What Strategy Will Thaksin Shinawatra Employ Now?

[belg]

did he expect to win and get a hold on the whole country, specially the part where people pay taxes to pays for all those red promises, to come back as a winner and saviour of the country

2.3 trillion for socalled infrastructure , 320 billion for rice scam

one would think they are bankrupting the country with a purpose, so the saviour can return home and fix everything

[jayboy]

Grapes are still sour I see. Well, as other posters mentioned (after the results were known) "it doesn't really matter", "politics as usual", and "Pheu Thai magnanimously conceeded defeat over this totally unimportant matter".

It's interesting to see that some think the new governor should have won more votes, but without giving any reasons as to why. Just like polls before seemed to give the Pol. General a growing lead of almost epic proportions in line with the frequency Amply Rich people joined his campaign and vouched the government would seamlessly co-operate when their candidate was elected. New I think is the suggestion that some had said "no one would vote for Pongsapat"

Anyway the totally unimportant and ineffective MR Sukhumbhant has won with a very slim margin of 16.54% over a candidate who seems to reconsider this adventure in politics and may want to go back to a safe spot, like in the RTP force. If only the poor chap would have won, we would have know how good or how bad he would be for Bangkok people. Pity really

No sour grapes on my part.I was making the point about the relative insignificance of the election well before the poll.Actuallyi if eligible I would have voted for the incumbent - Didnt much like the cut of Pongsapat's jib.

Nobody would have voted for Pongsapat if the ludicrous scaremongering was taken seriously.It wasn't.

[Nickymaster]

What to do, what to do? I for one don't know, so I turned to my source of inspiration Robert A. Much to my surprise the newest item is from January 12th. Also the item seems somewhat anti-current-government, not sure I should quote from it, but

"Another inevitability for those seeking to settle political conflict is the release of such rank and file political prisoners. An amnesty granted to similar who are awaiting trial or who are on the run must also be established. Yet, at this stage in Thailands ongoing process of political settlement and stabilisation, the release of these prisoners hasnt taken on the significance it should. For anyone committed to a full restoration of ordinary Thais democratic rights this is simply unacceptable. It is my firm belief that the release of the rank and file Red Shirts and the lese majeste prisoners must be a priority for the government. To ignore this pressing issue will only alienate a key element of the Pheu Thai leaderships support."

http://robertamsterdam.com/thailand/2013/01/12/political-prisoners-and-thailands-deep-state/

May be put some more pressure on the ICC and really, really promise them they can investigate without restrictions all items under the terms we'll set?

You mean no ONE OFF investigation? Or in other words: "Investigate what I want you to investigate and then get lost"

Edited March 5, 2013 by Nickymaster

[Nickymaster]

did he expect to win and get a hold on the whole country, specially the part where people pay taxes to pays for all those red promises, to come back as a winner and saviour of the country

2.3 trillion for socalled infrastructure , 320 billion for rice scam

one would think they are bankrupting the country with a purpose, so the saviour can return home and fix everything

one would think they are bankrupting the country with a purpose, so the saviour can return home and fix everything whole clan can finally emigrate with even more stolen wealth.

[Nickymaster]

What to do, what to do? I for one don't know, so I turned to my source of inspiration Robert A. Much to my surprise the newest item is from January 12th. Also the item seems somewhat anti-current-government, not sure I should quote from it, but

"Another inevitability for those seeking to settle political conflict is the release of such rank and file political prisoners. An amnesty granted to similar who are awaiting trial or who are on the run must also be established. Yet, at this stage in Thailands ongoing process of political settlement and stabilisation, the release of these prisoners hasnt taken on the significance it should. For anyone committed to a full restoration of ordinary Thais democratic rights this is simply unacceptable. It is my firm belief that the release of the rank and file Red Shirts and the lese majeste prisoners must be a priority for the government. To ignore this pressing issue will only alienate a key element of the Pheu Thai leaderships support."

http://robertamsterdam.com/thailand/2013/01/12/political-prisoners-and-thailands-deep-state/

May be put some more pressure on the ICC and really, really promise them they can investigate without restrictions all items under the terms we'll set?

You mean no ONE OFF investigation. Or in other words: "Investigate what I want you to investigate and then get lost"

And at the end of the page on RA's website:

Comments are closed.

...all in line with Yingluck's democratic values: "Only one way communication. Don't ask me any questions and don't give me any comments. We won and that's it".

Edited March 5, 2013 by Nickymaster

[rubl]

It seems people have voted in line with the continuing polarization of politics. As I wrote in another topic, a two horse race with 23 obstacles. One candidate gets 46%, another 39%, most of the rest to two or three others. Now if we compare the latest election result with that of 2011, even with the recent one being for 'just local governor', the Democrats seem to have been stable, but the Pheu Thai lost a bit in the two horse race. Obviously that's because Bangkok people realize that the election of their governor is unimportant.

2011-07-03 General Elections Bangkok results
Democrats	1,356,672 Constit.	1,246,057 Party list
Pheu Thai	1,277,669 Constit.	1,209,508 Party list

2013-03-03 4,244,465 voters, 2,715,640 cast (63.98% of total voters)
1. MR Sukhumbhant	Dems	1,256,231	46.25%
2. Pongsapat P.		PT	1,077,899	39.62%
3. Seripisut T.		Indep.	166,582		6.13%
4. Suharit S.		Indep.	78,825		2.90%

[Publicus]

Thaksin, how about if you just go away, and stop trying to tear Thailand apart.

Says you flashing your Stars & Stripes, the biggest interferer in world affairs today!

The comment is inappropriate and off topic, IMHO.

[bigbamboo]

I think Thaksin's next strategy should be to say, "Boo!". This would set all the yellow shirts and TVF Thaksin-haters into a frenzy for at least a year.....give him some time to relax.

I think " Boo hoo! " is nearer the mark as he cries into his drink.

[ratcatcher]

Grapes are still sour I see. Well, as other posters mentioned (after the results were known) "it doesn't really matter", "politics as usual", and "Pheu Thai magnanimously conceeded defeat over this totally unimportant matter".

It's interesting to see that some think the new governor should have won more votes, but without giving any reasons as to why. Just like polls before seemed to give the Pol. General a growing lead of almost epic proportions in line with the frequency Amply Rich people joined his campaign and vouched the government would seamlessly co-operate when their candidate was elected. New I think is the suggestion that some had said "no one would vote for Pongsapat"

Anyway the totally unimportant and ineffective MR Sukhumbhant has won with a very slim margin of 16.54% over a candidate who seems to reconsider this adventure in politics and may want to go back to a safe spot, like in the RTP force. If only the poor chap would have won, we would have know how good or how bad he would be for Bangkok people. Pity really

No sour grapes on my part.I was making the point about the relative insignificance of the election well before the poll.Actuallyi if eligible I would have voted for the incumbent - Didnt much like the cut of Pongsapat's jib.

Nobody would have voted for Pongsapat if the ludicrous scaremongering was taken seriously.It wasn't.

"Didnt much like the cut of Pongsapat's jib"

But you must admit he has Bette Davis eyes?

[Ian Curtis]

"In a nutshell, the rough patch in Thai politics is persisting because

Thaksin wants the game to bend to him instead of playing the game like

everyone else."

Nothing else to say it is all there.

There seems to be some similarity between Lance Armstrong and Thaksin in their lying and cheating ways. Is there a possibility that they are BOTH sociopaths?

or narcissists?

I don't know enough about Armstrong but I would surmise that Thaksin is an avaricious fool.

[khunken]

Actually I think that if the Democrats had selected a light-pole to run against Pongsapat, the pole would have won.

It's pretty obvious that Sukhumbhand wasn't the greatest candidate & the vote was more 'not PTP thank you' than yes for MRSP. Bangkokians seem to remember 2010 & that's a problem for Thaksin & his mobs.

[jayboy]

Actually I think that if the Democrats had selected a light-pole to run against Pongsapat, the pole would have won.

It's pretty obvious that Sukhumbhand wasn't the greatest candidate & the vote was more 'not PTP thank you' than yes for MRSP. Bangkokians seem to remember 2010 & that's a problem for Thaksin & his mobs.

If you think that's the message conveyed by voters so be it.However you will also have to explain why over one million Bangkok voters paid it no heed.If you argued that the election margin though relatively small was obtained by persuading some wavering voters that PTP should be penalised for the riots in 2010, that would be an argument that could be developed.However it would require an element of sophistication in analysis which as yet you have been unable to deploy.

[khunken]

Actually I think that if the Democrats had selected a light-pole to run against Pongsapat, the pole would have won.

It's pretty obvious that Sukhumbhand wasn't the greatest candidate & the vote was more 'not PTP thank you' than yes for MRSP. Bangkokians seem to remember 2010 & that's a problem for Thaksin & his mobs.

If you think that's the message conveyed by voters so be it.However you will also have to explain why over one million Bangkok voters paid it no heed.If you argued that the election margin though relatively small was obtained by persuading some wavering voters that PTP should be penalised for the riots in 2010, that would be an argument that could be developed.However it would require an element of sophistication in analysis which as yet you have been unable to deploy.

At it again, I see.

I don't have to explain anything, especially to the blinkered. Once again the arrogance appears as you seem to have a problem with a contrary opinion to your own. I have seen a total lack of any logical argument - let alone 'sophistication' - from you.

I don't want to get into a slanging match on off-topic matters again as it will only result is deleted posts again (which you do have a habit of writing).

[Groongthep]

Obviously that's because Bangkok people realize that the election of their governor is unimportant.

Exactly. This election's only significance was bragging rights. The Governor has no real power in Bangkok. The police are their own entity and only follow those orders from above they feel are in their best interest to enforce. The Governor may appoint some city services directors but that's about it. The Governor also gets some press notoriety which may help with future political aspirations but really nothing more. Take the recent floods in Bangkok for example. In developed countries the respective mayors of the flooded cities would be taking a lot of the heat for the lack of flood control. Here it was all directed at the PM because everyone knows the Governor doesn't do anything.

Edited March 5, 2013 by Groongthep

[Bagwan]

Thaksin, how about if you just go away, and stop trying to tear Thailand apart.

And taking his clique of political whores with him.

[jayboy]

Actually I think that if the Democrats had selected a light-pole to run against Pongsapat, the pole would have won.

It's pretty obvious that Sukhumbhand wasn't the greatest candidate & the vote was more 'not PTP thank you' than yes for MRSP. Bangkokians seem to remember 2010 & that's a problem for Thaksin & his mobs.

If you think that's the message conveyed by voters so be it.However you will also have to explain why over one million Bangkok voters paid it no heed.If you argued that the election margin though relatively small was obtained by persuading some wavering voters that PTP should be penalised for the riots in 2010, that would be an argument that could be developed.However it would require an element of sophistication in analysis which as yet you have been unable to deploy.

At it again, I see.

I don't have to explain anything, especially to the blinkered. Once again the arrogance appears as you seem to have a problem with a contrary opinion to your own. I have seen a total lack of any logical argument - let alone 'sophistication' - from you.

I don't want to get into a slanging match on off-topic matters again as it will only result is deleted posts again (which you do have a habit of writing).

It's not a question of not tolerating contrary opinions.In fact I welcome reasoned discussions.You however made a fatuous statement about Bangkokians making a decision based on the events of 2010, completely ignoring that over a million didn't as well as the hundreds of thousands of Democrats who weren't motivated by that episode (ie who would have voted Democrat anyway).

[ableguy]

Suicide would be a start

[ableguy]

Well, Thaksin seems to be quite impatient, so #1 probably isn't going to happen, and though he's fairly adept at shedding crocodile tears his monumental ego will never let him admit that he did wrong. So it looks like #2 is the only one left!

I don't think we are going to see more Red Shirt actions though, it's more likely that he will be shaking Tharit's leash and more legal actions are in the pipeline... I wonder if any of the judges involved will have a fondness for pastry?

donuts yes please

[ableguy]

I pity a man who can't just enjoy the massive money like he has made for the rest of his life. But he is a power hungry, sick person who won't be happy til he is sitting on a golden throne.

he wants his 47 bullion back/

[ianf]

"In a nutshell, the rough patch in Thai politics is persisting because

Thaksin wants the game to bend to him instead of playing the game like

everyone else."

Nothing else to say it is all there.

There seems to be some similarity between Lance Armstrong and Thaksin in their lying and cheating ways. Is there a possibility that they are BOTH sociopaths?

But clearly, only one of them is on performance enhancing drugs...

Which one?

[bigbamboo]

Grapes are still sour I see. Well, as other posters mentioned (after the results were known) "it doesn't really matter", "politics as usual", and "Pheu Thai magnanimously conceeded defeat over this totally unimportant matter".

It's interesting to see that some think the new governor should have won more votes, but without giving any reasons as to why. Just like polls before seemed to give the Pol. General a growing lead of almost epic proportions in line with the frequency Amply Rich people joined his campaign and vouched the government would seamlessly co-operate when their candidate was elected. New I think is the suggestion that some had said "no one would vote for Pongsapat"

Anyway the totally unimportant and ineffective MR Sukhumbhant has won with a very slim margin of 16.54% over a candidate who seems to reconsider this adventure in politics and may want to go back to a safe spot, like in the RTP force. If only the poor chap would have won, we would have know how good or how bad he would be for Bangkok people. Pity really

No sour grapes on my part.I was making the point about the relative insignificance of the election well before the poll.Actuallyi if eligible I would have voted for the incumbent - Didnt much like the cut of Pongsapat's jib.

Nobody would have voted for Pongsapat if the ludicrous scaremongering was taken seriously.It wasn't.

"Didnt much like the cut of Pongsapat's jib"

But you must admit he has Bette Davis eyes?

bdeye.jpgPPD.jpg

Judging from his haggard looking previous pics he's got Silvio's Berlusconi's face now too.

[ableguy]

Thaksin, how about if you just go away, and stop trying to tear Thailand apart.

Says you flashing your Stars & Stripes, the biggest interferer in world affairs today!

Another european who owes his existance to US troops.

[ableguy]

Actually I think that if the Democrats had selected a light-pole to run against Pongsapat, the pole would have won.

It's pretty obvious that Sukhumbhand wasn't the greatest candidate & the vote was more 'not PTP thank you' than yes for MRSP. Bangkokians seem to remember 2010 & that's a problem for Thaksin & his mobs.

If you think that's the message conveyed by voters so be it.However you will also have to explain why over one million Bangkok voters paid it no heed.If you argued that the election margin though relatively small was obtained by persuading some wavering voters that PTP should be penalised for the riots in 2010, that would be an argument that could be developed.However it would require an element of sophistication in analysis which as yet you have been unable to deploy.

and you are boring

[rubl]

Although it's probably a bit too early to say so, this may become a very good year for wine vinegar.

Instead of asking why the Democrats candidate didn't get more votes, it might be good to wonder about why the Pheu Thai candidate didn't get more. Various possibilities there:

- it rained heavely for a while, first time since weeks (very suspect!)
- polls led people to believe their vote was not needed (dark influence suspected!)
- there aren't more Pheu Thai supporters in Bangkok (obviously this can't be true!)
- lots of voters didn't like the PM and some Amply Rich elite surrounding Pongsapat (obviously nonsense!)
- someone kept the UDD and their members from participating (BTW where were they?)
- it's not important as the government still controls over 75% of the BMA budget (so much for seamless co-operation)

Of course one may wonder why such an unimportant event as the election of the Bangkok governor required such high-level, frequent support of our PM? What did people think about the promise of the PM to work well with her candidate when elected? What did people think about involvement of Thaksin and his kids? Why did we have such enormous number of pickups driving around promoting the Pheu Thai candidate?

There is of course an easy, obvious answer to why Pheu Thai put such effort and money into this:
because it's not important

[Bkkbound]

Given Thailands history it would seem Taksin has pushed way beyond what previous regimes would have tolerated, the mistake of the millitary coup was their failure to take him and his dynesty out of the political arena for good.Its a ridiculous state of affairs to have an ex PM, line up his relatives to act as proxy PMs, its an international joke and distorts the whole political and economic agenda.

[MAJIC]

Third, there is a remote chance that Thaksin will swallow his pride and face his legal predicament head-on in order to swiftly end his exile and bring polarisation to a close.

Before the the third possibility above it was quite a good article,but then the author of the article spoilt it all by offering a "remote chance" that Thaksin will come back and face the music,and do his jail sentence,thereby turning the article into a certainty that will not happen,not the remotest chance!

[MAJIC]

Well, first step is saying not to be involved in (Thai) politics, following with a skype session with the executive committee in Pheu Thai HQ (aka closed cabinet session). Next young Oak will discover yet another assassination complot on his father and/or Democrat MP's trying to steal rice from government stock.

While this takes place a few more groups stuffed with learned members will provide various good reasons for an amnesty of political prisoners and other well meaning people, with UDD leaders vehement on including the sentence "except for Abhisit/Suthep of course". Furthermore there is a distinct possibility that coming Songkhran our most popular fugitive will be in Laos and Cambodia again to give all people the chance to adore him, with free transport arranged including free (rice) meals.

IMHO, of course

A man like Thaksin can't possibly survive without heaps of publicity,he's getting older now,and no doubt losing his drive,and getting more and more desperate to come back to Thailand a winner. Lets all relish in the thought the longer he is away the less chance he has of returning at all,never mind a winner!

[MAJIC]

In my view he is running out of strategies,things are not going his way,and it's taking too long to achieve his ambitions.

A man like Thaksin can't possibly survive without constant publicity,he's getting older now,and is no doubt losing his drive,and getting more and more desperate to come back to Thailand a winner.And the more it's going to cost him,to buy the people,and after 2010 Bangkok,even the Red Shirts must be wandering why the riches promised to them have not materialised,and they have been used,by a lying crook.

Let's all relish in the thought, the longer he is away, the less chance he has of ever returning ,never mind a winner! and whatever strategies are left,come to nothing.

[jayboy]

Well, first step is saying not to be involved in (Thai) politics, following with a skype session with the executive committee in Pheu Thai HQ (aka closed cabinet session). Next young Oak will discover yet another assassination complot on his father and/or Democrat MP's trying to steal rice from government stock.

While this takes place a few more groups stuffed with learned members will provide various good reasons for an amnesty of political prisoners and other well meaning people, with UDD leaders vehement on including the sentence "except for Abhisit/Suthep of course". Furthermore there is a distinct possibility that coming Songkhran our most popular fugitive will be in Laos and Cambodia again to give all people the chance to adore him, with free transport arranged including free (rice) meals.

IMHO, of course

A man like Thaksin can't possibly survive without heaps of publicity,he's getting older now,and no doubt losing his drive,and getting more and more desperate to come back to Thailand a winner. Lets all relish in the thought the longer he is away the less chance he has of returning at all,never mind a winner!

Whether Thaksin returns or remains in exile has become less and less important.It was never mainly about him anyway.His significance lay in his role as a catalyst.Personally he is a rather poor strategist and in no way an admirable man.But the hatred he inspires among some can't change the reality that he has already won, by which I mean changed the political landscape of Thailand and destroyed the status quo dominated by unelected elites.Parties controlled by him have won time after time at the polls, and it is the old order that has had to adapt.

[jayboy]

Although it's probably a bit too early to say so, this may become a very good year for wine vinegar.

Instead of asking why the Democrats candidate didn't get more votes, it might be good to wonder about why the Pheu Thai candidate didn't get more. Various possibilities there:

- it rained heavely for a while, first time since weeks (very suspect!)

- polls led people to believe their vote was not needed (dark influence suspected!)

- there aren't more Pheu Thai supporters in Bangkok (obviously this can't be true!)

- lots of voters didn't like the PM and some Amply Rich elite surrounding Pongsapat (obviously nonsense!)

- someone kept the UDD and their members from participating (BTW where were they?)

- it's not important as the government still controls over 75% of the BMA budget (so much for seamless co-operation)

Of course one may wonder why such an unimportant event as the election of the Bangkok governor required such high-level, frequent support of our PM? What did people think about the promise of the PM to work well with her candidate when elected? What did people think about involvement of Thaksin and his kids? Why did we have such enormous number of pickups driving around promoting the Pheu Thai candidate?

There is of course an easy, obvious answer to why Pheu Thai put such effort and money into this:

because it's not important

It seems the reaction of PTP to defeat has disoriented you.Obviously the polls were generally very misleading.I haven't seen many signs of sour grapes nationally (or much less importantly on this forum) and in fact all sides post election have acted quite reasonably.I'm sure PTP is very disappointed but the party still dominates nationsal politics, and in any event only lost Bangkok by 200,000 votes.

As I posted before the election Bangkok is home territory for the Democrats and I predicted their win.You say the question is why the PTP didn't get more votes -really? Over a million.The Democrat leadership take a different view and wants to know why PTP made inroads in the way it did.So I'm afraid you are making a set of assumptions that don't really stand up at all.