Tough Job Ahead For Yaowapa: Thai Analysis

[webfact]

ANALYSIS
Tough job ahead for Yaowapa
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Though the ruling-Pheu Thai Party is certain it will win in the upcoming Chiang Mai by-election thanks to support from many strong factions, people in the province may be getting a bit bored of one clan holding all the power.

Amid allegations that he became a nominee overnight, former Pheu Thai Chiang Mai MP Kasem Nimmolrat's decision to throw in the towel does not come as a surprise. Kasem was originally chosen by Pheu Thai Party to contest in the election because Yaowapa Wongsawat's daughter, Chinnicha, was disqualified by the Supreme Court over allegations of providing false information about her assets. She was slapped with a five-year ban from politics and a suspended year in jail.

Before Kasem was given the go ahead, reports had it that the Shinawatra and Wongsawat clans had locked horns over who should be chosen to replace Chinnicha. Now, the clans believe that blood is thicker than water and say the MP seat in Chiang Mai, the stronghold and birthplace of the "Big Boss" Thaksin Shinawatra, should belong to a family member. This decision enraged red-shirt leader Pichit Tamool, but his demand for the party to select a candidate through votes was dismissed.

Party strategists initially chose Kasem, who is a close aide of Yaowapa and Chinnicha, as they believed that he would happily step aside once Yaowapa's own five-year ban was lifted.

Pheu Thai has a huge advantage over other parties in Chiang Mai. The city is its stronghold and it has the support of local politicians, such as the Buranupakorn family, as well as the financial strength of the Wongsawat and Shinawatra families.

Further, the red shirts have served the party at the frontlines, especially the audacious Rak Chiang Mai 51 faction led by Petcharawat Wattanapongsirikul. The Warorot Grand Palace hotel is used as their base for activities and the local 92.5 radio station is used as a tool to mobilise masses and attack opponents. DJs work in shifts to spread Pheu Thai propaganda.

Another Pheu Thai supporter is PM Yingluck Shinawatra's high-school friend, Mahawan "Nok" Kawang, who has defected from the Rak Chiang Mai 51 group and established a political group to support Pheu Thai, using local 105.5 radio station as a tool.

In addition, top officials like the governor, the police chief and Region 5 Commissioner all have close ties with Pheu Thai.

But independent academic Chamnarn Chanruang said while Chiang Mai is dominated by the Shinawatra clan, especially Constituency 3 spanning San Kamphaeng, Mae On and Doi Saket, red shirts weren't happy with the move to field Yaowapa. They want the candidate to be picked via votes.

Chamnarn said that though Yaowapa will win, she would getting fewer votes compared to Kasem last year, as many voters will chose to abstain rather than voting for the Democrat rival.

"Voters believe Yaowapa is imperious and far too confident of her victory. So, history might repeat itself and it might be like what happened with Pol General Pongsapat Pongcharoen [in the Bangkok gubernatorial race] when Pheu Thai was confident it would win even if it fielded an electricity pole in the election.

Sawing Tan-ud, director of the Social Management Institute, said some 10-15 per cent of middle-class voters did not approve of Pheu Thai's political games and might abstain from voting. "The vote abstention will not lead to a Democrat victory, as the party is not functional in Chiang Mai."


-- The Nation 2013-04-02

[Ricardo]

Red-Shirts may be unhappy, at S-Clan 'true democracy', but what will they actually do about this ?

Run their own candidate, who would stand little/no chance of winning, just to make a point ? Perhaps simply not work actively to support the PTP-candidate ?

Or roll over and take it, in the interests of party-unity, or whatever ?

At the least, they should try to use their limited-power, as a negotiating-point to try to win some useful desired concession from the Party.

[EyesWideOpen]

A bit of fighting at the feeding trough ?? How unseemly.....

But really, talk of a clan in a discussion about politics makes me ill.

This is supposed be democracy in a developed country. This is not

a group of camel herders in the desert with ancestral leaders holding

long term sway over the group. Or is it ??? :-(

[MunterHunter]

Perhaps they could stage a mass rally, with a sit in for 6 weeks or so, then burn down half of Chiang Mai when they disperse?

[chainarong]

Sad news for the Yowie one , all good news and fodder for the Dems.

[OzMick]

Members of the party want a say in selecting candidates - what's the bloody world coming to? Next they'll want a democracy instead of the current sham.

Thanks to the author for mentioning the hotel - I'll avoid it like the plague.

[siampolee]

Yet another clear signal to the Red Shirt movement that they were and are nothing more than dispensable pawns in the ongoing push to total dictatorial powers by the Thaksin clan and their brown nosing acolytes.

[rametindallas]

"red shirts weren't happy with the move to field Yaowapa. They want the candidate to be picked via votes."

The still don't have a clue that Dr. Thaksin intends to be President for Live a la Hun Sen. How thick can you be?

[ratcatcher]

A bit of fighting at the feeding trough ?? How unseemly.....

But really, talk of a clan in a discussion about politics makes me ill.

This is supposed be democracy in a developed country. This is not

a group of camel herders in the desert with ancestral leaders holding

long term sway over the group. Or is it ??? :-(

No, it's not "a group of camel herders in the desert", but it might as well be. Since the chief of this clan is Sheikh Thaksin bin Shinawat it is rather appropriate as he rules from his luxury camp in Dubai.

The clan behaves in much the same way as a desert tribe with TS as the untouchable leader.

This is supposed to be a democracy and it is. After all, the voters are told who to vote for and who not to vote for.

Twue Democwacy.

[ratcatcher]

"red shirts weren't happy with the move to field Yaowapa. They want the candidate to be picked via votes."

The still don't have a clue that Dr. Thaksin intends to be President for Live a la Hun Sen. How thick can you be?

You seem to forget that Cambodia like Thailand is a constitutional monarchy with Hun Sen as Prime Minister.

Perhaps you meant Prime Minister for life. A republic is headed by a President.

For either man to become a president some serious events must take place.

[rubl]

According to latest rumour the local red-shirt grassroot group has decided to field their favorite telephone post as candidate as they don't want to vote for the candidate forced upon them and are somewhat reluctant to vote Democrats.

The fight for democracy continues
Tongue-in-cheeky :-)

[hellodolly]

A bit of fighting at the feeding trough ?? How unseemly.....

But really, talk of a clan in a discussion about politics makes me ill.

This is supposed be democracy in a developed country. This is not

a group of camel herders in the desert with ancestral leaders holding

long term sway over the group. Or is it ??? :-(

They are working on it.

[rametindallas]

"red shirts weren't happy with the move to field Yaowapa. They want the candidate to be picked via votes."

The still don't have a clue that Dr. Thaksin intends to be President for Live a la Hun Sen. How thick can you be?

You seem to forget that Cambodia like Thailand is a constitutional monarchy with Hun Sen as Prime Minister.

Perhaps you meant Prime Minister for life. A republic is headed by a President.

For either man to become a president some serious events must take place.

I stand corrected. I should have said, "De facto President for life". On another point, there are many in the Thaksin and Red Shirt camps who would rather have a Republic with Dr. Thaksin as President.