will it end, though? I've outlined a number of scenarios below, but I'm sure there are plenty I've overlooked:-

1. He retires along the lines of Lee Kwan Yew and Mahathir.

2. He resigns in the face of a scandal.

3. He dies on the job.

4. He loses a general election.

5. He is ousted by his own party.

6. A coup (hardly likely with his cousin in charge of the military and assorted cronies moving up the ranks).

7. Viva el presidente.

[cdnvic]

I think the first scenerio if you are talking about retiring with international respect, is out of the question unless he pulls off something spectacular. I could though see a time when all the (no pun intended) chickens are coming home to roost and he takes the opportunity to retire as a hero and let his successor take the fall for NPLs at village level (subject in todays Nation). A downturn in tourism, weather it be terror, epidemic, or just trends changing. He's made alot of big promises which may appear to work in the short term, allowing him a few years breathing space, but sooner or later the bills will be due and he's not stupid (arrogant yes), so I think he'll look for an honorable exit before then.

Election? I think until his policy boasts start to come undone alot of voters will continue to support hime, and he will cut and run before taking a loss.

Republic? Never under the current monarch... don't know enough about the successor to comment.

No coup, but an election result like the US had in 2000 would make me very nervous about the family connection with the army.

cv

[davidm]

For what it's worth, your post is very close to my own opinion. Have to tread very carefully with regards to #7 but I believe that his goal.

[Spellbound]

ASSONATED ( that's always an option )

He treads on many toes, and I just wonder how many of the Thai Mafia has thought about it.

[george]

Thais has short memory, so he will stay at least another four years.

[Spellbound]

Thai PM 'target' of plane fire

Someone had a pop at him in 2001, so maybe they are still wainting for another chance ? (HOPE NOT)

BBC NEWS HERE

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/1201250.stm

[dr_Pat_Pong]

As things continue to hot up for him, and he looks more and more like a bumbling mortal, I suspect he will opt for the private sector again, and retire from politics. He resigned the post of Deputy PM twice before when he tired of the job.

[Basher]

Come on guys,

His ego will not allow him to go till the bitter end, same as with Maggie Thatcher in the UK he will be taken down with an internal coup, and leave with an embarrasing exit.

Don't underestimate this guy, and don't underestimate his $$$$ power, he can and will do pretty much what he wants here, I think we will see him in for another 4 years or at least till he is forcibly removed. He has already secured the communications industry, what is next? a private army?

The way he has changed things within parliament he is in a serious of looking like a dictator anyway.

Basher