Alert, Alert To All My Esarn Mates

[ShingDam]

Maybe, but it is true

[cathyy]

I'll vouch for the truth of the increase in the cost of building a house, too. I bought a 7 year old house for 1.77 million baht 2 years ago. A very slightly smaller house built 5 years later in the same development cost about 2 million baht new. 2 years ago the cost of the same size house was about 2.75 million baht new, and I was told the cost was escalating so rapidly that my old house could soon be sold for 3 million baht, should I desire. I don't desire, but I'm sure glad I bought when I did.

(Yes, I am making sloppy use of the word "bought" here)

[ShingDam]

Thank you Cathyy,

Land raises as well, bought 1 rai for 100.000 Baht 2 years ago - today its usual to get 200.000 and more. About the house i paid already 20% more than a friend who started to built his house 1 year before me.

I am sure this is different and depends on the area where you stay. In our area there are a new flush of farrangs and maybe thats why ?!?!

Although even the thai dont sell land and its hard to get a good one right now.

ShingDam (who's looking for land)

[ray23]

Thank you Cathyy,

Land raises as well, bought 1 rai for 100.000 Baht 2 years ago - today its usual to get 200.000 and more. About the house i paid already 20% more than a friend who started to built his house 1 year before me.

I am sure this is different and depends on the area where you stay. In our area there are a new flush of farrangs and maybe thats why ?!?!

Although even the thai dont sell land and its hard to get a good one right now.

ShingDam (who's looking for land)

Ok not being the sharpest guy in the world but it would seem to me that when transportation costs go up ( fuel), that all other costs will go up a well. Uncle Taks manuveres so far don't seem to be doing much. But the increasing interests rates do seem to be causing a bit of pressuere on the baht.

Housing here in Udon pretty much stayed the same until the influx of farrangs in the area. But what really seeemd to cause the building boom was low cost loans to geovernment employees, many were buying second homes as investments and many are struggling to make those payments now. They can not rent them out and cover the payments on the house to many places available for rent.

The house that I bought was at 1.4 less then a year ago, the same house on street way the new ones being built are going at 1.7 But since you cannot replace it for less is there really an incentive to sell unless of course you are leaving the area.

Is this what is referrred to a baloon economy? If so will it burst as in what was it 97?

The eonmy ha infact grown in the pat three years that I have been here, but was it built on a solid foundation. I can see everday huge building half finished all around Udon and abandoned during the

last crash. Why are they nor being finished? many could be converted to condos easily.

My guess and only a guess, the developers alreay have thie profits that came from bank loan overrated as to the property value. Money out no payment back, equals good profit.

But as I said I don't have the slightest idea if I'm right , just a very wild guess from a very uneducated person in this area.

I would think that if Uncle Taks pulls out it will have a very big effect on the economy here.

What I fear is we will see Thai's killing Thai's over this in large numbers very soon. If someone doesn't change direction soon. When the King says something here and people don't really listen you have a powder keg. Uncle Tak's is standing his ground and so are the domstrators not a time to visit Bangkok

TT these are very intersting times in Thailand.

[ShingDam]

Hello ray

I share the opinion of a "very uneducated person in this area" with a "slightest idea if I'm right".

For example, if you had taken a credit here about 1 Million baht and you had bought land (about 80 to 100 rai) 2 years ago with an interest rate about 5%, and planted cassava, you nearly would be the owner of the land right now. (By the earnings of the crops and the value of the land today).

This idea came to me (2 and a half year ago) when I thought the national interest rates are much more lower then the real inflation. Other indicators for that is the goldprice .

You know I dont accept the interest rates of the "fundamental datas" puplished officially.

With the credit it was a bit complex, they give you a credit if you built a house or buy a darn car, but not if you want to buy land. So much to the great support for farmers to keep up a bit. (Some bells are ringing ?)

And I wont DARE to take all economics datas like the datas of a western country !

Maybe I am wrong and will loose my face, .... so be it .

Its only my personal opinion and I count myself to the pessimist on the stockmarket - thats only to be fair.

To Mr. T...oxin i have no idea how a man could come back after his reputation is sooo damaged.

Shingdam

[boppia]

Shingdam, 80-100 rai for 1 million seems cheap even two years ago. What part of esarn is that?

[ray23]

Now youcan really call me confused. Yesterday and today it was all over the international news, about thailnads ploitical woes effecting the Thai economy. But today the dollar went down. Just don't get it

Did something happen in America to drive the dollar down?

Is there something going on in the Asian region that keeping currencies strong in the region?

What I see now is huge international investors stopping projects here, withdrawing, or simply not getting involved.

Yep color me confused

[ray23]

I pulled up a baht chart for the past year, the dollar is stronger but by satangs day for day one year ago. seem like business as usual. As this seems to be the pattern every since I started looking three years ago. If this is true then the dollar will rise again as it always does and drop again later.

But I'm the last guy who knows anything about finance.

Edited March 21, 2006 by ray23