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Buying A House In 3 - 4 Years Time, Price Rise/ Decrease Etc


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Hi,

I plan on buying a house ( 2 or 3 bedrooms, not a townhouse ) somewhere in Chiang Mai area, preferably not too far away from the city, in about 3 - 4 years time . I plan on having a budget of about 1.5 miliion - 2 million. Just wondering what peoples ideas are on the price rise or decrease in the housing market in the next couple of years. Or would people think it better to buy land and build own house? And what would the cost difference be, a lot greater? All advice welcome.

Thanks in advance

p.s I know I myself can't own land or a house as a farang, it would be bought in a friends name.

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I have no idea whether property or land values will rise or fall; If your budget of THB1.5-2M is already saved, then you could save it in a bond with a Thai bank and certain see that money appreciate in 3-4 years - that's a certainty. However, if your money is outside Thailand, in another currency, then I think currency fluctuations will have a far greater impact on your decision. While I've no predictions about the strength of the Baht over four years I'd say that's a bigger factor to consider.

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I think with ASEAN and the high speed rail link coming that Chiang Mai prices are likely to rise. You can never be sure, but I would buy now if you're sure you want to buy. Why put it off 3-4 years. Thai economy is growing around 5% a year, so in 3-4 years it could be 20% further ahead. That is almost bound to have a positive effect on property prices. Chiang Mai prices at the moment seem pretty reasonable. In 10-20 years I think the doubters will look back and see they missed a huge opportunity. For those that have been in Chiang Mai a long time, how have property and land prices changed over the last 10, 20, 30 years?

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I think with ASEAN and the high speed rail link coming that Chiang Mai prices are likely to rise. You can never be sure, but I would buy now if you're sure you want to buy. Why put it off 3-4 years. Thai economy is growing around 5% a year, so in 3-4 years it could be 20% further ahead. That is almost bound to have a positive effect on property prices. Chiang Mai prices at the moment seem pretty reasonable. In 10-20 years I think the doubters will look back and see they missed a huge opportunity. For those that have been in Chiang Mai a long time, how have property and land prices changed over the last 10, 20, 30 years?

Not in a million years,the ASEAN thing will wither on the vine. The tie up of the proposed free trade area between the USA and Europe will be the flavour of the century. China ,Japan and all the ASEAN bag will have their noses pushed out of joint big time,they cannot and will not get a sniff in,fresh air will not keep them going
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I think with ASEAN and the high speed rail link coming that Chiang Mai prices are likely to rise. You can never be sure, but I would buy now if you're sure you want to buy. Why put it off 3-4 years. Thai economy is growing around 5% a year, so in 3-4 years it could be 20% further ahead. That is almost bound to have a positive effect on property prices. Chiang Mai prices at the moment seem pretty reasonable. In 10-20 years I think the doubters will look back and see they missed a huge opportunity. For those that have been in Chiang Mai a long time, how have property and land prices changed over the last 10, 20, 30 years?

Not in a million years,the ASEAN thing will wither on the vine. The tie up of the proposed free trade area between the USA and Europe will be the flavour of the century. China ,Japan and all the ASEAN bag will have their noses pushed out of joint big time,they cannot and will not get a sniff in,fresh air will not keep them going

It may wither on the vine, as you put it, but the OP is asking about 3-4 years time. ASEAN is happening in 2015, and even if it unravels later, it will probably help raise prices in the next few years

I doubt EU and USA will have a fully fledged trade agreement. Even in the EU "free trade" comes with numerous restrictions. I doubt there will be free movement of people between EU and USA. Without that, there can't be any real free trade. It's going to be some boring, watered down, agreement. Not free trade at all.

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I think with ASEAN and the high speed rail link coming that Chiang Mai prices are likely to rise. You can never be sure, but I would buy now if you're sure you want to buy. Why put it off 3-4 years. Thai economy is growing around 5% a year, so in 3-4 years it could be 20% further ahead. That is almost bound to have a positive effect on property prices. Chiang Mai prices at the moment seem pretty reasonable. In 10-20 years I think the doubters will look back and see they missed a huge opportunity. For those that have been in Chiang Mai a long time, how have property and land prices changed over the last 10, 20, 30 years?

Not in a million years,the ASEAN thing will wither on the vine. The tie up of the proposed free trade area between the USA and Europe will be the flavour of the century. China ,Japan and all the ASEAN bag will have their noses pushed out of joint big time,they cannot and will not get a sniff in,fresh air will not keep them going

It may wither on the vine, as you put it, but the OP is asking about 3-4 years time. ASEAN is happening in 2015, and even if it unravels later, it will probably help raise prices in the next few years

I doubt EU and USA will have a fully fledged trade agreement. Even in the EU "free trade" comes with numerous restrictions. I doubt there will be free movement of people between EU and USA. Without that, there can't be any real free trade. It's going to be some boring, watered down, agreement. Not free trade at all.

Thailand has never thought the ASEAN thing through,not going into details,but Thailand will never let it take hold.

Not just the US and Europe,Mexico and Canada are in it too,it will be a stunning enterprise,Asia will be reduced to a backwater

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Same thing was asked about Pattaya years ago, Example Uk bought condo at 2,2 Mil xe 72 sold 3 months ago at 6,3 and money back Uk Xe 48. Work out the profit. There is no crystal ball but Chiang Rai is a safer bet rhan many places

How long ago was it 72? you can waffle on here how much money can be made on house or condo sales here,but all I see are countless ones for sale,market flooded out by them,newspapers and magazines overflowing with the stuff. Now for a speculative profit I made 3 (probably 4) million baht in the last 12 months,and I only made it by not losing it on the property market here. Thanks ,but Ill give Chiang Rai a miss
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OP you really need to look very deeply into this before spending money or making plans.

First thing, you are going to give the money to a friend to buy the land, that is not legal to start. Next your friend will own the place out right, he/she can borrow money or sell the place at any time. When it comes to money and trust not a good partnership and what if your friend gets killed in a road accident, pretty common over here. The house and land get inherited by his next of kin.

As to price, up or down, it will be up unless the world implodes. When you start from a low base the only way is up. Jim

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Same thing was asked about Pattaya years ago, Example Uk bought condo at 2,2 Mil xe 72 sold 3 months ago at 6,3 and money back Uk Xe 48. Work out the profit. There is no crystal ball but Chiang Rai is a safer bet rhan many places

How long ago was it 72? you can waffle on here how much money can be made on house or condo sales here,but all I see are countless ones for sale,market flooded out by them,newspapers and magazines overflowing with the stuff. Now for a speculative profit I made 3 (probably 4) million baht in the last 12 months,and I only made it by not losing it on the property market here. Thanks ,but Ill give Chiang Rai a miss

Each to their own, maybe you can share your safe way of making 4 mil in a year with all of ussmile.png

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Same thing was asked about Pattaya years ago, Example Uk bought condo at 2,2 Mil xe 72 sold 3 months ago at 6,3 and money back Uk Xe 48. Work out the profit. There is no crystal ball but Chiang Rai is a safer bet rhan many places

How long ago was it 72? you can waffle on here how much money can be made on house or condo sales here,but all I see are countless ones for sale,market flooded out by them,newspapers and magazines overflowing with the stuff. Now for a speculative profit I made 3 (probably 4) million baht in the last 12 months,and I only made it by not losing it on the property market here. Thanks ,but Ill give Chiang Rai a miss

Each to their own, maybe you can share your safe way of making 4 mil in a year with all of ussmile.png

Seeing your a punter it goes like this dumbo...yes been here a fair few years, and yes got dragged around a few houses (been on the market for years,still there,always will be there) not selling,never will sell. Had loose change ,approx 3 million,did not want to lose it,but was going after something around 12 million a few years back,yes hand bitten off Im sure.

Now this market will always flounder,anyone thinking differently needs their head examined. Now had second and third thoughts about this sinking ship ,deciding this was a loser so looked at the UK stock market at that time,stuck the loose change on LloydsTSB at 26 pence,now approx 55 going on 56 ,but will climb to 60 or even 70 in a month or so I'm sure.

So off to Canary Islands with the 6 million ,plus another barrow load,now that's an up and coming place,compare it with Thailand LOL LOL

PS this was my second windfall by not getting embroiled here on the house thing ,got one and a half profit by investing elsewhere, would have lost the lot here buying a house ,cheers pps bought 30 thousand pounds worth of Premium bonds with that (not buying property in Thailand profit) Oh the thought of losing it all

Edited by pinfold
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Same thing was asked about Pattaya years ago, Example Uk bought condo at 2,2 Mil xe 72 sold 3 months ago at 6,3 and money back Uk Xe 48. Work out the profit. There is no crystal ball but Chiang Rai is a safer bet rhan many places

How long ago was it 72? you can waffle on here how much money can be made on house or condo sales here,but all I see are countless ones for sale,market flooded out by them,newspapers and magazines overflowing with the stuff. Now for a speculative profit I made 3 (probably 4) million baht in the last 12 months,and I only made it by not losing it on the property market here. Thanks ,but Ill give Chiang Rai a miss

Each to their own, maybe you can share your safe way of making 4 mil in a year with all of ussmile.png

C'mon say sumfing! just want this thread to vanish? so you can start another "Oh! the joys of buying a flunket here in Thailand?"
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So you are staying that instead of building a house you should stick all your money in a single stock and hope it doubles? Then move to the Canary Islands but continue posting in a Thailand forum?

You can be sure the house in Thailand would not double in price,more like halve in price for a sale . You want to see the appraisal (last June) regarding foreigners buying in Thailand(look through various threads here).

I'm only buying in the Canaries,suits me as to free medical in the future and a cheap base in Europe,continue to live best part of the year out here.

Its up to you about buying houses in Thailand that has been done to death,you can see the past recent trend over the last few years,you can see the vast amount of property for sale,you can probably adjudge the absolute lack of buyers,and to be advised about anything property wise by sharks is foolhardy to say the least.

You will lose,guaranteed

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So you are staying that instead of building a house you should stick all your money in a single stock and hope it doubles? Then move to the Canary Islands but continue posting in a Thailand forum?

You can be sure the house in Thailand would not double in price,more like halve in price for a sale . You want to see the appraisal (last June) regarding foreigners buying in Thailand(look through various threads here).

I'm only buying in the Canaries,suits me as to free medical in the future and a cheap base in Europe,continue to live best part of the year out here.

Its up to you about buying houses in Thailand that has been done to death,you can see the past recent trend over the last few years,you can see the vast amount of property for sale,you can probably adjudge the absolute lack of buyers,and to be advised about anything property wise by sharks is foolhardy to say the least.

You will lose,guaranteed

The properties that don't sell are mostly the new shiny condos that are overpriced to begin with. Buy the right property in the right area, and you can make money. I know many people that have made plenty of money here with buying and selling property. But you're not going to make money buying a new condo and then trying to flip it in a year or two. Apart from catastrophe, there is no way that prices will halve, as you suggest. If you think that, then it's proof that you don't understand the market here. I know someone that bought a house for 200K 6 months ago, and they just got offered 700K for it. They bought well because they know what 's going on. There are many people making this little deals. Also know plenty if have doubled and tripled their money over 10-15 years. You come across as a complete loser. I doubt you have any money at all. Why try to put down people who are actually making money with Thai property? Just because you can't doesn't mean that others can't.

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So you are staying that instead of building a house you should stick all your money in a single stock and hope it doubles? Then move to the Canary Islands but continue posting in a Thailand forum?

You can be sure the house in Thailand would not double in price,more like halve in price for a sale . You want to see the appraisal (last June) regarding foreigners buying in Thailand(look through various threads here).

I'm only buying in the Canaries,suits me as to free medical in the future and a cheap base in Europe,continue to live best part of the year out here.

Its up to you about buying houses in Thailand that has been done to death,you can see the past recent trend over the last few years,you can see the vast amount of property for sale,you can probably adjudge the absolute lack of buyers,and to be advised about anything property wise by sharks is foolhardy to say the least.

You will lose,guaranteed

The properties that don't sell are mostly the new shiny condos that are overpriced to begin with. Buy the right property in the right area, and you can make money. I know many people that have made plenty of money here with buying and selling property. But you're not going to make money buying a new condo and then trying to flip it in a year or two. Apart from catastrophe, there is no way that prices will halve, as you suggest. If you think that, then it's proof that you don't understand the market here. I know someone that bought a house for 200K 6 months ago, and they just got offered 700K for it. They bought well because they know what 's going on. There are many people making this little deals. Also know plenty if have doubled and tripled their money over 10-15 years. You come across as a complete loser. I doubt you have any money at all. Why try to put down people who are actually making money with Thai property? Just because you can't doesn't mean that others can't.

So your the guy that's cracked the market here? LOL You know plenty who have made money here?,I know plenty too,100 times over than you do ,never likely to see anything,they will never sell,take a whatever down the dark side of Pattaya,thousands unsold,never going to get sold ,Chiang Mai (Id have a squint into developments in Chiang Mai too)seems a lot there are losing the shirts off their backs. Now I quoted before the appraisal report from last June,keeping that in mind would anybody seriously consider buying anything in Thailand.

Knowing the market here in Thailand as you undoubtedly don't,Id keep a million miles from your advice ,loser I apologise The operative word ,as you stated was little deals,yes may go along with this....there's a cats rubbish bin I'm trying to get rid of,its yours

Edited by pinfold
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So you are staying that instead of building a house you should stick all your money in a single stock and hope it doubles? Then move to the Canary Islands but continue posting in a Thailand forum?

You can be sure the house in Thailand would not double in price,more like halve in price for a sale . You want to see the appraisal (last June) regarding foreigners buying in Thailand(look through various threads here).

I'm only buying in the Canaries,suits me as to free medical in the future and a cheap base in Europe,continue to live best part of the year out here.

Its up to you about buying houses in Thailand that has been done to death,you can see the past recent trend over the last few years,you can see the vast amount of property for sale,you can probably adjudge the absolute lack of buyers,and to be advised about anything property wise by sharks is foolhardy to say the least.

You will lose,guaranteed

The properties that don't sell are mostly the new shiny condos that are overpriced to begin with. Buy the right property in the right area, and you can make money. I know many people that have made plenty of money here with buying and selling property. But you're not going to make money buying a new condo and then trying to flip it in a year or two. Apart from catastrophe, there is no way that prices will halve, as you suggest. If you think that, then it's proof that you don't understand the market here. I know someone that bought a house for 200K 6 months ago, and they just got offered 700K for it. They bought well because they know what 's going on. There are many people making this little deals. Also know plenty if have doubled and tripled their money over 10-15 years. You come across as a complete loser. I doubt you have any money at all. Why try to put down people who are actually making money with Thai property? Just because you can't doesn't mean that others can't.

You can make a shit load of money here [ wife ] if you have cash and trust your wife. If I said what we paid for some land, got industrial planning permission, built a small factory, makes no money, but on paper value, posters would be saying B/S.

A lot of luck on our part, yes, but I had read and read on the subject. If you do your homework there are opportunities out there.

Of course if things went bad [ marriage ] I would be living in the YMCA on welfare. Jim

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So you are staying that instead of building a house you should stick all your money in a single stock and hope it doubles? Then move to the Canary Islands but continue posting in a Thailand forum?

You can be sure the house in Thailand would not double in price,more like halve in price for a sale . You want to see the appraisal (last June) regarding foreigners buying in Thailand(look through various threads here).

I'm only buying in the Canaries,suits me as to free medical in the future and a cheap base in Europe,continue to live best part of the year out here.

Its up to you about buying houses in Thailand that has been done to death,you can see the past recent trend over the last few years,you can see the vast amount of property for sale,you can probably adjudge the absolute lack of buyers,and to be advised about anything property wise by sharks is foolhardy to say the least.

You will lose,guaranteed

The properties that don't sell are mostly the new shiny condos that are overpriced to begin with. Buy the right property in the right area, and you can make money. I know many people that have made plenty of money here with buying and selling property. But you're not going to make money buying a new condo and then trying to flip it in a year or two. Apart from catastrophe, there is no way that prices will halve, as you suggest. If you think that, then it's proof that you don't understand the market here. I know someone that bought a house for 200K 6 months ago, and they just got offered 700K for it. They bought well because they know what 's going on. There are many people making this little deals. Also know plenty if have doubled and tripled their money over 10-15 years. You come across as a complete loser. I doubt you have any money at all. Why try to put down people who are actually making money with Thai property? Just because you can't doesn't mean that others can't.

You can make a shit load of money here [ wife ] if you have cash and trust your wife. If I said what we paid for some land, got industrial planning permission, built a small factory, makes no money, but on paper value, posters would be saying B/S.

A lot of luck on our part, yes, but I had read and read on the subject. If you do your homework there are opportunities out there.

Of course if things went bad [ marriage ] I would be living in the YMCA on welfare. Jim

I would not trust my own shadow out here

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]So your the guy that's cracked the market here? LOL You know plenty who have made money here?,I know plenty too,100 times over than you do ,never likely to see anything,they will never sell,take a whatever down the dark side of Pattaya,thousands unsold,never going to get sold ,Chiang Mai (Id have a squint into developments in Chiang Mai too)seems a lot there are losing the shirts off their backs. Now I quoted before the appraisal report from last June,keeping that in mind would anybody seriously consider buying anything in Thailand.

Knowing the market here in Thailand as you undoubtedly don't,Id keep a million miles from your advice ,loser I apologise The operative word ,as you stated was little deals,yes may go along with this....there's a cats rubbish bin I'm trying to get rid of,its yours

No, I haven't cracked the market; I just know plenty of people that have made very good money - mostly Thais by the way. I agree that there are plenty of unsold condos, but I already said that I think it's difficult to make money on them. The people I know that made money mostly bought houses. I do know one person that doubled their money in Pattaya over about 8 years though. I wouldn't buy there, but some areas do make money. Many people say you can' make money in the UK at the moment, because prices are down, but central London is up 30-50% in the last 5 years. Even in down markets, there are still places that make money. In down markets it's also easier to pick up bargains.

Not sure if you've misunderstood me or whether you are just being a troll, but you seem very one-dimensional. You have an odd attitude that either a whole market is good or bad. The reality is different.

It's obviously not for you, so stay out. Not for me at the moment either, but if/when a bargain shows up, I will buy.

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Probably good advise, but I have kids and would get SFA no matter if in Thailand, UK, OZ or the USA. That's life, would make no difference where we lived, I'D be screwed. Jim]

i'd take you in Jim,remember the Canary Island house maybe empty for a good deal of the year ,use that,but no rubber tree planting in the vicinity

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]So your the guy that's cracked the market here? LOL You know plenty who have made money here?,I know plenty too,100 times over than you do ,never likely to see anything,they will never sell,take a whatever down the dark side of Pattaya,thousands unsold,never going to get sold ,Chiang Mai (Id have a squint into developments in Chiang Mai too)seems a lot there are losing the shirts off their backs. Now I quoted before the appraisal report from last June,keeping that in mind would anybody seriously consider buying anything in Thailand.

Knowing the market here in Thailand as you undoubtedly don't,Id keep a million miles from your advice ,loser I apologise The operative word ,as you stated was little deals,yes may go along with this....there's a cats rubbish bin I'm trying to get rid of,its yours

No, I haven't cracked the market; I just know plenty of people that have made very good money - mostly Thais by the way. I agree that there are plenty of unsold condos, but I already said that I think it's difficult to make money on them. The people I know that made money mostly bought houses. I do know one person that doubled their money in Pattaya over about 8 years though. I wouldn't buy there, but some areas do make money. Many people say you can' make money in the UK at the moment, because prices are down, but central London is up 30-50% in the last 5 years. Even in down markets, there are still places that make money. In down markets it's also easier to pick up bargains.

Not sure if you've misunderstood me or whether you are just being a troll, but you seem very one-dimensional. You have an odd attitude that either a whole market is good or bad. The reality is different.

It's obviously not for you, so stay out. Not for me at the moment either, but if/when a bargain shows up, I will buy.

One dimensional? as you state,well in my book there is only one subject that is stated here FARANG think the OP is Farang?,not interested what Thais get up to,not interested in central London or anywhere else for that matter,Yes for farang is bad,for Thai ,not a clue and never likely to come within my domain
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Probably good advise, but I have kids and would get SFA no matter if in Thailand, UK, OZ or the USA. That's life, would make no difference where we lived, I'D be screwed. Jim]

i'd take you in Jim,remember the Canary Island house maybe empty for a good deal of the year ,use that,but no rubber tree planting in the vicinity

As A Brit passport holder and kids and have OZ passports can I sign on the old king coal. EU and all that. Maybe a nice holiday in the none rubber time. Spent a few very good holidays on Grand Canaria. Jim
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]So your the guy that's cracked the market here? LOL You know plenty who have made money here?,I know plenty too,100 times over than you do ,never likely to see anything,they will never sell,take a whatever down the dark side of Pattaya,thousands unsold,never going to get sold ,Chiang Mai (Id have a squint into developments in Chiang Mai too)seems a lot there are losing the shirts off their backs. Now I quoted before the appraisal report from last June,keeping that in mind would anybody seriously consider buying anything in Thailand.

Knowing the market here in Thailand as you undoubtedly don't,Id keep a million miles from your advice ,loser I apologise The operative word ,as you stated was little deals,yes may go along with this....there's a cats rubbish bin I'm trying to get rid of,its yours

No, I haven't cracked the market; I just know plenty of people that have made very good money - mostly Thais by the way. I agree that there are plenty of unsold condos, but I already said that I think it's difficult to make money on them. The people I know that made money mostly bought houses. I do know one person that doubled their money in Pattaya over about 8 years though. I wouldn't buy there, but some areas do make money. Many people say you can' make money in the UK at the moment, because prices are down, but central London is up 30-50% in the last 5 years. Even in down markets, there are still places that make money. In down markets it's also easier to pick up bargains.

Not sure if you've misunderstood me or whether you are just being a troll, but you seem very one-dimensional. You have an odd attitude that either a whole market is good or bad. The reality is different.

It's obviously not for you, so stay out. Not for me at the moment either, but if/when a bargain shows up, I will buy.

One dimensional? as you state,well in my book there is only one subject that is stated here FARANG think the OP is Farang?,not interested what Thais get up to,not interested in central London or anywhere else for that matter,Yes for farang is bad,for Thai ,not a clue and never likely to come within my domain

That explains why there are so many things that you don't understand. You're just not interesting in learning from others that have had success. You live in Thailand some of the time, but aren't interested in Thais. That seems slightly odd.

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]So your the guy that's cracked the market here? LOL You know plenty who have made money here?,I know plenty too,100 times over than you do ,never likely to see anything,they will never sell,take a whatever down the dark side of Pattaya,thousands unsold,never going to get sold ,Chiang Mai (Id have a squint into developments in Chiang Mai too)seems a lot there are losing the shirts off their backs. Now I quoted before the appraisal report from last June,keeping that in mind would anybody seriously consider buying anything in Thailand.

Knowing the market here in Thailand as you undoubtedly don't,Id keep a million miles from your advice ,loser I apologise The operative word ,as you stated was little deals,yes may go along with this....there's a cats rubbish bin I'm trying to get rid of,its yours

No, I haven't cracked the market; I just know plenty of people that have made very good money - mostly Thais by the way. I agree that there are plenty of unsold condos, but I already said that I think it's difficult to make money on them. The people I know that made money mostly bought houses. I do know one person that doubled their money in Pattaya over about 8 years though. I wouldn't buy there, but some areas do make money. Many people say you can' make money in the UK at the moment, because prices are down, but central London is up 30-50% in the last 5 years. Even in down markets, there are still places that make money. In down markets it's also easier to pick up bargains.

Not sure if you've misunderstood me or whether you are just being a troll, but you seem very one-dimensional. You have an odd attitude that either a whole market is good or bad. The reality is different.

It's obviously not for you, so stay out. Not for me at the moment either, but if/when a bargain shows up, I will buy.

One dimensional? as you state,well in my book there is only one subject that is stated here FARANG think the OP is Farang?,not interested what Thais get up to,not interested in central London or anywhere else for that matter,Yes for farang is bad,for Thai ,not a clue and never likely to come within my domain

That explains why there are so many things that you don't understand. You're just not interesting in learning from others that have had success. You live in Thailand some of the time, but aren't interested in Thais. That seems slightly odd.

Odd? (Last post,to you) Can speak Thai,got Thai wife,screw more than my fair share of Thais.

Look sunshine,I have had more success than you,and especially you , than that you could ever imagine,and not crappy little deals selling Thais, Thai houses I take my success from a major pools win in year 2000, retiring at 47 with gold plated index linked pension,buying and selling at three times the profit in another far eastern house venture,yes if its money it pours in(for me anyway). Not that interested in Thailand,but it suits at the moment,when it doesn't Ill give you a bell

You concentrate on what you think you do best ps you wont be doing that for long anyway

Edited by pinfold
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