Thailand Faces Battle To Win Over Rebels: Analysts

[webfact]

Thailand faces battle to win over rebels: analysts

by Aidan Jones

BANGKOK, March 1, 2013 (AFP) - Thailand may have secured talks aimed at ending nine years of conflict in its Muslim-majority south, but analysts say the real battle lies ahead -- overcoming mistrust and winning over young rebels.

The gruelling conflict has left the population of the kingdom's southernmost provinces wary of Thai authorities and hostile to security forces, who human rights groups hold responsible for a catalogue of abuses.

Thursday's deal between Thai officials and a representative of the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) rebel group to hold talks in Malaysia in a fortnight has raised tentative hopes of a political solution to the conflict.

But questions persist about the ability of older militants to curb the near-daily attacks, which have claimed more than 5,500 lives in Pattani, Narathiwat and Yala provinces.

There are concerns that a well organised and increasingly ruthless young generation of battle-hardened militants are slipping out of reach of their elders.

Near daily attacks -- including shootings, bombings and even beheadings -- have intensified over recent weeks and fears abound that the established rebel leaders, many of whom live overseas, are out of touch with the foot soldiers.

"I'm not sure this new generation can be controlled by the BRN leaders," said Angkhana Neelapaijit, of the Justice for Peace foundation, who has worked widely to expose human rights abuses in the region.

While the old generation "takes up seats at the negotiating table", Thailand has to ensure it does not forget the concerns of the younger rebels, she added.

Chief among them is accountability for abuses -- such as a scandal of fake bomb detectors that saw hundreds of people jailed with bogus evidence -- and the prospect of an amnesty for wanted militants.

A lattice of shadowy militant separatist groups are held responsible for the violence, however little is known about their precise identity and structure.

The largest and most active group is a faction of the secretive BRN, known as the BRN-C (Coordinate).

The older Patani United Liberation Organisation (PULO) also maintains some militant cells in the south, although its overseas-based leadership is less influential.

Speaking to AFP at his home in the south last year one older rebel reputed to have close links with the PULO leadership acknowledged the problem of persuading the new generation to set down their weapons.

"They will see through any attempt by the Thai state to avoid the wider issues like human rights abuses," he said, requesting anonymity.

"They have been chasing blood for a long time now."

Perhaps more worrying, analysts say, is that even if the fighting stops, authorities will have to build trust in a region that has resisted Bangkok's rule for over a century.

Decades of perceived discrimination -- such as the under-representation of the 80 percent Muslim population in the local civil service -- has embedded mistrust.

"The Thai government has a huge amount to do to shake-up the lack of trust," said Sunai Phasuk, of Human Rights Watch Asia.

"Otherwise we could end up with countless rounds of talks that fail to end the violence as they do not fundamentally win the confidence of Muslims," he said.

Justice will be central to appeasing the militants, says Anthony Davis a Thai-based security analyst at IHS-Jane's.

"Until the Thai state acknowledges military impunity is an issue... the insurgents will continue to recruit and perhaps expand their network," he said, citing the lingering fury over the deaths of 78 Muslims who suffocated in a police truck in 2004.

"In most countries that would have been met with a legal response but that hasn't happened here."

Paul Chambers of the Institute of Southeast Asian Affairs at Chiang Mai University said he not optimistic that the talks would result in a breakthrough.

"I am quite doubtful that this apparent breaking of the ice towards serious talks will bear actual fruit," he said.

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2013-03-01

[dcutman]

Thailand faces battle to win over rebels

"The Thai government has a huge amount to do to shake-up the lack of trust,

"They will see through any attempt by the Thai state to avoid the
wider issues like human rights abuses," he said, requesting anonymity.

"They have been chasing blood for a long time now."

I am sure having Taksin (not politically motivated) heading up the negotiations will help in this area.

[alstaxi]

The analysts seem to have a firm grasp of the extremely obvious, what could go wrong.

[bigbamboo]

I don't think memorandums of understanding feature much in the Koran.

[chainarong]

Nothing new in this , its pretty hard to remove entrenched views, especially religious ideology, unfortunately when all the boys leave Afghanistan, the same will result , it will go back into chaos, having spent trillions of dollars on doing the hard yards plus good will, the end result, on value for your money terms, will be zero, money which in hind sight could have been spent else where, the devil you do the devil you don't.

[Rancid]

Well we have the Separatists offerring the unmitigated joy of a Totalitarian Fascist Theocracy, but what do the Thais offer? Well let's see, a-go-go bars, corrupt police, corrupt politicians, corrupt bureaucrats, corrupt army, but a flourishing democracy run, as in most anywhere, by the rich and corrupt elite.

I don't know, do stonings, Sharia Law, repressing women and religious police enforcing their own interpretation of the Koran under the sadistic rule of some self appointed Sultan really sound that bad? Mind you Muslims seem to love the notion till they get it, then they emmigrate to the West and agitate for installment of the same system, hmmm.

[hawker9000]

I don't know, do stonings, Sharia Law, repressing women and religious police enforcing their own interpretation of the Koran under the sadistic rule of some self appointed Sultan really sound that bad?

Yes. Are you nuts?

[Pimay1]

I don't know, do stonings, Sharia Law, repressing women and religious police enforcing their own interpretation of the Koran under the sadistic rule of some self appointed Sultan really sound that bad?

Yes. Are you nuts?

Have a Leo my friend it was a tongue in cheek post.

[justathought]

How can a government deal with extremists? There is no way other then educate them. That does not always work. Signing a piece of paper that is 'we will stop fighting' only works with normal reasonable people. Can they all fit in Guantanamo bay?

[justathought]

I don't think memorandums of understanding feature much in the Koran.

does it feature in the bible?

[waza]

I don't think memorandums of understanding feature much in the Koran.

does it feature in the bible?

Yes but it was called the 10 commandments

Edited March 2, 2013 by waza

[hellodolly]

I don't know, do stonings, Sharia Law, repressing women and religious police enforcing their own interpretation of the Koran under the sadistic rule of some self appointed Sultan really sound that bad?

Yes. Are you nuts?

Not one of his better days.

[Thai at Heart]

How can a government deal with extremists? There is no way other then educate them. That does not always work. Signing a piece of paper that is 'we will stop fighting' only works with normal reasonable people. Can they all fit in Guantanamo bay?

First of all, you starve them of cash, then you starve them of protection. Signing this accord and involving Malaysia is a start

[justathought]

I don't think memorandums of understanding feature much in the Koran.

does it feature in the bible?

Yes but it was called the 10 commandments

I believe most religions have something like that. Do the muslims not believe in Jesus & Moses?

Does the bible have any sub-notes about 'collateral damage'

[Mosha]

I don't think memorandums of understanding feature much in the Koran.

does it feature in the bible?

Yes but it was called the 10 commandments

You do know there are about 3 versions, maybe more, of the 10 commandments. The Jewish, Catholic, and Protestant versions differ.

[Mosha]

Going back to the pre Thaksin era would be a start. There are muslims all over the south, but outside the deep south, they are Thai. The Rawi speaking muslims are not, and have no wish to be.

[waza]

I don't think memorandums of understanding feature much in the Koran.

does it feature in the bible?

Yes but it was called the 10 commandments

I believe most religions have something like that. Do the muslims not believe in Jesus & Moses?

Does the bible have any sub-notes about 'collateral damage'

Jews, Muslims and Christians all believe in the same bible, the old testament, the ten commandments and the old testament prophets like Moses. But Jew don't believe that Jesus was the messiah they are still waiting for him. Muslims believe Jesus was a prophet same as Mohamed and Mohamed testament, the Koran is their new testament. Christian believe that Jesus is the messiah and that the new testament overrides the old testament. But they all worship the same God.

Edited March 3, 2013 by waza

[OZEMADE]

A lot of the insurgents are young as stated, however they usually do take notice of the head or the elder of the organisation. So hopefully something will come out of the first signing of peace. As the elder who signed the peace treaty said, there are a lot of factions in the south, breakaway gangs and they will be hard to control.

[justathought]

How can a government deal with extremists? There is no way other then educate them. That does not always work. Signing a piece of paper that is 'we will stop fighting' only works with normal reasonable people. Can they all fit in Guantanamo bay?

First of all, you starve them of cash, then you starve them of protection. Signing this accord and involving Malaysia is a start

The extremism we see today has been promoted and fueled by the oil rich arab countries in particular saudia. Asians which practiced Islam have been fundamentalzed by their children who were sent to arab countries for schooling. These kids came back all puritanical with extreme views and quickly went to fundamentalize their communities. With their knowledge of arabic & Islam and tough mindedness, the old clergy could not fight back. Their success was made easy by the savage policies of some governments. Islam in Asia was never a threat but now it has become a threat to also the muslims. If you study these extremists you will see they have adopted many of the American strategies - dehumanize your enemy, kill to stop dissension and so on. You will see that the arab terrorists often portray westerners as satin (not human anymore). Their policy 'you die' that means I won the argument is straight from a western cowboy movie.

I see that the Thai government is now opening more Islamic schools to stop this external radicalization. They are a little late but they can win the battle if they make genuine efforts. Malaysia is well aware of this and stops their kids going to arab countries for studying Islam. That is why in Malaysia you see women wearing very colourful clothes. Where you have arab Islam taking control you will see the state failing. I do not think it is difficult to win this battle. We see a Pakistani girl who was shot defying the taliban terrorists and she is winning in strides. Islam in the arab version is indeed a threat to free thinking people. My recommendation is we all use less energy. This will be better for our planet and cut the finance to arabs so they cannot spread their intolerable jihad.

To the Thai government I would say talk candidly to the muslims in Thailand. The vast majority still wish to live as Asians in Thailand. Use muslims who understand the problems and wish to stop it. Win them over before the balance tips to the extremists camp, they still have a chance. Once they have become brain washed into accepting the desert arabs version of Islam, then it is too late.

[justathought]

Going back to the pre Thaksin era would be a start. There are muslims all over the south, but outside the deep south, they are Thai. The Rawi speaking muslims are not, and have no wish to be.

How do you suppose we do that when Thaksin is still very much in the driving seat?

Yes, there are many muslims, the UN estimates 11%, the Thai government says 4%.

It all starts with education. The Thai government needs to be flexible in its education policies. The reason why many muslims did not attend Thai schools was because they were forced to pass the Budhists exams which meant bowing and prostrating to a monk. Most of us westerners cannot do this act. For muslims I believe this is not permissible at all. Hence the muslims were marginilised and some went overseas and came back as extremists.

Muslims here need to be welcomed back into Thailand. But I think this will not happen with the Chinese elite that controls Thailand.

[rubl]

Thaksin in the driver's seat? What about our real PM Yingluck? What about Dept. PM Pol. Captain Chalerm who called in help of the Wadah group, those nice guys who got a wee bit discredited only when in TRT. Like Wan Muhammad Nor Matha.