Expert Predicts Thai Rice Pledging Scheme To Drive Market Prices Up Soon

[Mosha]

Mr. Chai Watcharong, have you ever heard John McEnroe having a discussion with an umpire? Hint is 1st question usually ended in serious.

[hellodolly]

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a long-term investment plan to boost prices in the world market and elevate farmers’ livelihood.

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Thaksin Defends Controversial Rice-Pledging Programme thread, said:

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra implemented the price-support policy to boost incomes of farming families whose support helped Pheu Thai Party win the election last year

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>rice can be stored for a long period of time

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Thaksin Defends Controversial Rice-Pledging Programme thread, said:

Thaksin said, "The programme will lead to higher government revenue through the sale of stockpiled grain"

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Mr. Chai Watcharong, an expert in agricultural economics

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maybe stick to the economics of agricultural products fighting each other:

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Chai Watcharong, a veterinarian and chairman of a Sukhothai-based network for developing and preserving indigenous roosters, said cock fighting was regarded as gambling under the existing Interior Ministry regulation. This was counter-productive and the regulation should be changed.

http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-23966568_ITM

more recently Chai is:

Chai Watcharong - Consultant of K. Thanin Jiaravanon

https://www.facebook.com/RadissonSuitesBangkokSukhumvitSoi13?group_id=0

Thanin Jiaravanon

Chairman of the Board

Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Co. Ltd.

Thailand's leading agro-industrial and food conglomerate

http://www.insideview.com/directory/charoen-pokphand-foods-public-co-ltd

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Well we all know the price of rice has to go up to match the price the PT pays for. it and the handling costs.

My question how much higher does it have to go.

Are they going to spend 16,999 baht a ton for purchasing and handling costs and sell it at 17,000 baht a ton and probably eat the shipping costs.

[bigbamboo]

I suspect the other rice producing countries, after picking themselves off the floor after a big laugh, should adapt the strategy of keeping their rice prices low, thus completely destroying Thailand as a rice producing country.

I still think this scheme is the greatest corruption ever inflicted upon Thailand, and will certainly end in a trail of tears. Sometimes I feel Thaksin's strategy is to financially destroy this country by looting it from afar, and this rice pledging is one of the main instruments. He has no intention of coming back here, too dangerous. Better to just keep looting... :-(

You could be forgiven for thinking he's still working for Hun Sen.

[waza]

I suspect the other rice producing countries, after picking themselves off the floor after a big laugh, should adapt the strategy of keeping their rice prices low, thus completely destroying Thailand as a rice producing country.

I still think this scheme is the greatest corruption ever inflicted upon Thailand, and will certainly end in a trail of tears. Sometimes I feel Thaksin's strategy is to financially destroy this country by looting it from afar, and this rice pledging is one of the main instruments. He has no intention of coming back here, too dangerous. Better to just keep looting... :-(

You could be forgiven for thinking he's still working for Hun Sen.

Well done Thaksin you have helped us sell every last grain of our rice for top dollar, filled out casinos with Thai baht, given us the disputed Temple, now when do we get to plunder the oil and gas fields in the Gulf of Cambodia together?

Edited March 13, 2013 by waza

[Locationthailand]

Ok, so now we know he is a PTP mouth piece. Another 'moronic expert'.

[Ian Curtis]

what a load, maybe if it wasnt a thai saying this we could listen but this is just bullsh*t. I wonder how much he is being paid to try to make this look good for the govt and thaksin, must be a lot if he is prepared to claim this crap.

Sounds like a good fertiliser for the next crop

[waza]

Seems the Thai rice scam is having an effect on it neighbours

Gov’t to stockpile rice in Mekong Delta

The Prime Minister has approved the purchase of one million tons of winter-spring rice from February 20 to May 20, for temporary stockpiling in the Mekong Delta.

Furthermore, the Government will cover 100 percent of interest rate on loans for businesses to buy rice for a three-month term, from February 20 to May 20. With this move, farmers in the Mekong Delta hope that rice prices will stop fluctuating or go up...........The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development is planning to build a national rice reserve of 100,000 tons to stabilize distribution and meet demand when market price fluctuates, for which a plan will be submitted to the Government............. The recent shortage of rice shows that enterprises are focused mainly on exports; in addition, the current tax policies have failed to encourage enterprises to participate in the domestic market. In the first five months of the year, the country exported more than 2.1 million tons of rice out of 2.4 million tons under signed contracts. http://www.saigon-gpdaily.com.vn/Business/2013/2/104192/

Edited March 13, 2013 by waza

[waza]

How Rice is Causing a Crisis in Thailand

After years as the world's top rice exporter, Thai PM Yingluck Shinawatra's populist policies are causing serious problems. As the elected senator of northeastern Nakhom Phanom province, Dr. Vitthaya Inala is in a difficult position.

The majority of his roughly 750,000 constituents, many of them poor paddy farmers, are in full support of a year-old government scheme that promises them 15,000 baht ($488) per ton of white rice, he says, far more than they earned in the past. “If this is a success, and poor farmers get the benefits, it will be very good for the Thai people,” says Dr. Vitthaya. Except the government’s rice-pledging policy is already proving to be a monumental failure, he adds.

Last week, the Senate Committee on Economics, Commerce and Industry, of which Dr. Vitthaya is vice-chairman, filed a damning report blaming the scheme over rampant corruption and a rising mountain of debt as big as the piles of unsold rice fill warehouses across Thailand. A populist policy that was part of the platform propelling the relative unknown Yingluck Shinawatra to power last May, the scheme now threatens to severely damage the government. Some say it could even bring the Prime Minister’s coalition down. The chairman of the central bank has already criticized the scheme – so too have academics, economists and even the U.S. department of Agriculture, the latter of whom warned of the policy’s effects on international rice prices..............A recent Senate report said public debt, which was 42.4% of GDP at the end of April, would rise by an average of 4% per year if the scheme continues, and the Prime Minister has already admitted as much.

http://thediplomat.com/2012/11/10/rice-piles-how-thailand-lost-its-spot-as-worlds-top-rice-exporter/

Edited March 13, 2013 by waza

[waza]

These experts say the complete opposite to Mr. Chai Watcharong....

LAUNCESTON, Australia: Asian rice prices are remarkably stable and unsustainably high considering the mountain of the grain that is piling up across the region.
And it's not just a Thailand story, although the government's intervention scheme certainly has resulted in record inventories building up in a country that was until last year the world's biggest rice exporter. But stockpiles are also building up in India, which may see inventories rise to more than 34 million tons this year, or about double what Thailand has in storage. The question is why are prices not falling, and rapidly, given the massive over-supply of rice, the staple food for almost two-thirds of the
world's population? Ultimately it's because the market is tighter than the supply situation would imply, but there is every chance this is starting to change and prices should start to decline.............

It's clear that Thai rice prices are being held up by the government choosing not to sell, but Vietnamese rice prices have also been stable in recent years, albeit at a discount. Vietnamese 5 percent broken rice was $ 405 a ton last week and it has been in a range between $ 345 and $ 585 since October 2008. However, recently its discount to Thai rice has widened to $ 170 a ton, the most on record, eclipsing the $ 155 a ton from January 2009. This may be a sign that Asian rice prices are finally responding to the supply glut, as the Vietnamese price is now a better indicator of market conditions than the Thai marker, which is severely distorted by the government intervention.........

Even Thailand is talking a good game on selling rice, with the authorities saying they will sell 7 million tons this year in government-to-government deals. The problem is the government suffers from a serious credibility problem over rice, with previous announcements of sales denied by the alleged buyers and traders reporting
insufficient port activity to indicate exports actually happening. However, given the intervention scheme's massive cost to Bangkok's budget, it's likely that the government will get more aggressive in trying to shift rice, even if it's economical with the truth over actual volumes and prices.
http://www.arabnews.com/economy/asia-rice-prices-look-unsustainably-high-supply-rises

[rametindallas]

World rice prices are high and stable because the World's leading exporter, Thailand, withdrew its rice from the market by pricing it too high. I'm sure India, Cambodia, Vietnam, et. al. are grateful.

When the government can no longer buy rice from farmers because it is bankrupt, where will the farmers find a market? They will have to compete with their own government's stockpile as well as other rice producing countrys. You won't be able to give rice away there will be such a glut. What is the endgame? I think Thailand will forever have to get out or the rice business and farmers will have to switch to other crops.

[MaiChai]

Thailand is going to spend $8 billion dollars on the scheme next year:unsure:

[Buchholz]

These experts say the complete opposite to Mr. Chai Watcharong....

LAUNCESTON, Australia: Asian rice prices are remarkably stable and unsustainably high considering the mountain of the grain that is piling up across the region.

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yeah, but no mention of any of them being experts raising cocks like Mr. Chai.

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Edited March 13, 2013 by Buchholz

[somtampet]

what a load, maybe if it wasnt a thai saying this we could listen but this is just bullsh*t. I wonder how much he is being paid to try to make this look good for the govt and thaksin, must be a lot if he is prepared to claim this crap.

I get rice free lol lol

[Buchholz]

World rice prices are high and stable because the World's leading exporter, Thailand, withdrew its rice from the market by pricing it too high. I'm sure India, Cambodia, Vietnam, et. al. are grateful.

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Indeed, India rice exports reported yesterday just continue to rise... solidifying its # 1 position.

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[apetley]

My wife was chatting with a guy who rents about 4 rai of paddy near our house.

This crop he is paying 2000 bht per rai to rent. A couple of years ago it was a 1000 and he has just been told the owner wants 2500 later in the year.

Last year he paid his labour between 200 and 250 bht a day. Now its 300.

Fertiliser has gone up at least 10%.

His fuel bill has gone up 20% because his water pump will not run on gasohol so he has to use 95 benzine.

The local rice mill does not pay the full 15k per ton as the local farmers are not in a postion to dry the rice themselves.

[kerrysum]

Hmmmmmmmmmm very interesting in my thought......

On my side of the globe,

They do not want the old rice....

We always look for the new crop......

They will surely be selling garbage.......

Old school from Thailand?????

We always held in stock last years crop,

Just in case, there was a falure.........

Also traded it, between people......

Sounds like a joke to me.......

kilosierra