Are You A Sexpat Or Do You Ride The Backwards Morality Train?

[CMTourist]

I don't get it. The OP thinks that because Thailand has succeeded in attracting lots of tourists and the hotel sector isn't overbuilt that's a bad thing and indicates an imminent crash in the economy?

[chiangmaikelly]

He sees

When hotel rooms are not available or too expensive, look for short-term rent condos. Always available in the View Talays and other places, larger than hotel rooms, with huge pools, and never more than 1,000 Baht per day.

Quite right. I know for a fact view talay 2 has loads of rooms for 800bt.

The OP also sees a crash coming, Thai prices are high and he can't find a hotel room in Jomtien. Not much accuracy in the OP. No one sees a crash coming; the Thai economy is fine according to all the credit rating agencies, prices are a bit up but the inflation rate is low on a world wide average and there are many rooms in Jomtien.

This post has to win an award. I will donate $US 50, just so he get one.

1. Yes I do see a crash coming.

2. Thai Prices are high and (my friend), couldnt find a decent hotel in Jomtien.

3. Not much accuracy in the OP, (I wont take that personally, as you dont know me).

4. No one sees a crash coming, (who told you that a bar girl off her head on Yabbaa)

5. The Thai economy is fine according to all the credit rating agencies. (These wouldnt be the same agencies that said credit default swaps were investment grade would they).

6. Prices are a bit up, but the inflation rate is average on a world wide average. (AWARD !!! AWARD !!!!)

7. I am sure there are lots of lovely rooms in Jomtien, just not ones my friend wanted to stay at last night.

I have tried not be inflamatory, but this post is classic.

Moody's Standard and Poor's and Fitch all think there is no crash coming in Thailand. They downgraded the UK's credit rating but not Thailand. Now, who are you? Do you have the economic credentials to take on the three main credit rating agencies?

Thailand's inflation rate is about 3% to 4%. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/inflation-cpi

A quick check of rooms in Jomtien confirms hundreds of rooms available.

If you want to flame it's OK with me but there is a difference between your opinion and fact.

Just for the record you wrote, Flame #1. "who told you that a bar girl off her head on Yabbaa." Flame #2. "(AWARD !!! AWARD !!!!)"

Edited March 3, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[Denizen]

Homeownership is on a one man campaign to talk down the Baht. Absolutely forlorn campaign.

[Tolley]

chiangmaikelly

Whilst I agree with the crux of your post I would be careful with using any of the ratings agencies like Moodys et al to boost my argument.

After all they failed to see the GFC coming and had A ratings on the junk bonds that precipitated the GFC. Thus they have real credibility issues.

[BlackPuddingBertha]

Moody's Standard and Poor's and Fitch all think there is no crash coming in Thailand.

Ah. And did they see the global financial meltdown coming? The #$%! they did.

[chiangmaikelly]

chiangmaikelly

Whilst I agree with the crux of your post I would be careful with using any of the ratings agencies like Moodys et al to boost my argument.

After all they failed to see the GFC coming and had A ratings on the junk bonds that precipitated the GFC. Thus they have real credibility issues.

Since all the countries in the world except North Korea and all the banks in the world and all the economic courses at all the universities in the world use the rating agencies what would you suggest as an alternative?

[chiangmaikelly]

Moody's Standard and Poor's and Fitch all think there is no crash coming in Thailand.

Ah. And did they see the global financial meltdown coming? The #$%! they did.

What global financial meltdown? I live in Thailand. Maybe a different globe.

Edited March 3, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[Tolley]

chiangmaikelly

Whilst I agree with the crux of your post I would be careful with using any of the ratings agencies like Moodys et al to boost my argument.

After all they failed to see the GFC coming and had A ratings on the junk bonds that precipitated the GFC. Thus they have real credibility issues.

Since all the countries in the world except North Korea and all the banks in the world and all the economic courses at all the universities in the world use the rating agencies what would you suggest as an alternative?

Well you should start doing a bit more research as there were a number of respected economic forecasters predicting the GFC.

e.g. Nouriel Roubini

The ratings agencies arent accountable to anyone so they can say what they like without fear of any repercussions.

And Thailand was affected by the GFC as its export markets were not demanding as much of its products as previously.

And for the record it is quite likely a GFC type 2 is not far around the corner as the printing of money and level of debt has not fallen but just gotten larger.

Time will tell I guess.

[chiangmaikelly]

chiangmaikelly

Whilst I agree with the crux of your post I would be careful with using any of the ratings agencies like Moodys et al to boost my argument.

After all they failed to see the GFC coming and had A ratings on the junk bonds that precipitated the GFC. Thus they have real credibility issues.

Since all the countries in the world except North Korea and all the banks in the world and all the economic courses at all the universities in the world use the rating agencies what would you suggest as an alternative?

Well you should start doing a bit more research as there were a number of respected economic forecasters predicting the GFC.

e.g. Nouriel Roubini

The ratings agencies arent accountable to anyone so they can say what they like without fear of any repercussions.

And Thailand was affected by the GFC as its export markets were not demanding as much of its products as previously.

And for the record it is quite likely a GFC type 2 is not far around the corner as the printing of money and level of debt has not fallen but just gotten larger.

Time will tell I guess.

1. When did Dr. Doom (Roubini) not predict doom?

2. The credit reporting agencies are responsible to all the banks and financial institutions in the world. If they are wrong they go out of business.

3. Time will tell you nothing if you don't know how to interpret what you are being told. How did you feel about the Thai Stock market last year? It went up 33%. It is going to go up 33% again this year.

[Tolley]

chiangmaikelly

Whilst I agree with the crux of your post I would be careful with using any of the ratings agencies like Moodys et al to boost my argument.

After all they failed to see the GFC coming and had A ratings on the junk bonds that precipitated the GFC. Thus they have real credibility issues.

Since all the countries in the world except North Korea and all the banks in the world and all the economic courses at all the universities in the world use the rating agencies what would you suggest as an alternative?

Well you should start doing a bit more research as there were a number of respected economic forecasters predicting the GFC.

e.g. Nouriel Roubini

The ratings agencies arent accountable to anyone so they can say what they like without fear of any repercussions.

And Thailand was affected by the GFC as its export markets were not demanding as much of its products as previously.

And for the record it is quite likely a GFC type 2 is not far around the corner as the printing of money and level of debt has not fallen but just gotten larger.

Time will tell I guess.

1. When did Dr. Doom (Roubini) not predict doom?

2. The credit reporting agencies are responsible to all the banks and financial institutions in the world. If they are wrong they go out of business.

3. Time will tell you nothing if you don't know how to interpret what you are being told. How did you feel about the Thai Stock market last year? It went up 33%. It is going to go up 33% again this year.

Well Roubini along with quite a few others was right before and he is probably going to be right again.

It aint rocket science. You just cant keep printing money and increasing debt ad infinitum. Japan, the USA and most of Europe have so much debt that it can never be repaid.

What do you reckon is going to happen when interest rates start rising a bit? BIg problems that is what. And if you think Thailand or any other of the boom SE asian economies are immune you are wrong because they are dependent on these economies for their export markets.

As for the rating agencies and the banks they are all in bed together so what does that tell you? It tells me that the ratings agencies are not really independent and are actually part of the problem.

And what has the Thailand stockmarket rising 33 percent got to do with the price of eggs in China?

[lemoncake]

I just managed to book a hotel on agoda for tonight and tomorrow and there were loads of places available.

Obviously if you're looking for a hotel right near Walking Street then the season is at it's peak.

I'm gonna be staying a little bit of a walk from that kind of area as Walking Street doesn't do it for me.

I am only half full, 4 hotels around me at about 1/4 full.

Sure the cheapest rooms are gone, but i still have 900 baht rooms and 1000 baht rooms

PS, I am 15 mins walk to Walking Street

[lemoncake]

OP with all due respect, but you first claimed that all the rooms in Jomtien were taken by the Russians, to a point that you friend was forced to stay in some crappy hotel paying 2600 baht per night.

You then change that while yes there were many rooms, but your friend did not like any of it and the one he liked was 2600 baht.

I still do not see how you arrive at conclusion that the crash is coming?!

Your friend liked rooms in hotel which charged 2600 baht, what is the problem with that?

It was small and crappy? but you already said your friend liked it, if he did not like it he could have stayed in other places.

I am sorry but your post sounds like a complete troll post or a poor attempt at trying to smear the hotel for whatever personal reasons you have

Edited March 3, 2013 by lemoncake

[chiangmaikelly]

Since all the countries in the world except North Korea and all the banks in the world and all the economic courses at all the universities in the world use the rating agencies what would you suggest as an alternative?

Well you should start doing a bit more research as there were a number of respected economic forecasters predicting the GFC.

e.g. Nouriel Roubini

The ratings agencies arent accountable to anyone so they can say what they like without fear of any repercussions.

And Thailand was affected by the GFC as its export markets were not demanding as much of its products as previously.

And for the record it is quite likely a GFC type 2 is not far around the corner as the printing of money and level of debt has not fallen but just gotten larger.

Time will tell I guess.

1. When did Dr. Doom (Roubini) not predict doom?

2. The credit reporting agencies are responsible to all the banks and financial institutions in the world. If they are wrong they go out of business.

3. Time will tell you nothing if you don't know how to interpret what you are being told. How did you feel about the Thai Stock market last year? It went up 33%. It is going to go up 33% again this year.

Well Roubini along with quite a few others was right before and he is probably going to be right again.

It aint rocket science. You just cant keep printing money and increasing debt ad infinitum. Japan, the USA and most of Europe have so much debt that it can never be repaid.

What do you reckon is going to happen when interest rates start rising a bit? BIg problems that is what. And if you think Thailand or any other of the boom SE asian economies are immune you are wrong because they are dependent on these economies for their export markets.

As for the rating agencies and the banks they are all in bed together so what does that tell you? It tells me that the ratings agencies are not really independent and are actually part of the problem.

And what has the Thailand stockmarket rising 33 percent got to do with the price of eggs in China?

The OP said a crash was coming in Thailand. This is a Thai forum and not a Chinese forum. So the Thai stock market is quite important to Thailand (at least I think the OP is talking about Thailand). No, the rating agencies and the banks are not in bed together. If they were perhaps you can explain the recent downgrade of the UK. Do you think the UK banks are happy about that?

Edited March 3, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[Tolley]

The stockmarket rising is not necessarily an indicator of economic health. The two are not necessarily related. Look at the US stockmarket that is at record levels and has risen signifcantly. Does this mean that the US economy is in a good state

[chiangmaikelly]

The stockmarket rising is not necessarily an indicator of economic health. The two are not necessarily related. Look at the US stockmarket that is at record levels and has risen signifcantly. Does this mean that the US economy is in a good state

I believe the last crash, as the OP was talking about, was akin to the Wall street crash of 1929 on Black Friday. If the economy is going to crash so is the stock market. And the stock market rise coupled with the lowest unemployment in the world, low inflation, and high investment means one would have to be a bit nutty to think a crash was coming.

Edited March 3, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[Potosi]

I just managed to book a hotel on agoda for tonight and tomorrow and there were loads of places available.

Obviously if you're looking for a hotel right near Walking Street then the season is at it's peak.

I'm gonna be staying a little bit of a walk from that kind of area as Walking Street doesn't do it for me.

I am only half full, 4 hotels around me at about 1/4 full.

Sure the cheapest rooms are gone, but i still have 900 baht rooms and 1000 baht rooms

PS, I am 15 mins walk to Walking Street

Certainly. The place that cares for animal charity. http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/621418-helping-soi-cats-dogs-glad-to-see-and-be-part-of-it/?hl=+charity

That's alledgedly about homeless cats and dogs, while people don't concern you at all. http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/620063-travel-company-scam-reported-by-american-couple-at-pattaya-police-station/?hl=+scam

[Tolley]

The stockmarket rising is not necessarily an indicator of economic health. The two are not necessarily related. Look at the US stockmarket that is at record levels and has risen signifcantly. Does this mean that the US economy is in a good state

I believe the last crash, as the OP was talking about, was akin to the Wall street crash of 1929 on Black Friday. If the economy is going to crash so is the stock market. And the stock market rise coupled with the lowest unemployment in the world, low inflation, and high investment means one would have to be a bit nutty to think a crash was coming.

Not really. While the fundamentals in thailand might be good now a crash aka GFC2 would have such a knock on effect in a globalised market that thailand would inevitably be adversely affected as all their exports markets would be hit for six. There would be nowhere to hide should this happen as a number of economists are predicting.

[chiangmaikelly]

The stockmarket rising is not necessarily an indicator of economic health. The two are not necessarily related. Look at the US stockmarket that is at record levels and has risen signifcantly. Does this mean that the US economy is in a good state

I believe the last crash, as the OP was talking about, was akin to the Wall street crash of 1929 on Black Friday. If the economy is going to crash so is the stock market. And the stock market rise coupled with the lowest unemployment in the world, low inflation, and high investment means one would have to be a bit nutty to think a crash was coming.

Not really. While the fundamentals in thailand might be good now a crash aka GFC2 would have such a knock on effect in a globalised market that thailand would inevitably be adversely affected as all their exports markets would be hit for six. There would be nowhere to hide should this happen as a number of economists are predicting.

Sure, but I think the OP means to deride Thailand exclusively and does not really have in mind a global crash. If GFC2 comes look to countries who have natural resources as a primary economic engine. No where to hide may be the case but then I hope you have a woman who can live on weeds and insects and where would you find one of those?

[lemoncake]

I just managed to book a hotel on agoda for tonight and tomorrow and there were loads of places available.

Obviously if you're looking for a hotel right near Walking Street then the season is at it's peak.

I'm gonna be staying a little bit of a walk from that kind of area as Walking Street doesn't do it for me.

I am only half full, 4 hotels around me at about 1/4 full.

Sure the cheapest rooms are gone, but i still have 900 baht rooms and 1000 baht rooms

PS, I am 15 mins walk to Walking Street

Certainly. The place that cares for animal charity. http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/621418-helping-soi-cats-dogs-glad-to-see-and-be-part-of-it/?hl=+charity

That's alledgedly about homeless cats and dogs, while people don't concern you at all. http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/620063-travel-company-scam-reported-by-american-couple-at-pattaya-police-station/?hl=+scam

What on earth are you talking about?

[pattayadingo]

I just managed to book a hotel on agoda for tonight and tomorrow and there were loads of places available.

Obviously if you're looking for a hotel right near Walking Street then the season is at it's peak.

I'm gonna be staying a little bit of a walk from that kind of area as Walking Street doesn't do it for me.

I am only half full, 4 hotels around me at about 1/4 full.

Sure the cheapest rooms are gone, but i still have 900 baht rooms and 1000 baht rooms

PS, I am 15 mins walk to Walking Street

Certainly. The place that cares for animal charity. http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/621418-helping-soi-cats-dogs-glad-to-see-and-be-part-of-it/?hl=+charity

That's alledgedly about homeless cats and dogs, while people don't concern you at all. http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/620063-travel-company-scam-reported-by-american-couple-at-pattaya-police-station/?hl=+scam

What on earth are you talking about?

Maybe he dropped an acid tab?