What Strategy Will Thaksin Shinawatra Employ Now?

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE
What strategy will Thaksin employ now?
Avudh Panananda
The Nation

The onus is on former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to chart the next move following Sunday's Bangkok gubernatorial vote.

BANGKOK: -- At issue is not the victory of Democrat MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra but the fact that he beat Pheu Thai's candidate Pongsapat Pongcharoen by almost 7 per cent.

In the 2011 general election, the Democrats mustered about 41 per cent of popular votes in Bangkok while the ruling party trailed behind at some 39 per cent.

Nationwide, Pheu Thai outpaced the main opposition party by 15 million to 11 million popular votes. But in the capital, the ruling party lost to the Democrats by about two basis points.

Under normal circumstances, it would be absurd to compare the local and national elections.

But because of political polarisation, the anti- and pro-Thaksin camps turned Sunday's vote into a contest of their respective strengths.

The outcome of the Pongsapat-Sukhumbhand race does not bode well for Thaksin and the government. It appears to have deepened the polarisation.

Even though the ruling party has been in power for almost two years, the Pheu Thai-Democrat popularity gap in the capital is widening from two to 14 per cent.

For the past two years, Thaksin has pinned his hope on swaying the sentiment in Bangkok to support his amnesty and reconciliation plans. His main strategy is to dangle the populist goodies in front of the urban voters.

Sunday's vote has proved, however, the futility of the carrot-dangling approach.

If Thaksin is to succeed in ending his exile, then he must rethink his strategies. He might choose one of three varying scenarios, or opt to implement a mix-and-match based on these scenarios.

First, the push for amnesty, reconciliation and charter rewrite will continue - but at a slow and cautious pace.

Without a clear backing from Bangkok residents, the government has to tread carefully in order to avoid triggering its own downfall.

Should Thaksin pick this scenario, his homecoming will unlikely happen within the remaining two years of the government's term.

He will have to bide his time until the next general election.

The polarisation will persist. And the government will need to focus on implementing the mega-projects instead of touching controversial issues like granting amnesty and overhauling the charter.

Second, Thaksin may turn to rally the red shirts as a catalyst for game change.

Presently, he has been downplaying the reds with the aim of boosting government stability and to appeasing his opponents.

Since the appeasement approach has not brought about reconciliation as had been expected, it is a strong possibility that Thaksin will use the red shirts to fight a proxy war with the opposition movement, spearheaded by the Democrats and the People's Alliance for Democracy.

In this scenario, political anxiety will soar once again although the situation would remain manageable if Thaksin could keep the red shirts on a tight leash.

The Pheu Thai Party would take a back seat, leaving the red shirts to become the driving force to fight off opposition attacks.

Third, there is a remote chance that Thaksin will swallow his pride and face his legal predicament head-on in order to swiftly end his exile and bring polarisation to a close.

In a nutshell, the rough patch in Thai politics is persisting because Thaksin wants the game to bend to him instead of playing the game like everyone else.


-- The Nation 2013-03-05

[OzMick]

Lie, cheat, steal. Same as usual.

[hellodolly]

"In a nutshell, the rough patch in Thai politics is persisting because
Thaksin wants the game to bend to him instead of playing the game like
everyone else."

Nothing else to say it is all there.

[otherstuff1957]

Well, Thaksin seems to be quite impatient, so #1 probably isn't going to happen, and though he's fairly adept at shedding crocodile tears his monumental ego will never let him admit that he did wrong. So it looks like #2 is the only one left!

I don't think we are going to see more Red Shirt actions though, it's more likely that he will be shaking Tharit's leash and more legal actions are in the pipeline... I wonder if any of the judges involved will have a fondness for pastry?

[ianf]

"In a nutshell, the rough patch in Thai politics is persisting because

Thaksin wants the game to bend to him instead of playing the game like

everyone else."

Nothing else to say it is all there.

There seems to be some similarity between Lance Armstrong and Thaksin in their lying and cheating ways. Is there a possibility that they are BOTH sociopaths?

[tominbkk]

I pity a man who can't just enjoy the massive money like he has made for the rest of his life. But he is a power hungry, sick person who won't be happy til he is sitting on a golden throne.

[virtualtraveller]

This article is full of fuzzy math. You're comparing figures of a national constituency vote with a governors vote. On straight numbers, you ought to be comparing the party list votes, which were only about 5% different I believe. Second, if you compare the two main candidates head on, removing the redundant votes of independents, Sukhumband gained 18% more, pretty much a landslide.

But anyway, the massive rural Thailand and the educated Urban are two very different animals. Thaksin's usual strategy of deception and populist promises is far less effective.

And if Thaksin decides to get the Reds to fight further battles for him, he's heading for a disaster, already he's having difficulty paying them back for Ratchaprasong, they're disenchanted, the populist policies are pushing his govt towards financial ruin, and it's only get increasingly pressured. It's a pity the two political parties can't just accept the fact that Thailand is now two countries and neither side is going to win over the other, so it's time to set aside certain selfish ambitions that are unattainable and start trying to work together.

[DLock]

"In a nutshell, the rough patch in Thai politics is persisting because

Thaksin wants the game to bend to him instead of playing the game like

everyone else."

Nothing else to say it is all there.

There seems to be some similarity between Lance Armstrong and Thaksin in their lying and cheating ways. Is there a possibility that they are BOTH sociopaths?

But clearly, only one of them is on performance enhancing drugs...

[Pimay1]

"In a nutshell, the rough patch in Thai politics is persisting because

Thaksin wants the game to bend to him instead of playing the game like

everyone else."

Nothing else to say it is all there.

There seems to be some similarity between Lance Armstrong and Thaksin in their lying and cheating ways. Is there a possibility that they are BOTH sociopaths?

But clearly, only one of them is on performance enhancing drugs...

And to the other one it is a natural phenomena.

[Nickymaster]

"In a nutshell, the rough patch in Thai politics is persisting because

Thaksin wants the game to bend to him instead of playing the game like

everyone else."

Nothing else to say it is all there.

There seems to be some similarity between Lance Armstrong and Thaksin in their lying and cheating ways. Is there a possibility that they are BOTH sociopaths?

or narcissists?

[Valentine]

"In a nutshell, the rough patch in Thai politics is persisting because

Thaksin wants the game to bend to him instead of playing the game like

everyone else."

Nothing else to say it is all there.

There seems to be some similarity between Lance Armstrong and Thaksin in their lying and cheating ways. Is there a possibility that they are BOTH sociopaths?

But clearly, only one of them is on performance enhancing drugs...

And to the other one it is a natural phenomena.

Does the term megalomania apply here?

[h90]

This article is full of fuzzy math. You're comparing figures of a national constituency vote with a governors vote. On straight numbers, you ought to be comparing the party list votes, which were only about 5% different I believe. Second, if you compare the two main candidates head on, removing the redundant votes of independents, Sukhumband gained 18% more, pretty much a landslide.

But anyway, the massive rural Thailand and the educated Urban are two very different animals. Thaksin's usual strategy of deception and populist promises is far less effective.

And if Thaksin decides to get the Reds to fight further battles for him, he's heading for a disaster, already he's having difficulty paying them back for Ratchaprasong, they're disenchanted, the populist policies are pushing his govt towards financial ruin, and it's only get increasingly pressured. It's a pity the two political parties can't just accept the fact that Thailand is now two countries and neither side is going to win over the other, so it's time to set aside certain selfish ambitions that are unattainable and start trying to work together.

I think no problems with the Reds....now he reduce the spending for them, but when he need them again he increase their salaries and they will do what he want.

[Pimay1]

Quotes again.

There seems to be some similarity between Lance Armstrong and Thaksin in their lying and cheating ways. Is there a possibility that they are BOTH sociopaths?

But clearly, only one of them is on performance enhancing drugs...

And to the other one it is a natural phenomena.

Does the term megalomania apply here?

Absolutely plus a number of others. Disrespectful to the mothers of Thailand comes to mind as in "tell them to screw their mothers".

[h90]

"In a nutshell, the rough patch in Thai politics is persisting because

Thaksin wants the game to bend to him instead of playing the game like

everyone else."

Nothing else to say it is all there.

There seems to be some similarity between Lance Armstrong and Thaksin in their lying and cheating ways. Is there a possibility that they are BOTH sociopaths?

well one took some medication to be be able to ride bicycle faster and than denied it.

The other want to be dictator and don't care about killing people.

I think you can't compare them at all.

[rubl]

Well, first step is saying not to be involved in (Thai) politics, following with a skype session with the executive committee in Pheu Thai HQ (aka closed cabinet session). Next young Oak will discover yet another assassination complot on his father and/or Democrat MP's trying to steal rice from government stock.

While this takes place a few more groups stuffed with learned members will provide various good reasons for an amnesty of political prisoners and other well meaning people, with UDD leaders vehement on including the sentence "except for Abhisit/Suthep of course". Furthermore there is a distinct possibility that coming Songkhran our most popular fugitive will be in Laos and Cambodia again to give all people the chance to adore him, with free transport arranged including free (rice) meals.

IMHO, of course

[h90]

Well, first step is saying not to be involved in (Thai) politics, following with a skype session with the executive committee in Pheu Thai HQ (aka closed cabinet session). Next young Oak will discover yet another assassination complot on his father and/or Democrat MP's trying to steal rice from government stock.

While this takes place a few more groups stuffed with learned members will provide various good reasons for an amnesty of political prisoners and other well meaning people, with UDD leaders vehement on including the sentence "except for Abhisit/Suthep of course". Furthermore there is a distinct possibility that coming Songkhran our most popular fugitive will be in Laos and Cambodia again to give all people the chance to adore him, with free transport arranged including free (rice) meals.

IMHO, of course

Or the government turns off the electric in Bangkok for a day to show Sukhumbands incompetence. And suggest that with a PTP governor that would never happen. While Tida tells that the armad (Elite) wants all the electric for them alone.

In the red villages they teach that the Democrats control the power plants and turned off electric to discredit Yingluck.

(basically the flood strategy).

[bhakta]

Thaksin is a convicted criminal. What more be said?

[yoshiwara]

One strategy Thaksin will have to think twice about now is the marching again of his troops to Bangkok. Unless he wants to make a declaration of all-out civil war. The election loss isn't just a setback for his return, it is a loss for the fabled story of army brutality against the 'peaceful' red demonstrators. The people of Bangkok have said 'we are not with you'. Now what are we left with? Red villages raging against Bangkok indifference? Burning down of regional town halls? Been there, done that.

[EyesWideOpen]

Thaksin, how about if you just go away, and stop trying to tear Thailand apart.

[h90]

One strategy Thaksin will have to think twice about now is the marching again of his troops to Bangkok. Unless he wants to make a declaration of all-out civil war. The election loss isn't just a setback for his return, it is a loss for the fabled story of army brutality against the 'peaceful' red demonstrators. The people of Bangkok have said 'we are not with you'. Now what are we left with? Red villages raging against Bangkok indifference? Burning down of regional town halls? Been there, done that.

And marching his troops is very expensive as well....

I think he'll just ignore that and cut the money for Bangkok.

[Nickymaster]

One strategy Thaksin will have to think twice about now is the marching again of his troops to Bangkok. Unless he wants to make a declaration of all-out civil war. The election loss isn't just a setback for his return, it is a loss for the fabled story of army brutality against the 'peaceful' red demonstrators. The people of Bangkok have said 'we are not with you'. Now what are we left with? Red villages raging against Bangkok indifference? Burning down of regional town halls? Been there, done that.

And marching his troops is very expensive as well....

I think he'll just ignore that and cut the money for Bangkok.

Don't underestimate the profitability of the rice scam. Money has never been an issue for him. It's all about what he wants to do.

[rubl]

What to do, what to do? I for one don't know, so I turned to my source of inspiration Robert A. Much to my surprise the newest item is from January 12th. Also the item seems somewhat anti-current-government, not sure I should quote from it, but

"Another inevitability for those seeking to settle political conflict is the release of such rank and file political prisoners. An amnesty granted to similar who are awaiting trial or who are on the run must also be established. Yet, at this stage in Thailands ongoing process of political settlement and stabilisation, the release of these prisoners hasnt taken on the significance it should. For anyone committed to a full restoration of ordinary Thais democratic rights this is simply unacceptable. It is my firm belief that the release of the rank and file Red Shirts and the lese majeste prisoners must be a priority for the government. To ignore this pressing issue will only alienate a key element of the Pheu Thai leaderships support."
http://robertamsterdam.com/thailand/2013/01/12/political-prisoners-and-thailands-deep-state/

May be put some more pressure on the ICC and really, really promise them they can investigate without restrictions all items under the terms we'll set?

[oldsailor35]

Anybody/anything has to be better than the thieving conniving Suthep having a say or any power at all.

[oldsailor35]

Thaksin, how about if you just go away, and stop trying to tear Thailand apart.

Says you flashing your Stars & Stripes, the biggest interferer in world affairs today!

[SOTIRIOS]

....isn't continuing to control the government with his sister as prime minister....and all the cronies they have placed in key positions...enough???

....many people would guess NOT...megalomaniacs will stop at nothing.....and never stop...

[jayboy]

One strategy Thaksin will have to think twice about now is the marching again of his troops to Bangkok. Unless he wants to make a declaration of all-out civil war. The election loss isn't just a setback for his return, it is a loss for the fabled story of army brutality against the 'peaceful' red demonstrators. The people of Bangkok have said 'we are not with you'. Now what are we left with? Red villages raging against Bangkok indifference? Burning down of regional town halls? Been there, done that.

If Pongsapat had won and Sukhumband had lost, somehow I doubt you would be making such extravagant claims for the winner.There were only 200,000 votes between them.Personally I doubt there is as much significance as many pundits believe.What do we know now that we didn't know before?

Having said that, some leading Democrats are scratching their heads as to why they didn't win with a larger margin.After if all the red devil propaganda line (which you have swallowed hook line and sinker) was believed there would be nobody voting for Pongsapat at all.As it was Sukhumband was given a run for his money.

[Jawnie]

I think Thaksin's next strategy should be to say, "Boo!". This would set all the yellow shirts and TVF Thaksin-haters into a frenzy for at least a year.....give him some time to relax.

[rubl]

Grapes are still sour I see. Well, as other posters mentioned (after the results were known) "it doesn't really matter", "politics as usual", and "Pheu Thai magnanimously conceeded defeat over this totally unimportant matter".

It's interesting to see that some think the new governor should have won more votes, but without giving any reasons as to why. Just like polls before seemed to give the Pol. General a growing lead of almost epic proportions in line with the frequency Amply Rich people joined his campaign and vouched the government would seamlessly co-operate when their candidate was elected. New I think is the suggestion that some had said "no one would vote for Pongsapat"

Anyway the totally unimportant and ineffective MR Sukhumbhant has won with a very slim margin of 16.54% over a candidate who seems to reconsider this adventure in politics and may want to go back to a safe spot, like in the RTP force. If only the poor chap would have won, we would have know how good or how bad he would be for Bangkok people. Pity really

[dundas]

A Thai friend in Thaksin heartland, Chiang Mai, someone who hasn't had all that much education but is pretty smart, has always been a fervent Thaksin/red shirts supporter. Recently, he told me he no longer supported Thaksin. "Why?" I asked.

Because he had been looking on the internet and he had read how "Thaksin has robbed the Thai people."

It makes me wonder how increasing ease of internet access for the average Thai citizen might make a difference to their political outlook, and not just in Bangkok.

[Pimay1]

One strategy Thaksin will have to think twice about now is the marching again of his troops to Bangkok. Unless he wants to make a declaration of all-out civil war. The election loss isn't just a setback for his return, it is a loss for the fabled story of army brutality against the 'peaceful' red demonstrators. The people of Bangkok have said 'we are not with you'. Now what are we left with? Red villages raging against Bangkok indifference? Burning down of regional town halls? Been there, done that.

If Pongsapat had won and Sukhumband had lost, somehow I doubt you would be making such extravagant claims for the winner.There were only 200,000 votes between them.Personally I doubt there is as much significance as many pundits believe.What do we know now that we didn't know before?

Having said that, some leading Democrats are scratching their heads as to why they didn't win with a larger margin.After if all the red devil propaganda line (which you have swallowed hook line and sinker) was believed there would be nobody voting for Pongsapat at all.As it was Sukhumband was given a run for his money.

Well it appears the Pitiful Thaksin Party should have run a telephone pole against Sukhumband in the election. After all the dear leader said it would win.

Edited March 5, 2013 by Pimay1