Thailand's Gdp To Surpass Britain's By 2050?

[StChris]

There's been a lot of talk recently of the rise of China, as it's economy (in GDP terms at least) has surpassed each country one by one, first the major European economies, then Japan, and now hot on the heels of the US (which it is due to overtake by 2018 according to this http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2010/12/save_date). Of course, the rise of China is part of a broader trend of developing countries finally catching up (and even surpasing) those in the West. All this got me thinking: when will Thailand's GDP overtake Britain's (and by extention, similarly sized European economies such as FRance, Italy, Germany etc)? I used Britain simply because the population figures are fairly similar, and because I'm British myself I suppose :-)

I admit that the date given in the attention grabbing topic header was calculated far too simply. I merely took the most recent GDP growth rate for Thailand (5.5%) and kept adding this to the current Thai GDP (USD345.649 billion) until it equalled the UK's current GDP ($2.480 trillion), therefore assuming zero growth for Britain's economy (Japan's economy has stagnated for the past 20 or so years, and the UK's is still below it's pre-2008 crashfigure, so this isn't as improbable as it might seem at first glance).

I realise how notoriously difficult making predictions are in economics, even among economists (how many of them predicted the crash in 2008 after all?), and don't intend the figure in the topic as an accurate prediction, more like a vague estimate to spark debate. You'll find various predictions on when China will overtake the US; not so much on Thailand and the UK (unsurpising given the relative unimportance of the latter when compared to the former).

So, when do you think Thailand will catch up to the West ecomically, and what will this mean for Westerners in Thailand?

[StChris]

Some more interesting info on the Thai economy (from this wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand):

- As of the third quarter of the year 2012 (Q3/ 2012), its unemployment rate is 0.58 percent (!!!) making Thailand the country of third lowest unemployment rate in the world – only after Monaco and Qatar.

- Thailand is the second largest economy in Southeast Asia, after Indonesia.

- However, its per capita GDP in 2011 remains very low at THB155,926 (USD5,394) – slightly lower than China's per capita GDP in 2011.

- As of 4 January 2013, Thailand holds USD180.9 billion reserve money and international reserves which ranks 2nd in Southeast Asia, after Singapore.

- With regard to the volume of the external trade, Thailand also ranks 2nd in Southeast Asia, after Singapore.

Seems pretty impressive! Most striking is the low unemployment rate. Any explanations? (maybe due to lack of a comprehensive welfare system?) I did a quick check on neighbouring countires and they seem to have a rate of around 3% - still low, but not as low as Thailand. Surely this must be exerting a massive upward pressure on wages. I'd like to hear from any business owners here on whether they have any difficulty reaining Thai staff.

[Orac]

A quick google found this based on a HSBC report of 2050 predictions last year:

Thai $856 billion - #23

UK $3.6 trillion - #6

http://www.businessinsider.com/these-economies-will-dominate-the-world-in-2050-2012-1?op=1

[theblether]

The fundamental flaws in these models is the assumption that the Western countries won't sharpen up their competitiveness to match the challenge, as well as misunderstanding that the richer societies become the less driven they become, so the ever expanding growth model always hits a bump.

A prime example is taking place right now at Chinese New Year..............the Factory Girls of China go home to see their families and many of them don't return to their jobs as they have saved enough to buy a bit of land and a little house, and that's all they want.

The Chinese factory owners detest CNY for that reason, there are already over 350,000 vacancies in the factories of Guangzhou, and CNY always creates a serious labour shortage in an already critical market.

The Factory Girls don't care though, relocating to Gaungzhou is a means to an end, and the end is to go back to their families with some capital and to start a family of their own.

This is where human nature trumps economic growth models however!!.....

To answer your fundamental question.........there are a fair few Westerners who think that they are Kings of the Hill who will find themselves as nonentities in Thailand in a few years time........and once the Chinese bachelors start pouring into the country looking for brides ( it's started already ) then the Westerners will have to seriously re-examine their place in the Thai pecking order.

[loong]

I think that the low unemployment rate is due to lack of data more than anything else.

As so many of the workforce do not pay tax or any other type of contributions to the government, it is impossible to know how many of these are currently employed or unemployed.

[theblether]

Some more interesting info on the Thai economy (from this wiki: http://en.wikipedia....omy_of_Thailand):

- As of the third quarter of the year 2012 (Q3/ 2012), its unemployment rate is 0.58 percent (!!!) making Thailand the country of third lowest unemployment rate in the world – only after Monaco and Qatar.

- Thailand is the second largest economy in Southeast Asia, after Indonesia.

- However, its per capita GDP in 2011 remains very low at THB155,926 (USD5,394) – slightly lower than China's per capita GDP in 2011.

- As of 4 January 2013, Thailand holds USD180.9 billion reserve money and international reserves which ranks 2nd in Southeast Asia, after Singapore.

- With regard to the volume of the external trade, Thailand also ranks 2nd in Southeast Asia, after Singapore.

Seems pretty impressive! Most striking is the low unemployment rate. Any explanations? (maybe due to lack of a comprehensive welfare system?) I did a quick check on neighbouring countires and they seem to have a rate of around 3% - still low, but not as low as Thailand. Surely this must be exerting a massive upward pressure on wages. I'd like to hear from any business owners here on whether they have any difficulty reaining Thai staff.

True unemployment is rising rapidly in Thailand.

When the ASEAN union comes into force in 2015 ( I believe ) it will be a major boon for the factory and business owners as they will get access to a vast army of transient labour from Burma and Cambodia ( for example ) and a calamity for the indigenous Thais who will find that there sanuk attitude will catch them out once and for all.

Any businessman operating in Thailand can tell you how difficult it is to hire motivated and committed Thai staff, in a market where there employment rights are heavily protected. Give it 3 years and the Thais will be clamouring for jobs when they realize that the Burmese have undone them.

[chiangmaikelly]

I think that the low unemployment rate is due to lack of data more than anything else.

As so many of the workforce do not pay tax or any other type of contributions to the government, it is impossible to know how many of these are currently employed or unemployed.

If people were working but not counted as working the unemployment rate would be high and not low????

[loong]

I think that the low unemployment rate is due to lack of data more than anything else.

As so many of the workforce do not pay tax or any other type of contributions to the government, it is impossible to know how many of these are currently employed or unemployed.

If people were working but not counted as working the unemployment rate would be high and not low????

No, that would make the employment rate seem low.

They can only count the unemployed that they are aware of. They have no idea whether Somchai out in the village is working or not, so he is not counted as unemployed.

[wamberal]

Sooner or later, Thailand will have to start investing a lot, particularly in infrastructure, and education, so that national incomes can continue to rise in real tersms.

All the forecasts are in US dollars: obviously a lot depends on where the various exchange rates go.

[chiangmaikelly]

I think that the low unemployment rate is due to lack of data more than anything else.

As so many of the workforce do not pay tax or any other type of contributions to the government, it is impossible to know how many of these are currently employed or unemployed.

If people were working but not counted as working the unemployment rate would be high and not low????

No, that would make the employment rate seem low.

They can only count the unemployed that they are aware of. They have no idea whether Somchai out in the village is working or not, so he is not counted as unemployed.

The results of Labor Force Survey of November in 2012, it was found that the population aged 15 years

and over was 54.70 million persons. Of that 54.70 million, 40.17 million were in the labor force or available for work. I thought everybody knew that.

When you do a survey or any kind of statistics the first thing you do is count the population size. That is statistics 101.

You might want to check out the Summary of the Labor Force Survey Thailand.

[theblether]

I think that the low unemployment rate is due to lack of data more than anything else.

As so many of the workforce do not pay tax or any other type of contributions to the government, it is impossible to know how many of these are currently employed or unemployed.

If people were working but not counted as working the unemployment rate would be high and not low????

No, that would make the employment rate seem low.

They can only count the unemployed that they are aware of. They have no idea whether Somchai out in the village is working or not, so he is not counted as unemployed.

The results of Labor Force Survey of November in 2012, it was found that the population aged 15 years

and over was 54.70 million persons. Of that 54.70 million, 40.17 million were in the labor force or available for work. I thought everybody knew that.

When you do a survey or any kind of statistics the first thing you do is count the population size. That is statistics 101.

You might want to check out the Summary of the Labor Force Survey Thailand.

Then disbelieve every single statistic contained within it.

Just sayin'

[loong]

I think that the low unemployment rate is due to lack of data more than anything else.

As so many of the workforce do not pay tax or any other type of contributions to the government, it is impossible to know how many of these are currently employed or unemployed.

If people were working but not counted as working the unemployment rate would be high and not low????

No, that would make the employment rate seem low.

They can only count the unemployed that they are aware of. They have no idea whether Somchai out in the village is working or not, so he is not counted as unemployed.

The results of Labor Force Survey of November in 2012, it was found that the population aged 15 years

and over was 54.70 million persons. Of that 54.70 million, 40.17 million were in the labor force or available for work. I thought everybody knew that.

When you do a survey or any kind of statistics the first thing you do is count the population size. That is statistics 101.

You might want to check out the Summary of the Labor Force Survey Thailand.

I guess that you are trying to make some sort of point here, but I have no idea what that point is.

[chiangmaikelly]

If people were working but not counted as working the unemployment rate would be high and not low????

No, that would make the employment rate seem low.

They can only count the unemployed that they are aware of. They have no idea whether Somchai out in the village is working or not, so he is not counted as unemployed.

The results of Labor Force Survey of November in 2012, it was found that the population aged 15 years

and over was 54.70 million persons. Of that 54.70 million, 40.17 million were in the labor force or available for work. I thought everybody knew that.

When you do a survey or any kind of statistics the first thing you do is count the population size. That is statistics 101.

You might want to check out the Summary of the Labor Force Survey Thailand.

I guess that you are trying to make some sort of point here, but I have no idea what that point is.

In any kind of statistical calculation the population is always counted first. But that is really a minor point as you will not believe any information published by a Thai person anyway. The Blether pointed out, "Then disbelieve every single statistic contained within it."

For any unemployment data you only have to google "Labor force survey Thailand." They know Somchai.

[loong]

I still have no idea what you are going on about Chiangmaikelly.

I said that the unemployment rate appears low because the government has no idea how many really are unemployed. Maybe they simply use the number of registered unemployed and use that as a % of the whole workforce. They have no clue whatsoever how many unregistered workers are unemployed at any one time.

[KhaoNiaw]

it will be a major boon for the factory and business owners as they will get access to a vast army of transient labour from Burma and Cambodia ( for example ) and a calamity for the indigenous Thais who will find that there sanuk attitude will catch them out once and for all.

They're not going to be introducing freedom of movement for all citizens. It only applies to a select group of occupations and not general labour.

[Briggsy]

Loong

The ignore button is your friend.

And you're quite right about the unreliability and/or paucity of data on unemployment in this country.

In fact comparing unemployment statistics, even if they were reliable, from developed states with welfare systems and developing states with limited social welfare and a huge black economy and casual labour market is rather pointless. It is comparing apples with oranges.

[chiangmaikelly]

I still have no idea what you are going on about Chiangmaikelly.

I said that the unemployment rate appears low because the government has no idea how many really are unemployed. Maybe they simply use the number of registered unemployed and use that as a % of the whole workforce. They have no clue whatsoever how many unregistered workers are unemployed at any one time.

As of November 2012 40.17 million in the Thai labor force. 39.97 million employed, 0.16 million were unemployed and 40 thousand were seasonally inactive labor force. 14.53 million were not in the labor force or not available for work such as housewives, students or seniors. Employed persons who don’t effectively work and are available for additional work, 0.31 million or about 0.8% of the total employed persons. Anything else don't hesitate to ask.

[chiangmaikelly]

Loong

The ignore button is your friend.

And you're quite right about the unreliability and/or paucity of data on unemployment in this country.

In fact comparing unemployment statistics, even if they were reliable, from developed states with welfare systems and developing states with limited social welfare and a huge black economy and casual labour market is rather pointless. It is comparing apples with oranges.

I would suggest reading "The Informal Employment Survey 2012 (Thailand). S2-046-F-55-00-000-000-B it costs $10."

Of course black or gray market employment would only make the unemployment numbers less.

The unemployment data from Thailand is believed by the international banking sector and the international credit reporting agencies such as Moodys, Standard and poors and Fitch who all rate Thailand stable. The international economists community have no trouble believing Thailand's employment statistics as shown in the bond ratings by the three agencies above.

[NeverSure]

62% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

[chiangmaikelly]

62% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

A nonsense fake quote with no basis in fact. You can do better. Don't quote Twain for gosh sakes either.

[thenervoussurgeon]

By 2050 i i for one wont give a shit,the same as most of you who are commenting now

[impulse]

The fundamental flaws in these models is the assumption that the Western countries won't sharpen up their competitiveness to match the challenge, as well as misunderstanding that the richer societies become the less driven they become, so the ever expanding growth model always hits a bump.

Agreed.

For a simple analogy, the first guy hacking his way through the jungle always takes longer. The next guy coming behind him goes a lot faster, may get close to catching up, but he can't possibly pass the lead guy unless he picks up a machete and actually does something besides stumbling along in the path that's already been cleared.

Developing nations today are piggybacking on technology and innovations of the developed world. Since they're so far behind, and the technology is so easy to emulate, they will develop a lot faster. But once they get close to catching up and have to differentiate themselves with their own creativity, the wheels will fall off.

Perfect example: the US put a man on the moon with slide rule technology in the '60's. They had to develop the materials and systems from scratch. Today, even with (virtually) supercomputers sitting on every desktop, and TEFLON, Tang and graphite already on the shelf, what other country has even come close?

Are they gaining? Sure. Will they ever catch up? Nope.

[David48]

62% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

A nonsense fake quote with no basis in fact. You can do better. Don't quote Twain for gosh sakes either.

Missed taking your 'fun' pills this morning ...

.

[David48]

By 2050 i i for one wont give a shit,the same as most of you who are commenting now

Statistically, I'm still in with a good chance ... ... just!

.

[chiangmaikelly]

62% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

A nonsense fake quote with no basis in fact. You can do better. Don't quote Twain for gosh sakes either.

Missed taking your 'fun' pills this morning ... .

Naw it's just it's the same old garbage. There is another thread running that says, "I don't trust doctors." And the Statistics are always lies group. And the, "anything that's Thai is terrible bunch." Come on guys. All doctors don't lie, statistics are only numbers they have no inherent honesty or dishonesty. Some government documents are false and some are not.

Open your eyes boys. Ugly women are working in Go go bars and hotel maids and lawn maintenance people are not speaking Thai. The economy is hot, hot hot.

[David48]

^^ Fair enough post (overpage) ... though given the demographics and current musical trends,

this (sadly) might be closer to the reality ...

[DP25]

I said that the unemployment rate appears low because the government has no idea how many really are unemployed. Maybe they simply use the number of registered unemployed and use that as a % of the whole workforce. They have no clue whatsoever how many unregistered workers are unemployed at any one time.

That is exactly what they do. Registered workers are around 10 million if I remember correctly, and if 160k of them are unemployed, it is a bit under 2%. There are another 30 million grey market workers out there that they have no idea about, but they are including them anyway when they divide.

This huge number of grey market workers and businesses is also why Thailand's GDP is much lower than it should be. Huge section of the economy is not being reported. Way more than in any similar sized country.